Week 17 was certainly an eventful one, and whilst it was a slightly damp note finishing with my worst spread this year at a pathetic 4-12 and my SFBOTW missing again, an impressive 13-3 outright did alleviate that somewhat. Best of all the impossible happened and the Chargers somehow scraped their way into the post-season.
Ultimately it was another solid year outright, finishing with 64% correct (only one game behind my record last year), and beating the vast majority of NFL network analysts.
The spread was less satisfactory at 51% (compared to 55% last season) and whilst it is still encouraging to be (just) in the positive, it is a sign of how much less football I've been able to properly watch this year that I've slipped that little bit.
My sure fire bets were again pretty much consistent with the rest of my predicting, showing that my best guesses are just as good (or bad) as my less confident ones.
In the post-season last year I put on a Flacco-esque clutch performance, only getting one outright wrong, so let's hope I can match that this year...
Week 17:
Outright = 13-3
Spread = 4-12
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 165-92
Spread = 129-124-4
SFBOTW = 9-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 331-183
Spread = 269-238-7
SFBOTW = 17-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Season Trends:
Before we move on to the post-season let's peer into how the year went in more detail. All season I've been keeping track of who I bet on and the consequences - not to try and straighten out any personal leanings but simply as it turns up some amusing and intriguing tendencies.
Each team has 2 scores - the for/against (how often I was right/wrong totalled up) and the backed total (how many times I backed them/went against them).
Top 3 Least Accurate Teams:
The teams I found the least reliable. Hang your heads in shame!
Last year's winner: Carolina (-8).
T3. Bills / Patriots (-6)
An AFC East duo in at number 3, both of which I was on the fence on all year. Both team's injuries no doubt played a part, but for the most part I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
The Bengals were inconsistent in real life, so it's no surprise I found it hard to pin them down on the spread. I trended towards backing them at +4, but it was the times I went against them that hurt me. All 6 times I picked their opponents they failed to beat the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-14)
-14... there are no words, that's almost double how bad I was for Carolina last year. To put it in perspective, it equates to me only picking the correct spread in a Saints game ONCE all year. That's 15 times where I got it wrong. I slightly favoured them at +2, but clearly I was just not on the pulse. I blame their inconsistent away form, and the fact I didn't pick up on it.
Top 3 Most Accurate Teams:
My gold stars of consistency go to the following...
Last year's winner: Tennessee (+10)
3. Chiefs / Giants / Raiders (+6)
A three way tie grabs my bronze medal, KC due to their consistent winning ways - NY and Oakland due to the opposite (happily coinciding with my well established bias against their franchises).
2. Green Bay Packers (+8)
Slightly surprising to see the Packers this high, when they've had what is really a very pedestrian season especially with Rodgers going down. I trended slightly away from them at -2, and was more successful when backing their opponents. Perhaps I cottoned on to their fall from grace earlier than most? Or maybe I was just lucky.
1. Tennessee Titans (+10)
Yes Tennessee. Words cannot say how much I am loving seeing them repeat as my most consistent team. Not only that, but they've perfectly matched their winning score from last year. I have no particular affinity for this franchise (I sat on the fence all year finishing at exactly 0), but they are fast carving out a massive soft spot in my gambling heart. I need to make sure I don't let this colour my view of them for next year - I want to see them back here in 12 months time more than you can imagine.
Most Disregarded Teams:
Those I've backed the least this season, justified?
Last year's winner: Miami (-14)
T2. Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh (-10)
Cleveland (-2 F/A) and Houston (+3 F/A) can be written off as two terrible teams that I didn't shy away from leaning away from. Pittsburgh (0 F/A) was the same early one but I failed to pick up on their change of fortunes until it was too late.
1. New York Giants (-12)
As mentioned earlier, the Giants (+6) sucking was fortunate, as I'd have probably gone against them lot anyway. As it was I finished with a solid positive total on the beleaguered NFC East franchise, only backing them twice and both times hitting on the rare occasions they broke the spread.
BFFs:
Teams I couldn't help myself but keep backing all season - whether it was based on form or band-wagoning I'll let you decide.
Last year's winner: Indianapolis (+14)
2. Cardinals / Chiefs (+6)
I'm not terribly surprised to see either of these two here, and with positive records for both KC (+6) and 'Zona (+2) in terms of for/against I was right to have faith in them. With both
1. Colts / Chargers (+10)
A tie, with (you've guessed it) SD vying with Indy for my most favoured team. I'm not really sure why I've backed the Colts (-2) so much 2 years running (I'm always the one arguing against Luck in the ol' which amazing young QB is the most amazing debate), but you can't argue with statistics. I shouldn't have been so bullish on them as it put me in the negative, but it is interesting that the 3 times I did go against them they beat the spread. Not really a surprise to see the Chargers (0 F/A) here, I'm just happy my bias didn't put me in the negative on them.
Wildcard Predictions
Saturday Evening
Chiefs @ Colts -2.5
The Colts stomped the Chiefs in the regular season a few weeks ago, but with KC effectively coming off a bye week they will be well rested and ready to roll here. I love what Andy Reid has done with this team, and they have more quality than the Colts in almost every position bar QB. I think they have this.
The spread sweetens the pot.
