... and then there were 4. Some may view last week's divisional round as a bit of a comedown after the heady action of wildcard week (with all the favourites winning, and all but one of the games over some time before the final drive, they have a point), but it was still a great weekend of football - and this week's match ups should leave mouths watering.
I went a flawless 4-0 outright (although I did wimp out and take all the favourites), and a not too shabby 2-1-1 on the spread, with my SFBOTW ultimately hitting with ease (although it looked in serious doubt there for a long time).
Wildcard:
Outright = 4-0
Spread = 2-1-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 171-94
Spread = 134-126-5
SFBOTW = 11-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 337-185
Spread = 274-240-8
SFBOTW = 19-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Sunday 20:00
Patriots @ Broncos -5.5
New England destroyed the Colts off the back of a breakout performance from Blount, and it a clear warning sign when they score 43 points without Brady throwing a single TD. The Broncos on the other hand were looking even more dominate before allowing Keenan Allen to almost shock them in the 4th quarter, ultimately having to rely on a clutch drive from Manning to keep the clock ticking to victory and prevent OT.
Whilst most people will be high on the Broncos (no pun intended) at home, I think the Pats have more than enough to match them here. Their bruising running game will test Denver in a way the Mathews-less Chargers couldn't, and it is very hard to count Belichick and Brady out. I'm no Patriots fan by any stretch, but I have a gut feeling they'll pull off an upset here.
With a spread of 5.5 I'm obviously going to be very happy backing NE with the points. I'm not obliged to give a Sure Fire Bet when the options get so low, but I'll brand it with one anyway - I'm that confident it will be a close one.
Patriots +5.5 (and to win) SFBOTW
Sunday 23:30
49ers @ Seahawks -3.5
A match up that makes Brady and Manning's rivalry look like an exhibition game, this heated grudge match is sure to get even more intense when the prize is a Super Bowl berth. With both teams winning fairly comfortably in the divisional round (even if it wasn't always one way traffic in either game) you could make a legitimate case for both Seattle and SF being the more deserving in this one.
If this was in SF or on neutral territory I would argue this is a finely balanced affair. Seattle, whilst impressive, are vulnerable on the interior of their offensive line - and San Fran will need their own offence to be on point in order to score against Seattle's elite defence. However, with the game being at Century Link (where Wilson is 16-1) the 'Hawks clearly have the edge in my mind. We might not see any more Beast-quakes, but the noise should rattle the Niners just enough to give the home side the advantage.
All that aside, I'm not sure there are two more similarly built teams in the league right now, and in a game where two superlative defences go head to head (not literally) it will likely be whichever side's offence manages to take it's chances the most effectively. I like the 'Hawks to grab this and head into the SB favourites to hoist the Lombardi.
The spread is small, but in a game this tight it could well be the difference. That said, I think I still like Seattle to cover, but tweaking it a half point extra their way would make me feel a lot safer.
Seahawks -3.5
Friday, 17 January 2014
Tuesday, 7 January 2014
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Divisional Round
After a wildly entertaining regular season, the first week of the play-offs did not disappoint. With an unbelievable shoot-out to open, followed by 3 impressive road performances, one or two of these teams could easily carve an unlikely path to the Super Bowl.
I went 2-2 outright (which I'm not too aggrieved at considering the Chiefs should have won), and a solid 3-1 on the spread with my SFBOTW hitting with plenty of slack, thanks Dalts.
Wildcard:
Outright = 2-2
Spread = 3-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 167-94
Spread = 132-125-4
SFBOTW = 10-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 333-185
Spread = 272-239-7
SFBOTW = 18-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Saturday Evening
Saints @ Seahawks -8
New Orleans put their road daemons to bed in their victory over Philly, but there aren't many tougher places to visit, especially in the post-season, than CenturyLink - and I'm sure Saints' fans are still haunted by aftershocks from that run back in 2011 when the 7-9 'Hawks upset their visitors. However, a lot has changed since then, and now Seattle are rightful favourites. I really can't see them losing this, as impressive as Rob Ryan's defence was against Philly, I like Seattle's own to stifle the Saints' running game and their defence to give them plenty of great opportunities.
The spread is large, and we've seen how close the first round was. I'm flipping this.
Saints +8 ('Hawks to win)
Saturday Night
Colts @ Patriots -7.5
Luck showed why he is held in such high regard with the most improbable (and somewhat fortunate) of comebacks against KC. The Chiefs will be kicking themselves that they let a 28 point (!) lead slip away, and will be wondering what could have been if players like Charles, Davis and Avery had stayed healthy throughout the night. The Patriots are not the powerhouse they once were, and this is a very winnable game for the visitors - but I find it very hard to back against Belichick and Brady in post-season scenarios, especially when the Colt's D gave up so many points so quickly last week. The Colts will need their luck to continue to grab a road win here.
