... and then there were 4. Some may view last week's divisional round as a bit of a comedown after the heady action of wildcard week (with all the favourites winning, and all but one of the games over some time before the final drive, they have a point), but it was still a great weekend of football - and this week's match ups should leave mouths watering.
I went a flawless 4-0 outright (although I did wimp out and take all the favourites), and a not too shabby 2-1-1 on the spread, with my SFBOTW ultimately hitting with ease (although it looked in serious doubt there for a long time).
Wildcard:
Outright = 4-0
Spread = 2-1-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 171-94
Spread = 134-126-5
SFBOTW = 11-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 337-185
Spread = 274-240-8
SFBOTW = 19-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Sunday 20:00
Patriots @ Broncos -5.5
New England destroyed the Colts off the back of a breakout performance from Blount, and it a clear warning sign when they score 43 points without Brady throwing a single TD. The Broncos on the other hand were looking even more dominate before allowing Keenan Allen to almost shock them in the 4th quarter, ultimately having to rely on a clutch drive from Manning to keep the clock ticking to victory and prevent OT.
Whilst most people will be high on the Broncos (no pun intended) at home, I think the Pats have more than enough to match them here. Their bruising running game will test Denver in a way the Mathews-less Chargers couldn't, and it is very hard to count Belichick and Brady out. I'm no Patriots fan by any stretch, but I have a gut feeling they'll pull off an upset here.
With a spread of 5.5 I'm obviously going to be very happy backing NE with the points. I'm not obliged to give a Sure Fire Bet when the options get so low, but I'll brand it with one anyway - I'm that confident it will be a close one.
Patriots +5.5 (and to win) SFBOTW
Sunday 23:30
49ers @ Seahawks -3.5
A match up that makes Brady and Manning's rivalry look like an exhibition game, this heated grudge match is sure to get even more intense when the prize is a Super Bowl berth. With both teams winning fairly comfortably in the divisional round (even if it wasn't always one way traffic in either game) you could make a legitimate case for both Seattle and SF being the more deserving in this one.
If this was in SF or on neutral territory I would argue this is a finely balanced affair. Seattle, whilst impressive, are vulnerable on the interior of their offensive line - and San Fran will need their own offence to be on point in order to score against Seattle's elite defence. However, with the game being at Century Link (where Wilson is 16-1) the 'Hawks clearly have the edge in my mind. We might not see any more Beast-quakes, but the noise should rattle the Niners just enough to give the home side the advantage.
All that aside, I'm not sure there are two more similarly built teams in the league right now, and in a game where two superlative defences go head to head (not literally) it will likely be whichever side's offence manages to take it's chances the most effectively. I like the 'Hawks to grab this and head into the SB favourites to hoist the Lombardi.
The spread is small, but in a game this tight it could well be the difference. That said, I think I still like Seattle to cover, but tweaking it a half point extra their way would make me feel a lot safer.
Seahawks -3.5
Friday, 17 January 2014
Tuesday, 7 January 2014
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Divisional Round
After a wildly entertaining regular season, the first week of the play-offs did not disappoint. With an unbelievable shoot-out to open, followed by 3 impressive road performances, one or two of these teams could easily carve an unlikely path to the Super Bowl.
I went 2-2 outright (which I'm not too aggrieved at considering the Chiefs should have won), and a solid 3-1 on the spread with my SFBOTW hitting with plenty of slack, thanks Dalts.
Wildcard:
Outright = 2-2
Spread = 3-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 167-94
Spread = 132-125-4
SFBOTW = 10-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 333-185
Spread = 272-239-7
SFBOTW = 18-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Saturday Evening
Saints @ Seahawks -8
New Orleans put their road daemons to bed in their victory over Philly, but there aren't many tougher places to visit, especially in the post-season, than CenturyLink - and I'm sure Saints' fans are still haunted by aftershocks from that run back in 2011 when the 7-9 'Hawks upset their visitors. However, a lot has changed since then, and now Seattle are rightful favourites. I really can't see them losing this, as impressive as Rob Ryan's defence was against Philly, I like Seattle's own to stifle the Saints' running game and their defence to give them plenty of great opportunities.
The spread is large, and we've seen how close the first round was. I'm flipping this.
Saints +8 ('Hawks to win)
Saturday Night
Colts @ Patriots -7.5
Luck showed why he is held in such high regard with the most improbable (and somewhat fortunate) of comebacks against KC. The Chiefs will be kicking themselves that they let a 28 point (!) lead slip away, and will be wondering what could have been if players like Charles, Davis and Avery had stayed healthy throughout the night. The Patriots are not the powerhouse they once were, and this is a very winnable game for the visitors - but I find it very hard to back against Belichick and Brady in post-season scenarios, especially when the Colt's D gave up so many points so quickly last week. The Colts will need their luck to continue to grab a road win here.
Again, with a spread over a TD I'd be foolish to not turn this over.
Colts +7.5 (Patriots win)
Sunday Evening
49ers @ Panthers +2
In my opinion the toughest game of the week to call, as these two NFC teams both have imposing defences and offences capable of scoring plenty of points. I believe the advantage will go to whoever can establish and maintain their running game (including both dual threat QBs) more effectively, as I don't think either team's passing attack can carry them through a game of this magnitude. I have to take San Fran here, as their overall quality is that bit greater - but I would not be at all shocked to see the Panthers grab this one.
The spread is small enough that I'll choose to ignore it.