Chiefs +2.5 (and to win)
Saturday Night
Saints @ Eagles -2.5
NO are forced to travel to brave the elements and face Chip Kelly's Eagles, thanks to the latter's dramatic victory over Dallas. As we've all seen, the Saints do not fare well on the road, and the Eagles could carve a deep path in the post-season with their explosive style of offence. I'm going Philly.
The spread doesn't sway me.
Eagles -2.5
Sunday Evening
Chargers @Bengals -7
Somehow the Chargers have snuck in, and I'm over the moon. Especially as this is one of the easier wild card match ups they could have asked for as a #6 seed. This Cincy squad has some playoff experience now, but unfortunately it all involves being one and done. Now, I know the Chargers' struggled to beat KC's backups in the week just gone, but it's easier to imagine how that performance can happen with emotions riding high following the news of the early games. I'm willing to bet if they had played at 6pm it would have been a very different game, and I think SD bring the dangerous offence and opportunistic defence that we saw against Denver into Cincy, and steal a playoff victory.
The spread is big, so obviously I'm lapping it up.
Chargers +7 (and to win) SFBOTW
49ers @ Packers +2.5
Another great game to close out the wild card round, and a rematch of last year where Kaep ran roughshod over the Pack. A lot has changed since then, and this should be a much more even affair, especially with both teams getting key injured personnel back just in time. I like SF to grab this, but it could definitely go either way.
The spread is small, but I think SF should win by a fg.
SF -2.5
Tuesday, 31 December 2013
Thursday, 26 December 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 17
A very solid week at 10-6 on both the spread and the outright, and that's with a fair few upsets from the likes of Buffalo over Miami. The only blemish was my (less than) SFBOTW, which got blown out of the water by about 30 minutes into the first wave.
Here we go, week 17 of the regular season, and the last time we'll see most of these teams in real action until September... Truly there will be some post-Christmas blues for a lot of fans after survival Sunday, and I'm holding out hope I won't be one of them.
Week 16:
Outright = 10-6
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 152-89
Spread = 125-112-4
SFBOTW = 9-7
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 318-180
Spread = 265-226-7
SFBOTW = 17-15-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Sunday First Wave
Panthers @ Falcons -6
An impressive clutch performance from Cam Newton sends the Panthers to the playoffs, but they won't want to let up now against a Falcons team that despite being down and out so very nearly spoiled the 49ers' perfect Candlestick send off. Clearly unless they rest players they aren't in much danger of losing this game.
The spread is large but seeing as Carolina are playing to improve their seeding, I doubt they'll let up.
Panthers -6
Ravens @ Bengals -6
Big game in the AFC, and undoubtedly bigger for Baltimore who could easily make the playoffs with a win here. It gets a little complicated, as they have tie breakers over both SD and Miami individually, but not if both those teams win (then Miami would go through). Needless to say, winning here will be their only focus, but against a Bengals team that still has a (albeit slim) hope of improving their seeding, it won't be an easy game. To make matters worse, Flacco injured his knee in their big loss to NE, and whilst he'll be fine to start it could limit him somewhat. I'm expecting a close game which Cincy squeeze.
The spread is large enough for me to flip this.
Ravens +6 (Bengals to win)
Jaguars @ Colts -11.5
The only thing on the line here is the Colts' seeding, so whilst it is a meaningless game in most regards they'll still be eager to avoid slipping up against their divisional foes. Despite the Jaguars' continued improvement, I'm not expecting any shocks here.
The spread is a biggie, so I'll turn this over.
Jaguars +11.5 (Colts to win)
Jets @ Dolphins -6
Another crucial game in the AFC wildcard hunt, as mentioned above the Dolphins need a win here and some here to make the post-season, but they have likely the easiest shot out of the four contenders which a relatively soft match-up and more importantly a tie-breaker over San Diego. Having said that, the Jets are not going to be a walkover - what with Tannehill also going down in the Bills game (in which they played very poorly regardless) and Rex Ryan effectively coaching for his job. Tannehill should still play, but like Flacco he could be hobbled, so I'm still expecting a Dolphins win and January football for Miami.
The spread is big enough that I think the Jets could close it, and to be honest I'm rooting hard that they manage to pull this off.
Jets +6 (Dolphins win)
Lions @ Vikings -3
Oh dear Detroit, losing like that to the Giants was poor, and Jim Swartz looks like he'll (finally) to looking for a new job. Whoever takes over the Lions will be in a great position to win with a roster loaded with talent. The play of Stafford is a concern, and I could easily see them coming in with battered morale and losing to a Vikings side that has beaten the likes of Philly at home in recent weeks. In a game with nothing to play for, Minnesota have more pride right now.
The spread is only 3 points but as I'm expecting a close run thing I'll hedge my bets.
Lions +3 (Vikings to win)
Redskins @ Giants -3.5
A meaningless game in terms of the playoffs, but I'm sure the Skins and Giants won't see it that way. Last year's game was a cracking match up with an electric finish, but both these outfits have fallen a long way since then. I'm expecting both offences to find the endzone fairly often, and this could go either way. I'll take the Redskins to clinch it, as going against the Giants has worked so often for me this year.
The spread definitely cements my opinion.
Redskins +3.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Steelers -7
The Steelers CAN still make the playoffs, somehow, but they'll need a win here plus losses from Miami, SD and Balimore. Stranger things have happened, and I can definitely see them taking care of their own business here. Cleveland are more than capable of making things interesting, but Pittsburgh shouldn't really be losing this at home.
