Beating the Bookies: Week 9

With last week being something of a rushed one I still managed a respectable showing, putting me over 0.500 overall. Something of a silly choice (in hindsight) for my SFBOTW makes that my only truly ugly category at this stage. It also reinforces the unpredictability of the league that my spread line is better than my outright.

Week 8:

Outright = 9-5
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 60-59
Spread = 62-57
SFBOTW = 3-5

Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5

The Chiefs have struggled mightily in recent weeks, but that shouldn't detract from the fact the Chargers just failed to score a TD vs the Browns. The divisional factor plus having Cassel back means I'll happily take the points.

Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)

Hey Rivers, the 80s called. You have AIDs. 

Broncos @ Bengals +3.5

Manning is a good as anyone anticipated, and should lead a strong Denver squad to the win, covering the spread without too much trouble.

Broncos -3.5 

Ravens @ Browns +3

Let's be clear, the Browns beating SD doesn't mean they are good, just were slightly less shit. Ravens all day.

Ravens -3.5 SFBOTW!!!!!!!

Cleveland have since removed sideline benches to prevent any more attempted player suicides.

Cardinals @ Packers -10

The Cardinals just got shown up at home by less explosive offense. However I do like the match up against GB's pass happy attack, so I'll take the spread.

Cardinals +10 (Packers win)

Bills @ Texans -10

It's a large spread, and it should be. The difference between these two is huge, and whilst 10 makes me a little nervous, the Texans have been blowing similar teams out all year.

No caption necessary.

Texans -10

Dolphins @ Colts +1

Matt Moore picked up the slack with ease to coast past the Jets, but the Colts at home is a tough prospect. This should be another nail biter but I'll keep siding with Luck until he lets me down.

Colts +1 (and to win)

Lions @ Jaguars +3.5

This will be closer than most will anticipate, but I still like Detroit to beat 4 points against one of the weakest teams around.

This needs to happen less if the Bears hope to keep winning.

Lions -3.5

Bears @ Titans +3.5

The Titans don't have enough weapons to beat a dominant Bears' defence, and Chicago's o-line should hold up better than it did vs Carolina.

Bears -3.5 

Panthers @ Redskins -3.5

I may need to reign back my trend of always backing Washington, because as good as RG3 is, their defence is worse. Having said that, this should be another high scoring affair as Carolina's hasn't been much better so I'll take the home side (with some reservations).

Redskins -3.5

Buccs @ Raiders -1

Tampa came in against a tougher opponent last week and grabbed the win, so I'll take them to do the same against Oakland who typically struggle to post back to back results.

Buccs +1 (and to win)

Vikings @ Seahawks -5

The Vikings are doing their best impression of the 2011 Bills, and I predict their collapse to continue vs an perennially dominant home Seattle side.

Hawks -5

Steelers @ Giants -3.5

Both sides coming off a big win so this should be a good match up. I fancy the Steelers to keep this just close enough.

Steelers +3.5 (Giants to win)

If you combined Romo's ability with Manning's face you could have the ultimate retard QB.

Cowboys @ Falcons -4.5

Atlanta are still the best team in the league, and a woefully inconsistent Cowboys' squad shouldn't pose much threat to that.

Falcons -4.5

Actually being able to fly might help the Eagles win a game. 

Eagles @ Saints -3.5

Tough one with two under performing sides. The Saints' defence is lot worse, but Philly seem to be under a lot more pressure to win. That said, the Eagles managed to avoid turning the ball over last week despite the loss, so I'll pick them although in truth this could go either way.

Eagles +3.5 (And to win)

**Odds accurate as of 30/10/2012 via Yahoo's Sportacular app**