49ers -2
Chargers @ Broncos -10
San Diego feasted on turnovers from the Bengals in what was surprisingly the most one sided of all the wildcard games. However, as impressive as the Chargers' shutdown of the Bengals high scoring homefield offence was, they'll face a much tougher test in Manning's Broncos this week. As we're all aware, the Bolts went into Denver and snatched a win 3 weeks ago, but I can't see that happening again, as much as (wearing my personal leanings on my sleeve) I'd love it to. The Broncos whilst without Von Miller and other defensive personnel do gain Wes Welker back healthy, whose absence in their last meeting was clear on the home side's many failed 3rd down attempts. Likewise, the Chargers' Ryan Mathews re-aggravated his ankle injury in their win over Cincy, and without him healthy enough to headline a running game designed to keep the Broncos' deadly offence off the field, they could struggle. That said, they have as much a chance as anyone of beating Denver, and Manning does have his post-season question marks.
The spread is bountiful, and it would be rude not to.
Chargers +10 (Broncos to win) SFBOTW
I went 2-2 outright (which I'm not too aggrieved at considering the Chiefs should have won), and a solid 3-1 on the spread with my SFBOTW hitting with plenty of slack, thanks Dalts.
Wildcard:
Outright = 2-2
Spread = 3-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 167-94
Spread = 132-125-4
SFBOTW = 10-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 333-185
Spread = 272-239-7
SFBOTW = 18-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Saturday Evening
Saints @ Seahawks -8
New Orleans put their road daemons to bed in their victory over Philly, but there aren't many tougher places to visit, especially in the post-season, than CenturyLink - and I'm sure Saints' fans are still haunted by aftershocks from that run back in 2011 when the 7-9 'Hawks upset their visitors. However, a lot has changed since then, and now Seattle are rightful favourites. I really can't see them losing this, as impressive as Rob Ryan's defence was against Philly, I like Seattle's own to stifle the Saints' running game and their defence to give them plenty of great opportunities.
The spread is large, and we've seen how close the first round was. I'm flipping this.
Saints +8 ('Hawks to win)
Saturday Night
Colts @ Patriots -7.5
Luck showed why he is held in such high regard with the most improbable (and somewhat fortunate) of comebacks against KC. The Chiefs will be kicking themselves that they let a 28 point (!) lead slip away, and will be wondering what could have been if players like Charles, Davis and Avery had stayed healthy throughout the night. The Patriots are not the powerhouse they once were, and this is a very winnable game for the visitors - but I find it very hard to back against Belichick and Brady in post-season scenarios, especially when the Colt's D gave up so many points so quickly last week. The Colts will need their luck to continue to grab a road win here.
Again, with a spread over a TD I'd be foolish to not turn this over.
Colts +7.5 (Patriots win)
Sunday Evening
49ers @ Panthers +2
In my opinion the toughest game of the week to call, as these two NFC teams both have imposing defences and offences capable of scoring plenty of points. I believe the advantage will go to whoever can establish and maintain their running game (including both dual threat QBs) more effectively, as I don't think either team's passing attack can carry them through a game of this magnitude. I have to take San Fran here, as their overall quality is that bit greater - but I would not be at all shocked to see the Panthers grab this one.
The spread is small enough that I'll choose to ignore it.
49ers -2
Chargers @ Broncos -10
San Diego feasted on turnovers from the Bengals in what was surprisingly the most one sided of all the wildcard games. However, as impressive as the Chargers' shutdown of the Bengals high scoring homefield offence was, they'll face a much tougher test in Manning's Broncos this week. As we're all aware, the Bolts went into Denver and snatched a win 3 weeks ago, but I can't see that happening again, as much as (wearing my personal leanings on my sleeve) I'd love it to. The Broncos whilst without Von Miller and other defensive personnel do gain Wes Welker back healthy, whose absence in their last meeting was clear on the home side's many failed 3rd down attempts. Likewise, the Chargers' Ryan Mathews re-aggravated his ankle injury in their win over Cincy, and without him healthy enough to headline a running game designed to keep the Broncos' deadly offence off the field, they could struggle. That said, they have as much a chance as anyone of beating Denver, and Manning does have his post-season question marks.
The spread is bountiful, and it would be rude not to.
Chargers +10 (Broncos to win) SFBOTW
Tuesday, 31 December 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: End of Season Review and Wildcard Predictions
Week 17 was certainly an eventful one, and whilst it was a slightly damp note finishing with my worst spread this year at a pathetic 4-12 and my SFBOTW missing again, an impressive 13-3 outright did alleviate that somewhat. Best of all the impossible happened and the Chargers somehow scraped their way into the post-season.
Ultimately it was another solid year outright, finishing with 64% correct (only one game behind my record last year), and beating the vast majority of NFL network analysts.
The spread was less satisfactory at 51% (compared to 55% last season) and whilst it is still encouraging to be (just) in the positive, it is a sign of how much less football I've been able to properly watch this year that I've slipped that little bit.
My sure fire bets were again pretty much consistent with the rest of my predicting, showing that my best guesses are just as good (or bad) as my less confident ones.
In the post-season last year I put on a Flacco-esque clutch performance, only getting one outright wrong, so let's hope I can match that this year...
Week 17:
Outright = 13-3
Spread = 4-12
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 165-92
Spread = 129-124-4
SFBOTW = 9-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 331-183
Spread = 269-238-7
SFBOTW = 17-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Season Trends:
Before we move on to the post-season let's peer into how the year went in more detail. All season I've been keeping track of who I bet on and the consequences - not to try and straighten out any personal leanings but simply as it turns up some amusing and intriguing tendencies.
Each team has 2 scores - the for/against (how often I was right/wrong totalled up) and the backed total (how many times I backed them/went against them).
Top 3 Least Accurate Teams:
The teams I found the least reliable. Hang your heads in shame!
Last year's winner: Carolina (-8).