The spread is hefty enough to swing me.
Browns +7 (Steelers win)
Texans @ Titans -7
A thoroughly pointless game which will only decide draft order, and I don't expect a solid Titans side to lose here with the Texans already more focused on scouting Bridgewater than they are Fitzpatrick.
The spread is decent but I think they'll cover at home.
Titans -7
Sunday Second Wave
Packers @ Chicago +3
The Packers really need to declare Rodgers' status sooner as it's been screwing my predictions for too long long. That said, I fully expect him to play now - either side will win the division with a victory here and unless there are serious complications in the healing process there's not reason he wouldn't play through a bit of pain.
UPDATE - A-rod set to play, the Pack have this.
I'll try and remember to update this, but if not give me the Packers to win with whatever the spread is.
Packers -3
Bills @ Patriots -8.5
Signature wins for both these two teams, and it's hard to say who's was the more impressive. The Bills are playing for pride here, but the Pats are fighting to win the #1 seed in the AFC. I don't expect Buffalo to match last week's performance away from home, but nor do I think NE will maintain their level of play from last week either. I'm expecting a Patriots win, but not by anything too gaudy.
Large spread which I think the Bills will just sneak.
Bills +8.5 (Patriots to win)
Buccaneers @ Saints -13
The Saints must be kicking themselves for not closing out the game last week, and now have a fight on their hands to still make the playoffs. Luckily they hold the tie-breaker over Arizona, so just need to win here to lock up their wild card spot. Shouldn't even be in question, right?
They have been on fire at home, but 13 is huge.
Buccaneers +13 (Saints to win)
49ers @ Cardinals -1
SF avoided an awkward loss to Atlanta thanks to an incredible play from Bowman, and now have the pressure off them coming into this very tough game. As it is, with a win here and a Seahawks loss and they would still win the division, so they won't be resting on their laurels. As for 'Zona, they need to rely on the Buccs as well as a win here in order to trump the Saints and sneak in. Whilst the former looks unlikely, I can definitely see them winning here against a 49ers side that despite the result did not play well last week.
The spread is negligible.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Raiders +13
Denver need to win here to avoid losing the top seed to NE, so they shouldn't be resting anyone unless they rack up a big lead (which is far from out of the question). They bounced back and then some from their loss to SD with a big, record setting, win over the Titans, the Raiders struggled in a ugly, flag strewn, loss to the Chargers. This is only going one way.
The spread is large, and due to the fact Denver could pull Manning, giving me some insurance if it starts getting out of hand, I think Oakland could cover.
Raiders +13 (Broncos to win)
Rams @ Seahawks -10.5
Arizona did the seemingly impossible and handed Wilson his first ever loss at home, despite Palmer handing the home side plenty of chances to take the game. Whilst the loss was bound to happen eventually, the struggles on the interior of Seattle's offensive line can not be glossed over. I still expect the 'Hawks to win here and carve a path deep into the playoffs, but fans will be very wary of a performance like that when it can really hurt them. The Rams are more than capable of giving their hosts problems with one of the best pass rushes in the league, so this could be another close one.
The spread is large enough for me to side with St. Louis.
Rams +10.5 (Seahawks to win)
Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5
The last crucial AFC game to be played. The Chargers will know prior to kick off whether the Jets and Bengals have given them a chance to make the playoffs, and with the Chiefs likely resting starters this should be a game they win, even if it is futile endeavour due to the earlier results.
Big spread, and whoever is playing for KC will be eager to crush the Chargers' hopes should they get the results they need, or take advantage of lacklustre morale if there turns out to be nothing to play for.
Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)
Sunday Night
Eagles @ Cowboys +6.5
The game that will decide the East, loser goes home. It's a real shame for the league that Romo got hurt last week, as this would have been a great game with him under centre. As it is, this should turn out to be fairly one-sided. The Eagles score at will and the Cowboys' defence is going to have a long day unless they can score early and often themselves.
Even with the spread, Kyle Orton is not going to be up to keeping pace.
Eagles -6.5 SFBOTW
Here we go, week 17 of the regular season, and the last time we'll see most of these teams in real action until September... Truly there will be some post-Christmas blues for a lot of fans after survival Sunday, and I'm holding out hope I won't be one of them.
Week 16:
Outright = 10-6
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 152-89
Spread = 125-112-4
SFBOTW = 9-7
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 318-180
Spread = 265-226-7
SFBOTW = 17-15-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Sunday First Wave
Panthers @ Falcons -6
An impressive clutch performance from Cam Newton sends the Panthers to the playoffs, but they won't want to let up now against a Falcons team that despite being down and out so very nearly spoiled the 49ers' perfect Candlestick send off. Clearly unless they rest players they aren't in much danger of losing this game.
The spread is large but seeing as Carolina are playing to improve their seeding, I doubt they'll let up.
Panthers -6
Ravens @ Bengals -6
Big game in the AFC, and undoubtedly bigger for Baltimore who could easily make the playoffs with a win here. It gets a little complicated, as they have tie breakers over both SD and Miami individually, but not if both those teams win (then Miami would go through). Needless to say, winning here will be their only focus, but against a Bengals team that still has a (albeit slim) hope of improving their seeding, it won't be an easy game. To make matters worse, Flacco injured his knee in their big loss to NE, and whilst he'll be fine to start it could limit him somewhat. I'm expecting a close game which Cincy squeeze.
