My goal at this point is to get my SFBOTW in profit by week 17.
Week 12:
Outright = 11-5
Spread = 8-6-2
SFBOTW = 0-0-1
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0
Overall*:
Outright = 113-64 (64%)
Spread = 98-77-2 (56%)
SFBOTW = 5-6-1
Waffle + Ralph = 2-0
*I recalculated my wins and losses to get the % and found some errors in my favour!
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| Keerrrrr-splat! |
Saints @ Falcons -3.5
Very tasty Thursday night NFC South match-up. The Saints just got beat by the 49ers whereas the Falcons just managed to squeeze by the Buccs. Given how close Atlanta's wins typically are I'll take the points, and fancy the Saints to spring the upset here as well.
Saints +3.5 (and to win)
Jaguars @ Bills -5.5
The Henne-led Jags are a different beast than when Gabbert has the reigns, and with that in mind I'll happily take a modest 6 point cushion. I still expect the Bills to win, as despite a loss at fortress Indy they are still a threat to any team.
Jags +5.5 (Bills win)
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| The Hawks turn on the sprinklers in an effort to generate some kind of home-field atmosphere. |
Seahawks @ Bears -4
Not at all sure about this one, as the Hawks turn to jelly when forced to leave Washington St., but the Bears haven't exactly been setting the world alight either. Whilst I expect there to be ugly play all round, with Forte out and Seattle's pass rush turning Chicago's o-line inside out, ultimately I can't justify picking the visitors until they show they can get it done on the road.
Bears -4
Colts @ Lions -4.5
Interesting one, as the Lions have narrowly lost their last 2 games at home to strong opponents, whereas the Colts typically struggle on the road this year. I'll take the home side, but have reservations as to whether they can cover 5 points.
Lions -4.5
Vikings @ Packers -9.5
Ouch. That's a hefty spread for a team coming off a big loss to the Giants. The Vikings meanwhile just got handed their own beat-down by the Bears, so I'll be staying well away from this one. If I have to pick a team I'll side with the Packers, but I'm not convinced they'll cover.
Packers -9.5
Panthers @ Chiefs +3
Not too difficult a choice for me here. Both teams are done for 2012, but the Panthers are showing a lot more promise coming off a decent win over Philly.
Panthers -3
Patriots @ Dolphins +9
Tough one as 9 points is a large margin, especially for a divisional game on the road. Miami just narrowly beat Seattle, but given the Pats demolition of the Jets, and the fact the Dolphins main strength is their run D (something New England won't be too concerned about) I'll back the visitors to just cover.
Patriots -9
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| Like watching a beautiful car-crash |
Cardinals @ Jets -4.5
I think this is an attractive bet on the face of things. Sure, Arizona just (badly) lost to St. Louis... but the Jets just got torn limb from limb at home, and hopefully after that performance Arizona realise Lindley is not the answer. Whoever they start at QB, the Jets don't have anyone much better.
Cards +4.5 (and to win)
49ers @ Rams +7
The Rams put in a strong performance vs Arizona, but I can't see that continuing when the Niners come to town. Smith or Kaep, they should take care of business by at least a TD.
49ers -7
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| It's awkward when your backup QB is better than their starter |
Texans @ Titans +5.5
I normally don't like picking the same team back to back for my SFBOTW, but when the odds are this good I can't say no. Tennessee just lost to the Jaguars... if they can handle the Texans coming off that then I'm calling BS.
Texans -5.5 SFBOTW!
Buccaneers @ Broncos -8
Interesting one as despite the narrowest of losses to Atlanta the Buccs have looked very strong. Denver, meanwhile, just struggled more than anticipated in beating Kansas City. Despite this I'm going to back Manning to win by more than 8, especially at home.
Broncos -8
Bengals @ Chargers +1
Another tough one, as the Chargers lose a heart-breaker in OT to the Ravens, whereas the Bengals take down the flailing Raiders at home. This could be a key AFC wildcard decider for both sides, and with that in mind I'll leave it to our resident soothsayers:
Waffle again makes a decisive (if highly controversial) selection, proving he is equally happy to pick the away side. Ralph backs him up without hesitation, clearly ashamed of his attitude last week.
Bengals -1
Steelers @ Ravens -8
Big Ben confirmed out as per expectations. 8 points is huge spread considering games between these two are usually slug-fests, but when you look at how poorly Pittsburgh played last week I really can't see any other than a Raven domination here.
Ravens -8
Browns @ Raiders +1
Interesting match-up here between two of the perennial bottom-feeders. With the Browns undergoing something of a renaissance many will like them to pull off the away win here. Beating Charlie Batch is all well and good, but I see this as the sort of game either could grab. Despite that, 8 turnovers (!) and some hard running from T-Rich last week sees the Browns enter as clear favourites in this once.
Browns -1
Eagles @ Cowboys -9.5
9.5 is a huge spread for a divisional rivalry between two sides who at least talent wise are evenly matched. I expect the Cowboys the win, but not by that much even with the Eagles struggling mightily.
Eagles +9.5 (Cowboys win)
Giants @ Redskins +2.5
Tough one to call as both played at a high level last week, and still everything at stake in the NFC East. I'll go with the Skins, as their earlier game at the Meadowlands could have gone either way, and I really really really don't want them to lose this one.
Redskins +2.5 (and to win)
As always, good luck winning large amounts of cash.
*All odds accurate as of 27/11/2012 via Yahoo's sportacular app*
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