Beating the Bookies: Week 13

A very middling week in terms of accuracy made sweeter by some large personal profit. A couple of pushes that help nobody are a blemish, but still better than a loss. Waffle and Ralph continue their quest to perfection - only 4 more weeks to hold on!

My goal at this point is to get my SFBOTW in profit by week 17. 


Week 12:

Outright = 11-5
Spread = 8-6-2
SFBOTW = 0-0-1
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0

Overall*:

Outright = 113-64 (64%)
Spread = 98-77-2 (56%)
SFBOTW = 5-6-1
Waffle + Ralph = 2-0

*I recalculated my wins and losses to get the % and found some errors in my favour! 

Keerrrrr-splat!

Saints @ Falcons -3.5
Very tasty Thursday night NFC South match-up. The Saints just got beat by the 49ers whereas the Falcons just managed to squeeze by the Buccs. Given how close Atlanta's wins typically are I'll take the points, and fancy the Saints to spring the upset here as well.

Saints +3.5 (and to win) 

Jaguars @ Bills -5.5
The Henne-led Jags are a different beast than when Gabbert has the reigns, and with that in mind I'll happily take a modest 6 point cushion. I still expect the Bills to win, as despite a loss at fortress Indy they are still a threat to any team.

Jags +5.5 (Bills win)

The Hawks turn on the sprinklers in an effort to generate some kind of home-field atmosphere. 

Seahawks @ Bears -4
Not at all sure about this one, as the Hawks turn to jelly when forced to leave Washington St., but the Bears haven't exactly been setting the world alight either. Whilst I expect there to be ugly play all round, with Forte out and Seattle's pass rush turning Chicago's o-line inside out, ultimately I can't justify picking the visitors until they show they can get it done on the road.

Bears -4 

Colts @ Lions -4.5
Interesting one, as the Lions have narrowly lost their last 2 games at home to strong opponents, whereas the Colts typically struggle on the road this year. I'll take the home side, but have reservations as to whether they can cover 5 points.

Lions -4.5

Vikings @ Packers -9.5
Ouch. That's a hefty spread for a team coming off a big loss to the Giants. The Vikings meanwhile just got handed their own beat-down by the Bears, so I'll be staying well away from this one. If I have to pick a team I'll side with the Packers, but I'm not convinced they'll cover.

Packers -9.5

Panthers @ Chiefs +3
Not too difficult a choice for me here. Both teams are done for 2012, but the Panthers are showing a lot more promise coming off a decent win over Philly.

Panthers -3 

Patriots @ Dolphins +9
Tough one as 9 points is a large margin, especially for a divisional game on the road. Miami just narrowly beat Seattle, but given the Pats demolition of the Jets, and the fact the Dolphins main strength is their run D (something New England won't be too concerned about) I'll back the visitors to just cover.

Patriots -9

Like watching a beautiful car-crash

Cardinals @ Jets -4.5
I think this is an attractive bet on the face of things. Sure, Arizona just (badly) lost to St. Louis... but the Jets just got torn limb from limb at home, and hopefully after that performance Arizona realise Lindley is not the answer. Whoever they start at QB, the Jets don't have anyone much better. 

Cards +4.5 (and to win)

49ers @ Rams +7
The Rams put in a strong performance vs Arizona, but I can't see that continuing when the Niners come to town. Smith or Kaep, they should take care of business by at least a TD.

49ers -7

It's awkward when your backup QB is better than their starter

Texans @ Titans +5.5
I normally don't like picking the same team back to back for my SFBOTW, but when the odds are this good I can't say no. Tennessee just lost to the Jaguars... if they can handle the Texans coming off that then I'm calling BS. 

Texans -5.5 SFBOTW!

Buccaneers @ Broncos -8
Interesting one as despite the narrowest of losses to Atlanta the Buccs have looked very strong. Denver, meanwhile, just struggled more than anticipated in beating Kansas City. Despite this I'm going to back Manning to win by more than 8, especially at home.