T3. Bills / Patriots (-6)
An AFC East duo in at number 3, both of which I was on the fence on all year. Both team's injuries no doubt played a part, but for the most part I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
The Bengals were inconsistent in real life, so it's no surprise I found it hard to pin them down on the spread. I trended towards backing them at +4, but it was the times I went against them that hurt me. All 6 times I picked their opponents they failed to beat the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-14)
-14... there are no words, that's almost double how bad I was for Carolina last year. To put it in perspective, it equates to me only picking the correct spread in a Saints game ONCE all year. That's 15 times where I got it wrong. I slightly favoured them at +2, but clearly I was just not on the pulse. I blame their inconsistent away form, and the fact I didn't pick up on it.
Top 3 Most Accurate Teams:
My gold stars of consistency go to the following...
Last year's winner: Tennessee (+10)
3. Chiefs / Giants / Raiders (+6)
A three way tie grabs my bronze medal, KC due to their consistent winning ways - NY and Oakland due to the opposite (happily coinciding with my well established bias against their franchises).
2. Green Bay Packers (+8)
Slightly surprising to see the Packers this high, when they've had what is really a very pedestrian season especially with Rodgers going down. I trended slightly away from them at -2, and was more successful when backing their opponents. Perhaps I cottoned on to their fall from grace earlier than most? Or maybe I was just lucky.
1. Tennessee Titans (+10)
Yes Tennessee. Words cannot say how much I am loving seeing them repeat as my most consistent team. Not only that, but they've perfectly matched their winning score from last year. I have no particular affinity for this franchise (I sat on the fence all year finishing at exactly 0), but they are fast carving out a massive soft spot in my gambling heart. I need to make sure I don't let this colour my view of them for next year - I want to see them back here in 12 months time more than you can imagine.
Most Disregarded Teams:
Those I've backed the least this season, justified?
Last year's winner: Miami (-14)
T2. Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh (-10)
Cleveland (-2 F/A) and Houston (+3 F/A) can be written off as two terrible teams that I didn't shy away from leaning away from. Pittsburgh (0 F/A) was the same early one but I failed to pick up on their change of fortunes until it was too late.
1. New York Giants (-12)
As mentioned earlier, the Giants (+6) sucking was fortunate, as I'd have probably gone against them lot anyway. As it was I finished with a solid positive total on the beleaguered NFC East franchise, only backing them twice and both times hitting on the rare occasions they broke the spread.
BFFs:
Teams I couldn't help myself but keep backing all season - whether it was based on form or band-wagoning I'll let you decide.
Last year's winner: Indianapolis (+14)
2. Cardinals / Chiefs (+6)
I'm not terribly surprised to see either of these two here, and with positive records for both KC (+6) and 'Zona (+2) in terms of for/against I was right to have faith in them. With both
1. Colts / Chargers (+10)
A tie, with (you've guessed it) SD vying with Indy for my most favoured team. I'm not really sure why I've backed the Colts (-2) so much 2 years running (I'm always the one arguing against Luck in the ol' which amazing young QB is the most amazing debate), but you can't argue with statistics. I shouldn't have been so bullish on them as it put me in the negative, but it is interesting that the 3 times I did go against them they beat the spread. Not really a surprise to see the Chargers (0 F/A) here, I'm just happy my bias didn't put me in the negative on them.
Wildcard Predictions
Saturday Evening
Chiefs @ Colts -2.5
The Colts stomped the Chiefs in the regular season a few weeks ago, but with KC effectively coming off a bye week they will be well rested and ready to roll here. I love what Andy Reid has done with this team, and they have more quality than the Colts in almost every position bar QB. I think they have this.
The spread sweetens the pot.
Chiefs +2.5 (and to win)
Saturday Night
Saints @ Eagles -2.5
NO are forced to travel to brave the elements and face Chip Kelly's Eagles, thanks to the latter's dramatic victory over Dallas. As we've all seen, the Saints do not fare well on the road, and the Eagles could carve a deep path in the post-season with their explosive style of offence. I'm going Philly.
The spread doesn't sway me.
Eagles -2.5
Sunday Evening
Chargers @Bengals -7
Somehow the Chargers have snuck in, and I'm over the moon. Especially as this is one of the easier wild card match ups they could have asked for as a #6 seed. This Cincy squad has some playoff experience now, but unfortunately it all involves being one and done. Now, I know the Chargers' struggled to beat KC's backups in the week just gone, but it's easier to imagine how that performance can happen with emotions riding high following the news of the early games. I'm willing to bet if they had played at 6pm it would have been a very different game, and I think SD bring the dangerous offence and opportunistic defence that we saw against Denver into Cincy, and steal a playoff victory.
The spread is big, so obviously I'm lapping it up.
Chargers +7 (and to win) SFBOTW
49ers @ Packers +2.5
Another great game to close out the wild card round, and a rematch of last year where Kaep ran roughshod over the Pack. A lot has changed since then, and this should be a much more even affair, especially with both teams getting key injured personnel back just in time. I like SF to grab this, but it could definitely go either way.
The spread is small, but I think SF should win by a fg.
SF -2.5
Ultimately it was another solid year outright, finishing with 64% correct (only one game behind my record last year), and beating the vast majority of NFL network analysts.
The spread was less satisfactory at 51% (compared to 55% last season) and whilst it is still encouraging to be (just) in the positive, it is a sign of how much less football I've been able to properly watch this year that I've slipped that little bit.
My sure fire bets were again pretty much consistent with the rest of my predicting, showing that my best guesses are just as good (or bad) as my less confident ones.
In the post-season last year I put on a Flacco-esque clutch performance, only getting one outright wrong, so let's hope I can match that this year...
