YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.
Football is finally back, and we can put to bed a long and injury riddled off-season, full of stories about Colin Kaepernick's hats and more arrest warrants than a season of The Shield. Sure, we may be about to close the book of the phenom that was(?) Tebow time, but ignore that and be safe in the knowledge we are about to embark on a glorious 6 months of the greatest sport in the world.
Even more importantly, this means there is meaningful, NFL football back for us to profit from, and I have high hopes of edging out my solid results from last season (see below). I feel like this coming season has even more teams who we expect to win and win often than there were in 2013. No doubt this is partly due to the emergence of the 'Gang of Four' gifting lucky teams franchise QBs seemingly overnight, but whatever the reason now is the perfect time to get down and dirty with some NFL spread betting.
Week 1 is of course, a time of great uncertainty. We know what has occurred in the draft, we know who the big movers and shakers have been in free agency. What we don't know is how these new acquisitions, new head coaches, and new atmospheres are going to pan out for the 32 teams striving to make the Super Bowl (or in the Jets and Raiders case, just hold on). Never fear though, NFL fan with some disposable income to burn, that's where I'm here to help. Maybe.
2012/13:
Outright = 166-91 (65%)
Spread = 140-114-3 (55%)
SFBOTW = 8-8-1 (50%)
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (67%)
Ravens @ Broncos -7.5
The big opener and a chance for revenge for Manning and the Broncos. There's no doubt who the favourite is here, and it's not the SB champs. I'm not as down on the Ravens as a lot of people seem to be, and I think they have more questions to answer offensively than on their revamped defense. If the spread was a little bigger here (it's dropped recently) I'd go with Baltimore, but at just over a score I'm going to have to side with the home team.
Broncos -7.5
Patriots @ Bills +10
This spread has shot up since lines opened with the Bills in a quandary at QB. If they can get EJ back healthy they could have a promising year, but even with the talented Mr. Spiller they will be no match for the Pats (ignore the talk they'll still be formidable). I liked this a lot more when it was a one score spread but I'd still eat 10 happily here.
Patriots -10
Seahawks @ Panthers +3
I'm a little surprised to see the spread this low, but then you look at how Seattle struggled on some road games last year before their end of year blow-out streak. The Panthers will be a better team this year (Kuechly is already one of the best in the league at his position), but I'd still except the 'Hawks to win by at least a TD even on the road and light on pass rushers due to injuries and suspensions. SFBOTW contender.
Seahawks -3
Bengals @ Bears -3
The stars of Hard Knocks make their way to Chicago to test themselves against a stringent Bears' D and an unproven offence courtesy of CFL import coach Marc Trestman. Cincy are generating a lot of hype, and with good reason as they have all the pieces in place to launch a deep play-off run. The Bears week 1 will not be an easy test though, but they have the better chance of winning with a D-line that should harry Cutler throughout.
Bengals +3 (and to win)
Dolphins @ Browns (Pick 'em)
Miami have officially taken KC's mantle this year as the most over-hyped team for reasons I'm struggling to understand. They went big in FA and their main prize was a diva deep threat WR with questionable hands. That sounds like a recipe for success if you are playing Madden, not real life football where being fast is not the only important factor. However as much as I think they are getting over-rated, the Browns aren't far behind. Everyone seems to have pegged Jordan Cameron as the next Gates just because he's in a Norv Turner offence (good luck with that), and whilst their D is solid it won't be enough for anywhere near a winning season. Can I pick them both to lose?
Dolphins
Vikings @ Lions -3.5
Interesting match-up here as both these two teams would hope to be competitive in the NFC North, but last year the Vikings somewhat over-performed whereas the Lions definitely did the opposite. I'm not sure that projected swing warrants the Lions being favourites by this much, but I would still expect them to win. This one could go either way but I'll take the points in what Minnesota will try and keep a tight low scoring affair.
Vikings +3.5 (Lions win)
Raiders @ Colts -10
No prizes for guessing who is going to be the favourite in this one. I think the Colts will drop a few games this year when their luck catches up to them (no pun intended), but they will still dismantle a thread-bare Raiders roster. Unless Pryor goes supernova Oakland have no chance of winning. 10 points is a lot though, so reader beware.
Colts -10
Chiefs @ Jags +3.5
Loving this spread more every time I see it. KC look like they have all the pieces in place to finally start living up to the talent on their roster. Yes, I know people said that last year (I most definitely was not one of them), but with much better QB play and better coaching they should handle the Jaguars by a score at least. Fantasy tip: the A. Smith to J. Charles short passing connection could be huge this year. Time to give them the kiss of death and label this my sure fire bet of the week.
Chiefs -3.5 SFBOTW
Falcons @ Saints -3
Falcons with points? Yes please. Yep, I agree NO will be back to their old tricks with Payton back at the helm, but their defence is still woeful and it'll take more than one off-season for Rob Ryan to fix that. I see them getting back to their turnover hungry Super Bowl winning defence in a couple of years (Kenny Vacarro is a great addition), but right now I'll gobble those 3 points up.
Falcons +3 (and to win)
Buccaneers @ Jets +3
Again this is a spread I love and a SFBOTW contender. The Jets defence will be good, their offence could be the worst in the league. For reals. With huge question marks over who will be starting QB for gang green I'd take Tampa by a TD let alone a FG here. It's my belief the Buccs will struggle somewhat this season and look for a new QB in 2015, but they'll have more than enough to beat a toothless NY side.
Buccs -3
Titans @ Steelers -7
Shout out to my most reliable team of 2013 the Tennessee Titans. I'm going to give them a vote of confidence for their loyal service and say they scrape the spread here. Pittsburgh are old, injured and generally very meh right now, their opponents should have a reinvigorated run game behind Chance Warmack and could pull off a few upsets this season.
Titans +7 (Steelers win)
Packers @ 49ers -4.5
The 49ers tore GB a new one in the playoffs last season, and you can bet the Pack have spent countless hours in the film room and on the practice field figuring out how to stop Kaepernick and the read option. It won't matter. SF to win by a touchdown and set the tone in the NFC week 1.
49ers -4.5
Cardinals @ Rams -4.5
Two under-rated teams (although it's getting to that weird point where they're called under-rated so much they become over rated now), who if playing in a different division would be in with wildcard shots. No-one has more belief the Cardinals can surprise people this year than me, but losing #1 pick Jonathan Cooper to a broken leg is a big blow. I'll go with the hosts in this one, but would love to see a Honey Badger inspired Cards upset.
Rams -4.5
Giants @ Cowboys -3.5
As my regular readers will know I never have much faith in the Giants. Part of that is personal bias and my belief Eli is as over-rated as they come, part is the fact they will now be relying on David 'butter fingers' Wilson to carry them through this season. My ideal scenario: Wilson fumbles 3 times in the opener, forcing the Giants to go to a pass heavy offence all season leading to Eli throwing 30 picks and being labelled the new Rivers. That won't happen, but the Cowboys will still win by a touchdown here.
Cowboys -3.5
Eagles @ Redskins -3.5
This should be a fantastic game to watch with Chip Kelly's much lauded offence facing off against a hopefully healthy Griffin. I'll take the Redskins here as their defense is far superior, and I can feel myself getting the tell-tales chills of a nasty case of RG3ever all over again.
Redskins -3.5
Texans @ Chargers +3.5
I can't tell whether it's my homerism or if the Chargers are genuinely being unfairly slated this season. I've seen them ranked on a par with the Jets, which is just insulting. I think they'll surprise a few people this year. That said, they are still going to lose to Houston on Monday night, and likely by more than 3.5. This is actually another very safe bet, it pains me to admit.
Texans -3.5
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