Week 17 was certainly an eventful one, and whilst it was a slightly damp note finishing with my worst spread this year at a pathetic 4-12 and my SFBOTW missing again, an impressive 13-3 outright did alleviate that somewhat. Best of all the impossible happened and the Chargers somehow scraped their way into the post-season.
Ultimately it was another solid year outright, finishing with 64% correct (only one game behind my record last year), and beating the vast majority of NFL network analysts.
The spread was less satisfactory at 51% (compared to 55% last season) and whilst it is still encouraging to be (just) in the positive, it is a sign of how much less football I've been able to properly watch this year that I've slipped that little bit.
My sure fire bets were again pretty much consistent with the rest of my predicting, showing that my best guesses are just as good (or bad) as my less confident ones.
In the post-season last year I put on a Flacco-esque clutch performance, only getting one outright wrong, so let's hope I can match that this year...
Week 17:
Outright = 13-3
Spread = 4-12
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 165-92
Spread = 129-124-4
SFBOTW = 9-8
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 331-183
Spread = 269-238-7
SFBOTW = 17-16-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Season Trends:
Before we move on to the post-season let's peer into how the year went in more detail. All season I've been keeping track of who I bet on and the consequences - not to try and straighten out any personal leanings but simply as it turns up some amusing and intriguing tendencies.
Each team has 2 scores - the for/against (how often I was right/wrong totalled up) and the backed total (how many times I backed them/went against them).
Top 3 Least Accurate Teams:
The teams I found the least reliable. Hang your heads in shame!
Last year's winner: Carolina (-8).
T3. Bills / Patriots (-6)
An AFC East duo in at number 3, both of which I was on the fence on all year. Both team's injuries no doubt played a part, but for the most part I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
The Bengals were inconsistent in real life, so it's no surprise I found it hard to pin them down on the spread. I trended towards backing them at +4, but it was the times I went against them that hurt me. All 6 times I picked their opponents they failed to beat the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-14)
-14... there are no words, that's almost double how bad I was for Carolina last year. To put it in perspective, it equates to me only picking the correct spread in a Saints game ONCE all year. That's 15 times where I got it wrong. I slightly favoured them at +2, but clearly I was just not on the pulse. I blame their inconsistent away form, and the fact I didn't pick up on it.
Top 3 Most Accurate Teams:
My gold stars of consistency go to the following...
Last year's winner: Tennessee (+10)
3. Chiefs / Giants / Raiders (+6)
A three way tie grabs my bronze medal, KC due to their consistent winning ways - NY and Oakland due to the opposite (happily coinciding with my well established bias against their franchises).
2. Green Bay Packers (+8)
Slightly surprising to see the Packers this high, when they've had what is really a very pedestrian season especially with Rodgers going down. I trended slightly away from them at -2, and was more successful when backing their opponents. Perhaps I cottoned on to their fall from grace earlier than most? Or maybe I was just lucky.
1. Tennessee Titans (+10)
Yes Tennessee. Words cannot say how much I am loving seeing them repeat as my most consistent team. Not only that, but they've perfectly matched their winning score from last year. I have no particular affinity for this franchise (I sat on the fence all year finishing at exactly 0), but they are fast carving out a massive soft spot in my gambling heart. I need to make sure I don't let this colour my view of them for next year - I want to see them back here in 12 months time more than you can imagine.
Most Disregarded Teams:
Those I've backed the least this season, justified?
Last year's winner: Miami (-14)
T2. Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh (-10)
Cleveland (-2 F/A) and Houston (+3 F/A) can be written off as two terrible teams that I didn't shy away from leaning away from. Pittsburgh (0 F/A) was the same early one but I failed to pick up on their change of fortunes until it was too late.
1. New York Giants (-12)
As mentioned earlier, the Giants (+6) sucking was fortunate, as I'd have probably gone against them lot anyway. As it was I finished with a solid positive total on the beleaguered NFC East franchise, only backing them twice and both times hitting on the rare occasions they broke the spread.
BFFs:
Teams I couldn't help myself but keep backing all season - whether it was based on form or band-wagoning I'll let you decide.
Last year's winner: Indianapolis (+14)
2. Cardinals / Chiefs (+6)
I'm not terribly surprised to see either of these two here, and with positive records for both KC (+6) and 'Zona (+2) in terms of for/against I was right to have faith in them. With both
1. Colts / Chargers (+10)
A tie, with (you've guessed it) SD vying with Indy for my most favoured team. I'm not really sure why I've backed the Colts (-2) so much 2 years running (I'm always the one arguing against Luck in the ol' which amazing young QB is the most amazing debate), but you can't argue with statistics. I shouldn't have been so bullish on them as it put me in the negative, but it is interesting that the 3 times I did go against them they beat the spread. Not really a surprise to see the Chargers (0 F/A) here, I'm just happy my bias didn't put me in the negative on them.
Wildcard Predictions
Saturday Evening
Chiefs @ Colts -2.5
The Colts stomped the Chiefs in the regular season a few weeks ago, but with KC effectively coming off a bye week they will be well rested and ready to roll here. I love what Andy Reid has done with this team, and they have more quality than the Colts in almost every position bar QB. I think they have this.
The spread sweetens the pot.
Chiefs +2.5 (and to win)
Saturday Night
Saints @ Eagles -2.5
NO are forced to travel to brave the elements and face Chip Kelly's Eagles, thanks to the latter's dramatic victory over Dallas. As we've all seen, the Saints do not fare well on the road, and the Eagles could carve a deep path in the post-season with their explosive style of offence. I'm going Philly.
The spread doesn't sway me.
Eagles -2.5
Sunday Evening
Chargers @Bengals -7
Somehow the Chargers have snuck in, and I'm over the moon. Especially as this is one of the easier wild card match ups they could have asked for as a #6 seed. This Cincy squad has some playoff experience now, but unfortunately it all involves being one and done. Now, I know the Chargers' struggled to beat KC's backups in the week just gone, but it's easier to imagine how that performance can happen with emotions riding high following the news of the early games. I'm willing to bet if they had played at 6pm it would have been a very different game, and I think SD bring the dangerous offence and opportunistic defence that we saw against Denver into Cincy, and steal a playoff victory.
The spread is big, so obviously I'm lapping it up.
Chargers +7 (and to win) SFBOTW
49ers @ Packers +2.5
Another great game to close out the wild card round, and a rematch of last year where Kaep ran roughshod over the Pack. A lot has changed since then, and this should be a much more even affair, especially with both teams getting key injured personnel back just in time. I like SF to grab this, but it could definitely go either way.
The spread is small, but I think SF should win by a fg.
SF -2.5
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