Beating the Bookies: Week 9

With last week being something of a rushed one I still managed a respectable showing, putting me over 0.500 overall. Something of a silly choice (in hindsight) for my SFBOTW makes that my only truly ugly category at this stage. It also reinforces the unpredictability of the league that my spread line is better than my outright.

Week 8:

Outright = 9-5
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 60-59
Spread = 62-57
SFBOTW = 3-5

Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5

The Chiefs have struggled mightily in recent weeks, but that shouldn't detract from the fact the Chargers just failed to score a TD vs the Browns. The divisional factor plus having Cassel back means I'll happily take the points.

Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)

Hey Rivers, the 80s called. You have AIDs. 

Broncos @ Bengals +3.5

Manning is a good as anyone anticipated, and should lead a strong Denver squad to the win, covering the spread without too much trouble.

Broncos -3.5 

Ravens @ Browns +3

Let's be clear, the Browns beating SD doesn't mean they are good, just were slightly less shit. Ravens all day.

Ravens -3.5 SFBOTW!!!!!!!

Cleveland have since removed sideline benches to prevent any more attempted player suicides.

Cardinals @ Packers -10

The Cardinals just got shown up at home by less explosive offense. However I do like the match up against GB's pass happy attack, so I'll take the spread.

Cardinals +10 (Packers win)

Bills @ Texans -10

It's a large spread, and it should be. The difference between these two is huge, and whilst 10 makes me a little nervous, the Texans have been blowing similar teams out all year.

No caption necessary.

Texans -10

Dolphins @ Colts +1

Matt Moore picked up the slack with ease to coast past the Jets, but the Colts at home is a tough prospect. This should be another nail biter but I'll keep siding with Luck until he lets me down.

Colts +1 (and to win)

Lions @ Jaguars +3.5

This will be closer than most will anticipate, but I still like Detroit to beat 4 points against one of the weakest teams around.

This needs to happen less if the Bears hope to keep winning.

Lions -3.5

Bears @ Titans +3.5

The Titans don't have enough weapons to beat a dominant Bears' defence, and Chicago's o-line should hold up better than it did vs Carolina.

Bears -3.5 

Panthers @ Redskins -3.5

I may need to reign back my trend of always backing Washington, because as good as RG3 is, their defence is worse. Having said that, this should be another high scoring affair as Carolina's hasn't been much better so I'll take the home side (with some reservations).

Redskins -3.5

Buccs @ Raiders -1

Tampa came in against a tougher opponent last week and grabbed the win, so I'll take them to do the same against Oakland who typically struggle to post back to back results.

Buccs +1 (and to win)

Vikings @ Seahawks -5

The Vikings are doing their best impression of the 2011 Bills, and I predict their collapse to continue vs an perennially dominant home Seattle side.

Hawks -5

Steelers @ Giants -3.5

Both sides coming off a big win so this should be a good match up. I fancy the Steelers to keep this just close enough.

Steelers +3.5 (Giants to win)

If you combined Romo's ability with Manning's face you could have the ultimate retard QB.

Cowboys @ Falcons -4.5

Atlanta are still the best team in the league, and a woefully inconsistent Cowboys' squad shouldn't pose much threat to that.

Falcons -4.5

Actually being able to fly might help the Eagles win a game. 

Eagles @ Saints -3.5

Tough one with two under performing sides. The Saints' defence is lot worse, but Philly seem to be under a lot more pressure to win. That said, the Eagles managed to avoid turning the ball over last week despite the loss, so I'll pick them although in truth this could go either way.

Eagles +3.5 (And to win)

**Odds accurate as of 30/10/2012 via Yahoo's Sportacular app**

Beating the Bookies: Week 8

With Tommy galavanting around New York, I'm posting his predictions for this week as I received them in an e-mail. A big week for him saves his blushes slightly by raising the season tallies to almost 50%. You're almost as good as a coin flip mate! Anyway, on to his predictions...

A personal best and an outstanding week both outright, spread and financially. Shame I don't have room the brag properly as this will be a rushed one written on shitty Amtrak wi-fi. Apologies for lack of pictures and formatting.

Week 7:

Outright - 12/14
Spread - 11/14
SFBOTW - 1/1

Overall:
Outright - 51/105
Spread - 52/105
SFBOTW - 3/7

Buccs @ Vikings -6.5
Tough one but I like this to be a close game so I'll take the points.

Buccs +6.5 (Vikes win)

Panthers @ Bears -9
The Bears have maybe the best defence in the league so this could get out of hand, but 9 is a lot.

Panthers +9 (Bears win)

Seahawks @ Lions -1
The Lions are shit and only have a passing game, the Hawks are good and have an awesome secondary. This is only going one way.

