NFL - No Formalities League

With Week 3 of the 2012 NFL season in the books it is once again clear that the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's unpredictable. The Patriots, Steelers, Lions and Packers all sit at 1-2 (I won't get into officiating here as what's happened has happened and going down the "what if?" road is always a dangerous endeavour), the Saints are 0-3, the Vikings are 2-1 and perhaps most shockingly the Cardinals sit at 3-0. The season is young and we've seen plenty of teams throw away good starts and many others recover from a stumble out of the blocks, but these first three weeks have provided further indication that for all the preseason prognostication on TV shows and websites, there's still very little you can count on from year to year in the NFL. I'm going to try and explore why.

Sample Size

Not to get too enamoured with the numbers here, but any statistician will tell you that for the best results  in trying to read into any group of numbers you want a larger sample size, and in trying to determine which NFL teams are best we are working with the smallest number of games in major professional sport. Sixteen games is small enough to be significantly swayed by random chance (a bounce on an onside kick, a bad call from a referee, a particularly bad injury to a star player, etc). Baseball is the most statistically driven sport there is, and a large part of that is because of the sheer number of games played - a 162 game season allows for statistical trends to play out properly and you get a real idea of who the best and worst are. The Super Bowl champion is nearly always a team that gets hot late, rather than the best team over the sixteen game stretch. A longer season might see these teams flame out, or maybe they were ascending to their proper peak. We don't know, and for that reason it's hard to read too much into straight wins and losses from year to year. For more NFL discussion of this ilk, read the excellent work of Bill Barnwell at Grantland.

Turnover

Every year NFL squads see a large amount of roster turnover, often extending into the coaching ranks too. Of a 53 man roster, teams might expect to lose between a third to a half of these players over an offseason cycle. This affects the extent to which teams can prepare for certain likelihoods or personnel match ups, but also adds unpredictability in that certain players may play well in one situation and not in another, or vice versa. For every high profile free agent move that pays off, there are about five that don't. Not to mention the in built parity measure that is the draft, allowing bad teams to make a great leap from one year to the next, be it with a transcendent player or a good class. Furthermore, all it takes is one or two big whiffs in the draft to set a team back for a year or two. No-one knows who these players will be on draft day (see Quinn, Brady), but they inevitably happen every year.

Ideology

Strategy and ideology in the NFL is perhaps more cyclical than in any other major league. The talent level in the NFL is so high across the board that coaches are constantly searching for any new wrinkle that might give their team an edge. Last season saw the read option attack raise it's head in flashes in Carolina and Denver. Both these teams went from poor predictions to playoff potential, with the Broncos even dispatching the Steelers in January. However, given the small number of games played each year and the 5 month season/7 month off-season ratio, these same coaches have an inordinate amount of time to study how to stop these same innovations. Cam Newton is already struggling to reproduce last year's stunning numbers and though Tebow has been traded, his new coaching staff are hesitant to plug him in to run what was such a devastating wrinkle last season - both for the same reason: the opposition is better prepared for it. The same phenomenon occurred when the Dolphins started running their "wildcat" offense. It caught teams off guard and Miami made the playoffs that year, but by the next season it was just another set of plays that the opposition was ready to defend. Devin Hester's unprecedented impact as a kick returner was also quickly neutralised when teams worked out they don't have to kick it to him every time. Any new gimmick or gadget is solved quickly - you get this dual phenomenon of teams trying to innovate but also trying to stamp out innovation at the same time. College football has such a wide array of different offenses partly because teams face so many different teams over the span of a few years that it would be impossible to be completely prepared for every opponent, though the thinner talent pool and the amount of time coaches have to devote to recruiting also play an important role.

The unpredictability of the NFL is what makes it one of the best sports leagues to follow in the world. As a fan of the Premier League despite it's hegemony, it is often a breathe of fresh air that "on any given Sunday" I might witness upsets no one expected, and that every year the champion could be a team no one saw coming the summer before.

Beating the Bookies: Week 4

Last week was not a good one to be predicting results with upsets all over the board. 

Whilst the Vikings handling the 49ers may be the most attention grabbing, the Chiefs putting the Saints to 0-3 and the Lions failing to beat the Titans despite some late game heroics made for a crazy crazy week in the NFL. Not only that but the Raiders decided they would stop getting flagged every other down and beat the Steelers (and my SFBOTW!). 

