Back to back shockers at 7-7 outright and a paltry 5-8 on the spread (putting me into negative numbers on the season!!). This is the stuff nightmares are made of, with Tampa canning my SFBOTW convincingly the rotten cherry on top of this particularly rancid cake.
Still, onwards and upwards, and this weeks' games are a much more respectable bunch, on the face of it.
Week 10:
Outright = 7-7
Spread = 5-8
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 94-54
Spread = 71-73-4
SFBOTW = 6-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 260-145
Spread = 211-187-7
SFBOTW = 14-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Colts @ Titans +2.5 Sky Sports 2
A pretty decent Thursday night match up, even if I thought there was no chance both these two would be coming into this one on a loss. I like the Titans, but even after last week's shellecking by St. Louis the Colts should expect to win here, especially with Locker out and (the not bad at all as back ups go) Fitzpatrick stepping in. The Titans are at home, and should improve from their ugly loss to Jacksonville, but I still think they'll struggle to win in this one.
The spread is easily small enough to double down on Indy.
Colts -2.5
Sunday First Wave
Jets @ Bills -1
What looks to be another closely contested affair in this AFC East dog fight. The Bills were less than impressive against the Steelers, even with EJ Manuel back in charge, but their ground game does seem to be getting its legs back with Spiller finally healthy. Unfortunately for CJ and co. they face one of the toughest run defences in the league, with the Jets' brutal defensive line sure to make life a misery for Buffalo despite them holding the home field. Most games are won and lost in the trenches, and this will be no different.
A slight swing towards the Jets just sweetens the deal.
Jets +1 (and to win)
Ravens @ Bears -2.5
What should be another tight one with the Culter-less Bears hosting the Ravens, fresh off a divisional win over the Bengals. I'm torn here, as on the one hand the Bears are minus their QB1, but on the other they are at home and playing a Ravens side that does not typically travel well.
The spread makes what is a relatively tough decision rather easy.
Ravens +2.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Bengals -5.5 Sky Sports 2
Cleveland are fresh off a bye, Cincy are fresh off an ugly loss to Baltimore. As much as they are wildly inconsistent, I can't see the hosts dropping back to back divisional games, especially against the Browns, who despite a great defence are consistently hamstrung by below average QB play and a toothless offence.
The spread is large but I feel pretty comfortable that they can win by a score, even if most Bengals fans (don't go to bed just yet) will probably disagree.
Bengals -5.5
Raiders @ Texans -7.5
Oakland have fallen off the pace a bit in recent weeks, with Pryor losing some of his gloss and the cracks are beginning to show (as you would expect from an already threadbare roster that is ravaged by key injuries). Houston meanwhile may have found their QB of the future, or at least someone who is worthy of having a crack at the job, in Case Keenum, but are not exactly in a great spot with Arian Foster done for the year and his back up Ben Tate playing through a handful of broken ribs. I think they'll have enough to beat Oakland at home, but I don't expect to see them challenging over a play off berth come December.
This spread is a very attractive one, and I definitely think the Raiders are capable of covering.
Raiders +7.5 (Texans win)
Cardinals @Jaguars +6.5
Let's here it for the Jacksonville Jaguars. A gritty win over a divisional foe is just what this team needed after languishing at the bottom of the NFL all year. Unfortunately they have the Cardinals visiting for an encore, who themselves just saw off the Texans are who's elite defence will make life a misery for the rag tag offence plying it's trade in Jacksonville Florida professional football is not where it is at, right now.
At under a score this should be a cake walk for Arizona, and one I'll be targeting heavily.
Cardinals -6.5 SFBOTW
Redskins @ Eagles -3.5
Very interesting match up with two soft as butter pass defences going up against the in form Nick Foles and the always dangerous RG3. This is a game that I feel could go either way, and being a divisional encounter adds an extra element of uncertainty and tension. The Redskins need to win here to keep their slim playoff dream alive, but I think the Eagles will come through at home and edge a close game. Foles is not as good as he has looked the last couple of weeks, but even at half speed they could score enough on this defence to seal the deal.
I'll hedge my bets and take the spread here, as it could well be a close fought thing.
Redskins +3.5 (Eagles to win)
Lions @ Steelers +1
Pittsburgh seem to have sailed out of the worst of it, but Big Ben's rumoured wanderlust is as concerning as it is surprising for Steelers' faithful. Detroit are finally finding their legs this season and seem to be putting their potential into practice (coincidentally coinciding with Jim Schwartz's super rad makeover?). I like them to grab a win here by narrow margins, fresh off the bye.
The spread doesn't change much.
Lions -1
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| This is not a man you would trust your kids with. |
Falcons @ Buccaneers -1
Bargain basement NFC South match up between two teams that were supposed to be far, far better than they have been. The Falcons lost out to Seattle, whereas Tampa ambushed a dizzy Dolphins squad. Those results aside, I'd still expect Atlanta to win here - the Buccs are paper thin at RB having now lost Mike James for the season in addition to Doug Martin.
Falcons +1 (and to win)
49ers @ Saints -3.5 Sky Sports 2
A very interesting match up, with the Saints fresh off a demolition of Dallas, and SF coming off a narrow home loss to Carolina. The gulf between these two is much closer to the latter performance, but it is still a game I'd expect New Orleans to win at home judging by current form.
The spread is very doable, if you can get it down to 3 do so though.
Saints -3.5
Chargers @ Dolphins +1
Another loss by a score or less for SD, who have yet to lose a game by more than 8 points this season. That said, they've still lost 5 so far, so it will come as a relief that they get to use up a tough East coast trip to the most dysfunctional team in the league (I think the Buccs managed to pass the curse on), the Miami Dolphins. Whilst they still have talent, I don't see the game breakers that are going to put up enough points to keep pace with Rivers, and a Chargers D that has been hit and miss this season should have a good day versus the Dolphins weapons.
At -1 I'm loving this spread.
Chargers -1
Vikings @ Seahawks -13.5
This should be a very one sided affair, the highlight being Percy Harvin's likely return against the team that traded him. However it will also be interesting to see if Seattle's pass protection can improve, and whether they can get back to the kind of form we are used to after last week's scarily close call versus Tampa.
The spread turns this from an easy call to a very difficult one, but I'm going to err on the side of caution and take the points until I'm sold Seattle are back to their best.
Vikings +13.5 (Seahawks win)
Packers @ Giants -6
What should be another tight one with the Rodger-less Packers hoping to grab a win over the languishing Giants. They will have to travel though, and their lack of a starting QB puts them in a difficult position against Eli and the Giants, who whilst terrible this season usually save their best for this kind of game. They've had their number in the past, I don't expect that to change now with Rodgers out, nor do I expect Flynn to come close to his previous Packer performances.
The spread makes this difficult for me, I'll think I'll err on the side of caution though.
Packers +6 (Giants to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Chiefs @ Broncos -9.5
The game of the week between the two best teams in the league right now, yes the Chiefs have played a soft schedule, but Denver's hasn't been much harder. At home I expect the Broncos to win here, but how much Manning's bum ankle troubles him will be key. This will be the greatest test for a so far extremely impressive defence, if they can harry Manning enough they stand a good chance of winning, but I still have to side with Denver to grab the W here.
9.5 is a huge spread, I'm all over the Chiefs at anything close to this.
Chiefs +9.5 (Broncos win)
Sunday Night
Patriots @ Panthers -1
This should be a cracking match up, with one of the best front 7s in football matching up against a Patriots side that should finally have all it's weapons back in play. I like Carolina to pull off the win here, they should dominate up front and make life very difficult for Brady.
The spread is negligible, so I'll stick with it.
Panthers -1
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