Seahawks +1 (and to win) SFBOTW

Packers @ Jaguars +16
This will be a slaughter but you have to take a 3 score margin.

Jags +16 (Pack win)

Dolphins @ Jets -1
Another evenly matched encounter and in truth this could go either way. Home field and experience to get the W.

Jets -1

Chargers @ Browns +2.5
The Chargers are better than they performed second half last week, the Browns are not a good football team. I like SD to bounce back after the bye.

Chargers -2.5

Falcons @ Eagles -1
Another very tasty bet, the 6-0 Falcons as underdogs vs the turnover prone Eagles? Yes please.

Falcons +1 (and to win)

Redskins @ Steelers 4.5
Another one I feel very comfortable calling. RG3 is as good as billed and will make life difficult for Pittsburgh in what could be a shoot out.

Skins +4.5 (and to win)

Pats @ Rams +7
The Rams just got shown up by the Packers. Despite coming off a narrow divisional win I like NE to do the same. Plus it's in London so no home field for the Rams.

Pats -7

Colts @ Titans -3.5
Tough one. Titans just out scored the Bills and CJ exploded, but the Colts have been strong at home all year. I'll take the spread.

Colts +3.5 (Titans win)

Raiders @ Chiefs -1
I will never, ever, bet on Brady Quinn at less than a score, even if they are playing Oakland.

Raiders +1 (and to win)

Giants @ Cowboys +1
NY are the better team, but they struggled and looked pretty rough at times vs the Skins. The 'boys just lost Stephen Hill for the year though so I'll take the visitors.

Giants -1

Saints @ Broncos -6
The Saints offence is elite, the defence though is probably the worse in the league. I can't see them stopping Manning anywhere near enough to keep this close.

Broncos -6

49ers @ Cardinals +6.5
The Cardinals have lost 3 in a row and this will make it 4. San Fran should cover the spread.

49ers -6.5

Kick It Out

Before reading this I encourage you to go watch this and this.

Thirteen months ago football would have had you believe that racism was no longer an issue. It had been largely swept under the carpet and many higher up types congratulated themselves on a job well done. In the year since, this theory has been shown to be completely unfounded. The John Terry and Luis Suarez affairs put a national spotlight on the issue in England, and it seems to be rearing its ugly head across Europe every few weeks at the moment. I was at the Tottenham vs Lazio game in September that saw UEFA investigate the racist chanting heard from the visiting supporters. Upon hearing it in person your heart sinks to your stomach. What could the authorities do to quell this in the moment? This is why UEFA must make an example of the Serbian FA for the behaviour at tonight's game.

For anyone who hasn't clicked the above links and watched the video, England's Under 21s came under a barrage of abuse for most of the game, according to comments by Jordan Henderson, and were the target of missiles thrown on to the pitch. Much of this abuse was racially charged, with monkey noises clearly audible on the second of the above videos. England's players reacted angrily, as most anyone would in a similar situation, and Danny Rose, one of England's black players, was shown a red card for kicking a ball into the crowd in retaliation. A few skirmishes and scuffles then broke out on the pitch and down the tunnel. The only upside, if it can be seen as such, of this scene descending into on-field violence is that it means UEFA cannot ignore it, as they have been seen to have done on similar occasions in the past.

Severe punishments need to be handed out. If English football can be banned from European competition for two years because of the behaviour of its fans, as it was in the aftermath of the Heysel disaster, then UEFA needs to take similar action against Serbia in the wake of this abuse. Make the national team play games behind closed doors, exclude their club teams, do something to make an example of the Serbian FA, and for once be seen to be taking a stand on an issue.

Beating the Bookies: Week 7

Maybe my worst week yet (but bizarrely personally my most profitable) sees my overalls take another nasty hit. You should probably start betting against whatever I predict at this point. 

Week 5:

Outright: 5/14

Spread: 5/14

SFBOTW: 0/1

Overall:

Outright - 39/91

Spread - 41/91

SFBOTW - 2/6

Seahawks @ 49ers -7.5

This is awkward.

You have to like the points in this NFC West showdown. Whilst I except San Fran to play a lot better and Seattle to play a bit worse they should still make a game of it in primetime.

Seahawks +7.5 (49ers win)

Titans @ Bills -3

I'm going to go with the visitors here. Both teams are pretty poor but coming off upset wins, so it could go either way.

Titans +3 (and to win)

Cowboys @ Panthers +1

This is another evenly matched game between two teams who think they are a lot better than they are. I'll take the homefield and the points even though I probably shouldn't.

Panthers +1 (and to win)

Ravens @ Texans -6

I would have been all over the Ravens at these odds before they lost their two defensive lynch pins in Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb (making it 3 of their 5 best defenders out of the year). As such I'll shy away from this one where money is concerned but let's say the Texans for the sake of it.

