Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 4

What a crazy week, and a terrible one to be wagering on. At 8-8 outright, and a shoddy 6-9-1 on the spread, it wasn't just me who lost out this week due to the unprecedented number of upsets around the league. On top of all these shock results, there were a couple of games that I just plain called wrong, and will have to eat humble pie over.

Hopefully I can recover my form going into this week, otherwise it will be a long and austere October in the Gibbs household. 

Week 3:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 6-9
SFBOTW = 0-1

2013/14:
Outright = 30-18 (63%)
Spread = 24-22-2 (51%)
SFBOTW = 2-1 (66%)

All Time:
Outright = 196-109 
Spread = 164-136-5 
SFBOTW = 10-9-1 
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)

Thursday Night

49ers @ Rams +3 Sky Sports 1

In many ways, the Colts beating up on a lack-lustre 49ers squad was the best thing for this spread. If the Niners had won we'd be looking at a much more unattractive point difference, but as it is I like SF at -3. The last two extremely tight meetings between these two sides, plus the Rams' homefield advantage, give me some cause for concern, but with their own terrible week 3 performance against Dallas to wear I like the Niners to get back to form quicker - and 3 points is almost perfect for a potential OT game.

Disclaimer - with SF missing their two defensive lynch pins in Willis and Aldon Smith, this game gets even more tenuous. 

49ers -3 

Sunday First Wave

Ravens @ Bills +3.5

People should be realising by now that the Bills' pre-season flashes have not developed into any kind of regular season fire, coming off an ugly loss to the Jets on Sunday. Baltimore, meanwhile, whilst not having excelled in losses to Denver and a narrow win over Cleveland, exploded against Houston to thrash them 30-9. Even in Buffalo, this is a no brainer. SFBOTW contender.

Ravens -3.5

Bengals @ Browns +4.5

Cincy shocked me, and themselves a little bit, by rallying to beat a strong GB side after turning the ball over no less than 4 times in a row. Cleveland meanwhile made me eat my hat by pulling out the win against the Vikings led by Hoyer the Destroyer. I am shocked, but think it's a much a testament to how bad the Vikings are rather than the Browns actually being good. They have some nice pieces on offence (Cameron) and a very solid defence, but they'll still find a way to lose. I'm pretty bullish about a far more talented Bengals squad taking this by a score. 

Bengals -4.5

Bears @ Lions -2.5

Interesting match up here between Chicago and Detroit. I like the Bears here, coming off a strong performance against Pittsburgh, but the Lions just beat the Redskins in a shoot-out, and the match up of a scary Lions d-line vs a shaky Chicago pass-pro is not a good one. The points swing this in Chicago's favour, and I'll think they'll grab the win to boot.

Bears +2.5 (and to win)

Seahawks @ Texans +3

The Texans aren't as bad as they looked last week, and the Seahawks aren't as good. That said, Seattle are still very solid favourites in my mind. They'll may fall victim to the same road struggles that plagued them versus Carolina, but should still have enough in the tank to push past Houston by a score.

Seahawks -3 

Colts @ Jaguars +9.5

The Colts shocked the league by knocking off SF, and the Jags game went according to plan in a blow-out loss. 9.5 is generous, this one won't even be close.

Colts -9.5 

Giants @ Chiefs -4.5

Tough one to call in my mind, but I think the Chiefs have the edge here. They match up well and should pick up where the Panthers left off harrying Eli all day and causing turnovers. That said it's hard to imagine the Giants at 0-4 as it is the Chiefs at 4-0 - but sooner or later the power balances have to shift in the NFL, and the sheer lack of talent on NY's roster is astounding. 

Chiefs -4.5

Steelers @ Vikings -1 Sky Sports 2

When announced this looked like a rather sexy if rugged game to treat the UK fans to, but now we have two 0-3 teams battling for their lives in Wembley. This should be an extremely tight game, and one I am very loath to have to call either way. The whole London thing nullifies the Vikings' home field advantage, but I look at their talent on offence, defence and ST and they have a Steelers team suffering from metal fatigue banged to rights. Despite that, QB being as crucial as it is, Big Ben is a hell of an upgrade over a frankly terrible Christian Ponder. Due to what I think will be a low scoring, ugly game of football I'll take the Steelers, but am not at all confident either way.