Broncos -8

Bengals @ Chargers +1
Another tough one, as the Chargers lose a heart-breaker in OT to the Ravens, whereas the Bengals take down the flailing Raiders at home. This could be a key AFC wildcard decider for both sides, and with that in mind I'll leave it to our resident soothsayers:

Waffle again makes a decisive (if highly controversial) selection, proving he is equally happy to pick the away side. Ralph backs him up without hesitation, clearly ashamed of his attitude last week. 

Bengals -1

Steelers @ Ravens -8
Big Ben confirmed out as per expectations. 8 points is huge spread considering games between these two are usually slug-fests, but when you look at how poorly Pittsburgh played last week I really can't see any other than a Raven domination here. 

Ravens -8

Browns @ Raiders +1
Interesting match-up here between two of the perennial bottom-feeders. With the Browns undergoing something of a renaissance many will like them to pull off the away win here. Beating Charlie Batch is all well and good, but I see this as the sort of game either could grab. Despite that, 8 turnovers (!) and some hard running from T-Rich last week sees the Browns enter as clear favourites in this once.

Browns -1

Eagles @ Cowboys -9.5
9.5 is a huge spread for a divisional rivalry between two sides who at least talent wise are evenly matched. I expect the Cowboys the win, but not by that much even with the Eagles struggling mightily. 

Eagles +9.5 (Cowboys win)

Giants @ Redskins +2.5
Tough one to call as both played at a high level last week, and still everything at stake in the NFC East. I'll go with the Skins, as their earlier game at the Meadowlands could have gone either way, and I really really really don't want them to lose this one.

Redskins +2.5 (and to win)

As always, good luck winning large amounts of cash.

*All odds accurate as of 27/11/2012 via Yahoo's sportacular app*

Beating the Bookies: Week 12

An outstanding week outright and a solid one on the spread means my record continues to grow more and more respectable. Also a big shout out to the rabbits for nailing their first ever selection under the bright lights of Thursday night football. 

However, a lot of those games went way closer than I would have liked (I'm looking at you, Mason Crosby), so hopefully this week's gambling will be smoother sailing.

Turkey week means we get triple Thursday night football (and at a reasonable hour), which is something we can all be thankful for.

Week 11:

Outright = 13-1
Spread = 9-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0

Overall:

Outright = 92-69
Spread = 91-70
SFBOTW = 5-6
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0



Texans @ Lions +3
Even though the Lions held GB close and the Texans gave up huge points to the Henne-led Jags, I still think Houston should win this one comfortably. Let's hope Detroit don't put up as much of a fight as they did in my previous SFBOTW.

Texans -3 SFBOTW

Redskins @ Cowboys -3.5
RG3 just put up a near perfect 4 TD game against the Eagles, whereas the Cowboys just struggled to see off Cleveland. Granted, the Cowboys defence is better than Philly's, but I'm still loving the Redskins at these odds.

Skins +3.5 (and to win)

Patriots @ Jets +6.5
Brady just gave Luck a master-class in Elite QBing, and whilst the Jets surprised me by beating the Rams in St. Louis I still think the Pats have more than enough to give NY a divisional walloping. Gronk's injury is a big thorn in their side though, so it will be interesting to see what Belichick concocts in his lengthy absence. 

Pats -6.5

Vikings @ Bears -2.5
With or without Cutler I'll go with the Bears' defence to hold on in this one. By no means a clear cut game though with the thrashing SF just handed them. 

Bears -2.5

Raiders @ Bengals -9.5 
Whilst I'm pretty sure the Bengals will win this, it's a tough one to call as 9.5 is a hefty spread. With that in mind I think I'll leave this to everyone's favourite dynamic duo:

Waffle again makes an assertive choice, and who can blame him? After last week his confidence must be sky high, but Ralph seems reluctant to back him up. Word has it he fancies the Raiders to cover, so let's hope this tension doesn't create a divide in the hive mind.