Texans -6 (and to win)

What beautiful triceps you had Mr. Lewis.

Browns @ Colts -3

Winning a game is not something the Browns are used to handling. I'm gonna say they are still in shock and will be 3 scores down by the second quarter.

Colts -3 

I'd let him make me aware of breast cancer.

Cardinals @ Vikings -6

A very nice match-up between two teams with great defences. Kolb should find Jared Allen introducing him to ground a fair bit, but the Cards are the masters of the close game finish so I'll pick them to beat a healthy spread.

Cardinals +6 (Vikings to win)

Redskins @ Giants -6.5

As I'll be there trying to get RG3 to give me his phone number I'll call the big upset here.

Redskins +6.5 (and to win)

Packers @ Rams +5

St. Louis have been good at home, but not good enough to beat the Packers whilst still missing their best receiver. 

Packers -5

It'll be St. Louis' turn at free-fall come Sunday

Doing his best Matt Cassell impression.

Saints @ Buccs +2.5

Vegas may still think the Saints are rudderless, but I do not. SFBOTW time! (I'm aware that my sure fire bets have not been firing lately, and I vow never to trust the Bengals ever again).

Saints -2.5 SFBOTW!!!!

Correctly identifying the end zone for the 1st time since week 1.

Jets @ Patriots -10.5

It's a big spread with NY coming off a healthy win and the Pats off a demoralising (not to mention physical) loss. I'll take it, but wouldn't be surprised if the Pats send a statement.

Jets +10.5 (Pats to win)

The legion of boom showing how it is done.

Anyone would be shocked at losing to the Titans.

Jaguars @ Raiders -4

This will be an ugly game for the neutrals, and whilst it could be close I like the Raiders to overwhelm Jacksonville in a hostile environment.

Raiders -4

Steelers @ Bengals +1

Very tempting odds here, both teams coming off bad losses to underdogs. I like Pittsburgh to have the toughness to bounce back.

Steelers -1

Lions @ Bears -5.5

Chicago should be rested up and ready coming off their bye. I can see Megatron having a big day vs a smaller secondary, but the Bears are the better team.

Bears -5.5 

*All odds accurate as of 16/10/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App.*

Beating the Bookies: Week 6

A decent week outright but a bad showing on the spread leaves me with some ground to make up on this week. As we move forward Vegas seems to have toughened up as it's a hard set to call this time (or maybe I'm just realising that my perceptions of teams are stupid).

Week 5:

Outright: 9/14

Spread: 5/14

SFBOTW: 0/1

Season:

Outright: 34/77

Spread: 36/77

SFBOTW: 2/5

Steelers @ Titans +5.5

For some reason I'm smelling a close game here. It could well be a blow out, but I'll go with my gut.

Titans +5.5 (Steelers win)

Says a lot when losing a leg is the 2nd worst injury in a game.

Raiders @ Falcons -9.5

I'm fairly confident the Falcons can win this one by two scores, even if the Raiders are rested up off their bye. 

Falcons -9.5

Cowboys @ Ravens -3.5

Romo will probably ball out this week, but you have to like the Ravens at these odds. Might have been my SFBOTW if they hadn't let me down against the Chiefs.

Ravens -3.5

Bullying is unacceptable in the modern day workplace.

Bengals @ Browns +1

I feel like the bookies are giving the Browns a little too much credit here. Yeah it could well be close, but with a practically negligible spread I'm going Cincy all day.

Bengals -1 SFBOTW

Rams @ Dolphins -3.5

Very interesting one here. Losing Amendola is a big blow for the Rams, but they still have an AWESOME kicker. Am I right? 

Rams +3.5 (and to win)

Colts @ Jets -3

I fancy to Jets to scrape a result here, but I don't see them as 3 point favourites by any means. I'll trust my Luck on this one (I'm surprised that's taken me to week 6 to use to be honest).

Colts + 3 (Jets to win)

Lions @ Eagles -4.5

"Just pretend you can't hear those nasty boys, Matt."

Should be pretty clear cut if Philly can avoid a melt down. The Lions have pretty dire this year, all things considered.

Eagles -4.5

Chiefs @ Buccs -3.5

Could go either way but I see the Buccs as having a very slight edge. 

Buccs -3.5

Bills @ Cardinals -4.5

This really should be no contest based on form, but the Cards are the classic case of a team that struggles against shitty teams then dominates the good ones. In truth though this is their game to lose. 

Cards -4.5

Patriots @ Seahawks +3.5

Very nice match-up, with Brady facing the defensive line that made Rodgers' life a misery a couple of weeks ago. I fancy the Pats to grab a result, but not by much more than the spread.