Steelers +1 (and to win)

Cardinals @ Buccaneers -3

Both these teams struggled to keep up with vastly superior outfits at the weekend, so this should be an interesting encounter. Arizona have had the tougher schedule, and looked a lot more promising, so despite the fact it is in Tampa I'll go with the Cardinals. 

Cardinals +3 (and to win)

Sunday Second Wave

Jets @ Titans -4.5

The Titans showed a lot of poise (particularly Locker) to rally from behind and beat a decent Chargers side. They are definitely one of the surprise teams of 2013, and despite the fact they hold the same record as the Jets this should be an open and shut case for a buoyed Titans squad. 

Titans -4.5 SFBOTW

Cowboys @ Chargers +1 Sky Sports 2

Very interesting match-up between two teams who are, in my mind at least, very similar. This should be a high scoring affair, and is basically a toss up for me. Dez Bryant should wreak havoc amongst SD's secondary, but the Chargers will benefit from getting a number of key players back who were missing from their narrow and unfortunate loss to Tennessee (Fluker, Butler etc.) I'll go with the home side here, but it really is anyone's game.

Chargers +1 (and to win)

Eagles @ Broncos -11

I was surprised the Eagles lost to KC, but not that the Broncos blew out Oakland. This should be another win for Denver, but 11 points is just a fraction too much for me to feel comfortable betting on them. In what should be a high scoring game I'll take the points cushion. That said, Manning should cut the Eagles limp secondary to shreds, so it will be up to Philly's offence to keep the game competitive. 

Eagles +11 (Broncos to win)

Redskins @ Raiders +3

Oakland didn't look great versus Denver, but had some flashes of great play. The Redskins meanwhile lost another agonizingly close shoot-out, and must be feeling like this really isn't their year. 

No odds yet for this game, so I'll update in the week. I expect a spread of around +4.5 for Oakland, and think I would side with the Redskins in that instance, despite their 0-3 record.

Pretty close to what I was expecting in terms of an opening line, and I'll take the Redskins at -3 and be happy with it. They may have a shocking pass defence but they still have too much quality for the Raiders to handle. 

Redskins -3

Sunday Night

Patriots @ Falcons -1

The Patriots handled the Buccs comfortably, but Atlanta got rocked by a late Miami surge. This should be a tight contest, and I think I like the Falcons on the back of their home field in a narrow encounter.

No odds for this game yet (no doubt dependent on Pats injury news). Update pending. I'm expecting close to a pick 'em.

The line has opened at Falcons -1, and I'll go with my gut and take them at that. This is the end of game that both teams play their best in, and it should be entertaining shoot out whoever wins.

Falcons -1 

Monday Night

Dolphins @ Saints -6.5

Fair play to Miami for continuing to notch up the wins. I don't think anyone expected 3-0 at this stage, and the Saints will have to continue to play strongly to avoid tarnishing their own undefeated record. In NO I think they have enough to win this game, but the large spread makes me a little edgy. 

Dolphins +6.5 (Saints to win)

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 3

Week 2 saw my outrights go 11-5 for a second week running, despite some of my most questionable calls ever (I publicly apologise for the Redskins), and my spread tips took a drastic upturn as well - also hitting 11-5. The cherry on top of this particularly profitable cake was my SFBOTW hitting for a second straight week with Peyton throwing down on Eli. 

Week 3 has some more excellent match ups to peruse, with an abnormal amount of close games to call (plus a couple of sure fire blow outs)...

Week 2:
Outright = 11-5
Spread = 11-5
SFBOTW = 1-0

2013/14:
Outright = 22-10
Spread = 18-13-1
SFBOTW = 2-0

All Time:
Outright = 188-101 
Spread = 158-127-4 
SFBOTW = 10-8-1 
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)

Thursday Night

Chiefs @ Eagles -3 Sky Sports 1

KC confirmed their position as play-off contenders by narrowly defeating the visiting Cowboys last week, whereas the Eagles lost out in a shoot-out to Rivers and the Chargers. Despite the loss, it was another impressive outing for the much lauded Chip Kelly offence – and had a couple of Vick’s deep bombs to Jackson been inches less wayward it could have been a very different result. I can’t see Alex Smith matching scores with Vick the way the Chargers did, so this one is only going one way unless the Chiefs’ defence can slow down the Eagles to an extent nobody else has yet.