Again, with a spread over a TD I'd be foolish to not turn this over.
Colts +7.5 (Patriots win)
Sunday Evening
49ers @ Panthers +2
In my opinion the toughest game of the week to call, as these two NFC teams both have imposing defences and offences capable of scoring plenty of points. I believe the advantage will go to whoever can establish and maintain their running game (including both dual threat QBs) more effectively, as I don't think either team's passing attack can carry them through a game of this magnitude. I have to take San Fran here, as their overall quality is that bit greater - but I would not be at all shocked to see the Panthers grab this one.
The spread is small enough that I'll choose to ignore it.
49ers -2
Chargers @ Broncos -10
San Diego feasted on turnovers from the Bengals in what was surprisingly the most one sided of all the wildcard games. However, as impressive as the Chargers' shutdown of the Bengals high scoring homefield offence was, they'll face a much tougher test in Manning's Broncos this week. As we're all aware, the Bolts went into Denver and snatched a win 3 weeks ago, but I can't see that happening again, as much as (wearing my personal leanings on my sleeve) I'd love it to. The Broncos whilst without Von Miller and other defensive personnel do gain Wes Welker back healthy, whose absence in their last meeting was clear on the home side's many failed 3rd down attempts. Likewise, the Chargers' Ryan Mathews re-aggravated his ankle injury in their win over Cincy, and without him healthy enough to headline a running game designed to keep the Broncos' deadly offence off the field, they could struggle. That said, they have as much a chance as anyone of beating Denver, and Manning does have his post-season question marks.
The spread is bountiful, and it would be rude not to.
Chargers +10 (Broncos to win) SFBOTW
I went 2-2 outright (which I'm not too aggrieved at considering the Chiefs should have won), and a solid 3-1 on the spread with my SFBOTW hitting with plenty of slack, thanks Dalts.
Wildcard:
Outright = 2-2
Spread = 3-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 167-94
Spread = 132-125-4
SFBOTW = 10-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 333-185
Spread = 272-239-7
SFBOTW = 18-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Saturday Evening
Saints @ Seahawks -8
New Orleans put their road daemons to bed in their victory over Philly, but there aren't many tougher places to visit, especially in the post-season, than CenturyLink - and I'm sure Saints' fans are still haunted by aftershocks from that run back in 2011 when the 7-9 'Hawks upset their visitors. However, a lot has changed since then, and now Seattle are rightful favourites. I really can't see them losing this, as impressive as Rob Ryan's defence was against Philly, I like Seattle's own to stifle the Saints' running game and their defence to give them plenty of great opportunities.
The spread is large, and we've seen how close the first round was. I'm flipping this.
Saints +8 ('Hawks to win)
Saturday Night
Colts @ Patriots -7.5
Luck showed why he is held in such high regard with the most improbable (and somewhat fortunate) of comebacks against KC. The Chiefs will be kicking themselves that they let a 28 point (!) lead slip away, and will be wondering what could have been if players like Charles, Davis and Avery had stayed healthy throughout the night. The Patriots are not the powerhouse they once were, and this is a very winnable game for the visitors - but I find it very hard to back against Belichick and Brady in post-season scenarios, especially when the Colt's D gave up so many points so quickly last week. The Colts will need their luck to continue to grab a road win here.
Again, with a spread over a TD I'd be foolish to not turn this over.
Colts +7.5 (Patriots win)
Sunday Evening
49ers @ Panthers +2
In my opinion the toughest game of the week to call, as these two NFC teams both have imposing defences and offences capable of scoring plenty of points. I believe the advantage will go to whoever can establish and maintain their running game (including both dual threat QBs) more effectively, as I don't think either team's passing attack can carry them through a game of this magnitude. I have to take San Fran here, as their overall quality is that bit greater - but I would not be at all shocked to see the Panthers grab this one.
The spread is small enough that I'll choose to ignore it.
49ers -2
Chargers @ Broncos -10
San Diego feasted on turnovers from the Bengals in what was surprisingly the most one sided of all the wildcard games. However, as impressive as the Chargers' shutdown of the Bengals high scoring homefield offence was, they'll face a much tougher test in Manning's Broncos this week. As we're all aware, the Bolts went into Denver and snatched a win 3 weeks ago, but I can't see that happening again, as much as (wearing my personal leanings on my sleeve) I'd love it to. The Broncos whilst without Von Miller and other defensive personnel do gain Wes Welker back healthy, whose absence in their last meeting was clear on the home side's many failed 3rd down attempts. Likewise, the Chargers' Ryan Mathews re-aggravated his ankle injury in their win over Cincy, and without him healthy enough to headline a running game designed to keep the Broncos' deadly offence off the field, they could struggle. That said, they have as much a chance as anyone of beating Denver, and Manning does have his post-season question marks.
The spread is bountiful, and it would be rude not to.
Chargers +10 (Broncos to win) SFBOTW
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