Patriots -3.5

NY are going to be a different sort of upside down come Sunday

Giants @ 49ers -5

This game should be awesome, and I'm taking the Niners all day over NYG. Revenge is a dish best served soon, and this game couldn't come soon enough for San Fran who should go out fired up.

49ers -5 

Vikings @ Redskins -1.5

A potentially Cousins led Redskins is a risky proposition, so I'll side with the safe solid bet and take the Vikes.

Vikings +1.5 (and to win)

Packers @ Texans -3.5

Another great game lined up. Losing Cushing for the year is a big blow, and the Packers are a cut above anyone the Texans have faced so far. 

Packers +3.5 (and to win)

A loss here could put the Packers' season on the cart.

Broncos @ Chargers -1

A crucial divisional match-up - I like SD on home turf, but this could really go either way. Hopefully Rivers can be the same thorn in Manning's side in his new outfit that he was in Indy. 

Chargers -1

Beating the Bookies: Week 5

A return to normality for the NFL after the craziness of week 4, and with it a solid 2/3 games called correctly, plus over half the spread. It’ll take a lot more of that to get me back to respectability (and profit).

Week 4:

Outright: 11/15

Spread: 8/15

SFBOTW: 1/1

Season:

Outright: 34/63

Spread: 31/63

SFBOTW: 2/4

Cardinals @ Rams +1

This game will be hairier than Jeff's mustache. Could go either way as the Rams have been a force at home. 

Cardinals -1 

Dolphins @ Bengals -4

Cincy have been pretty predictable so far and I can't see them slipping up at home to poor opposition. However a weakened secondary could struggle vs NFL leading receiver Brian Hartline (yep, you heard it right).

Bengals -4 

This scrappy route runner has a high motor and his intangibles are off the charts. 

Packers @ Colts +7

GB should win, but I like the Colts to run them close in an emotional game for the home side.

Colts +7 (Packers to win)

Ravens @ Chiefs +5

Baltimore should soar past the Chiefs. If you are routed by Philip Rivers you should probably just give up and apply for membership in the LFL.

I wish we lived in ancient Sparta

Ravens -5 SFBOTW

Browns @ Giants -9.5

This one could get uglier than a baby Manning. It's a big spread though, and given how close they pushed the Ravens I'll take the points.

Browns +9.5 (Giants to win)

Eagles @ Steelers -3.5

The Eagles have not travelled well so far, and a trip to the Steel City against a rested up Pittsburgh is the stuff nightmares are made of.

Steelers -3.5

Falcons @ Redskins +3

You have to like Atlanta to beat the Skins even though they've both been playing well. 3 points is not a lot in a game that should light up the scoreboard.

Falcons -3

Seahawks @ Panthers -3

Is there some magic voodoo juice in the drinking water in Seattle? A team that was dominated two good teams at home turns into a shivering wreck when made to play away. Unfortunately for the Hawks both those losses were divisional, and I can't see the record getting changed here.

Panthers -3

Bears @ Jaguars +6

Such backward franchises. Planking was so 2011. 

Not a very big spread considering the way these two teams played last week. I have big question marks over Chicago this year, but less than a TD vs the Jags? Come on now...

Bears -6

Titans @ Vikings -6

The Vikings will win this football game, but I'm not wholly convinced they'll win it by 6 points. Still, I'd go with Ponder and AP over Hasslebeck and CJ.

Vikings -6

Broncos @ Patriots -6.5

Manning vs Brady in a game that definitely won't settle the which overrated QB is the best debate. Still, it should be fun to watch. I hope they both get sacked 10 times. 

Broncos +6.5 (Patriots to win)

Two very different masturbation techniques.

Bills @ 49ers -9.5

It's a large spread, and it should be. The Bills are going to get steamrollered. I feel quite confident the Niners will beat them by two scores.

One time Charger, long time man-crush.

49ers -9.5

Chargers @ Saints -3.5

Yep, I'll take the spread when a 3-1 team plays a 4-0 team and still has the handicap. The Saints aren't nearly as bad as their record suggests so it should be a close one.

Chargers +3.5 (and to win)

Texans @ Jets +9

Houston's running game is going to ride rough-shod over a Jets' team well and truley on the rocks. First Revis, now Holmes. Fuck it, may as well jump everyone to it by a week: 

"Teeeeeeboooowww. Teeeeeeeeeeebooowww. Teeeebbbooowwwww." Only you can save this team from a pathetic losing season. They'll still lose with him, but at least they'll have the moral high ground. 

Texans -9

He'll save your souls but not your football team.

*All odds accurate as of 03/10/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App.*