Week 13 was a very respectable one, with 12-4 outright and 9-7 on the spread (putting me back into positive on the season). Unfortunately the Chargers (and my SFBTOW) lost, so it was personally one of my least profitable weeks.
Week 14 is when the playoff action really starts heating up, and with a number of divisions and wildcards still undecided I'll be taking a closer look at what a W/L will mean for each team.
Week 13:
Outright = 12-4
Spread = 9-7
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 123-70
Spread = 95-94-4
SFBOTW = 8-5
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 289-161
Spread = 235-208
SFBOTW = 16-13-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Texans @ Jaguars +3 Sky Sports 1
Who would have said the Texans (2-10) would have a worse record than the Jaguars (3-9) at this point in the season? Needless to say neither of these teams are making the post-season, and at this point whoever loses has a great shot at the #1 overall pick in April. That said it's still a divisional game, and both team's QBs are fighting for roster spots at this point. I like the Texans to squeeze it, but it could go either way.
The spread is narrow so I'll stick with them.
Houston -3
Sunday First Wave
Vikings @ Ravens -7
Minnesota (3-8-1) are well out of contention, but the Ravens (6-6) are fighting to hold onto the AFC's second wildcard spot. A loss here would put them back into the pack, so I think they win back to back games at home and improve their chances of making the playoffs.
7 points is a large spread for a Vikings squad that hasn't lost in 2 weeks. I like them to cover.
Vikings +7 (Ravens to win)
Colts @ Bengals -6
Both these teams sit atop their divisions, but the Bengals' (8-4) position is the more precarious. This should be a tight encounter that I'm loath to call, as even if Indy have been a little off form of late, they are still one of the more dangerous offences in the league. The Bengals looked good in their win @ San Diego last week, so I like them to top it with another here and move out in control of the AFC North.
6 is too much for me to feel comfortable with.
Colts +6 (Bengals to win) SFBOTW
Browns @ Patriots -12
The Browns (4-8) are essentially done, but it isn't as bad as it usually is at this point for the them, unfortunately they are travelling to the Patriots (9-3) who are on a bit of a roll with back to back wins. This should be more of the same, and whilst NE have the division locked up at this point they won't take their foot off the gas.
12 points is a huge spread, but I'm still not sure Cleveland will cover.
Patriots -12
Raiders @ Jets -2.5
Oakland (4-8) may have a worse record than NY (5-7), but they are definitely moving in the right direction, whereas the Jets are, well, not, despite mathematically being within reach of a WC spot. There was a fun factoid floating around that if Nick Foles threw a pick on each of his next 50 passes he would still have a higher QBR this season than Geno Smith, which doesn't exactly bode well for the future for the struggling franchise. I like the Raiders to pile on the misery here, as with each passing week they recover more and more key players from injury, but the Jets' top run defence will force McGloin to prove he is worthy of sticking with into next season.
2.5 just makes this more attractive, this is SFBOTW worthy...
Raiders +2.5 (and to win)
Lions @ Eagles -2.5 Sky Sports 3
As mentioned above, Foles is legit, so I like the Eagles (7-5) chances to beat the Lions (7-5) here, even if the visitors are in great form themselves. This should be a true shoot out, and both QBs could well put up huge numbers. The key will be whether Philly can avoid a dominant Lions defensive line munching their QB enough to let him play to his best. Both these teams are locked in tight battles for their respective divisional titles, so the game couldn't be much more crucial.
It's a relatively small spread so I'll take the Eagles again. Not feeling super confident on this though as the match up isn't great.
Eagles -2.5
Chiefs @ Redskins +3
KC (9-3) haven't lost the division yet, but they'll probably have to content themselves with 2nd place and a strong WC after getting swept by Denver. This should be a much easier test though with the Redskins (3-9) having nothing left to play for.
The spread is actually fairly attractive.
Chiefs -3
Miami @ Pittsburgh -3
Absolutely key AFC West match up here, with the Dolphins (6-6) and Steelers (5-7) both desperately needing a win to keep pace with Baltimore for the 2nd AFC wild card. Even though Miami have the better record, the home field advantage gives Pittsburgh the edge here, plus the knowledge that a loss means their season is well and truly over.