Eagles -3 

Sunday First Wave

Texans @ Ravens +1

This game should be another tight one for the 2-0 Texans, who rallied hard to beat SD in week 1 and narrowly saw off a spirited Titans performance at home in week 2. The Ravens will be another tough opponent, but have not been on form themselves this year after getting blown out in the opener and narrowly beating the lacklustre Browns at home last weekend. I see the Texans edging it, but as to whether the game will be a scrappy defensive affair or a shoot-out I have no clue.

Texans -1

Giants @ Panthers -1

I almost feel bad for the Giants... I assumed my week 1 vote of no confidence would be all they needed to ball out and take the NFC East by storm. As it is, they vying with the Redskins for the sorriest them in what was supposed to be a formidable division. Whilst some of their woes can be blamed on a tough opening brace of games, eventually the lack of talent on their roster (and turnover strewn QB play) has to be held accountable. I see them losing again to the Panthers this weekend who, whilst also 0-2, have been a drive away in both their losses.

Panthers -1

Packers @ Bengals +2.5

GB boasted a very impressive, and at times brutal, win over the visiting Redskins on Sunday – and it is safe to say at this point they’ve done their homework on shutting down running QBs. Andy Dalton is, no disrespect to the man (unless we’re talking about his penchant for pre-game Christian rock and rubber wedding rings), not going to beat a defence with his legs. The Bengals therefore will be hoping that rookie Gio Bernard can continue his impressive performance against the Steelers and spur them to victory here. I don’t see it happening, as the Packers have just too much firepower not to mention a full head of steam going into this game.

Packers 2.5

Rams @ Cowboys -4

Interesting clash here between two middle of the pack teams. The Cowboys certainly have the better post-season shot by way of their softer division, but I’m not convinced they are a better team than St. Louis, especially after having made some all too familiar mistakes that resulted in an ugly late loss to the Chiefs at the weekend. The Rams ran the Falcons close, but also walked away with nothing leaving both at 1-1. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Dallas here, if only due to the home field advantage, but wouldn't be shocked to see go in the visitors’ favour.

Rams +4 (Cowboys win)

Browns @ Vikings -6.5

Other than Jacksonville, these two teams have the dubious honour of having probably the worst QB situations in the league right now. Ponder is showing absolutely no signs of improvement for Minnesota, and will be luckily to last the year let alone into next season, whereas the Browns have been forced to replace the injured Weeden with ex Patriots and Steelers QB Brian Hoyer (and not Jason Campbell). This adjustment for me sets the odds firmly in the Vikings’ favour, as even with Ponder hamstringing their offence, Peterson is good enough to put sufficient points up on his own to see them past the Browns.

Update: The Browns have just traded their best offensive player to the Colts for almost certainly less than what they drafted him for. They aren’t going to win this game.

Vikings -6.5

Buccaneers @ Patriots -8.5

The Patriots are the obvious choice to win this game, but whether due to injuries or simple decline they aren't the Pats of old. Either way, and despite their shortcomings, I like to them to beat a Buccs team that seems to have given up on Freeman already. 8.5 is a large spread, however, so I'll take Tampa to keep the game within their grasp.

Buccs +8.5 (Pats to win)

Cardinals @ Saints -9

This game should be an entertaining one, with both teams fresh off of narrow wins. The Saints are undefeated so far, but could be in danger of losing here unless they can muster more than what they showed last week versus Tampa. Arizona, on the other hand, matched scores well with Detroit and grabbed the win (though not in the manner I suggested). I still think NO win this game, but it likely won’t be decided until within the final 2 minutes. 9 points is far too generous in my opinion, and I'm jumping on it in a flash.