All in all it meant my record has taken a nasty hit. Have I lost all credibility? Did I have any to begin with? Read on to find out. 

Week 3:

Outright: 6/16

Spread: 5/16

SFBOTW: 0/1

Season:

Outright: 23/48

Spread: 23/48

SFBOTW: 1/3

Browns @ Ravens -13

Putting football in perspective.

Big 'ol spread here, but one of the very worst playing the very best (plus homefield). Have to think this will be a blow out of epic proportions.

Ravens -13 

Patriots @ Bills +3.5

You have to like these odds, the Patriots narrowly lost to an extremely well polished Ravens side (spurred on by an emotional Torrey Smith performance), whereas the Bills are now down to their 3rd choice RB.

I like Belichick to stop the rot and make a statement against their divisional rivals here. 

Patriots -3.5 SFBOTW!

49ers @ Jets +4

The 49ers hit a major roadblock against an impressive Ponder led performance on Sunday - I bank on them recovering in time for this juicy inter-conference match-up between two hard hitting defences and questioned offences. 

Losing Revis for the year to an ACL is a huge blow (and just one of many big injuries last week), so I've got to side with the Niners.

49ers -3.5 

Seahawks @ Rams +3

Monday night's performance was impressive if ruined by flags. However there is still the nag that Seattle don't perform well away from home or against easier opposition. Despite those misgivings I'll go with the Hawks - just don't expect any sort of blow out.

Seattle -3

Panthers @ Falcons -9

The Falcons are hotter than Hansel, having taken down 3 AFC West contenders in as many weeks. This is a team that barring an injury can go all the way, boasting a deadly offence complemented by a turnover hungry D.

Matt Ryan, so hot right now.

The Panthers meanwhile are 1-2, and in something of a crisis. A 9 point margin makes this a difficult one to call, especially as we haven't seen Atlanta's defence face a mobile QB yet, but I'll side with the Falcons to squeeze the spread.

Falcons -9

Vikings @ Lions -4

The lions have been disappointing so far – whereas the Vikings have performed above expectations – shocking San Francisco last week.

However, I still think the Lions at home have the upper hand in this one, Megatron is due a big game, and my gut tells me to stick with Detroit.

Lions -4

Chargers @ Chiefs +1

Jackie Battle (now a Bolt) tearing up SD in the 2011 game.

A vintage 2011 Chargers performance, complete with Rivers' favourite trick play: the 'throw the ball out of bounds interception'. Guess where we last saw that play? That's right, Chargers @ Chiefs.

I have to hope that the Falcons were just that good, and a turnover ridden performance can be learned from in time to win a crucial divisional game. 

Seeing as the Chargers have kindly done whatever I've told them to so far, I'll take them again.

Chargers -1

Titans @ Texans -12

Houston are vying with Atlanta for my best team in the league gold sticker. Seeing off the Broncos showed they could do it against a better quality of opposition. 

The Titans shouldn't be too much of a test at home, but 12 points is a huge margin to need a win by. Despite that, I've got to back my gut and think they will continue to lay down the standard for the league. 

Contract hold-outs slow down lesser backs.

Texans -12

Bengals @ Jaguars +1

The Bengals just took down the Redskins at home in another enthralling game (win or lose RG3ver always excites).

The Jaguars just beat the Colts.

Decide for yourself which of those two things is more impressive.

Bengals -1 

Raiders @ Broncos -6

I'm as shocked as anyone that the Raiders managed a result against Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean they are going to put together back to back wins, least of all at the mile high. 

Broncos -6

Dolphins @ Cardinals -6

The Cardinals are 3-0.

I'll let that sink in for a moment.

Nor has it been an easy ride with wins over Seattle, New England and Philadelphia. The Dolphins meanwhile are battling with a close OT loss to the Jets last week, but still just the one W over Oakland.

I have to go with the undefeated side to notch up another win, and I think they can do it by the spread.

Cardinals -6

Redskins @ Buccaneers -3

Where is the solid Redskins defence we heard so much about? If they could step it up a bit and give RG3 some help the Skins could well be 3-0. As it is, it's a fact of a football that the better your offence plays the more pressure your defence is subjected to. 

I've got to continue with my Griffin love-in and take the points here - surely London Fletcher and co. can hold down Josh Freeman's offence just enough for Robert to work his magic.

