Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 4

What a crazy week, and a terrible one to be wagering on. At 8-8 outright, and a shoddy 6-9-1 on the spread, it wasn't just me who lost out this week due to the unprecedented number of upsets around the league. On top of all these shock results, there were a couple of games that I just plain called wrong, and will have to eat humble pie over.

Hopefully I can recover my form going into this week, otherwise it will be a long and austere October in the Gibbs household. 

Week 3:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 6-9
SFBOTW = 0-1

2013/14:
Outright = 30-18 (63%)
Spread = 24-22-2 (51%)
SFBOTW = 2-1 (66%)

All Time:
Outright = 196-109 
Spread = 164-136-5 
SFBOTW = 10-9-1 
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)

Thursday Night

49ers @ Rams +3 Sky Sports 1

In many ways, the Colts beating up on a lack-lustre 49ers squad was the best thing for this spread. If the Niners had won we'd be looking at a much more unattractive point difference, but as it is I like SF at -3. The last two extremely tight meetings between these two sides, plus the Rams' homefield advantage, give me some cause for concern, but with their own terrible week 3 performance against Dallas to wear I like the Niners to get back to form quicker - and 3 points is almost perfect for a potential OT game.

Disclaimer - with SF missing their two defensive lynch pins in Willis and Aldon Smith, this game gets even more tenuous. 

49ers -3 

Sunday First Wave

Ravens @ Bills +3.5

People should be realising by now that the Bills' pre-season flashes have not developed into any kind of regular season fire, coming off an ugly loss to the Jets on Sunday. Baltimore, meanwhile, whilst not having excelled in losses to Denver and a narrow win over Cleveland, exploded against Houston to thrash them 30-9. Even in Buffalo, this is a no brainer. SFBOTW contender.

Ravens -3.5

Bengals @ Browns +4.5

Cincy shocked me, and themselves a little bit, by rallying to beat a strong GB side after turning the ball over no less than 4 times in a row. Cleveland meanwhile made me eat my hat by pulling out the win against the Vikings led by Hoyer the Destroyer. I am shocked, but think it's a much a testament to how bad the Vikings are rather than the Browns actually being good. They have some nice pieces on offence (Cameron) and a very solid defence, but they'll still find a way to lose. I'm pretty bullish about a far more talented Bengals squad taking this by a score. 

Bengals -4.5

Bears @ Lions -2.5

Interesting match up here between Chicago and Detroit. I like the Bears here, coming off a strong performance against Pittsburgh, but the Lions just beat the Redskins in a shoot-out, and the match up of a scary Lions d-line vs a shaky Chicago pass-pro is not a good one. The points swing this in Chicago's favour, and I'll think they'll grab the win to boot.

Bears +2.5 (and to win)

Seahawks @ Texans +3

The Texans aren't as bad as they looked last week, and the Seahawks aren't as good. That said, Seattle are still very solid favourites in my mind. They'll may fall victim to the same road struggles that plagued them versus Carolina, but should still have enough in the tank to push past Houston by a score.

Seahawks -3 

Colts @ Jaguars +9.5

The Colts shocked the league by knocking off SF, and the Jags game went according to plan in a blow-out loss. 9.5 is generous, this one won't even be close.

Colts -9.5 

Giants @ Chiefs -4.5

Tough one to call in my mind, but I think the Chiefs have the edge here. They match up well and should pick up where the Panthers left off harrying Eli all day and causing turnovers. That said it's hard to imagine the Giants at 0-4 as it is the Chiefs at 4-0 - but sooner or later the power balances have to shift in the NFL, and the sheer lack of talent on NY's roster is astounding. 

Chiefs -4.5

Steelers @ Vikings -1 Sky Sports 2

When announced this looked like a rather sexy if rugged game to treat the UK fans to, but now we have two 0-3 teams battling for their lives in Wembley. This should be an extremely tight game, and one I am very loath to have to call either way. The whole London thing nullifies the Vikings' home field advantage, but I look at their talent on offence, defence and ST and they have a Steelers team suffering from metal fatigue banged to rights. Despite that, QB being as crucial as it is, Big Ben is a hell of an upgrade over a frankly terrible Christian Ponder. Due to what I think will be a low scoring, ugly game of football I'll take the Steelers, but am not at all confident either way.

Steelers +1 (and to win)

Cardinals @ Buccaneers -3

Both these teams struggled to keep up with vastly superior outfits at the weekend, so this should be an interesting encounter. Arizona have had the tougher schedule, and looked a lot more promising, so despite the fact it is in Tampa I'll go with the Cardinals. 

Cardinals +3 (and to win)

Sunday Second Wave

Jets @ Titans -4.5

The Titans showed a lot of poise (particularly Locker) to rally from behind and beat a decent Chargers side. They are definitely one of the surprise teams of 2013, and despite the fact they hold the same record as the Jets this should be an open and shut case for a buoyed Titans squad. 

Titans -4.5 SFBOTW

Cowboys @ Chargers +1 Sky Sports 2

Very interesting match-up between two teams who are, in my mind at least, very similar. This should be a high scoring affair, and is basically a toss up for me. Dez Bryant should wreak havoc amongst SD's secondary, but the Chargers will benefit from getting a number of key players back who were missing from their narrow and unfortunate loss to Tennessee (Fluker, Butler etc.) I'll go with the home side here, but it really is anyone's game.

Chargers +1 (and to win)

Eagles @ Broncos -11

I was surprised the Eagles lost to KC, but not that the Broncos blew out Oakland. This should be another win for Denver, but 11 points is just a fraction too much for me to feel comfortable betting on them. In what should be a high scoring game I'll take the points cushion. That said, Manning should cut the Eagles limp secondary to shreds, so it will be up to Philly's offence to keep the game competitive. 

Eagles +11 (Broncos to win)

Redskins @ Raiders +3

Oakland didn't look great versus Denver, but had some flashes of great play. The Redskins meanwhile lost another agonizingly close shoot-out, and must be feeling like this really isn't their year. 

No odds yet for this game, so I'll update in the week. I expect a spread of around +4.5 for Oakland, and think I would side with the Redskins in that instance, despite their 0-3 record.

Pretty close to what I was expecting in terms of an opening line, and I'll take the Redskins at -3 and be happy with it. They may have a shocking pass defence but they still have too much quality for the Raiders to handle. 

Redskins -3

Sunday Night

Patriots @ Falcons -1

The Patriots handled the Buccs comfortably, but Atlanta got rocked by a late Miami surge. This should be a tight contest, and I think I like the Falcons on the back of their home field in a narrow encounter.

No odds for this game yet (no doubt dependent on Pats injury news). Update pending. I'm expecting close to a pick 'em.

The line has opened at Falcons -1, and I'll go with my gut and take them at that. This is the end of game that both teams play their best in, and it should be entertaining shoot out whoever wins.

Falcons -1 

Monday Night

Dolphins @ Saints -6.5

Fair play to Miami for continuing to notch up the wins. I don't think anyone expected 3-0 at this stage, and the Saints will have to continue to play strongly to avoid tarnishing their own undefeated record. In NO I think they have enough to win this game, but the large spread makes me a little edgy. 

Dolphins +6.5 (Saints to win)