A little ray of sunshine in what must have been an extra profitable week for Vegas was my sure fire bet of the week paid out in spectacular fashion - clearing the spread by a very healthy 22.5 points. Good work Jags.
On to week 2, and a chance of redemption for those who let me down week 1. Note on a couple of these, I made the outright selections in a bit of a rush on Tuesday and am locked into them now - so if a couple of them seem like I'm being willfully ignorant/implausible that's why.
Week 1:
Outright = 11-5
Spread = 7-8-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
All Time:
Outright = 177-96
Spread = 147-122-4
SFBOTW = 9-8-1
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)
Jets @ Patriots -13
Due to my time on the continent this week I had to unconventionally make my selection before writing this. Here's the proof:
A little hindsight: As you can see I didn't feel super comfortable taking the Jets here, Geno hadn't convinced me at all in their win over Tampa. That said, the manner of the Pats win was equally unconvincing so I went with the generous points in an always unpredictable divisional clash. That said, I'm glad the spread wasn't below 10 as I would have probably taken the Pats.
Jets +13 (Pats to win)
Rams @ Falcons -6
St. Louis saw off Arizona in a close one whilst the Falcons fell in a costly loss to NO. I like roles to be reversed here and Atlanta to out score the Rams. They have too much talent to lose back to back games, and I like them to cover by a score at home. The Rams are never a push over though, so could easily break this spread and even grab a cheeky win.
Falcons -6
Browns @ Ravens -6.5
Despite the record setting manner of their defeat, don't stick a fork in the Ravens just yet. They get what should be a comfortable game to bounce back in against an improved but still floundering Browns outfit. Cameron had a good game for the Browns but they still won't have enough to match scores with the Ravens. SFBOTW contender.
Ravens -6.5
Chargers @ Eagles -7.5
Mike McCoy may have breathed new life into SD's offence, but familiar mistakes and a chronic inability to close the game cost them the win. Those same errors will haunt them against a ruthless Chip Kelly barrage, but I think the Bolts will score enough (even if in garbage time) to make this spread weighted in the visitor's favour. This will be one of a few shootouts this week, and it's usually smart to take a significant point spread in shootouts.
Chargers +7.5 (Eagles to win)
Panthers @ Bills +2
Both sides played well in their openers but ultimate fell short against tough opposition and this is a game both need to win if they are to rekindle their hopes of successful seasons. I like the Bills here with the home advantage, but this could swing either way. The Panthers will probably be the obvious choice for many people after keeping the Saints close, but I'm going to go with my gut and call the upset here.
Bills +2 (and to win)
Vikings @ Bears -5.5
A second straight divisional game for the Vikings, coming off their loss to Detroit. Chicago meanwhile capitalised on Bengal mistakes to win their opener. This should be another close run affair, but one the Bears should manage unless we see significant improvement under centre from Minnesota. I like them to win by a score, but this game to easily come down to a FG or less.
Bears -5.5
Redskins @ Packers -9
Fantastic NFC show down here between two post season contenders who both dropped their openers. This is another game where 2 top level QBs will attempt to flex their muscles, so I like 9 points a lot here. The Packers will probably win the game, but in a sun and sangria fueled haze I chose the Redskins earlier and there's no turning back now.
Redskins +9 (and to win, but probably not)
Dolphins @ Colts -1
Both sides won their openers, but both (particularly Indy) struggled more than they were anticipated to. It's a no brainer to back the home side here, but eye this one as a potential upset for Miami. A spread this small is a definite SFBOTW contender, and one I'll be backing heavily.
Colts -1
Cowboys @ Chiefs -3
Neither NY or Dallas looked particularly comfortable in their Sunday night encounter, and whilst it was only the Jags that KC beat down on, the manner of the victory will give them a lot of confidence going into this one. It may surprise you to know KC are the Vegas favourites here, but I'm still going to take Dallas in a tight affair. KC may again be a more popular choice, but I want to see them beat a team of merit before I'm sold.
Cowboys +3 (and to win)
Titans @ Texans -9
Tennessee may have upset Pittsburgh for the second year running, whilst Houston had to pull out all the stops to beat SD, but there's no doubt in my mind who should be winning this game. Look for the Texans to find their rhythm early in a one-sided affair. Feel a little nervy about the size of the spread, so I'll edge on the side of the Titans.
Titans +9 (Texans to win)
Saints @ Buccaneers +3
Credit to NO for winning a crucial divisional opener. With both Tampa and Carolina losing their week 1 games, if NO can reassert old power balances here they will have a commanding position in the NFC South. Whilst there are still big question marks over their defence I believe they will do just that, with Tampa failing to bounce back from their tough loss and falling to a worrying 0-2 start. Another very attractive spread here.
Saints -3
Lions @ Cardinals +1
Fitzgerald is back up and running, and we get treated to seeing probably the two most accomplished pass-catchers on the field in action as Megatron and the Lions come to town. The defences will be the key here, however, as how a shaky Cardinal's o-line copes with a dominant Lions pass rush will be key. I think the Lions will struggle more with an elite Cardinals defence however, with Patrick Peterson limiting their go to passing option.
Cardinals +1 (and to win)
Broncos @ Giants +4
It wasn't quite as spectacular as my tongue in cheek prediction, but Wilson and the Giants' struggles weren't far off. With Big Blue in the hunt for more options at RB this should be another win for Manning and co. Two points of caution: 1. Don't expect 7 TDs again. 2. Eventually Wilson will regain trust and confidence and explode (talent that good won't stay down for long). The spread here makes this my SFBOTW, with big bro showing Eli how it's done.
Broncos -4 SFBOTW
Jaguars @ Raiders -5.5
Oakland surprised me and most of the league by putting on a competitive showing against the Colts. Pryor looks good (or at least good enough to play them out of Bridgewater running), and even with holes all over the roster and a threadbare OT situation they should see off Jacksonville at home. You'll likely never see the Raiders this strong favourites again all year, but I still think they'll cover.
Raiders -5.5
49ers @ Seahawks -3
Outstanding match up and likely the game of the week. The last time these two met it was a Seahawks' demolition, but I see a much tighter affair here. Maybe the two best sides in the NFC, week 1 saw wins for both, and although SF's was far more dominant it was at home, as opposed to Seattle's tough East coast early kick off. This is a brutal game to call and whilst popular opinion probably rides with the Seahawks at century link, I fancy the 49ers to edge it. I don't have any reason, I just feel it in my gambling waters. Either way, take the +3 in a game either side has a shot in and will likely be a nail-biter.
49ers +3 (and to win)
Steelers @ Bengals -7
Pittsburgh went through the grinder in their tough home loss to the Titans, the most notable injury costing them stand out centre Pouncey (the Gator curse continues) for the season. Whilst it isn't game over for the Steelers, it's hard to imagine they could be in much worse of a position to travel to divisional rivals Cincinnati. The Bengals, despite losing week 1 (like the rest of the AFC North), are more than talented enough to show the Steelers who the new apex predators in the division are. The spread is a large one, but justified in my opinion.
Bengals -7
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