The spread is large enough for me to flip this.
Ravens +6 (Bengals to win)
Jaguars @ Colts -11.5
The only thing on the line here is the Colts' seeding, so whilst it is a meaningless game in most regards they'll still be eager to avoid slipping up against their divisional foes. Despite the Jaguars' continued improvement, I'm not expecting any shocks here.
The spread is a biggie, so I'll turn this over.
Jaguars +11.5 (Colts to win)
Jets @ Dolphins -6
Another crucial game in the AFC wildcard hunt, as mentioned above the Dolphins need a win here and some here to make the post-season, but they have likely the easiest shot out of the four contenders which a relatively soft match-up and more importantly a tie-breaker over San Diego. Having said that, the Jets are not going to be a walkover - what with Tannehill also going down in the Bills game (in which they played very poorly regardless) and Rex Ryan effectively coaching for his job. Tannehill should still play, but like Flacco he could be hobbled, so I'm still expecting a Dolphins win and January football for Miami.
The spread is big enough that I think the Jets could close it, and to be honest I'm rooting hard that they manage to pull this off.
Jets +6 (Dolphins win)
Lions @ Vikings -3
Oh dear Detroit, losing like that to the Giants was poor, and Jim Swartz looks like he'll (finally) to looking for a new job. Whoever takes over the Lions will be in a great position to win with a roster loaded with talent. The play of Stafford is a concern, and I could easily see them coming in with battered morale and losing to a Vikings side that has beaten the likes of Philly at home in recent weeks. In a game with nothing to play for, Minnesota have more pride right now.
The spread is only 3 points but as I'm expecting a close run thing I'll hedge my bets.
Lions +3 (Vikings to win)
Redskins @ Giants -3.5
A meaningless game in terms of the playoffs, but I'm sure the Skins and Giants won't see it that way. Last year's game was a cracking match up with an electric finish, but both these outfits have fallen a long way since then. I'm expecting both offences to find the endzone fairly often, and this could go either way. I'll take the Redskins to clinch it, as going against the Giants has worked so often for me this year.
The spread definitely cements my opinion.
Redskins +3.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Steelers -7
The Steelers CAN still make the playoffs, somehow, but they'll need a win here plus losses from Miami, SD and Balimore. Stranger things have happened, and I can definitely see them taking care of their own business here. Cleveland are more than capable of making things interesting, but Pittsburgh shouldn't really be losing this at home.
The spread is hefty enough to swing me.
Browns +7 (Steelers win)
Texans @ Titans -7
A thoroughly pointless game which will only decide draft order, and I don't expect a solid Titans side to lose here with the Texans already more focused on scouting Bridgewater than they are Fitzpatrick.
The spread is decent but I think they'll cover at home.
Titans -7
Sunday Second Wave
Packers @ Chicago +3
The Packers really need to declare Rodgers' status sooner as it's been screwing my predictions for too long long. That said, I fully expect him to play now - either side will win the division with a victory here and unless there are serious complications in the healing process there's not reason he wouldn't play through a bit of pain.
UPDATE - A-rod set to play, the Pack have this.
I'll try and remember to update this, but if not give me the Packers to win with whatever the spread is.
Packers -3
Bills @ Patriots -8.5
Signature wins for both these two teams, and it's hard to say who's was the more impressive. The Bills are playing for pride here, but the Pats are fighting to win the #1 seed in the AFC. I don't expect Buffalo to match last week's performance away from home, but nor do I think NE will maintain their level of play from last week either. I'm expecting a Patriots win, but not by anything too gaudy.
Large spread which I think the Bills will just sneak.
Bills +8.5 (Patriots to win)
Buccaneers @ Saints -13
The Saints must be kicking themselves for not closing out the game last week, and now have a fight on their hands to still make the playoffs. Luckily they hold the tie-breaker over Arizona, so just need to win here to lock up their wild card spot. Shouldn't even be in question, right?
They have been on fire at home, but 13 is huge.
Buccaneers +13 (Saints to win)
49ers @ Cardinals -1
SF avoided an awkward loss to Atlanta thanks to an incredible play from Bowman, and now have the pressure off them coming into this very tough game. As it is, with a win here and a Seahawks loss and they would still win the division, so they won't be resting on their laurels. As for 'Zona, they need to rely on the Buccs as well as a win here in order to trump the Saints and sneak in. Whilst the former looks unlikely, I can definitely see them winning here against a 49ers side that despite the result did not play well last week.
The spread is negligible.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Raiders +13
Denver need to win here to avoid losing the top seed to NE, so they shouldn't be resting anyone unless they rack up a big lead (which is far from out of the question). They bounced back and then some from their loss to SD with a big, record setting, win over the Titans, the Raiders struggled in a ugly, flag strewn, loss to the Chargers. This is only going one way.
The spread is large, and due to the fact Denver could pull Manning, giving me some insurance if it starts getting out of hand, I think Oakland could cover.