Redskins +3 (and to win)

Raise your hands if these refs suck.

Saints @ Packers -7.5

That is a large spread, and a mark of how far NO have fallen this year. Green Bay meanwhile will be hungry to avenge their unjust loss at the hands of some diabolical officiating.

However, the Saints despite being 0-3 have the kind of ability that at any point could rear up and grab a game by the throat, and certainly have the fire power to keep pace with Rodgers and co.

Saints +7.5 (GB to win)

Giants @ Eagles -1 

My mouth is watering for this Sunday late game. Two fierce rivals, both 2-1, both with everything to prove (whether it's the pressure to repeat or just to perform).

I'm not sure whether this game will even be close, let alone who will win it. Giants have been the more impressive team in general this year, so I'll go with them.

Giants +1 (and to win)

Bears @ Cowboys -3.5

Another interesting Monday night match-up. Two teams that are quite similar in my mind, both with huge fan expectations on their shoulders, both with talent at key positions, both with QBs liable to have meltdowns, both with play making defences.

You would think Ware should be able to cause havoc on Chicago's porous o-line, and the Cowboys' CB paring of Claiborne and Carr are one of the most promising in the league. From a match-up perspective I'll take the home side.

Cowboys -3.5 

Beating the Bookies: Week 3

Another mixed bag last week, but I improved slightly. Couple of upset calls I'm very pleased with, and a couple of favourites that stalled on spread winning drives. This week I'll call them all for sure...

Week 2:

Spread: 10/16
Outright: 10/16
SBOFTW: 0/1

Season:

Spread: 17/32
Outright: 17/32
SBOFTW: 1/2

Giants -1 @ Panthers

Looking at a common opponent, the Buccs beat the Panthers but fell to a late Giants surge. However, Carolina have the home field advantage and just saw off the Saints. A tough one so I'm going to stick with personal bias.

Panthers +1 (and to win)

Rams +9 @ Bears

Cortland is a bad man and deserves everything he gets. 

Will Chicago ever solve it's O-line issues? I hope so, because Cutler's whining is even more annoying than the Rams spoiling RGIII's fairy tale rookie season.

St Louis did well @ Detroit, so it's not an unfair assumption to say they will hold the own against another NFC North offence that revolves around one big play maker. It's a big spread so I'll take the points.

Having said that, I really really hope Brandon Marshall destroys Finnegan à la Andre. 

Rams +9 (Bears win)

Bills -3 @ Browns

The Bills have been bipolar in their first two, so it's a bit risky as to whether you'll get a good performance this week. You know what's even more risky? Betting on Cleveland.

Bills -3 

Watch Eli scuttle.

Buccs +7 @ Cowboys

Difficult one to call, the Buccs almost had the better of big blue with a similar spread, so I will reservedly go with them again. 

The Cowboys will certainly be wary about trying to kneel out any lead.

Buccs +7 

Jags @ Colts -3

Both having played the Vikings gives us another common opponent insight. I see the Colts going 2-1 and the Jags falling to 0-3 despite having played better than I anticipated prior to the pre-season.

Home field is key in this. -3 isn't too much of a stretch.

Colts -3

Jets -3 @ Dolphins

Both are 1-1 going into this AFC East rivalry match up. Don't let that fool you though, NY are by far the better outfit. 

Reggie had a nice day vs the Raiders, but the Jets' strong run defence should handle him.

8000000-1 that Tebow is caught banging L. Tannehill post game. 

Jets -3 

49ers -7 @ Vikings

I can't think of any reason why the Vikings are in with a shot in this one. The 49ers have been hot so far, and this shouldn't prove a stumbling block. They should just scrape the spread with a top tier run defence holding AP in check.

49ers -7

Chiefs +9 @ Saints

Again, who would have predicted these two would be 0-2? The Chiefs were a lot of experts' surprise package and the Saints are perennial playoff contenders.This is why the NFL is great. 

Both sides have been extremely disappointing thus far and at some point NO are going to kick into gear and show big Rog what's up, but 9 points is a healthy enough margin for me to side with KC.

Chiefs +9

Lions -3 @ Titans

The Titans have not performed well out the gate, and as much as would love to credit last weeks loss to SD being awesome, giving up 3 TDs to Dante Rosario is not the sign of a air tight defence (look for Brandon Pettigrew to have a big day).

