Tuesday, 7 January 2014

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Divisional Round

After a wildly entertaining regular season, the first week of the play-offs did not disappoint. With an unbelievable shoot-out to open, followed by 3 impressive road performances, one or two of these teams could easily carve an unlikely path to the Super Bowl. 

I went 2-2 outright (which I'm not too aggrieved at considering the Chiefs should have won), and a solid 3-1 on the spread with my SFBOTW hitting with plenty of slack, thanks Dalts. 

Wildcard:
Outright = 2-2
Spread = 3-1
SFBOTW = 1-0

2013/14:

Outright = 167-94
Spread = 132-125-4
SFBOTW = 10-8

Animal Corner = 3-1

All Time:
Outright = 333-185
Spread = 272-239-7
SFBOTW = 18-16-1 
Animal Corner = 7-3-1



Saturday Evening

Saints @ Seahawks -8

New Orleans put their road daemons to bed in their victory over Philly, but there aren't many tougher places to visit, especially in the post-season, than CenturyLink - and I'm sure Saints' fans are still haunted by aftershocks from that run back in 2011 when the 7-9 'Hawks upset their visitors. However, a lot has changed since then, and now Seattle are rightful favourites. I really can't see them losing this, as impressive as Rob Ryan's defence was against Philly, I like Seattle's own to stifle the Saints' running game and their defence to give them plenty of great opportunities. 

The spread is large, and we've seen how close the first round was. I'm flipping this.

Saints +8 ('Hawks to win)

Saturday Night

Colts @ Patriots -7.5

Luck showed why he is held in such high regard with the most improbable (and somewhat fortunate) of comebacks against KC. The Chiefs will be kicking themselves that they let a 28 point (!) lead slip away, and will be wondering what could have been if players like Charles, Davis and Avery had stayed healthy throughout the night. The Patriots are not the powerhouse they once were, and this is a very winnable game for the visitors - but I find it very hard to back against Belichick and Brady in post-season scenarios, especially when the Colt's D gave up so many points so quickly last week. The Colts will need their luck to continue to grab a road win here. 

Again, with a spread over a TD I'd be foolish to not turn this over.

Colts +7.5 (Patriots win)

Sunday Evening

49ers @ Panthers +2

In my opinion the toughest game of the week to call, as these two NFC teams both have imposing defences and offences capable of scoring plenty of points. I believe the advantage will go to whoever can establish and maintain their running game (including both dual threat QBs) more effectively, as I don't think either team's passing attack can carry them through a game of this magnitude. I have to take San Fran here, as their overall quality is that bit greater - but I would not be at all shocked to see the Panthers grab this one.

The spread is small enough that I'll choose to ignore it.


49ers -2 


Chargers @ Broncos -10

San Diego feasted on turnovers from the Bengals in what was surprisingly the most one sided of all the wildcard games. However, as impressive as the Chargers' shutdown of the Bengals high scoring homefield offence was, they'll face a much tougher test in Manning's Broncos this week. As we're all aware, the Bolts went into Denver and snatched a win 3 weeks ago, but I can't see that happening again, as much as (wearing my personal leanings on my sleeve) I'd love it to. The Broncos whilst without Von Miller and other defensive personnel do gain Wes Welker back healthy, whose absence in their last meeting was clear on the home side's many failed 3rd down attempts. Likewise, the Chargers' Ryan Mathews re-aggravated his ankle injury in their win over Cincy, and without him healthy enough to headline a running game designed to keep the Broncos' deadly offence off the field, they could struggle. That said, they have as much a chance as anyone of beating Denver, and Manning does have his post-season question marks.

The spread is bountiful, and it would be rude not to.

Chargers +10 (Broncos to win) SFBOTW

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