Another sub-par week of predictions with an average 9-6 outright marred by a woeful 5-10 on the spreads. If this keeps up I may be forced to throw in the predicting towel. The only thing keeping me going now is another SFBOTW hitting, meaning whilst I am less than perfect as a whole I am almost 2:1 on the games I feel most comfortable in. Now I just need to limit myself to betting on those...
Week 11:
Outright = 9-6
Spread = 5-10
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 103-60
Spread = 76-83-4
SFBOTW = 7-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 269-151
Spread = 216-197-7
SFBOTW = 15-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Saints @ Falcons +9.5 Sky Sports 1
What should have been a cracking Thursday night football encounter when penned in at the start of the season, now even the divisional factor can't rescue this from being a damp squib. The Falcons are vying with the Texans for the crown of biggest disappointments 2013, and a far cry for the undefeated team that lasted much of last season. Whatever the reasons for their fall from grace, the Saints will make short work of a team at rock bottom.
9.5 is a healthy margin, but one I think the Saints should cover.
Saints -9.5
Sunday First Wave
Jets @ Ravens -4 Sky Sports 3
A less than attractive game between two inconsistent performers, this is a tough one to call. I think the Ravens are in the better position to win this one, especially at home, as even despite last week's loss against Cutler-less Chicago, they face off against the turnover machine that was Geno Smith last week.
4 points is a decent spread, but again I think the Ravens could well win by a score or more here.
Ravens -4
Steelers @ Browns -1
This is a game which in which the Steelers inexplicably (to me at any rate) are under dogs. Yes they had a terrible start compared to the Browns' strong one, but looking at recent form tells us this shouldn't even be close. Pittsburgh have benefited from the resurgence of a run game with Bell in play, whereas Campbell has been as ineffective as we've come to expect from Browns' fill ins. Despite the homefield advantage for the Browns, this is Steelers all day.
The +1 point just makes this sweeter.
Steelers +1 (and to win) SFBOTW
Buccaneers @ Lions -9.5
Tampa's mini revival should come to a screeching halt here, facing off against a Detroit side that will be eager to get back on track following their loss to Pittsburgh last weekend. Look for the beastly Lions d-line to make life difficult for Glennon.
9.5 is a very large spread however, and the Buccs have weapons capable of staying competitive.
Buccs +9.5 (Lions win)
Vikings @ Packers -4.5
I'm definitely in two minds about this game. On the one hand, the Packers have the home field and are a better overall team. On the other, they are shadows of their former selves without Rodgers. We often place too much importance on QB play in all levels of football, Green Bay being without their lead man shows why sometimes we're right to do so. I fancy the Vikings (even with their marginally better passing options), to take advantage here and grab the win.
The spread just sweetens the pot.
Vikings +4.5 (and to win)
Jaguars @ Texans -10
The Texans lost out last week to the Raiders, and the shine seems to be wearing thin on Case Keenum already. It was definitely the wrong decision to pull him in favour of Schaub last week, no matter how inaccurate he was. At this point you are trying to evaluate whether the kid is worth sticking with or whether you have to go all out in the draft for a new QB. I like Case to find his rhythm once more against a struggling (but gradually improving) visiting Jax.
10 points is too much for me.
Jaguars +10 (Texans to win)
Panthers @ Dolphins +4.5
Despite the Dolphins' victory over San Diego I see Carolina as clear favourites here. Yes they got lucky on that final play versus the Pats, but they are still an extremely strong team. A dominant defensive front plus the particular skills of Cam make for a dangerous cocktail. I like them to take down the Phins comfortably.
4.5 isn't enough to sway me here.
Panthers -4.5
Bears @ Rams -1
With Jay Cutler out this becomes yet another back QB bowl. Then question becomes A. who has the better running game and B. who's defence is more likely to force an inexperienced passer into mistakes. I think the Rams edge this, especially in the latter category. I'm expecting a tight game but one I think St. Louis could nick at home.
The spread changes nothing.
Rams -1
Sunday Second Wave
Colts @ Cardinals -1
This should be an intriguing game, with the Colts travelling to Arizona. Make no mistake these are two good teams playing, and the Cardinals will make life very difficult for Luck and co. That said, it's hard to bet against Indy when they are some proficient at come from behind victories. Whilst the match up is not great I think they have enough quality to scrape one.
Colts +1 (and to win)
Titans @ Raiders -1
Interesting call here, as the Titans have struggled somewhat since Locker went out, but are still a strong team. The Raiders meanwhile impressed in their win over Houston, particularly Rashad Jennings' bruising running and the surprisingly effective Matt McGloin under centre. This really good go either way, but I'll err with who I think are the better team.
Titans +1 (and to win)
Cowboys @ Giants -1 Sky Sports 3
The Giants are back on track, but it's probably far too little too late even in the torrid NFC East. The Cowboys will look to bounce back following their bye week and preceeding beat down by NO, and what better way to do it than in what is always a heated divisional encounter. I like the 'Boys to win this one.
The extra point does little except tell me I'm in the slight minority.
Cowboys +1 (and to win)
Chargers @ Chiefs -5
Another heartbreakingly narrow loss for SD at the weekend (no team has lost more 1 score games this season), and things won't get any easier with a trip to rivals Kansas City in the pipe. The Chiefs showed their flaws in their game in Denver, namely an offence not up to matching scores with the most explosive in the league. Can Rivers and the Chargers put up enough points on a stingy Chiefs' defense to take this one? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.
The spread swings this for me, San Diego have been ultra competitive in all their losses, and there's no reason to think they'll throw this one away by a larger margin.
Chargers +5 (Chiefs to win)
Sunday Night
Broncos @ Patriots +1
Marquee match up and what should be another great one in the Brady/Manning rivalry. With the Broncos firing on all cylinders I think this is an easy call in terms of the result, even in Foxboro. Having said that, it is still anyone's game and you never count the Pats out.
Broncos -1
Monday Night
49ers @ Redskins +5
The Redskins' season is effectively over whereas the 49ers are fighting to keep hold of a wild card berth. With both teams underperforming I still like the Niners to grab this. Their defense should be an extra test for a still sub-par RG3 (compared to his standards last year) and the Skins soft underbelly that is their pass defense is exactly what Kaep needs to get back on track.
The spread is large enough to give me cause for concern, but I think the Niners should cover.
49ers -5
No comments:
Post a Comment