Week 17:
Outright = 13-3
Spread = 4-12
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 165-92
Spread = 129-124-4
SFBOTW = 9-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 331-183
Spread = 269-238-7
SFBOTW = 17-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Season Trends:
Before we move on to the post-season let's peer into how the year went in more detail. All season I've been keeping track of who I bet on and the consequences - not to try and straighten out any personal leanings but simply as it turns up some amusing and intriguing tendencies.
Each team has 2 scores - the for/against (how often I was right/wrong totalled up) and the backed total (how many times I backed them/went against them).
Top 3 Least Accurate Teams:
The teams I found the least reliable. Hang your heads in shame!
Last year's winner: Carolina (-8).
T3. Bills / Patriots (-6)
An AFC East duo in at number 3, both of which I was on the fence on all year. Both team's injuries no doubt played a part, but for the most part I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
The Bengals were inconsistent in real life, so it's no surprise I found it hard to pin them down on the spread. I trended towards backing them at +4, but it was the times I went against them that hurt me. All 6 times I picked their opponents they failed to beat the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-14)
-14... there are no words, that's almost double how bad I was for Carolina last year. To put it in perspective, it equates to me only picking the correct spread in a Saints game ONCE all year. That's 15 times where I got it wrong. I slightly favoured them at +2, but clearly I was just not on the pulse. I blame their inconsistent away form, and the fact I didn't pick up on it.
Top 3 Most Accurate Teams:
My gold stars of consistency go to the following...
Last year's winner: Tennessee (+10)
3. Chiefs / Giants / Raiders (+6)
A three way tie grabs my bronze medal, KC due to their consistent winning ways - NY and Oakland due to the opposite (happily coinciding with my well established bias against their franchises).
2. Green Bay Packers (+8)
Slightly surprising to see the Packers this high, when they've had what is really a very pedestrian season especially with Rodgers going down. I trended slightly away from them at -2, and was more successful when backing their opponents. Perhaps I cottoned on to their fall from grace earlier than most? Or maybe I was just lucky.
1. Tennessee Titans (+10)
Yes Tennessee. Words cannot say how much I am loving seeing them repeat as my most consistent team. Not only that, but they've perfectly matched their winning score from last year. I have no particular affinity for this franchise (I sat on the fence all year finishing at exactly 0), but they are fast carving out a massive soft spot in my gambling heart. I need to make sure I don't let this colour my view of them for next year - I want to see them back here in 12 months time more than you can imagine.
Most Disregarded Teams:
Those I've backed the least this season, justified?
Last year's winner: Miami (-14)
T2. Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh (-10)
Cleveland (-2 F/A) and Houston (+3 F/A) can be written off as two terrible teams that I didn't shy away from leaning away from. Pittsburgh (0 F/A) was the same early one but I failed to pick up on their change of fortunes until it was too late.
1. New York Giants (-12)
As mentioned earlier, the Giants (+6) sucking was fortunate, as I'd have probably gone against them lot anyway. As it was I finished with a solid positive total on the beleaguered NFC East franchise, only backing them twice and both times hitting on the rare occasions they broke the spread.
BFFs:
Teams I couldn't help myself but keep backing all season - whether it was based on form or band-wagoning I'll let you decide.
Last year's winner: Indianapolis (+14)
2. Cardinals / Chiefs (+6)
I'm not terribly surprised to see either of these two here, and with positive records for both KC (+6) and 'Zona (+2) in terms of for/against I was right to have faith in them. With both
1. Colts / Chargers (+10)
A tie, with (you've guessed it) SD vying with Indy for my most favoured team. I'm not really sure why I've backed the Colts (-2) so much 2 years running (I'm always the one arguing against Luck in the ol' which amazing young QB is the most amazing debate), but you can't argue with statistics. I shouldn't have been so bullish on them as it put me in the negative, but it is interesting that the 3 times I did go against them they beat the spread. Not really a surprise to see the Chargers (0 F/A) here, I'm just happy my bias didn't put me in the negative on them.
Wildcard Predictions
Saturday Evening
Chiefs @ Colts -2.5
The Colts stomped the Chiefs in the regular season a few weeks ago, but with KC effectively coming off a bye week they will be well rested and ready to roll here. I love what Andy Reid has done with this team, and they have more quality than the Colts in almost every position bar QB. I think they have this.
The spread sweetens the pot.
Chiefs +2.5 (and to win)
Saturday Night
Saints @ Eagles -2.5
NO are forced to travel to brave the elements and face Chip Kelly's Eagles, thanks to the latter's dramatic victory over Dallas. As we've all seen, the Saints do not fare well on the road, and the Eagles could carve a deep path in the post-season with their explosive style of offence. I'm going Philly.
The spread doesn't sway me.
Eagles -2.5
Sunday Evening
Chargers @Bengals -7
Somehow the Chargers have snuck in, and I'm over the moon. Especially as this is one of the easier wild card match ups they could have asked for as a #6 seed. This Cincy squad has some playoff experience now, but unfortunately it all involves being one and done. Now, I know the Chargers' struggled to beat KC's backups in the week just gone, but it's easier to imagine how that performance can happen with emotions riding high following the news of the early games. I'm willing to bet if they had played at 6pm it would have been a very different game, and I think SD bring the dangerous offence and opportunistic defence that we saw against Denver into Cincy, and steal a playoff victory.
The spread is big, so obviously I'm lapping it up.
Chargers +7 (and to win) SFBOTW
49ers @ Packers +2.5
Another great game to close out the wild card round, and a rematch of last year where Kaep ran roughshod over the Pack. A lot has changed since then, and this should be a much more even affair, especially with both teams getting key injured personnel back just in time. I like SF to grab this, but it could definitely go either way.
The spread is small, but I think SF should win by a fg.
