Week 12 was a week to get back to form, with 8-6 on the outrights (draws count as losses), 10-4 on the spreads and my SFBOTW hitting comfortably again. Let's hope I can continue this into the tail end of the season and finish respectably.
Week 13 is turkey week, so there's a whole host of NFL action to get our teeth into early on.
Week 12:
Outright = 8-6
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 111-66
Spread = 86-87-4
SFBOTW = 8-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 277-157
Spread = 226-201-7
SFBOTW = 16-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Packers @ Lions -6 Sky Sports 1
Our first Thanksgiving game is a familiar NFC North grudge match between Green Bay and Detroit. With A-Rod unlikely to play the favour has to be with the Lions, even if they are coming off a tough loss to the Buccs.
The spread is large, but I still think they will cover.
Lions -6
Raiders @ Cowboys -10 Sky Sports 1
On the face of it this match-up is pretty one sided, but the Raiders have the benefit of several key players returning from injury and potentially playing this Sunday, including McFadden, Veldheer and Branch. Even with these additions I don't think they have the quality to beat the Cowboys @ Dallas, but they could run them close.
The spread is large enough to make me think Oakland can cover, remember this is the same team that almost upset the likes of Indy at home earlier in the season.
Raiders +10 (Cowboys win)
Steelers @ Ravens -2.5 Sky Sports 1
We round off the holiday's football fest with another divisional show down between the Steelers and Ravens. Both are playing solid football right now, with Pittsburgh seeing off Cleveland and Baltimore the Jets in the week just gone. This should be a typically tight, physical encounter, but I'll have to side with the Ravens with the home field here.
The spread is enough for me to flip flop over to Pittsbugh. #hedgethatbadboy
Steelers +2.5 (Ravens to win)
Sunday First Wave
Buccaneers @ Panthers -8.5
Schiano's Buccs are finally getting themselves some wins, but the Panthers may be one of the hottest teams right now and find themselves on their own impressive win streak. They are absolutely my outside shot at finding themselves on a deep playoff run in a stacked NFL, but they'll need to win this kind of divisional battle to prove they have the toughness to be contenders. I think they have what it takes.
The spread puts me off, a lot. The Buccs have been decent of late and should keep this close enough.
Buccaneers +8.5 (Panthers win)
Jaguars @ Browns -7
Yawn. Even the Jaguars winning a game the week before doesn't inspire me for this one. I'm already bored of this game and I've only written two lines about it. Look for the Browns' D to keep Jax pretty much off the scoreboard.
The spread is large but they should cover.
Browns -7
Titans @ Colts -4
Crucial AFC South match up with the Colts looking to cement the divisional title and the Titans chasing that illusive second AFC wild card. Despite a poor performance last week I like the Colts to win at home versus Tennessee, who did well to beat Oakland but are not the same team with Fitzpatrick in place of Locker.
The spread isn't big enough to make me have second thoughts.
Colts -4
Dolphins @ Jets -1.5
An even more crucial AFC match up with both teams vying for that wild card spot. A loss here would be damning for either team. In soccer terms this is a 6 pointer, and the Jets have been truly woeful of late, with Geno sinking back to his worst the past couple of weeks. The Dolphins meanwhile did surprisingly well against SD and then the Panthers, so I think they have all the form going into this one. I like Miami to win the battle of the soap operas, but Smith could well spring back to form and make me look foolish.
The spread is negligible.
Dolphins +1.5 (and to win)
Cardinals @ Eagles -3.5 Sky Sports 2
Very difficult one to call, as both are playing at a decent level right now. The Cardinals are expanding on their pre-season hype by knocking off some good teams - most recently Indy. How they play on the road will dictate their success down the stretch though, and they'll need to pick up wins in games like this to be in with a chance of stealing SF's wild card spot. The Eagles meanwhile have been putting up NUMBERS with Foles under centre, but could struggle against a strong Cardinal's defence. I like the visitors to pull off an upset here.
A nice little spread is just an extra incentive.
Cardinals +3.5 (and to win)
Bears @ Vikings -1.5
The Bears got handled by the Rams, and with Cutler still out for this one I don't see things getting much better. Sure, Minnesota are hardly setting the world alight, but they damn nearly beat the Packers at Lambeau last week (who are similarly lacking a starting QB), so should have enough to win this one.
Again, a spread that doesn't do much to change my opinion.
Vikings -1.5
Patriots @ Texans +7.5
Brady did the impossible and recovered from a 24 point deficit to beat the Broncos in overtime. As irksome as that is to all non-Pats fans, hats off to him. I think they will make short work of a Texans side that seems to have rolled over, especially given last week's loss to Jax.
The Spread is fairly hefty but I think they should squeeze by it.
Patriots -7.5
Falcons @ Bills -3.5
Atlanta are bad, and their season is over, but they did run the Saints close last week. Whilst they may struggle more for motivation on a long away trip to Buffalo I like them to spring the upset and show the league they aren't completely done.
The spread just makes this sweeter.
Falcons +3.5 (and to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Bengals @ Chargers -1.5
SD didn't perform much better than they have done all year in their win over KC, the difference was they were the ones delivering the game winning drive in the dying seconds, as opposed to being on the receiving end of it. With much of the AFC wide open this is another game both sides will be eager to grab a W from, but at home I like the Chargers to send a message they are the favourites to make the playoffs.
The spread is small enough to make me feel pretty confident. I'm not as sold as I could be, but there really aren't any other games I'm crazy about this week either...
Chargers -1.5 SFBOTW
Rams @ 49ers -8.5
It may come as a shock to some that the 49ers post-season berth is far from guaranteed this year. This is one of 3 divisional games (v Seahawks and @ Cards) left on their schedule, and whilst probably the easiest of the three a loss here would see them in dire straits. That said, and despite some strong performances from St. Louis in recent weeks, I can't see them overcoming a dominant Niners' defence.
The spread is large enough that I can see the Rams covering.
Rams + 8.5 (49ers win)
Broncos @ Chiefs +4.5 Sky Sports 2
It may not seem that long ago that the Chiefs were @ Denver, and that's because it wasn't. After only a couple of weeks break the two strongest teams in the AFC face off again, this time at Arrowhead. With both coming off tough last minute losses this is a very interesting game, but the loss of both of KC's premier pass rushers (who at the very least will be limited in this game) could hurt them versus Peyton as much as it did versus Rivers.
Denver have more than enough to show up KC for a second time.
Broncos -4.5
Sunday Night
Giants @ Redskins +1
Another divisional dog fight in a week seemingly full of them. I'm really torn over this one, on the one hand the Giants (until last week) had been coming back to form, on the other the Skins despite a bad pass defence are not a terrible team. Both teams are suffering from a lot of unwanted media attention, the Giants following their players' guarantees of a win over Dallas, and RG3 over his attitude and response to losing. It would be shame to break the habit of a lifetime and pick the Giants here, so I'll stick with the Redskins to win a statement game and stop the rot.
The spread doesn't swing me either way, I'll be avoiding this one like the plague.
Redskins +1 (and to win)
Monday Night
Saints @ Seahawks -6
Marquee match up on MNF between the two best teams in the NFC, and a rematch of that fateful playoff game that sparked Lynch's famous beast mode run. This could well be the toughest home test yet (aside from that weird Tampa game) for a Seahawks side suffering at CB in the absence of Brandon Browner and nickleback Thurmond. They still have Sherman and Thomas of course, but Jimmy Graham and co. will cause them problems. I still think the 'Hawks win this game, but it could be a close run thing.
The spread definitely swings this in favour of NO, in my opinion.
Saints +6 (Seahawks win)
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