Cardinals +9 (Saints to win) 

Chargers @ Titans -3

I expected the Eagles/Chargers game to be a shootout. What I didn’t except was that it would be the Chargers who would be leading the game with Philadelphia chasing it. Incredibly the Eagles blitzed Rivers 51 times with only 1 sack to show for it (a misstep from rookie Fluker). This doesn’t mean that the Chargers o-line is suddenly fixed, but it is a sign that Rivers and Royal’s prolific early season form could continue. Despite their offensive success, I don’t expect another high scoring affair here, with the 1-1 Titans presenting stiff opposition off the back of their close run lose to rivals Houston. Despite their strengths (notably a stingy defence and strong ground game) they are likely an easier opponent than the Texans or Eagles, so I am going to stop coddling SD and predict a dominant win. They had better deliver.

Chargers +3 (and to win)

Lions @ Redskins -1 Sky Sports 3

Ok, ok, I know that predicting the Skins to beat GB was dumb. Super dumb. Maybe the dumbest one I’ve ever made. So you’d probably think that in the wake of that car crash I’d be all over the Lions in a heartbeat. However, I would never forgive myself if I turned my back on Washington now and they pulled it out the bag…

Illogical feelings aside, it’s a terrible match up for the Skins, who’s pass defence has been one of the worst in the league this year and now has to face off against Megatron and co., not to mention the deadly Lions d-line that should make RG3’s life a misery from start to finish. I’m having to reign myself back from giving the Redskins more chance, and this is the easiest team they’ve played yet (so it’s not out of the question they win here), but I am going to try and be sensible about this.

Lions +1 (and to win)

Sunday Second Wave

Falcons @ Dolphins -1

Incredibly, to me at least, the Dolphins are favourites here. I know they are 2-0 and the Falcons are minus Steven Jackson, but their wins are against Cleveland and a regressed Colts team. I think the Falcons will command this game, relying on their more than capable passing attack, and Miami will be found out. If I’m wrong here I’ll happily jump on board the Dolphins’ play-off bound bandwagon, but I don’t think I am.

Note - this feels like a classic Vegas trap game, so if you see an inordinate amount of flags going in the Dolphins' favour start questioning just how legit the NFL really is.

Falcons +1 (and to win) SFBOTW

Bills @ Jets -1

EJ Manuel is having what is turning out to be quite an impressive year for a rookie (so far at least), and would be receiving a lot more praise for the Bills’ 1-1 start were it not for the impossibly high bar that was set last year. The Jets meanwhile have also surpassed all expectations with their 0.500 beginning, but the close scoreline in last week’s narrow loss to the Patriots somewhat masked an ugly performance from their rookie QB. I could see the Jets grinding out another gritty win here at home, but the smart money is on the Bills to grab their first divisional win and nip at NE and Miami’s heels.

Bills +1 (and to win)

Jaguars @ Seahawks -19

There aren’t many sure things in the NFL, but this is one of them. The spread is gargantuan, and I can see Jax easily laying an egg here.

Seahawks -19

Colts @ 49ers -10.5 Sky Sports 3

With their latest steal trade asset Richardson, the Colts boast a far more balanced and formidable attack. While this won’t be enough to see them past a dominant (and no doubt very angry) 49ers team, it should make the game more competitive than it otherwise would have been. Kaepernick and co. had a torrid time of it at Century Link last week, but look for them to get back to winning ways at Candlestick in this one. Not too sure about this one, but I think Luck will put up enough, even in garbage time, to squeeze this below the spread.

Colts +10.5 (49ers win)

Sunday Night

Bears @ Steelers +2.5

No team has had their hopes more quickly dashed this year than the Steelers (ok, maybe the Browns now – but I’m not sure they ever really had hope), and with their multitude of key injuries it is going to be a long season for Pittsburgh fans. The most likely outcome here is the Bears take advantage of a battered opponent and grab the win here, sinking the hosts to 0-3. That said, even when they’re down Pittsburgh have enough venom in them, especially on defence, to make life difficult for anyone... so even with Chicago’s offence clicking this should still be a tight one.

Bears -2.5 

Monday Night

Raiders @ Broncos -14.5

Sure, it was only the Jaguars, but a win is a win when you’re the Raiders. They aren’t going to make the playoffs this year, but if Pryor continues to impress they might win enough games to avoid having to use a valuable 1st rounder on another QB.  Meanwhile at the other end of the AFC West’s talent gap, Manning and the Broncos easily saw off lil’ bro in a confident cross country win. Even after losing pro-bowl LT Clady for the year to a Lisfranc injury, Denver are just too good to even come close to losing at home to Oakland. 14.5 is a large one for a divisional game, but at home the Broncos should cover.

