What follows are my predictions for every week 1 game of the 2012 NFL season, together with the well thought out and expertly informed reasoning behind my decisions. Every week I will attempt to correctly guess who wins and who loses, out right and according to the spread.
If you're unfamiliar with how spread betting works, it is essentially a handicap to even the odds in otherwise one sided games.
Week 1 is an unpredictable time in the NFL, every year there are teams that come out of nowhere to shock the league with a 5-0 start, likewise there are consistent power houses who stumble seemingly randomly and lose to a massive underdog. Trust these tips though and you’ll almost probably sometimes win more than you lose.
Cowboys +3.5 @ Giants
The big opener and the day we’ve all been waiting for. Whilst I’m not hot on Eli ‘Elite’ Manning to lead the reigning champs to another divisional title and certainly not a SB, I do see Big Blue taking down their age old rivals in the primetime spotlight (but led by their defence not baby bro’s arm).
Giants -3.5
Colts +10 @ Bears
Andrew Luck’s debut versus a monstrous (or should that be beastly?) QB/WR partnership in Cutler and Marshall that looks set to terrorise defences all season. However this can only happen if the Bears' shaky O-line can keep Cutler upright long enough, and whilst Forte and Bush are nice weapons to ease that pressure off – I can see the Colts’ veteran pass rushers keeping them in the game enough for Luck to shine on his first outing, even in a tough location.
Colts +10 (Bears to win).
Eagles -9 @ Browns
With Vick already looking more banged up than Ochocinco’s wife, it could be a long season for Eagles fans as they try to live up to the ‘Dream Team’ hype that they sold this time 12 months ago.
Openers don’t come much easier than this however, and the Browns with a less than 100% Richardson, recovering from (albeit fairly minor) knee surgery, don’t look like putting up much against Philly’s all-star defence.
Eagles -9
Rams +9 @ Lions
A team with a lot to prove travelling to play one that is desperate to take the next step this year and mount a serious playoff run. With a lack of any real running game the Lions should air it out and air it out often in this encounter, and with a stellar target like Megatron to go to Stafford should lead the Lions to a comfortable victory. It’s a big spread but I bank on them just managing it.
Lions -9
Dolphins +9 @ Texans
The stars of Hard Knocks face up against the much lauded Texans with another large spread to their name.
A healthy Schaub, dangerous one-two punch of Foster and Tate, not to mention a stout defence mean the Texans should have enough to see off Tannehill and Miami. A lack of offensive weapons on the part of the visitors will put them at a big disadvantage, and I can’t see Reggie Bush carrying the team on his back in this one.
Texans -9
Falcons -1 @ Chiefs
Two fairly under-rated teams here, and with a negligible spread it really is a case of just picking a winner. Arrowhead is a tough place to go and win, but I feel like Matt Ryan will be eager to certify the predictions of the Falcon’s aerial prowess this year. This really could go either way though.
Falcons -1
Jaguars +4.5 @ Vikings
If you’d asked me to call this game a couple of weeks ago I would have put my non-existent house on the Vikings, but I am begrudgingly being won over by how much Gabbert seems to have matured over the course of the off-season. He’s looking like he could be growing into a solid QB1 for the Jags, and with new weapons in first round pick Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson coming off an impressive season with the Cowboys, even potentially lacking Mojo they could do some damage.
Meanwhile the Vikings will be easing Adrian Peterson in at the shallow end, and a good defence doesn’t out weigh a comfortable 4 ½ point margin for me.
Jags +4.5 (And to win)
Redskins +9.5 @ Saints
I’ve been defending the Saints’ chances this season post Bounty-gate to anyone who will listen, but with the second biggest spread of the week I have to go with RG3 to lead the Skins to a close run contest. Washington had a good defence last year, and whilst they are sure to give up points to Brees’ deadly offence, I bank on the 2nd overall pick to keep the Redskins just close enough.
Skins +9.5 (Saints to win)
Bills +3.0 @ Jets
The season hasn’t even begun yet and already Gang Green are on the NY media’s rack. The Bills were a surprise team for the first half of last year before losing Fred Jackson to a broken leg, and in my mind there’s no way the Jets’ have enough offensive weapons to keep pace with an aggressive Bills attack.
On the other side of the ball Mario Williams and co. should have a field day against a dicey Jets O-line. Whilst the Jets defence will bounce back from a statistically average previous season (I love the addition of hard-hitting safety Landry), it won’t be enough to make Sanchez’s defence of his starting job a pleasant start.
Bills +3.0 (And to win)
Patriots -6.5 @ Titans
Every year there’s a spread that I’m eyeing up from the moment the lines are released. Last year it was the Pats -6.5 @ Miami, this year it is New England again that provided me with my ‘SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY’ moment. Despite my initial reaction, though, there are a couple of games that could rival this for my sure fire bet of the week (SFBOTW). Brady did it for me (just) last year, and I have no doubt that they will get off to a strong start against a Locker led Titans team, even if CJ2K is looking like getting back to his old ways.