Raiders +13 (Broncos to win)
Rams @ Seahawks -10.5
Arizona did the seemingly impossible and handed Wilson his first ever loss at home, despite Palmer handing the home side plenty of chances to take the game. Whilst the loss was bound to happen eventually, the struggles on the interior of Seattle's offensive line can not be glossed over. I still expect the 'Hawks to win here and carve a path deep into the playoffs, but fans will be very wary of a performance like that when it can really hurt them. The Rams are more than capable of giving their hosts problems with one of the best pass rushes in the league, so this could be another close one.
The spread is large enough for me to side with St. Louis.
Rams +10.5 (Seahawks to win)
Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5
The last crucial AFC game to be played. The Chargers will know prior to kick off whether the Jets and Bengals have given them a chance to make the playoffs, and with the Chiefs likely resting starters this should be a game they win, even if it is futile endeavour due to the earlier results.
Big spread, and whoever is playing for KC will be eager to crush the Chargers' hopes should they get the results they need, or take advantage of lacklustre morale if there turns out to be nothing to play for.
Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)
Sunday Night
Eagles @ Cowboys +6.5
The game that will decide the East, loser goes home. It's a real shame for the league that Romo got hurt last week, as this would have been a great game with him under centre. As it is, this should turn out to be fairly one-sided. The Eagles score at will and the Cowboys' defence is going to have a long day unless they can score early and often themselves.
Even with the spread, Kyle Orton is not going to be up to keeping pace.
Eagles -6.5 SFBOTW
Wednesday, 18 December 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 16
Week 15 was a strange one, on the one hand I was 8-8 in outrights, and there weren't THAT many huge upsets, on the other I tied my best ever spread rate with 11-5, and nailed my SFBOTW thanks to the Chiefs riding roughshod over Oakland.
Week 16 looks like a tough one, but we need to make the most of it... football season is almost over *sad face*
Week 15:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 11-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 142-83
Spread = 115-106-4
SFBOTW = 9-6
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 308-174
Spread = 255-220-7
SFBOTW = 17-14-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Saints +3 (and to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Cardinals +10.5 (Seahawks win)
Eagles -3
Week 16 looks like a tough one, but we need to make the most of it... football season is almost over *sad face*
Week 15:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 11-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 142-83
Spread = 115-106-4
SFBOTW = 9-6
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 308-174
Spread = 255-220-7
SFBOTW = 17-14-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
No Thursday Night football this season, more's the pity. I know most players hate it, but it sure is a nice little midweek treat.
Sunday First Wave
Dolphins @ Bills +2.5
The obvious choice here is Miami. Their win at the weekend over NE puts them in a great position to make the post-season with a much easier schedule than Baltimore. They should handle the Bills here to bolster their wildcard bid, but I wouldn't be shocked if Buffalo sprung an upset coming off a road win.
The spread is small enough for me to stick with the 'Phins, but I have my doubts.
Dolphins -2.5
Saints @ Panthers -3
Very interesting to the see the Panthers the favourites in this one after the way their last encounter played out. Whilst I'm expecting a much more back and forth game in this one, I still think New Orleans will take it.
The spread sweetens the deal.
Saints +3 (and to win)
Vikings @ Bengals -7.5
The Vikings impressed in their victory over Philly, whereas the Bengals lost out to a much more physical performance from Pittsburgh (I'm not just talking about that punt). I like the Bengals to grab this one, but it should be a close affair.
The spread makes this a fairly easy decision.
Vikings +7.5 (Bengals to win) SFBOTW, I guess...
Broncos @ Texans +10.5
This should be an open and shut case, all things considered. Despite their slip up to SD, Denver are still one of the very best teams in the football. Houston are not.
Ooh. Big spread but I'm expecting a Broncos team eager to wash the bad taste out of their mouth.
Broncos -10.5
Titans @ Jaguars +5.5
Divisional clash that will be a lot tighter than it would have been near the beginning of the season. Jacksonville are definitely on the right track even given their narrow loss to the Bills, whereas the Titans despite a close game lost out at home to 'Zona. I like Tennessee to win, but it is anyone's game.
The spread makes me favour the Jags here.
Jaguars +5.5 (Titans win)
Colts @ Chiefs -7
Kansas City just torched the Raiders thanks to a career day from Jamaal Charles. Now, I'm not expecting another performance like that from the stud RB (sorry fantasy owners), but he, and the Chiefs, should still put on a decent show versus a very hit and miss Colts outfit.
The spread is very attainable for the Colts, who just kerb stomped the Texans.
Colts +7 (Chiefs to win)
Browns @ Jets -2.5
Eww. This is not a fun game to call, not even a little bit. Both of these teams just lost in fairly close games to better teams, but really we're scraping the NFL's barrel here. I guess I'll side with home side, all other things being basically equal. The Jets' big boys up front should force the Browns to throw, which is always entertaining (not that NY are much better in that department).
The spread is so small I'll stick with the Jets.
Jets -2.5
Buccaneers @ Rams -5.5
Interesting one, as the Rams shocked the Saints last week. I like the home side to continue their high level of play and hand Tampa another loss here, but I wouldn't be shocked if this went the other way.
The spread is moderate, but I'll stick with St. Louis.