Broncos -14.5 

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 2

Week 1 proved to be a good week for me when predicting the final outcome, but 7-8-1 on the spread leaves a lot to be desired. No doubt this was partly down to there being a lot of nearly upsets from teams like the Bills, Raiders, Cardinals and, most painfully, Chargers.

A little ray of sunshine in what must have been an extra profitable week for Vegas was my sure fire bet of the week paid out in spectacular fashion - clearing the spread by a very healthy 22.5 points. Good work Jags.

On to week 2, and a chance of redemption for those who let me down week 1. Note on a couple of these, I made the outright selections in a bit of a rush on Tuesday and am locked into them now - so if a couple of them seem like I'm being willfully ignorant/implausible that's why.

Week 1:
Outright = 11-5
Spread = 7-8-1
SFBOTW = 1-0

All Time:
Outright = 177-96 
Spread = 147-122-4 
SFBOTW = 9-8-1 
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)

Jets @ Patriots -13

Due to my time on the continent this week I had to unconventionally make my selection before writing this. Here's the proof: 

Tommy Gibbs

As I won't be able to write my spread predictions till Saturday this week, let it be known I'm very reluctantly taking the Jets +13 @ NE in the Thursday night game.

Like ·  · Unfollow Post · 10 September at 15:40 near Gracia, Catalonia, Spain

• Seen by 18
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  Tommy Gibbs And Pats to win obviously.

  10 September at 15:59 via mobile · Like
• 

  Aaron Cox Bias aside, I reckon the jets front 7 will get to Brady early. 13-7 jets HT 20-17 FT

  10 September at 19:17 via mobile · Like
• 

  Aaron Cox Meant to say Pats 13-7 Jets @ HT And 20-17 FT.

  10 September at 19:18 via mobile · Like
• 

A little hindsight: As you can see I didn't feel super comfortable taking the Jets here, Geno hadn't convinced me at all in their win over Tampa. That said, the manner of the Pats win was equally unconvincing so I went with the generous points in an always unpredictable divisional clash. That said, I'm glad the spread wasn't below 10 as I would have probably taken the Pats.

Jets +13 (Pats to win)

Rams @ Falcons -6

St. Louis saw off Arizona in a close one whilst the Falcons fell in a costly loss to NO. I like roles to be reversed here and Atlanta to out score the Rams. They have too much talent to lose back to back games, and I like them to cover by a score at home. The Rams are never a push over though, so could easily break this spread and even grab a cheeky win.

Falcons -6

Browns @ Ravens -6.5

Despite the record setting manner of their defeat, don't stick a fork in the Ravens just yet. They get what should be a comfortable game to bounce back in against an improved but still floundering Browns outfit. Cameron had a good game for the Browns but they still won't have enough to match scores with the Ravens. SFBOTW contender.

Ravens -6.5

Chargers @ Eagles -7.5

Mike McCoy may have breathed new life into SD's offence, but familiar mistakes and a chronic inability to close the game cost them the win. Those same errors will haunt them against a ruthless Chip Kelly barrage, but I think the Bolts will score enough (even if in garbage time) to make this spread weighted in the visitor's favour. This will be one of a few shootouts this week, and it's usually smart to take a significant point spread in shootouts.

Chargers +7.5 (Eagles to win)

Panthers @ Bills +2

Both sides played well in their openers but ultimate fell short against tough opposition and this is a game both need to win if they are to rekindle their hopes of successful seasons. I like the Bills here with the home advantage, but this could swing either way. The Panthers will probably be the obvious choice for many people after keeping the Saints close, but I'm going to go with my gut and call the upset here.

Bills +2 (and to win)

Vikings @ Bears -5.5

A second straight divisional game for the Vikings, coming off their loss to Detroit. Chicago meanwhile capitalised on Bengal mistakes to win their opener. This should be another close run affair, but one the Bears should manage unless we see significant improvement under centre from Minnesota. I like them to win by a score, but this game to easily come down to a FG or less.