Add to this a faltering offence and all signs point to a W for Detriot.  

Lions -3

See Greg to look this fly.

Bengals +4 @ Redskins

I'll confess, I've been stricken hard with RG3ver. It doesn't help that he's my fantasy QB1, or that if it wasn't for Josh Morgan being a massive d-bag I'd likely be 2/2 in my SFBOTWs right now. 

Whatever the case, until this kid starts looking like a rookie I'm not going to bet against him.

Skins -4

Eagles -4 @ Cardinals 

Who would have predicted these two would be 2-0 going into this match up? 

The Eagles have been riding their luck hard for their two wins whereas the Cards have looked far greater than the sum of their parts. I have to go with the more talented squad where gambling is concerned, but I would love to see the Cards go 3-0 and stick it to all the naysayers (of which I was definitely one).

Eagles -4

Falcons @ Chargers -3

Going with head over heart and taking the Falcons in this contest, though Gates and Mathews looking like being back should keep it close. 

Atlanta have played the tougher opposition for their 2 wins, and will probably see off both AFC West title contenders back to back. 

Falcons +3 (and to win)

Texans @ Broncos +1.5

Manning looked rough at Atlanta - real rough. There were some very questionable throws into heavy coverage which resulted in 3 picks, and you can't blame any surgery for that.

People tend to forgot Peyton was throwing a fair few picks prior to getting injured, and that the Broncos team was not doing at all well last year before Tebow rejuvenated them.

The Texans on the other hand are backing up their pre-season hype and are 2-0 (albeit over two sorry teams). I like them to come in and snatch a victory here.

Texans -1.5

Glancing nervously around for witnesses. 

Steelers -4.5 @ Raiders

The Raiders have been just terrible this year. When you are getting pushed around by the Dolphins you know something is up. Even a home advantage won't save Oakland from a drubbing when the steel curtain falls this Sunday. 

On a side note, the Raiders will see something of a kindred spirit in Big Ben - in that he is a dirty rapist criminal thug. 

If only the Dark Knight Rises football scene could actually happen during this game... not only would it solve America's future prison crowding, but Oakland might finally get a decent field laid down.  

Steelers -4.5 SFBOTW!

Patriots +3 @ Ravens

Rematch of the 2011/12 AFC Champ game, minus Billy Cundiff. 

Whenever you see the Patriots being given a handicap you know something is weird in the NFL, and judging by how close games between these two usually are I'll snap the points up.

Patriots +3 (and to win)

Packers -3.5 @ Seahawks

Let's not confuse a win over the Cowboys as being a sign of a championship team. I like the Hawks but can't see past the Pack even with the 12th man and blocks like that.

Packers -3.5

*All odds accurate as of 18/09/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App*

Beating the Bookies: Week 2

Week 1 Roundup

Less than half the spread and only half the outrights, not the best rookie performance to my predicting career with a lot of close games from underdogs surprising me, and some of the underdogs I thought had a shot rolling over.

Week 1:

Spread: 7/16
Outright: 8/16
SBOFTW: 1/1

Nevertheless, the Chargers won in a characteristic penalty-marred performance from the Raiders, meaning I’m 100% in my sure fire bets of the week. Let's concentrate on that.

Week 2

Bears +6 @ Packers

Bromantic.

Another big rivalry Thursday night match up. Bears looked hot at home against a weak Colts side, whereas GB struggled against the Niners. 

Form would dictate I have to take Chicago +6, but I have my reservations about ever betting on Jay Cutler. 

Bears +6 (GB win)

Chiefs +3.5 @ Bills

Buffalo were a huge let down for me at the Jets, and have lost Fred Jackson already. I like the Chiefs to bounce back after capitulating in the 2nd half to a red hot Falcons offence last Sunday.

Chiefs +3.5 (and to win)

Saints -1 @ Panthers

Were NO that bad or was RG3 that good? I’m going with the latter, and the Saints to take it to their rivals in a must win game for both teams after week 1 losses. Cam Newton looked distinctly average, and had better hope it was just a blip or the pressure will be on. Such is the price of looking so good in your first year.

Saints -1

Brandon Weeden getting sacked by the flag.

Browns +7 @ Bengals

Cincy had a tough time on Monday night visiting the Ravens. Welcoming the Browns will of course be far easier. The Bengals will be eager to reclaim their pride, I can see this one getting ugly. 