The spread is only 3 points but as I'm not sure I'll flip it.
Dolphins +3 (Steelers win)
Bills @ Buccaneers -2.5
This is a bit of a nothing game after the last two, with the Bills (4-8) and Buccs (3-9) both ruled out of playoff contention. I guess I like the Buccs to win at home, but I'm struggling the find the enthusiasm to even decide why. Personally I hope they lose to Schiano isn't in danger of keeping his job.
The spread is marginal.
Buccs -2.5
Falcons @ Packers NO SPREAD
With A-Rod questionable to play this week this is still up in the air, that said with or without him I still like the Packers (5-6-1) to beat a struggling Falcons (3-9) at home. If they have him I think it will be dominant, but without a much more nervous affair. The fact is GB need a win here if they want to make the playoffs, and the Lions aren't too far in front that if they do and get Rodgers back they can still take the division. Game on.
NO SPREAD yet due to the injury questions, I'll update this Saturday when we know. Provisionally I'd expect Packers -7 with him and a push without, I'd take them in both scenarios.
Sunday Second Wave
Titans @ Broncos -12
This game absolutely means more to Tennessee (5-7) than it does to Denver (10-2), as if they lose this they can kiss their play off hopes good bye. However, with the Broncos still playing for the divisional title and the #1 seed this is hardly a game they'll roll over in. I'm still expecting a typical dominant Denver performance the likes of which we've become accustomed to.
This spread is massive, but at home I'm thinking Denver cover.
Broncos -12
Giants @ Chargers -3
Another big game as both these (5-7 a piece) are in with an unlikely shot of the playoffs. The Chargers have the easier road in the AFC, but will likely need to win out to secure that second WC spot, whereas the Giants will need to do that and have the Cowboys and Eagles the opposite to have a chance. I like the Chargers to wash last week's bad taste out of their mouths with a win here.
3 points doesn't scare me off.
Chargers -3
Rams @ Cardinals -6
The Rams (5-7) may be out of contention, but Arizona (7-5) are still well in it, especially with a win here and a Niners loss. They'll be well aware of the situation, and eager not to slip up at home to a divisional foe. I think they'll win (largely thanks to their D), but it will be an edgy affair throughout.
The spread is too much for me.
Rams +6 (Cardinals win)
Seahawks @ 49ers -2.5 Sky Sports 3
Game of the week and a HUGE match up in the upper echelons of the NFC. A win here for Seattle (11-1) would see them lock up the division, whereas a win for SF (8-4) will put the pressure on their opposition going into the final weeks as well as giving them breathing room from 'Zona. That said, I think the 'Hawks have this, even away from their dominant home field advantage. They have been white hot all year, even missing key personnel on the o-line, but with those injuries back and Harvin getting more involved they have too much quality if they play to their potential. I'm not expecting a double digit margin, but I do think they'll squeeze a tight defensive battle.
The spread is just an added incentive.
Seahawks +2.5 (and to win)
Sunday Night
Panthers @ Saints -3
A potentially even bigger game than the previous one in terms of divisional importance, even if it won't get quite as much media hype (and likely even the loser will still grab a wild card spot). With both teams 9-3 this will likely decide the division, and with the Panthers on a staggering 8 game winning streak it is hard to look past them, even if NO have the home field. I like the Panthers to grab this one in an explosive but tight game.
Again, the spread just makes this all the sweeter.
Panthers +3 (and to win)
Monday Night
Cowboys @ Bears -1
The Cowboys (7-5) need a win here to retain their lead on the division, but the Bears (6-6) know that they are only a game behind Detroit to take theirs. With the wild cards likely going to the West and South in the NFC it is all or nothing here, and I like Romo to prove his doubters wrong and put in a clutch performance to give the 'Boys a great launching pad into the final 3 weeks, especially with Cutler still questionable to play.
The spread doesn't affect matters.
Cowboys +1 (and to win)
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