Rams -5.5
Cowboys @ Redskins +2.5
The Cowboys at 7-7 still have a very good shot at winning their division with Philly's loss last week, even despite their own derptastic handing of the game to GB. Likely (and hopefully for those who are fans of watching Romo do Romo things) it will come down to their week 17 grudge match with the Eagles to decide the winner, but they'll need to win here first. Cousins looked pretty impressive against Atlanta, and shouldn't have a hard time in getting points versus a pathetic Cowboys' defence. Unfotunately the Skins aren't playing much better and are facing a dangerous offence. This will probably come down to who screws up the least, and Romo will save it all for when the world is watching next weekend.
The spread is, again, small enough to not have an impact for me.
Cowboys -2.5
Sunday Second Wave
Giants @ Lions -8.5
The Ravens really TUCKed (sorry) into the Lions' playoff hopes in a crushing loss on Monday, but luckily for them they're facing maybe the worst team in football right now. The Giants are just plain bad, with Eli frantically chasing the single season interception record. I actually fear for his life facing the Lions d-line behind some of the worst pass protection in football.
The spread is big, but NY are this bad.
Lions -8.5
Cardinals @ Seahawks -10.5
Divisional game which the Cards could really do with a win from to stay in the wildcard hunt (right now sitting just behind SF and Carolina). Despite their obvious quality they are playing in the one place you do not want to. Seattle haven't lost at home yet under Wilson, and they likely won't start now.
Big spread which swings me over.
Cardinals +10.5 (Seahawks win)
Steelers @ Packers NO SPREAD
Tough one to predict in advance with Rodgers questionable. I'll tentatively say he suits up this week, and the Packers win. Even with Flynn they have a good chance at home, the Steelers are getting back to their old selves but aren't as good as a sloppy Bengals' performance last week made them appear.No spread whilst we are on A-Rod watch, I'll update this later on, but give me the Packers whatever the spread is in case I forget.
Patriots @ Ravens -2.5
Big loss for the Patriots and they'll be keen to get back on track, but it won't be an easy game against a Ravens' squad just heating up at the right time (sounds familiar). They'll need to actually score some touchdowns to beat the Pats though, and I think NE will scrape this one and make life difficult for Baltimore in terms of the post-season.
The spread is an added incentive.
Patriots +2.5 (and to win)
Raiders @ Chargers -10
This game earlier in the season was the Chargers worst performance in a season of brutally narrow losses. They're basically out of the playoff hunt now as even with a 9-7 finish they are behind on tie-breakers to Miami and Baltimore. Coming off their massive and unexpected win @ Denver, they should handle a battered Raiders' squad comfortably.
The spread is big, and initially I was very tempted to take the Raiders, but I think the Chargers have improved massively since the last time they played.
Chargers -10
Sunday Night
Bears @ Eagles -3
The Eagles will be desperate to win this and put themselves out in front in the East following their slip up @ Minnesota, and even with Cutler back I think they have a very good chance at home. This should be a close one but one they are more than capable of putting away.
The spread doesn't swing me.
Eagles -3
Monday Night
Falcons @ 49ers -13
The Niners aren't home and dry yet, and need to win here to better secure their wildcard spot. Fortunately they're hosting Atlanta, so this shouldn't even be in question.
Spread is large so I'll flip this.
Falcons +13 (49ers win)
Thursday, 12 December 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 15
Week 14 was very solid at 11-5 outright and 9-7 on the spread for a second week in row, if I keep this going it will be a very respectable finish. Unfortunately my SFBOTW lost for a second week running, so there's that.
Week 15... just 3 games left in the NFL regular season (sniff), but the consolation is we have some great match ups to look forward to.
Week 14:
Outright = 11-5
Spread = 9-7
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 134-75
Spread = 104-101-4
SFBOTW = 8-6
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 289-161
Spread = 235-208
SFBOTW = 16-14-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Chargers @ Broncos -10.5 Sky Sports 1
Oh baby, the big one. A win here for San Diego could be the start of a wild card push, a loss will see them out of the running barring some real luck. If this was a week or two nearer the end of the season the Broncos could consider resting Manning ahead of the playoffs, but it is still too early to think that would be the case here. The short week won't do Peyton's bum ankle any favours, but even despite that and the must win implications for San Diego I can't see them pulling off the upset here.
The spread, as they say, changes everything. In a Thursday night divisional game with everything on the line I like SD to push them within 10.5.
Chargers +10.5 (Broncos to win)
Sunday First Wave
Redskins @ Falcons -7
With the Redskins potentially benching RG3 for the rest of the season to avoid injuries in meaningless games, it is going to be hard for them to motivate themselves for this one. Even though the Falcons don't have much to play for themselves, and the Cousins factor could be a wild card, I think Atlanta have this one.
The spread is fairly hefty, so I think I'm going to flip flop over to the 'Skins here.
Redskins +7 (Falcons to win)
Bears @ Browns +1
Chicago comfortably handled the Cowboys last week, whereas the Browns blew a huge lead in their loss to NE. Even in Cleveland I like the Bears to pull this one off, even with Josh Gordon having the kind of year that proves he belongs on any team but this one.
Negligible spread is negligible.
Bears -1
Texans @ Colts -5.5
The Texans lost to Jacksonville, and will likely have the 1st overall pick in April. Pretty shocking stuff, and right now they are probably more concerned with their coaching situation than travelling to play their divisional rivals. All this means that I can't see them pulling off a result here, even if Indy have fallen off the pace a lot in recent weeks.
