A truly terrible week of predictions at a shocking 7-7 outright (not exactly the calk walk I was expecting), and 6-8 on the spread. At least my SFBOTW (somehow) won, so I'm actually looking pretty respectable on those this year with a 2:1 ratio going into week 10.
I was feeling pretty good about last week, and it went terribly, so the fact I feel terrible about this week's spreads means I'm guaranteed a flawless week, right?
Week 9:
Outright = 7-7
Spread = 6-8
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 87-47
Spread = 60-57-3
SFBOTW = 6-3
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 253-138
Spread = 206-179-6
SFBOTW = 14-11-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Redskins @ Vikings +1
The Redskins won a roller coaster game in OT versus the Chargers, and will be hopeful it can spring the turnaround in their fortunes that they so desperately need. They can't ask for a much easier away trip than @ Minnesota, even despite the home side's close playing of Dallas in the game just gone.
At a negligible spread I'm all over the Skins here.
Redskins -1
Sunday First Wave
Seahawks @ Falcons +6 Sky Sports 3
So we all saw the Buccs running the Seahawks into a come from behind overtime victory, right?
That's what I thought... This Hawks team is still very talented, and everyone has off days, but the o-line cracks are definitely showing in an otherwise strong roster. The good news? Every passing week means a the likelihood of débuting star acquisition Percy Harvin increases, and also, more importantly, they get to play the Falcons. Is it really just (albeit it a lot of) injuries that have caused Atlanta to go from being a potential SB contender to whipping boys? Maybe, but it's rare to see teams collapse so much from a non-QB blow.
6 points is not a lot, but the Seahawks have been struggling to win games comfortably in recent weeks. Even so, and on the road, I like them to win by a score or more here.
Seahawks -6
Bengals @ Ravens +1
The Bengals lost to Miami, and said good bye to Geno Atkins' season in the process. Not a good day for them, but it wasn't much better for Baltimore who lost out in an ugly affair to their rival Browns. Truly the AFC North is a shadow of its former self right now. All complaining aside, this is actually a pretty evenly balanced game. The loss of Geno will hurt the Bengals up front, but I still think they have enough in the tank to squeeze out a tight win.
1 point is nada.
Bengals -1
Lions @ Bears +2 Sky Sports 2
The probable return of Jay Cutler makes this a tight game to call, as both teams have been fairly impressive, if a little inconsistent, this year. If he does play I like the Bears to win this one, but if not then Lions all day.
2 points isn't a lot, but it sweetens the pot in what should be a tight game.
Bears +2 (and to win)
Eagles @ Packers -1
From one NFC North QB returning from injury to the start of a lengthy absence for another. Aaron Rodgers should return fairly quickly from his broken collarbone (luckily not his throwing side), but he will be out for at least 4 weeks. The Packers will be hoping they can scrape through until then, but the visit of Philly will not be an easy game, what with Foles dropping bombs (7, count 'em) on Oakland last week.
Another tiny spread, I like the Eagles to win, although they are hardly the most consistent of performers.
Eagles +1 (and to win)
Rams @ Colts -9.5
St. Louis struggle on without Bradford, and despite their best efforts it is going to be a long season. Indy pulled off quite some comeback 3 scores down against Houston, and are in no danger of losing this one (although after Seattle/Tampa my belief in a sure thing has never been weaker).
9.5 is a large spread, I'm pretty on the fence about this. I think the Colts will just about cover though.
Colts -9.5
Raiders @ Giants -9.5
Pryor and D-mac both got hurt in the Raiders' big loss to Philly, but the good news is the former looks set to play against NY. If he does, it could be a very competitive game, as the Giants have hardly been setting the world alight this season. Despite that, I still like them to grab a close win at home.
9.5 seems an absurd margin to give a team as poor as the Giants, I love the Raiders with this spread if Pryor plays. If he doesn't, if gets a lot more dicey but I'll still take it.
Raiders +9.5 (Giants win)
Bills @ Steelers -3
CJ Spiller finally looks healthy again - not good news for a Pittsburgh side that has had a very lukewarm season. However, at home I like the Steelers to win a close fought game, taking advantage of the BIlls' inexperience at QB.
3 points is too much for me, I'll take them here when this is anyone's game.
Bills +3 (Steelers to win)
Jaguars @ Titans -10.5
Will the Jaguars have improved coming off their bye? Probably not, and @ Tennessee is one of the tougher prospects in the league right now. The Titans have been very solid this year, and should win convincingly, although whether they light up the scoreboard is to be seen.
10.5 is a lot but the Jags truly are terrible.
Titans -10.5
Sunday Second Wave
Panthers @ 49ers -6.5
Very interesting match up between two of the NFC's in-form teams. Fresh off their bye I like the 49ers to win here, but coming off a divisional beat down of the Falcons the Panthers are no pushovers. I'm expecting a lot of big plays from two of the leagues' most exciting QBs.
6.5 is too many points for me to feel comfortable with, especially with this being a game the Panthers could definitely steal.
Panthers +6.5 (49ers to win)
Texans @ Cardinals -1
Case Keenum is legit. He's like a less obnoxious version of Johnny Football. That said, his aggressive style of play is going to get him into trouble early against a better defence, which it just so happens the Cardinals possess. Look for a couple of picks from the young QB and a fairly safe Arizona win.
-1 is AGAIN a small spread, but one I like a fair bit.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Chargers +7 Sky Sports 2
I have haunting memories of this game from last season, with the Chargers blowing a 3 score lead to lose against Manning and Broncos. This year, Denver are even better, but SD have taken a huge leap in improving their play and shoring up/disguising their big weaknesses. Whilst only 4-4 they haven't lost a game by more than a score, and even though I still think Denver will win the game, this looks to be another high scoring nail biter, and a great game for the neutrals.
I like the spread here, but am not super confident on it. I do think it'll be a shoot-out though, and you should always take the points in a shoot-out.
Chargers +7 (Broncos to win)
Sunday Night
Cowboys @ Saints -7
Decent match up between a fairly dominant (until last week) Saints team and a Cowboys side that has been more hit than miss this year. I'm still not quite sure how NO lost to the Jets (that d-line is pretty beastly though), but I think they'll set the record straight here in a classic shoot out in the big easy.
7 points is too much for my likely. The Cowboys will run them close, and maybe even be leading before Romo does something Romo-ey.
Cowboys +7 (Saints to win)
Monday Night
Dolphins @ Buccaneers +1
Tampa massively over performed against Seattle - that result is not a true measure of where they are, something their 0-8 record does not belie. This will be a tough bounce back game for them, with a solid Miami team visiting who should (even in the wake of the racist Richie saga) control the game up front.
Not much of a spread, so I'm feeling very strongly that this won't be Tampa's first win.
Dolphins -1 SFBOTW
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