SF -2.5
Thursday, 26 December 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 17
A very solid week at 10-6 on both the spread and the outright, and that's with a fair few upsets from the likes of Buffalo over Miami. The only blemish was my (less than) SFBOTW, which got blown out of the water by about 30 minutes into the first wave.
Here we go, week 17 of the regular season, and the last time we'll see most of these teams in real action until September... Truly there will be some post-Christmas blues for a lot of fans after survival Sunday, and I'm holding out hope I won't be one of them.
Week 16:
Outright = 10-6
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 152-89
Spread = 125-112-4
SFBOTW = 9-7
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 318-180
Spread = 265-226-7
SFBOTW = 17-15-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Sunday First Wave
Panthers @ Falcons -6
An impressive clutch performance from Cam Newton sends the Panthers to the playoffs, but they won't want to let up now against a Falcons team that despite being down and out so very nearly spoiled the 49ers' perfect Candlestick send off. Clearly unless they rest players they aren't in much danger of losing this game.
The spread is large but seeing as Carolina are playing to improve their seeding, I doubt they'll let up.
Panthers -6
Ravens @ Bengals -6
Big game in the AFC, and undoubtedly bigger for Baltimore who could easily make the playoffs with a win here. It gets a little complicated, as they have tie breakers over both SD and Miami individually, but not if both those teams win (then Miami would go through). Needless to say, winning here will be their only focus, but against a Bengals team that still has a (albeit slim) hope of improving their seeding, it won't be an easy game. To make matters worse, Flacco injured his knee in their big loss to NE, and whilst he'll be fine to start it could limit him somewhat. I'm expecting a close game which Cincy squeeze.
The spread is large enough for me to flip this.
Ravens +6 (Bengals to win)
Jaguars @ Colts -11.5
The only thing on the line here is the Colts' seeding, so whilst it is a meaningless game in most regards they'll still be eager to avoid slipping up against their divisional foes. Despite the Jaguars' continued improvement, I'm not expecting any shocks here.
The spread is a biggie, so I'll turn this over.
Jaguars +11.5 (Colts to win)
Jets @ Dolphins -6
Another crucial game in the AFC wildcard hunt, as mentioned above the Dolphins need a win here and some here to make the post-season, but they have likely the easiest shot out of the four contenders which a relatively soft match-up and more importantly a tie-breaker over San Diego. Having said that, the Jets are not going to be a walkover - what with Tannehill also going down in the Bills game (in which they played very poorly regardless) and Rex Ryan effectively coaching for his job. Tannehill should still play, but like Flacco he could be hobbled, so I'm still expecting a Dolphins win and January football for Miami.
The spread is big enough that I think the Jets could close it, and to be honest I'm rooting hard that they manage to pull this off.
Jets +6 (Dolphins win)
Lions @ Vikings -3
Oh dear Detroit, losing like that to the Giants was poor, and Jim Swartz looks like he'll (finally) to looking for a new job. Whoever takes over the Lions will be in a great position to win with a roster loaded with talent. The play of Stafford is a concern, and I could easily see them coming in with battered morale and losing to a Vikings side that has beaten the likes of Philly at home in recent weeks. In a game with nothing to play for, Minnesota have more pride right now.
The spread is only 3 points but as I'm expecting a close run thing I'll hedge my bets.
Lions +3 (Vikings to win)
Redskins @ Giants -3.5
A meaningless game in terms of the playoffs, but I'm sure the Skins and Giants won't see it that way. Last year's game was a cracking match up with an electric finish, but both these outfits have fallen a long way since then. I'm expecting both offences to find the endzone fairly often, and this could go either way. I'll take the Redskins to clinch it, as going against the Giants has worked so often for me this year.
The spread definitely cements my opinion.
Redskins +3.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Steelers -7
The Steelers CAN still make the playoffs, somehow, but they'll need a win here plus losses from Miami, SD and Balimore. Stranger things have happened, and I can definitely see them taking care of their own business here. Cleveland are more than capable of making things interesting, but Pittsburgh shouldn't really be losing this at home.
The spread is hefty enough to swing me.
Browns +7 (Steelers win)
Texans @ Titans -7
A thoroughly pointless game which will only decide draft order, and I don't expect a solid Titans side to lose here with the Texans already more focused on scouting Bridgewater than they are Fitzpatrick.
The spread is decent but I think they'll cover at home.
Titans -7
Sunday Second Wave
Packers @ Chicago +3
The Packers really need to declare Rodgers' status sooner as it's been screwing my predictions for too long long. That said, I fully expect him to play now - either side will win the division with a victory here and unless there are serious complications in the healing process there's not reason he wouldn't play through a bit of pain.
UPDATE - A-rod set to play, the Pack have this.
I'll try and remember to update this, but if not give me the Packers to win with whatever the spread is.
Packers -3
Bills @ Patriots -8.5
Signature wins for both these two teams, and it's hard to say who's was the more impressive. The Bills are playing for pride here, but the Pats are fighting to win the #1 seed in the AFC. I don't expect Buffalo to match last week's performance away from home, but nor do I think NE will maintain their level of play from last week either. I'm expecting a Patriots win, but not by anything too gaudy.
Large spread which I think the Bills will just sneak.
Bills +8.5 (Patriots to win)
Buccaneers @ Saints -13
The Saints must be kicking themselves for not closing out the game last week, and now have a fight on their hands to still make the playoffs. Luckily they hold the tie-breaker over Arizona, so just need to win here to lock up their wild card spot. Shouldn't even be in question, right?
They have been on fire at home, but 13 is huge.