Bengals -9.5

Steelers @ Browns +1
Another tricky one as the Steelers are clearly in a QB quandry, whereas the Browns have been playing at a reasonable level in recent weeks. With a negligible spread I'll take the Steelers, but wouldn't be at all surprised if the upset happened.

Steelers -1

Wasn't Leftwich in Forrest Gump?

Bills @ Colts -3
Whilst last week's results might incline some to favour Buffalo I still love the Colts (at home) to give anyone a game. 3 points isn't too much of a stretch either, and I'm confident Luck can rebound from their big defeat to New England.

Colts -3 

Titans @ Jags +3
Interesting one given the Jaguars' shockingly good performance vs Houston. The Titans though looked good before the bye, so until Jacksonville show me that wasn't a fluke I'm going to err on the side of caution and take Tennessee.

Titans -3 

Broncos @ Chiefs +10
Even 10 points shouldn't be too much for the Broncos to cover in this one. They just took down the Chargers comfortably and the Chiefs just got dismantled once again by Cincy. It could get very ugly. Also Brady Quinn has been named starter... which is usually license to put your car/house/most attractive female relative on the other team.

Broncos -10

Seahawks @ Dolphins +3
Whilst the Hawks are clearly a far better team at home than away, the Dolphins have lost 2 straight, and I fancy Seattle to make a statement here, with Wilson showing Tannehill who the 3rd best rookie QB really is.

Seahawks -3

Falcons @ Buccs +1
The Buccaneers are not a team to be trifled with, but I can't look past Atlanta at no spread. They've had their ups and downs, and throwing 5 picks last week is not a good sign, but they should have enough quality to find a way to win again here. Julio's injury status is a concern though, so may be wise to leave this 'till we get confirmation.

Falcons -1

Ravens @ Chargers +1
This is definitely worth putting a lot of money on. Sure, Flacco and the Ravens don't tend to do so well on the road, but San Diego have been just awful offensively in recent weeks. Over / under on retarded Rivers' picks will be about 5.

Ravens -1 

Better ask for your P45 now.

Rams @ Cardinals -1
Coming off last week's performances it would be insulting to Arizona to not pick them here. The Rams were very disappointing vs the Jets whereas the Cardinals gave me the close game I looked for against Atlanta. 

Cardinals -1

49ers @ Saints No Spread
Tough one as the Saints are very much on the comeback trail, but the 49ers looked red hot on Monday night vs Chicago so it would feel wrong to pick against them and their offensive wizardry.

49ers

Packers @ Giants -2.5
I'm not even going to hesitate on this one. The Packers will dominate the Giants, who have been incredibly sub par the last few weeks. This one has a very bitter recent history, so should be great viewing. The extra points are just a nice thanksgiving bonus.

Packers +2.5 (and to win) 

Panthers @ Eagles -2.5
The Eagles are in absolute disarray, so I have to side with the Panthers, though admittedly  they aren't in much better shape. It'll be the classic case of whichever team screws up less.

Panthers +2.5 (and to win)

Apologies for the lateness of this one - a lot of the lines were delayed due to questionable QB injury status. Good luck.

*All odds accurate as of 22/11/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' app*

Beating the Bookies: Week 11

An excellent week on the spread. The outrights and my SFBOTW... Not so much. I've managed to build up a quite respectable % on the spread at this point, it's just a shame I can't pin down which particular games are going to screw me over. Still, this week's match-ups look rather more promising, and with the brand new inclusion of some friendly helpers, at least we're having fun.

Week 10:

Outright = 8-6
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 79-68
Spread = 82-65
SFBOTW = 4-6

Just thinking about Matt Moore's glutes

Dolphins @ Bills -1
AFC West show down on Thursday night, and this week starts off with a really tough one to call. A week ago I wouldn't have hesitated to take Miami, but with last Sunday's results I'm in two minds. That being the case I'll leave it to Mystic Waffle and NostraRalphus to decide.