The spread is meaty but nothing they can't handle at home. I repeat, Houston just lost to the Jags.
Colts -5.5
Bills @ Jaguars +2
Despite what the above might indicate, I'm not suggesting the last few weeks have been just down to their opponents ineptitude. Jax are actually performing quite well, not well enough to make any difference at this late stage, or keep Henne his job, but just well enough to play themselves out of the top pick. Good job guys, you can't even tank a season properly. I think they continue that trend here against a very lack-luster Buffalo squad.
Again, a paltry spread that only provides a light seasoning.
Jaguars +2 (and to win)
Patriots @ Dolphins +2 Sky Sports 2
Ruh roh. The Patriots have lost Gronk. Terrible news for NE fans, and it's really quite amazing how they have gone from having the best TE situation in the league to one of the worst, all in a matter of months. All that aside, I still think they'll win against Miami in a crux divisional game that should see them lock up the division and send the Dolphins' playoff hopes back a notch.
Small spread changes nada.
Patriots -2
Eagles @ Vikings +4.5
Philly overcame both the Lions and some crazy weather to grab another win last week. At this point it's looking like they are going to steal the divisional title away from Dallas, even if Foles has finally hoisted his first INT. The Vikings aren't to be trifled with though, especially after their thrillingly close loss last week, but I still think the Eagles have enough here.
The spread does give me some cause for concern, but I like their offence to get back on track with the return of more hospitable conditions.
Eagles -4.5
Seahawks @ Giants +7
Seattle ran the Niners close, but ultimately lost out, showing once again they are a far weaker team on the road than in the cacophonous Century Link field. The Giants however, also suffered a nasty defeat on the West Coast to the Chargers, and really there is only one way this one is going. Seattle's defence are going to have a field day and I'm expecting at least 3 picks from Eli.
Large spread but nothing they can't handle.
Seattle -7
49ers @ Buccaneers +5
Coming off their crucial win over Seattle, the Niners should be more than the Buccs can handle. That said, Tampa having improved dramatically from their early season woes and stranger things have happened...
The spread is fair, I still like the Niners to beat it though.
49ers -5
Sunday Second Wave
Jets @ Panthers -11
The Jets were impressive against the Raiders, whereas the Panthers looked lost at times in New Orleans. Of course, this will be a much easier test for the home side here, and I expect them to win very comfortably.
11 points is perhaps a little too rich even for me. Will the Panthers win? Almost certainly, but I'm not convinced it will be that clear cut.
Jets +11 (Panthers to win)
Chiefs @ Raiders +4
The Chiefs just single handedly (well maybe not, but they were the final straw) benched RG3 for the rest of the year. The Raiders just made the Jets look good. This is only going one way, even in Oakland.
The spread is nowhere near enough, rolling hard with this bad boy.
Chiefs -4 SFBTOW
Saints @ Rams +6
New Orleans showed up Carolina at home, but even with Clemons under center the Rams won't be pushovers. I do like the Saints to win this going off their ridiculously good form though.
The spread makes this interesting. Very loath to call this either way but will have to side with the Saints here.
Saints -6
Cardinals @ Titans +2.5
Nice match up here between two teams both on the outside of playoff hopes. I like Arizona to come in and win this one, the Titans have fallen off the pace recently and the Cards have been putting together some very solid performances.
2.5 doesn't make me balk much.
Cardinals -2.5
Packers @ Cowboys +7 Sky Sports 2
The Cowboys' defence got absolutely shredded by the Bears, something they must be getting used to after their recent performances. Their offence is still deadly though, and with Rodgers and Lacy both questionable to play this could swing either way. I'll side with the home team to grab a tight win here.
The spread is large enough to assuage any doubts.
Cowboys +7 (and to win)
Sunday Night
Bengals @ Steelers +2.5
Divisional game, but the Steelers' playoff hopes were basically dashed by a large toe last week. The Bengals however need to win the hold off the Ravens, and that's exactly what they'll do here.
The spread doesn't scare me.
Bengals -2.5
Monday Night
Ravens @ Lions -6
Big Monday night game in which both desperately need a win. This should be a classic shootout, with both teams operating at a high level, especially with the return of Pitta bolstering Baltimore's passing options. I like the Lions to grab the W here, but it should be a close one.
The spread is enough to swing me.
Ravens +6 (Lions win)
Week 15... just 3 games left in the NFL regular season (sniff), but the consolation is we have some great match ups to look forward to.
Week 14:
Outright = 11-5
Spread = 9-7
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 134-75
Spread = 104-101-4
SFBOTW = 8-6
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 289-161
Spread = 235-208
SFBOTW = 16-14-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Chargers @ Broncos -10.5 Sky Sports 1
Oh baby, the big one. A win here for San Diego could be the start of a wild card push, a loss will see them out of the running barring some real luck. If this was a week or two nearer the end of the season the Broncos could consider resting Manning ahead of the playoffs, but it is still too early to think that would be the case here. The short week won't do Peyton's bum ankle any favours, but even despite that and the must win implications for San Diego I can't see them pulling off the upset here.
The spread, as they say, changes everything. In a Thursday night divisional game with everything on the line I like SD to push them within 10.5.
