A very solid week at 10-6 on both the spread and the outright, and that's with a fair few upsets from the likes of Buffalo over Miami. The only blemish was my (less than) SFBOTW, which got blown out of the water by about 30 minutes into the first wave.
Here we go, week 17 of the regular season, and the last time we'll see most of these teams in real action until September... Truly there will be some post-Christmas blues for a lot of fans after survival Sunday, and I'm holding out hope I won't be one of them.
Week 16:
Outright = 10-6
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 152-89
Spread = 125-112-4
SFBOTW = 9-7
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 318-180
Spread = 265-226-7
SFBOTW = 17-15-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Sunday First Wave
Panthers @ Falcons -6
An impressive clutch performance from Cam Newton sends the Panthers to the playoffs, but they won't want to let up now against a Falcons team that despite being down and out so very nearly spoiled the 49ers' perfect Candlestick send off. Clearly unless they rest players they aren't in much danger of losing this game.
The spread is large but seeing as Carolina are playing to improve their seeding, I doubt they'll let up.
Panthers -6
Ravens @ Bengals -6
Big game in the AFC, and undoubtedly bigger for Baltimore who could easily make the playoffs with a win here. It gets a little complicated, as they have tie breakers over both SD and Miami individually, but not if both those teams win (then Miami would go through). Needless to say, winning here will be their only focus, but against a Bengals team that still has a (albeit slim) hope of improving their seeding, it won't be an easy game. To make matters worse, Flacco injured his knee in their big loss to NE, and whilst he'll be fine to start it could limit him somewhat. I'm expecting a close game which Cincy squeeze.
The spread is large enough for me to flip this.
Ravens +6 (Bengals to win)
Jaguars @ Colts -11.5
The only thing on the line here is the Colts' seeding, so whilst it is a meaningless game in most regards they'll still be eager to avoid slipping up against their divisional foes. Despite the Jaguars' continued improvement, I'm not expecting any shocks here.
The spread is a biggie, so I'll turn this over.
Jaguars +11.5 (Colts to win)
Jets @ Dolphins -6
Another crucial game in the AFC wildcard hunt, as mentioned above the Dolphins need a win here and some here to make the post-season, but they have likely the easiest shot out of the four contenders which a relatively soft match-up and more importantly a tie-breaker over San Diego. Having said that, the Jets are not going to be a walkover - what with Tannehill also going down in the Bills game (in which they played very poorly regardless) and Rex Ryan effectively coaching for his job. Tannehill should still play, but like Flacco he could be hobbled, so I'm still expecting a Dolphins win and January football for Miami.
The spread is big enough that I think the Jets could close it, and to be honest I'm rooting hard that they manage to pull this off.
Jets +6 (Dolphins win)
Lions @ Vikings -3
Oh dear Detroit, losing like that to the Giants was poor, and Jim Swartz looks like he'll (finally) to looking for a new job. Whoever takes over the Lions will be in a great position to win with a roster loaded with talent. The play of Stafford is a concern, and I could easily see them coming in with battered morale and losing to a Vikings side that has beaten the likes of Philly at home in recent weeks. In a game with nothing to play for, Minnesota have more pride right now.
The spread is only 3 points but as I'm expecting a close run thing I'll hedge my bets.
Lions +3 (Vikings to win)
Redskins @ Giants -3.5
A meaningless game in terms of the playoffs, but I'm sure the Skins and Giants won't see it that way. Last year's game was a cracking match up with an electric finish, but both these outfits have fallen a long way since then. I'm expecting both offences to find the endzone fairly often, and this could go either way. I'll take the Redskins to clinch it, as going against the Giants has worked so often for me this year.
The spread definitely cements my opinion.
Redskins +3.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Steelers -7
The Steelers CAN still make the playoffs, somehow, but they'll need a win here plus losses from Miami, SD and Balimore. Stranger things have happened, and I can definitely see them taking care of their own business here. Cleveland are more than capable of making things interesting, but Pittsburgh shouldn't really be losing this at home.