Brown's fans had better hope Trent Richardson was just being slowed by injury or they're in for another long year.

Bengals -7

Vikings -1 @ Colts

I like Andrew Luck to lead the Colts to victory on his debut home performance. Having said that, AP looks to be getting back to his old tricks sooner than many anticipated, and Ponder led a last minute drive close enough to grab the OT securing FG on Sunday, so this could be an interesting one.

Colts +1 (and to win)

Texans -9 @ Jaguars

Houston tore Miami a new one on Sunday, and whilst Jacksonville will provide tougher opposition in front of a home ‘crowd’, the Texans should still manage the spread.

Texans -9

The only good thing Ryan has ever done.

Raiders -1 @ Dolphins 

Tannehill was as bad as everyone other than the draft hype machine suspected, and the Dolphins could well be the worst team in the league this year. The Raiders on the other hand shot themselves in the foot with penalties and miscues. 

Having #1 WR Moore back against the Phins should be enough for a road win if they can stay more disciplined. Here's a picture of Lauren Tannehill so you don't lose all faith in humanity thinking about how bad these two teams are. 

Raiders -1

Cardinals + 13.5 @ Patriots

That is some spread. The Cardinals’ defence proved why it was underrated by holding the Seahawks close enough for Kolb to come and in beat the travelling team. There is no chance of the same happening in NE, but almost two TDs is enough breathing room for me err with the points.

Cardinals + 13.5 (Pats to win)

Buccaneers +9 @ NYG

The Buccs showed up Cam at home, and 9 points is a big enough spread for me to think they can give the Giants a run for their money after a disappointing showing from Big Blue in week 1, who looked to be suffering more than a little from a SB hangover.

Buccs +9 (Giants to win)

Ravens +1 @ Eagles

I'm not sure how the bookies can justify putting a Ravens team who just demolished a decent Bengals side as underdogs against an an Eagles side who struggled massively in an messy win over the Browns.

Clearly the Eagles have the home field advantage, but if Vick threw 4 picks against Cleveland, I can see Ed Reed matching that on his own. Flacco and his no huddle offence tore it up at the weekend, and I expect more of the same. There is always the danger the Eagles will stop dicking around and play to their on paper potential, but until that happens I'm going with the form. 

Ravens +1 (and to win)

All aboard the Romo-coaster.

Cowboys -3 @ Seahawks

Seattle at home is a whole different kettle of fish to Seattle on the road, whereas the Cowboys are historically an equally inconsistent team week to week. I like the Seahawks to pull off the upset here with the help of the 12^th man. A good secondary should slow down the Cowboys passing attack.

Seahawks +3 (and to win)

Redskins -3 @ Rams

The Rams shocked the league by narrowly missing out on a major upset at Detroit. On the other hand RG3 put on a near flawless performance in dominating the Saints in the Superdome. If they can show up the Saints they can certainly take care of St. Louis. Feeling very confident with this one.

Skins -3. SFBOTW!

Jets +6.5 @ Steelers

Sanchez and the Jets offence made a statement on Sunday, routing the visiting Bills. The Steelers will be a much tougher test however, and a bad start could prove fatal.

Steelers –6.5

Titans +6 @ Chargers 

The Chargers winning the special teams battle...?!

San Diego came through for me last week, and I fully expect them to see off a lacklustre Titans team at home. 

How long is it before we start using the 2K bit of CJ's name ironically? Locker will need to hook up with Britt, Washington and Wright early and often if they are going to outscore SD.

I won't be going with the Chargers every week - but I think they should just squeeze -6.

Chargers -6

Coaching the Lions would make anyone aggressively frustrated.

Lions +6.5 @49ers

Tough one to call, but I have to go with the Niners at home after beating GB at Lambeau.

Let's hope for more post game magic like last year.

49ers -6.5

Broncos +3 @ Falcons

Another very difficult one. Matt Ryan to Julio Jones could be the pairing of the season as the Falcons offence scorched the Chiefs. On the flip side Peyton Manning is back - no doubt can be had at this point.

Home field advantage could be the swing here, but this really could go to either side.

Whoever wins it looks to light up the scoreboard. (Over/under on points is 51!)

Falcons - 3

Coming soon to a fantasy blow out near you.

*All odds accurate as of 12/09/2012 via Yahoo's Sportacular App.*