Buccaneers +13 (Saints to win)
49ers @ Cardinals -1
SF avoided an awkward loss to Atlanta thanks to an incredible play from Bowman, and now have the pressure off them coming into this very tough game. As it is, with a win here and a Seahawks loss and they would still win the division, so they won't be resting on their laurels. As for 'Zona, they need to rely on the Buccs as well as a win here in order to trump the Saints and sneak in. Whilst the former looks unlikely, I can definitely see them winning here against a 49ers side that despite the result did not play well last week.
The spread is negligible.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Raiders +13
Denver need to win here to avoid losing the top seed to NE, so they shouldn't be resting anyone unless they rack up a big lead (which is far from out of the question). They bounced back and then some from their loss to SD with a big, record setting, win over the Titans, the Raiders struggled in a ugly, flag strewn, loss to the Chargers. This is only going one way.
The spread is large, and due to the fact Denver could pull Manning, giving me some insurance if it starts getting out of hand, I think Oakland could cover.
Raiders +13 (Broncos to win)
Rams @ Seahawks -10.5
Arizona did the seemingly impossible and handed Wilson his first ever loss at home, despite Palmer handing the home side plenty of chances to take the game. Whilst the loss was bound to happen eventually, the struggles on the interior of Seattle's offensive line can not be glossed over. I still expect the 'Hawks to win here and carve a path deep into the playoffs, but fans will be very wary of a performance like that when it can really hurt them. The Rams are more than capable of giving their hosts problems with one of the best pass rushes in the league, so this could be another close one.
The spread is large enough for me to side with St. Louis.
Rams +10.5 (Seahawks to win)
Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5
The last crucial AFC game to be played. The Chargers will know prior to kick off whether the Jets and Bengals have given them a chance to make the playoffs, and with the Chiefs likely resting starters this should be a game they win, even if it is futile endeavour due to the earlier results.
Big spread, and whoever is playing for KC will be eager to crush the Chargers' hopes should they get the results they need, or take advantage of lacklustre morale if there turns out to be nothing to play for.
Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)
Sunday Night
Eagles @ Cowboys +6.5
The game that will decide the East, loser goes home. It's a real shame for the league that Romo got hurt last week, as this would have been a great game with him under centre. As it is, this should turn out to be fairly one-sided. The Eagles score at will and the Cowboys' defence is going to have a long day unless they can score early and often themselves.
Even with the spread, Kyle Orton is not going to be up to keeping pace.
Eagles -6.5 SFBOTW
Here we go, week 17 of the regular season, and the last time we'll see most of these teams in real action until September... Truly there will be some post-Christmas blues for a lot of fans after survival Sunday, and I'm holding out hope I won't be one of them.
Week 16:
Outright = 10-6
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 152-89
Spread = 125-112-4
SFBOTW = 9-7
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 318-180
Spread = 265-226-7
SFBOTW = 17-15-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Sunday First Wave
Panthers @ Falcons -6
An impressive clutch performance from Cam Newton sends the Panthers to the playoffs, but they won't want to let up now against a Falcons team that despite being down and out so very nearly spoiled the 49ers' perfect Candlestick send off. Clearly unless they rest players they aren't in much danger of losing this game.
The spread is large but seeing as Carolina are playing to improve their seeding, I doubt they'll let up.
Panthers -6
Ravens @ Bengals -6
Big game in the AFC, and undoubtedly bigger for Baltimore who could easily make the playoffs with a win here. It gets a little complicated, as they have tie breakers over both SD and Miami individually, but not if both those teams win (then Miami would go through). Needless to say, winning here will be their only focus, but against a Bengals team that still has a (albeit slim) hope of improving their seeding, it won't be an easy game. To make matters worse, Flacco injured his knee in their big loss to NE, and whilst he'll be fine to start it could limit him somewhat. I'm expecting a close game which Cincy squeeze.
The spread is large enough for me to flip this.
Ravens +6 (Bengals to win)
Jaguars @ Colts -11.5
The only thing on the line here is the Colts' seeding, so whilst it is a meaningless game in most regards they'll still be eager to avoid slipping up against their divisional foes. Despite the Jaguars' continued improvement, I'm not expecting any shocks here.
The spread is a biggie, so I'll turn this over.
Jaguars +11.5 (Colts to win)
Jets @ Dolphins -6
Another crucial game in the AFC wildcard hunt, as mentioned above the Dolphins need a win here and some here to make the post-season, but they have likely the easiest shot out of the four contenders which a relatively soft match-up and more importantly a tie-breaker over San Diego. Having said that, the Jets are not going to be a walkover - what with Tannehill also going down in the Bills game (in which they played very poorly regardless) and Rex Ryan effectively coaching for his job. Tannehill should still play, but like Flacco he could be hobbled, so I'm still expecting a Dolphins win and January football for Miami.
The spread is big enough that I think the Jets could close it, and to be honest I'm rooting hard that they manage to pull this off.
Jets +6 (Dolphins win)
Lions @ Vikings -3
Oh dear Detroit, losing like that to the Giants was poor, and Jim Swartz looks like he'll (finally) to looking for a new job. Whoever takes over the Lions will be in a great position to win with a roster loaded with talent. The play of Stafford is a concern, and I could easily see them coming in with battered morale and losing to a Vikings side that has beaten the likes of Philly at home in recent weeks. In a game with nothing to play for, Minnesota have more pride right now.
The spread is only 3 points but as I'm expecting a close run thing I'll hedge my bets.
Lions +3 (Vikings to win)
Redskins @ Giants -3.5
A meaningless game in terms of the playoffs, but I'm sure the Skins and Giants won't see it that way. Last year's game was a cracking match up with an electric finish, but both these outfits have fallen a long way since then. I'm expecting both offences to find the endzone fairly often, and this could go either way. I'll take the Redskins to clinch it, as going against the Giants has worked so often for me this year.