Pats -6.5
Seahawks +1 @ Cardinals
There’s a lot to like in the Seahawks this year, not least that they have 3 QBs who would probably start over the distinctly average Kolb/Skelton combo. Russell Wilson has looked electric this pre-season, and could steal the starting spot from under recent signing Flynn’s nose.
Add to this a solid running game, under rated defence and you have the makings of a team that could challenge the Niners for the NFC West crown this year. Having said that, without the backing of the 12th man this could be a tight affair, but one in which the Hawks ultimately prevail. This is a contender for SFBOTW.
Seahawks +1 (and to win)
49ers +6 @ Packers
Speaking of the 49ers, they have a nice casual start to defending their impressive 2011 campaign against only the Packers, led by ‘the best player in the NFL’.
I’ve seen a lot of reports on how the 49ers were lucky last year, how teams almost always decline after a breakout year, and how they were lucky to recover so many fumbles. Whilst I can see the logic in these arguments, they are still for me one of the most complete teams in the NFL.
Will Alex Smith turn the ball over more this year throwing it to his new targets? Almost certainly. Will they still win the West regardless? Probably. Will they beat GB in week 1? Probably not. Rodgers at Lambeau makes for one of the toughest away trips in the league (minus the odd post season blip), and the 49ers will need all their turnover ‘luck’ to have a hope. Don’t believe the ‘worst defence in the league’ stat either – GB had a ton of takeaways and gave up soft yards to teams chasing big leads last season.
Packers -6
Panthers - 2.5 @ Buccaneers
Very interesting match up here. An explosive Panthers team led by wonder boy Cam Newton against a Bucs team that has brought in everything but the kitchen sink in an effort to guarantee a more successful season.
New coaching and fresh talent will provide Tampa a lease of life this year, but I back Cam to convert some more of his close high scoring games into all important wins, and this is could be a crucial one in a tight division.
Panthers - 2.5
Steelers - 1 @ Broncos
A new season, and now double the amount of Manning-face again (thank God). How will he fare in his first start in over a year? I’ve just been told from a very unreliable source that at the time of writing, he is yet to complete a pass over 20 yards in his two pre-season games, which doesn’t bode well until you remember that pre-season is basically meaningless.
The much hyped Bronco’s defence on the other hand faces a healthy Big Ben, a lack-luster running game but potentially two very dangerous receivers (should a certain someone stop holding out for the big $$$).
This really comes down to how well Manning has managed to shake off the rust, and I’m going to err on the side of caution and the Steelers’ long harboured revenge for Tebow time in the playoffs.
Steelers -1
Bengals +5.5 @ Ravens
Can Andy ‘Red Rocket’ Dalton avoid the sophomore slump and lead the Bengals to back to back playoff appearances? It seems unlikely when you think about the Bengals of the past few years, but perhaps this could be the season in which their fortunes change. AJ Green certainly looks the real deal, and if their defence holds up then I won’t be betting against them much this year.
The Ravens on the other hand have lost their true defensive star in Suggs, and it’s only a matter of time before Lewis’ and Reed’s advancing years catch up to them. Whilst Baltimore are by no means easy pickings, I can see the Bengals pushing them hard in a game decided by a late field goal / overtime.
Bengals +5.5 (Ravens win)
Chargers -1.5 @ Raiders
***** SFBOTW! *****
Saving the best till last, this is the game I feel most confident in calling for opening week. Now I will admit to some bias as a long suffering Bolts fan, but I really can’t see this game going any other way than a Chargers’ victory.
Rivers had a tough year last season, but with the addition of Meacham and Royal to replace the loss of V-Jax, a fully healthy and rejuvenated (touch wood) Gates, plus a defence that should benefit from the new blood that has been drafted (Melvin Ingram will be a stud), there is a lot to like about this SD team in a division that is wide open for someone to claim it. Not having Mathews healthy will take the edge off in week 1, but veteran Ronnie Brown will step up.
Oakland, on the other hand, have one of the best RBs in the league in D-Mac, but also one of the most injury prone. Whilst this shouldn’t be a big issue in week 1, it is a concern down the stretch for Raiders fans (and fantasy owners).
I fully expect this to be a 40-0 Raiders blow out now I’ve said all that, but what the hell, when have the Chargers ever failed to live up to some hype, right?
Chargers -1.5
And there you have it, everything you need to know about making yourself a very rich punter in week 1, stay tuned for more updates on the gambling side of the NFL.
As always I accept full credit for any money made and zero blame when you waste your entire savings on what can’t possibly lose.
*All spreads accurate as of 25/08/2012 taken from Yahoo’s ‘Sportacular’ App*