Miami                                 Buffalo

A decisive choice from Waffle, firmly backed up by his colleague. Let's hope their first prediction is as successful as it was delicious. Apologies for the unclear writing, they are still learning.

Bills -1

Cardinals @ Falcons -10
Large spread, and I'm really not sure about this one. The Falcons have been excellent all year, but typically haven't been blowing many teams out. Likewise the Cardinals have a good set-up for rushing the passer, and I gamble on them keeping it just within the spread.

Cards +10 (Falcons to win)

Buccs @ Panthers +1
Tampa continue to look a threat, whereas Carolina continue to lose games. Could well be a tight one, but at this spread I'll take the away side all day.

Buccs -1 

Browns @ Cowboys -8
Tough game to call, as it really depends which Cowboys team shows up on the day. That said, I will ere with the points mainly because the Browns' defence is better than perceived. They also performed well against SD, who in my mind are a similar style of team to the 'Boys (terrible ownership/coaching, retarded QB play, vertical offence, underrated 3-4 defence).

Browns +8 (Cowboys to win)

Packers @ Lions +3.5
A very attractive spread on the face of it, with GB coming fresh off the bye and the Lions a sobering loss to the Vikings. It looks a lock, but being a divisional game means there's always an increased chance of an upset.

Packers -3.5 SFBOTW

Jaguars @ Texans -16
Arguably the best vs arguably the worst, and a spread to match. There is no way the Texans are going to lose this game, but 16 makes even me sweat. They have been blowing better teams out all year though, so with some huge reservations I'll take the clear favourite.

Texans -16

Bengals @ Chiefs +3.5
Another game that looks very becoming. The Bengals just dominated the Giants, whereas the Chiefs have been pretty terrible, although put in a good showing at Pittsburgh. For some reason I'm smelling an upset so will authorise this with a warning label.

Bengals -3.5

Jets @ Rams -3
The Jets look likely to lose another straight NFC West match-up, with the Rams coming off a strong performance with their rare draw vs SF. St. Louis at home with Danny A. back are a tough test for anyone, let alone the floundering Jets. Contender for SFBOTW. Could Tebow be QB1 and throw a magical spanner in my prediction?

Rams -3

Eagles @ Redskins -3
Philly are well and truly on the rocks, and Andy Reid is a dead man walking. The Skins are at home and whilst neck and neck divisionally, have a lot more to play for with the young and promising RG3 as opposed to the Eagles' banged up and ageing Vick.

Skins -3 

Saints @ Raiders +4.5
They've just knocked off the previously undefeated Falcons, and are travelling to a team that just got torn apart by Baltimore. I think the bookies are doing NO a dis-service here, and my only concern is their suspect run defence could face a long day vs the Raiders talented (if healthy) backs. 

Saints -4.5 

Colts @ Patriots -9.5
Whilst Luck was far from perfect in Jacksonville last week, I think he will continue to do enough to at least make it close against the Pats. 

Colts +9.5 (Patriots to win)

He pooped in it moments before.

Chargers @ Broncos -7.5
I don't think the Chargers are done, and certainly have a shot in this game. That said, I expect the Broncos to win. It could be close, but given how bad SD are at playing from behind it seems more like they will implode in the 4th rather taking the game to a nail-biter. The Chargers just aren't any good as keeping games within their reach in clutch situations. Bear in mind though that Norv is playing for his job at this stage.

Broncos -7.5

Ravens @ Steelers -3.5
Very tough game to call. Two very solid teams and I think this one could well go down to the wire, but the Ravens looked far more impressive coming off last week.

Ravens +3.5 (and to win)

Bears @ 49ers -5
I'll take Chicago at these odds all day, sure the 49ers are a good team - but with both QBs questionable with concussions I like the turnover hungry Bears D to make life very difficult for the Niners. I'll still go with the home win though.