The spread definitely cements my opinion.
Redskins +3.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Steelers -7
The Steelers CAN still make the playoffs, somehow, but they'll need a win here plus losses from Miami, SD and Balimore. Stranger things have happened, and I can definitely see them taking care of their own business here. Cleveland are more than capable of making things interesting, but Pittsburgh shouldn't really be losing this at home.
The spread is hefty enough to swing me.
Browns +7 (Steelers win)
Texans @ Titans -7
A thoroughly pointless game which will only decide draft order, and I don't expect a solid Titans side to lose here with the Texans already more focused on scouting Bridgewater than they are Fitzpatrick.
The spread is decent but I think they'll cover at home.
Titans -7
Sunday Second Wave
Packers @ Chicago +3
The Packers really need to declare Rodgers' status sooner as it's been screwing my predictions for too long long. That said, I fully expect him to play now - either side will win the division with a victory here and unless there are serious complications in the healing process there's not reason he wouldn't play through a bit of pain.
UPDATE - A-rod set to play, the Pack have this.
I'll try and remember to update this, but if not give me the Packers to win with whatever the spread is.
Packers -3
Bills @ Patriots -8.5
Signature wins for both these two teams, and it's hard to say who's was the more impressive. The Bills are playing for pride here, but the Pats are fighting to win the #1 seed in the AFC. I don't expect Buffalo to match last week's performance away from home, but nor do I think NE will maintain their level of play from last week either. I'm expecting a Patriots win, but not by anything too gaudy.
Large spread which I think the Bills will just sneak.
Bills +8.5 (Patriots to win)
Buccaneers @ Saints -13
The Saints must be kicking themselves for not closing out the game last week, and now have a fight on their hands to still make the playoffs. Luckily they hold the tie-breaker over Arizona, so just need to win here to lock up their wild card spot. Shouldn't even be in question, right?
They have been on fire at home, but 13 is huge.
Buccaneers +13 (Saints to win)
49ers @ Cardinals -1
SF avoided an awkward loss to Atlanta thanks to an incredible play from Bowman, and now have the pressure off them coming into this very tough game. As it is, with a win here and a Seahawks loss and they would still win the division, so they won't be resting on their laurels. As for 'Zona, they need to rely on the Buccs as well as a win here in order to trump the Saints and sneak in. Whilst the former looks unlikely, I can definitely see them winning here against a 49ers side that despite the result did not play well last week.
The spread is negligible.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Raiders +13
Denver need to win here to avoid losing the top seed to NE, so they shouldn't be resting anyone unless they rack up a big lead (which is far from out of the question). They bounced back and then some from their loss to SD with a big, record setting, win over the Titans, the Raiders struggled in a ugly, flag strewn, loss to the Chargers. This is only going one way.
The spread is large, and due to the fact Denver could pull Manning, giving me some insurance if it starts getting out of hand, I think Oakland could cover.
Raiders +13 (Broncos to win)
Rams @ Seahawks -10.5
Arizona did the seemingly impossible and handed Wilson his first ever loss at home, despite Palmer handing the home side plenty of chances to take the game. Whilst the loss was bound to happen eventually, the struggles on the interior of Seattle's offensive line can not be glossed over. I still expect the 'Hawks to win here and carve a path deep into the playoffs, but fans will be very wary of a performance like that when it can really hurt them. The Rams are more than capable of giving their hosts problems with one of the best pass rushes in the league, so this could be another close one.
The spread is large enough for me to side with St. Louis.
Rams +10.5 (Seahawks to win)
Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5
The last crucial AFC game to be played. The Chargers will know prior to kick off whether the Jets and Bengals have given them a chance to make the playoffs, and with the Chiefs likely resting starters this should be a game they win, even if it is futile endeavour due to the earlier results.
Big spread, and whoever is playing for KC will be eager to crush the Chargers' hopes should they get the results they need, or take advantage of lacklustre morale if there turns out to be nothing to play for.
Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)
Sunday Night
Eagles @ Cowboys +6.5
The game that will decide the East, loser goes home. It's a real shame for the league that Romo got hurt last week, as this would have been a great game with him under centre. As it is, this should turn out to be fairly one-sided. The Eagles score at will and the Cowboys' defence is going to have a long day unless they can score early and often themselves.
Even with the spread, Kyle Orton is not going to be up to keeping pace.
Eagles -6.5 SFBOTW
Wednesday, 18 December 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 16
Week 15 was a strange one, on the one hand I was 8-8 in outrights, and there weren't THAT many huge upsets, on the other I tied my best ever spread rate with 11-5, and nailed my SFBOTW thanks to the Chiefs riding roughshod over Oakland.
Week 16 looks like a tough one, but we need to make the most of it... football season is almost over *sad face*
Week 15:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 11-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 142-83
Spread = 115-106-4
SFBOTW = 9-6
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 308-174
Spread = 255-220-7
SFBOTW = 17-14-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Saints +3 (and to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Cardinals +10.5 (Seahawks win)
Eagles -3
Week 16 looks like a tough one, but we need to make the most of it... football season is almost over *sad face*
Week 15:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 11-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 142-83
Spread = 115-106-4
SFBOTW = 9-6
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 308-174
Spread = 255-220-7
SFBOTW = 17-14-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
No Thursday Night football this season, more's the pity. I know most players hate it, but it sure is a nice little midweek treat.
Sunday First Wave
Dolphins @ Bills +2.5
The obvious choice here is Miami. Their win at the weekend over NE puts them in a great position to make the post-season with a much easier schedule than Baltimore. They should handle the Bills here to bolster their wildcard bid, but I wouldn't be shocked if Buffalo sprung an upset coming off a road win.