Chargers +10.5 (Broncos to win)
Sunday First Wave
Redskins @ Falcons -7
With the Redskins potentially benching RG3 for the rest of the season to avoid injuries in meaningless games, it is going to be hard for them to motivate themselves for this one. Even though the Falcons don't have much to play for themselves, and the Cousins factor could be a wild card, I think Atlanta have this one.
The spread is fairly hefty, so I think I'm going to flip flop over to the 'Skins here.
Redskins +7 (Falcons to win)
Bears @ Browns +1
Chicago comfortably handled the Cowboys last week, whereas the Browns blew a huge lead in their loss to NE. Even in Cleveland I like the Bears to pull this one off, even with Josh Gordon having the kind of year that proves he belongs on any team but this one.
Negligible spread is negligible.
Bears -1
Texans @ Colts -5.5
The Texans lost to Jacksonville, and will likely have the 1st overall pick in April. Pretty shocking stuff, and right now they are probably more concerned with their coaching situation than travelling to play their divisional rivals. All this means that I can't see them pulling off a result here, even if Indy have fallen off the pace a lot in recent weeks.
The spread is meaty but nothing they can't handle at home. I repeat, Houston just lost to the Jags.
Colts -5.5
Bills @ Jaguars +2
Despite what the above might indicate, I'm not suggesting the last few weeks have been just down to their opponents ineptitude. Jax are actually performing quite well, not well enough to make any difference at this late stage, or keep Henne his job, but just well enough to play themselves out of the top pick. Good job guys, you can't even tank a season properly. I think they continue that trend here against a very lack-luster Buffalo squad.
Again, a paltry spread that only provides a light seasoning.
Jaguars +2 (and to win)
Patriots @ Dolphins +2 Sky Sports 2
Ruh roh. The Patriots have lost Gronk. Terrible news for NE fans, and it's really quite amazing how they have gone from having the best TE situation in the league to one of the worst, all in a matter of months. All that aside, I still think they'll win against Miami in a crux divisional game that should see them lock up the division and send the Dolphins' playoff hopes back a notch.
Small spread changes nada.
Patriots -2
Eagles @ Vikings +4.5
Philly overcame both the Lions and some crazy weather to grab another win last week. At this point it's looking like they are going to steal the divisional title away from Dallas, even if Foles has finally hoisted his first INT. The Vikings aren't to be trifled with though, especially after their thrillingly close loss last week, but I still think the Eagles have enough here.
The spread does give me some cause for concern, but I like their offence to get back on track with the return of more hospitable conditions.
Eagles -4.5
Seahawks @ Giants +7
Seattle ran the Niners close, but ultimately lost out, showing once again they are a far weaker team on the road than in the cacophonous Century Link field. The Giants however, also suffered a nasty defeat on the West Coast to the Chargers, and really there is only one way this one is going. Seattle's defence are going to have a field day and I'm expecting at least 3 picks from Eli.
Large spread but nothing they can't handle.
Seattle -7
49ers @ Buccaneers +5
Coming off their crucial win over Seattle, the Niners should be more than the Buccs can handle. That said, Tampa having improved dramatically from their early season woes and stranger things have happened...
The spread is fair, I still like the Niners to beat it though.
49ers -5
Sunday Second Wave
Jets @ Panthers -11
The Jets were impressive against the Raiders, whereas the Panthers looked lost at times in New Orleans. Of course, this will be a much easier test for the home side here, and I expect them to win very comfortably.
11 points is perhaps a little too rich even for me. Will the Panthers win? Almost certainly, but I'm not convinced it will be that clear cut.
Jets +11 (Panthers to win)
Chiefs @ Raiders +4
The Chiefs just single handedly (well maybe not, but they were the final straw) benched RG3 for the rest of the year. The Raiders just made the Jets look good. This is only going one way, even in Oakland.
The spread is nowhere near enough, rolling hard with this bad boy.
Chiefs -4 SFBTOW
Saints @ Rams +6
New Orleans showed up Carolina at home, but even with Clemons under center the Rams won't be pushovers. I do like the Saints to win this going off their ridiculously good form though.
The spread makes this interesting. Very loath to call this either way but will have to side with the Saints here.
Saints -6
Cardinals @ Titans +2.5
Nice match up here between two teams both on the outside of playoff hopes. I like Arizona to come in and win this one, the Titans have fallen off the pace recently and the Cards have been putting together some very solid performances.
2.5 doesn't make me balk much.
Cardinals -2.5
Packers @ Cowboys +7 Sky Sports 2
The Cowboys' defence got absolutely shredded by the Bears, something they must be getting used to after their recent performances. Their offence is still deadly though, and with Rodgers and Lacy both questionable to play this could swing either way. I'll side with the home team to grab a tight win here.
The spread is large enough to assuage any doubts.
Cowboys +7 (and to win)
Sunday Night
Bengals @ Steelers +2.5
Divisional game, but the Steelers' playoff hopes were basically dashed by a large toe last week. The Bengals however need to win the hold off the Ravens, and that's exactly what they'll do here.
The spread doesn't scare me.
Bengals -2.5
Monday Night
Ravens @ Lions -6
Big Monday night game in which both desperately need a win. This should be a classic shootout, with both teams operating at a high level, especially with the return of Pitta bolstering Baltimore's passing options. I like the Lions to grab the W here, but it should be a close one.
The spread is enough to swing me.
Ravens +6 (Lions win)
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