Bears +5 (49ers win)

Good luck! 

*All odds accurate as of 13/11/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App*

Beating the Bookies: Week 10

Another excellent week to be a gambler as the favourites almost unanimously performed to expectations. My record continues to grow more respectable, but some of this week's games look like tougher prospects. 

Week 9:

Outright = 11-3
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 1-0

Overall:

Outright = 71-62
Spread = 72-61
SFBOTW = 4-5

Colts @ Jags +3

The Colts and Luck are much better at home, but this is still another very winnable game on a smooth schedule.

Colts -3 

Chargers @ Buccs -3

The Chargers have struggled to beat good sides this year, but the Buccs are not a good side yet... I'm going to back my team, but know this one could be rockier than Norv's face. I'll justify my decision with the Bolt's top 5 run defense.

Chargers +3 (and to win)

Raiders @ Ravens -7.5

The Ravens struggled at times versus the Browns but pulled away in the 4th. I don't see a potentially D-Macless Oakland side causing too many problems in Baltimore.

Ravens -7.5 

Broncos @ Panthers +4

Carolina finally played to their potential and grabbed a big win over the Skins. However Manning and the Broncos will be a bridge too far for the Panthers, even at home.

Broncos -4 

Giants @ Bengals +4 

The Bengals face another tough home game, and whilst the Giants just lost out to the Steelers they should Cruz past Cincy here.

Giants -4 

Power rankings: visual aid edition

Titans @ Dolphins -6

The Titans have been very pedestrian this year, and whilst they are clearly the worse of these two, 6 points is enough for me to bank on when typically Miami's games have been tight this season.

Titans +6 (Dolphins to win)

Lions @ Vikings +1

A resurgent Detroit vs a staggering Minnesota at a negligible spread? I'll take the visitors, although AP is every bit the beast he used to be and could well cause problems.

Lions -1

Bills @ Pats -11

11 points is a large spread, especially in a divisional game. The Pats haven't, generally speaking, been blowing teams out this year so I'll take the points.

Bills +11 (Pats to win)

Falcons @ Saints +1

Really scratching my head on the one point spread here. Arguably the best team in the league deserves more respect even away from home. Sure, the Saints just beat the Eagles (who suck) and aren't as bad as their record suggests... but even so their defence is going to get torched by Jones, White and the rest.

Falcons -1 SFBOTW!!!

Cool. Cool cool cool.

Jets @ Seahawks -6.5

Quite a tough one as 6.5 is a large spread when both teams run conservative ground attacks. However after seeing off the more talented Vikings the Hawks should repeat vs the Jets. 

Seahawks -6.5 

Cowboys @ Eagles -1

The Eagles shot themselves in the foot once more with a failure to convert in the red zone. This is a team in disarray, and whilst the Cowboys aren't much better they should have enough to twist the knife.

Cowboys +1 (and to win)

Let's hope whoever wins the election has a good unemployment plan.

Rams @ 49ers -11

Another big spread, and with both teams fresh off the bye I like this to be just close enough. 

Rams +11 (49ers win)

Texans @ Bears -1

Powerhouse match up here, but I think the Texans are the more complete team. The Bears defence, especially the secondary, is playing out of their skins but J.J. Watt should get very personal with Cutler. It'll be a great one to watch, and I think the Texans will prevail.

Texans +1 (and to win)

Hilarious Cutler pics basically find themselves.

Chiefs @ Steelers -11.5

Kansas are without a doubt the worst team in the league this year, especially offensively. The Steelers at home coming off a big win should knock them out of the park.

Steelers -11.5


I'll leave you with Smith celebrating my most profitable week yet: 

Until next time,

Tommy.

*All odds accurate as of 6/11/12 via Yahoo's "Sportacular" app.*

Everyone's to Blame

My write up on the Spurs - Wigan game yesterday has been published by the Fighting Cock. Please find it here.