The spread is small enough for me to stick with the 'Phins, but I have my doubts.
Dolphins -2.5
Saints @ Panthers -3
Very interesting to the see the Panthers the favourites in this one after the way their last encounter played out. Whilst I'm expecting a much more back and forth game in this one, I still think New Orleans will take it.
The spread sweetens the deal.
Saints +3 (and to win)
Vikings @ Bengals -7.5
The Vikings impressed in their victory over Philly, whereas the Bengals lost out to a much more physical performance from Pittsburgh (I'm not just talking about that punt). I like the Bengals to grab this one, but it should be a close affair.
The spread makes this a fairly easy decision.
Vikings +7.5 (Bengals to win) SFBOTW, I guess...
Broncos @ Texans +10.5
This should be an open and shut case, all things considered. Despite their slip up to SD, Denver are still one of the very best teams in the football. Houston are not.
Ooh. Big spread but I'm expecting a Broncos team eager to wash the bad taste out of their mouth.
Broncos -10.5
Titans @ Jaguars +5.5
Divisional clash that will be a lot tighter than it would have been near the beginning of the season. Jacksonville are definitely on the right track even given their narrow loss to the Bills, whereas the Titans despite a close game lost out at home to 'Zona. I like Tennessee to win, but it is anyone's game.
The spread makes me favour the Jags here.
Jaguars +5.5 (Titans win)
Colts @ Chiefs -7
Kansas City just torched the Raiders thanks to a career day from Jamaal Charles. Now, I'm not expecting another performance like that from the stud RB (sorry fantasy owners), but he, and the Chiefs, should still put on a decent show versus a very hit and miss Colts outfit.
The spread is very attainable for the Colts, who just kerb stomped the Texans.
Colts +7 (Chiefs to win)
Browns @ Jets -2.5
Eww. This is not a fun game to call, not even a little bit. Both of these teams just lost in fairly close games to better teams, but really we're scraping the NFL's barrel here. I guess I'll side with home side, all other things being basically equal. The Jets' big boys up front should force the Browns to throw, which is always entertaining (not that NY are much better in that department).
The spread is so small I'll stick with the Jets.
Jets -2.5
Buccaneers @ Rams -5.5
Interesting one, as the Rams shocked the Saints last week. I like the home side to continue their high level of play and hand Tampa another loss here, but I wouldn't be shocked if this went the other way.
The spread is moderate, but I'll stick with St. Louis.
Rams -5.5
Cowboys @ Redskins +2.5
The Cowboys at 7-7 still have a very good shot at winning their division with Philly's loss last week, even despite their own derptastic handing of the game to GB. Likely (and hopefully for those who are fans of watching Romo do Romo things) it will come down to their week 17 grudge match with the Eagles to decide the winner, but they'll need to win here first. Cousins looked pretty impressive against Atlanta, and shouldn't have a hard time in getting points versus a pathetic Cowboys' defence. Unfotunately the Skins aren't playing much better and are facing a dangerous offence. This will probably come down to who screws up the least, and Romo will save it all for when the world is watching next weekend.
The spread is, again, small enough to not have an impact for me.
Cowboys -2.5
Sunday Second Wave
Giants @ Lions -8.5
The Ravens really TUCKed (sorry) into the Lions' playoff hopes in a crushing loss on Monday, but luckily for them they're facing maybe the worst team in football right now. The Giants are just plain bad, with Eli frantically chasing the single season interception record. I actually fear for his life facing the Lions d-line behind some of the worst pass protection in football.
The spread is big, but NY are this bad.
Lions -8.5
Cardinals @ Seahawks -10.5
Divisional game which the Cards could really do with a win from to stay in the wildcard hunt (right now sitting just behind SF and Carolina). Despite their obvious quality they are playing in the one place you do not want to. Seattle haven't lost at home yet under Wilson, and they likely won't start now.
Big spread which swings me over.
Cardinals +10.5 (Seahawks win)
Steelers @ Packers NO SPREAD
Tough one to predict in advance with Rodgers questionable. I'll tentatively say he suits up this week, and the Packers win. Even with Flynn they have a good chance at home, the Steelers are getting back to their old selves but aren't as good as a sloppy Bengals' performance last week made them appear.No spread whilst we are on A-Rod watch, I'll update this later on, but give me the Packers whatever the spread is in case I forget.
Patriots @ Ravens -2.5
Big loss for the Patriots and they'll be keen to get back on track, but it won't be an easy game against a Ravens' squad just heating up at the right time (sounds familiar). They'll need to actually score some touchdowns to beat the Pats though, and I think NE will scrape this one and make life difficult for Baltimore in terms of the post-season.
The spread is an added incentive.
Patriots +2.5 (and to win)
Raiders @ Chargers -10
This game earlier in the season was the Chargers worst performance in a season of brutally narrow losses. They're basically out of the playoff hunt now as even with a 9-7 finish they are behind on tie-breakers to Miami and Baltimore. Coming off their massive and unexpected win @ Denver, they should handle a battered Raiders' squad comfortably.
The spread is big, and initially I was very tempted to take the Raiders, but I think the Chargers have improved massively since the last time they played.
Chargers -10
Sunday Night
Bears @ Eagles -3
The Eagles will be desperate to win this and put themselves out in front in the East following their slip up @ Minnesota, and even with Cutler back I think they have a very good chance at home. This should be a close one but one they are more than capable of putting away.
The spread doesn't swing me.
Eagles -3
Monday Night
Falcons @ 49ers -13
The Niners aren't home and dry yet, and need to win here to better secure their wildcard spot. Fortunately they're hosting Atlanta, so this shouldn't even be in question.
Spread is large so I'll flip this.
Falcons +13 (49ers win)
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