The spread is hefty enough to swing me.
Browns +7 (Steelers win)
Texans @ Titans -7
A thoroughly pointless game which will only decide draft order, and I don't expect a solid Titans side to lose here with the Texans already more focused on scouting Bridgewater than they are Fitzpatrick.
The spread is decent but I think they'll cover at home.
Titans -7
Sunday Second Wave
Packers @ Chicago +3
The Packers really need to declare Rodgers' status sooner as it's been screwing my predictions for too long long. That said, I fully expect him to play now - either side will win the division with a victory here and unless there are serious complications in the healing process there's not reason he wouldn't play through a bit of pain.
UPDATE - A-rod set to play, the Pack have this.
I'll try and remember to update this, but if not give me the Packers to win with whatever the spread is.
Packers -3
Bills @ Patriots -8.5
Signature wins for both these two teams, and it's hard to say who's was the more impressive. The Bills are playing for pride here, but the Pats are fighting to win the #1 seed in the AFC. I don't expect Buffalo to match last week's performance away from home, but nor do I think NE will maintain their level of play from last week either. I'm expecting a Patriots win, but not by anything too gaudy.
Large spread which I think the Bills will just sneak.
Bills +8.5 (Patriots to win)
Buccaneers @ Saints -13
The Saints must be kicking themselves for not closing out the game last week, and now have a fight on their hands to still make the playoffs. Luckily they hold the tie-breaker over Arizona, so just need to win here to lock up their wild card spot. Shouldn't even be in question, right?
They have been on fire at home, but 13 is huge.
Buccaneers +13 (Saints to win)
49ers @ Cardinals -1
SF avoided an awkward loss to Atlanta thanks to an incredible play from Bowman, and now have the pressure off them coming into this very tough game. As it is, with a win here and a Seahawks loss and they would still win the division, so they won't be resting on their laurels. As for 'Zona, they need to rely on the Buccs as well as a win here in order to trump the Saints and sneak in. Whilst the former looks unlikely, I can definitely see them winning here against a 49ers side that despite the result did not play well last week.
The spread is negligible.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Raiders +13
Denver need to win here to avoid losing the top seed to NE, so they shouldn't be resting anyone unless they rack up a big lead (which is far from out of the question). They bounced back and then some from their loss to SD with a big, record setting, win over the Titans, the Raiders struggled in a ugly, flag strewn, loss to the Chargers. This is only going one way.
The spread is large, and due to the fact Denver could pull Manning, giving me some insurance if it starts getting out of hand, I think Oakland could cover.
Raiders +13 (Broncos to win)
Rams @ Seahawks -10.5
Arizona did the seemingly impossible and handed Wilson his first ever loss at home, despite Palmer handing the home side plenty of chances to take the game. Whilst the loss was bound to happen eventually, the struggles on the interior of Seattle's offensive line can not be glossed over. I still expect the 'Hawks to win here and carve a path deep into the playoffs, but fans will be very wary of a performance like that when it can really hurt them. The Rams are more than capable of giving their hosts problems with one of the best pass rushes in the league, so this could be another close one.
The spread is large enough for me to side with St. Louis.
Rams +10.5 (Seahawks to win)
Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5
The last crucial AFC game to be played. The Chargers will know prior to kick off whether the Jets and Bengals have given them a chance to make the playoffs, and with the Chiefs likely resting starters this should be a game they win, even if it is futile endeavour due to the earlier results.
Big spread, and whoever is playing for KC will be eager to crush the Chargers' hopes should they get the results they need, or take advantage of lacklustre morale if there turns out to be nothing to play for.
Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)
Sunday Night
Eagles @ Cowboys +6.5
The game that will decide the East, loser goes home. It's a real shame for the league that Romo got hurt last week, as this would have been a great game with him under centre. As it is, this should turn out to be fairly one-sided. The Eagles score at will and the Cowboys' defence is going to have a long day unless they can score early and often themselves.
Even with the spread, Kyle Orton is not going to be up to keeping pace.
Eagles -6.5 SFBOTW
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