Bears -5.5

Redskins @ Packers -9

Fantastic NFC show down here between two post season contenders who both dropped their openers. This is another game where 2 top level QBs will attempt to flex their muscles, so I like 9 points a lot here. The Packers will probably win the game, but in a sun and sangria fueled haze I chose the Redskins earlier and there's no turning back now.

Redskins +9 (and to win, but probably not)

Dolphins @ Colts -1

Both sides won their openers, but both (particularly Indy) struggled more than they were anticipated to. It's a no brainer to back the home side here, but eye this one as a potential upset for Miami. A spread this small is a definite SFBOTW contender, and one I'll be backing heavily.

Colts -1

Cowboys @ Chiefs -3

Neither NY or Dallas looked particularly comfortable in their Sunday night encounter, and whilst it was only the Jags that KC beat down on, the manner of the victory will give them a lot of confidence going into this one. It may surprise you to know KC are the Vegas favourites here, but I'm still going to take Dallas in a tight affair. KC may again be a more popular choice, but I want to see them beat a team of merit before I'm sold.

Cowboys +3 (and to win)

Titans @ Texans -9

Tennessee may have upset Pittsburgh for the second year running, whilst Houston had to pull out all the stops to beat SD, but there's no doubt in my mind who should be winning this game. Look for the Texans to find their rhythm early in a one-sided affair. Feel a little nervy about the size of the spread, so I'll edge on the side of the Titans.

Titans +9 (Texans to win)

Saints @ Buccaneers +3

Credit to NO for winning a crucial divisional opener. With both Tampa and Carolina losing their week 1 games, if NO can reassert old power balances here they will have a commanding position in the NFC South. Whilst there are still big question marks over their defence I believe they will do just that, with Tampa failing to bounce back from their tough loss and falling to a worrying 0-2 start. Another very attractive spread here.

Saints -3

Lions @ Cardinals +1

Fitzgerald is back up and running, and we get treated to seeing probably the two most accomplished pass-catchers on the field in action as Megatron and the Lions come to town. The defences will be the key here, however, as how a shaky Cardinal's o-line copes with a dominant Lions pass rush will be key. I think the Lions will struggle more with an elite Cardinals defence however, with Patrick Peterson limiting their go to passing option.

Cardinals +1 (and to win)

Broncos @ Giants +4

It wasn't quite as spectacular as my tongue in cheek prediction, but Wilson and the Giants' struggles weren't far off. With Big Blue in the hunt for more options at RB this should be another win for Manning and co. Two points of caution: 1. Don't expect 7 TDs again. 2. Eventually Wilson will regain trust and confidence and explode (talent that good won't stay down for long). The spread here makes this my SFBOTW, with big bro showing Eli how it's done.

Broncos -4 SFBOTW

Jaguars @ Raiders -5.5

Oakland surprised me and most of the league by putting on a competitive showing against the Colts. Pryor looks good (or at least good enough to play them out of Bridgewater running), and even with holes all over the roster and a threadbare OT situation they should see off Jacksonville at home. You'll likely never see the Raiders this strong favourites again all year, but I still think they'll cover.

Raiders -5.5

49ers @ Seahawks -3

Outstanding match up and likely the game of the week. The last time these two met it was a Seahawks' demolition, but I see a much tighter affair here. Maybe the two best sides in the NFC, week 1 saw wins for both, and although SF's was far more dominant it was at home, as opposed to Seattle's tough East coast early kick off. This is a brutal game to call and whilst popular opinion probably rides with the Seahawks at century link, I fancy the 49ers to edge it. I don't have any reason, I just feel it in my gambling waters. Either way, take the +3 in a game either side has a shot in and will likely be a nail-biter.

49ers +3 (and to win)

Steelers @ Bengals -7

Pittsburgh went through the grinder in their tough home loss to the Titans, the most notable injury costing them stand out centre Pouncey (the Gator curse continues) for the season. Whilst it isn't game over for the Steelers, it's hard to imagine they could be in much worse of a position to travel to divisional rivals Cincinnati. The Bengals, despite losing week 1 (like the rest of the AFC North),  are more than talented enough to show the Steelers who the new apex predators in the division are. The spread is a large one, but justified in my opinion.

Bengals -7