This weeks games are mostly un-backable, just some terrible terrible games to call - so if you're ever tempted to take a week off the sauce, make it this one. There are a few diamonds in the rough though, so read on for which ones to target.
Week 4:
Outright = 10-5
Spread = 8-6-1
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 40-23
Spread = 32-28-3
SFBOTW = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 206-114
Spread = 172-142-6
SFBOTW = 11-9-1
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)
Thursday Night
Bills @ Browns -4.5 Sky Sports 1
A historically un-sexy Thursday night game for us this week on the face of it, but with both teams coming off surprise wins at the weekend this could actually be an even and entertaining game. Cleveland's offence somehow seems to have improved by leaps and bounds since trading Trent, but I'm not sold yet - I want to see them beat someone better than the Vikings or Bengals (in a home divisional trap game) before I believe things have changed for the Browns. The Bills, meanwhile, were more opportunistic than great in their win over an inconsistent Ravens' outfit. I like the points here, but Cleveland should grab another win at home if they are what they have looked over the last 2 weeks.
Bills +4.5 (Browns win)
Sunday First Wave
Saints @ Bears OTB
OTB, tough road game for NO, but they should scrape it.
Patriots @ Bengals -1
OTB, but this could be a tighter game than the bookies will set.
Lions @ Packers -7
The Lions were impressive in a confident win over Chicago, but away at Lambeau versus a Packers' team fresh off the bye is not a good recipe for success for any team. I like GB to rack up another win here, having had 2 weeks to mull over their wasteful performance @ Cincy. The points are a little much and would feel more comfortable at -6.5, but I'll take it.
Packers -7
Seahawks @ Colts -1
Seattle struggled to beat Houston, but that game was never going to be a gimme, especially the majority of their offensive line backups due to injuries. This game won't be a walk over either, with the Colts in a nice run of form off two away wins (yes, one was versus the Jags), but -1 is a pretty pathetic spread for maybe the strongest team in the league. SFBOTW contender, especially if they can get some of those questionable OL to kit up.
Seahawks -1
Ravens @ Dolphins -3 Sky Sports 3
Very tough one to call, with the Ravens coming off an upset to Buffalo and the Dolphins falling back to earth with a convincing loss to NO. I still think the Ravens have the better pedigree here, and the points are just an added bonus. This could definitely go the way of a blow out to either side though. Avoid.
Ravens +3 (and to win)
Eagles @ Giants +1
At 0-4, the Giants are easily the worst non-terrible team in the NFL. They aren't as bad as their record, but they shouldn't get people's respect just for being a big-market, former SB winning squad, either. That said, their problems are mostly of their own making, rather than simply lacking the personnel to win (in Jacksonville's case). The Eagles meanwhile are also better than 1-3 would suggest, having played a fairly tough schedule so far. This will be a game both will be desperate to win, and advantage has to go to Philly despite the fact my gut is telling me NY are going to grab a much needed W here. As I'm indecisive, I'm turning this over to the latest addition to the menagerie:
I guess sneezing yourself onto the pick counts.
Eagles -1
Chiefs @ Titans +2.5
Another brutal game to call, with both teams playing very well. The Chiefs just beat the more dangerous of the NY teams though, and away, so I like them to grab another win here. The Titans are more than capable of pulling off an upset though, if KC's offence isn't efficient. 2.5 is a marginal spread, so we'll give them the benefit of the doubt at 4-0. I'll be avoiding this.
Chiefs -2.5
Jaguars @ Rams -11.5
This should be a much needed easy win for the Rams, but these are the sort of games the Jags will be eyeing up if they are to avoid going 0-16. 11.5 is a huge spread for a Rams team that hasn't been explosive on offence, I like them to win by a score or two, but may actually do the unthinkable and back the Jags to keep an ugly game within reach. Another one to avoid.
Jaguars +11.5 (Rams to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Panthers @ Cardinals +1
Yet another tough game to call, with the Cardinals pulling off the away win in Tampa, and the Panthers fresh off a bye following their mauling of the Giants. Two great defensive front 7s will make this a close one, but both teams also boast offenses capable of making their a shootout to boot. I like Carolina to edge this one, but the Cardinals could easily win this as well. Avoid!
Panthers -1
Broncos @ Cowboys +7.5 Sky Sports 3
Finally, a game I feel confident about the result in, and an attractive spread on top. Denver have been straight up killing it this year, putting up touchdowns like they are going out of fashion, whereas Dallas just got out classed in San Diego. I like the Broncos to be ruthless and win by a good margin here.
Broncos -7.5
Sunday Night
Texans @ 49ers -7
Houston were unlucky not to close out their game versus Seattle, whereas SF despite struggling early on managed to outscore the Rams fairly comfortably in the end. I like the 49ers at home to continue to impress - I can't see the Texans offence putting up many points against an always formidable defence, so this will be on Kaepernick and his motley crew of targets to play clinically and grab the win. 7 points seems about right for me, so I'll stick with the Niners.
49ers -7
Chargers @ Raiders +4.5
A brutal 04:35 kick off in this game, so die-hard West Coast fans will be better off getting up and watching this before work Monday rather than trying to stay awake. SD are coming off the back of a confident performance over Dallas, despite dealing with their fair share of injuries, whereas a Flynn-led Oakland struggled mightily in their loss to Washington, despite the Skins giving them ample opportunities to put the game to bed. Having Pryor back should make this competitive, but I still feel very confident the Chargers will come into Oakland and grab a valuable division win by a healthy margin. Despite losing veteran pass-rusher Freeney in their last win, they have have been putting up enough big scorelines to force an unconvincing Raiders' offence to play catch-up.
Chargers -4.5 SFBOTW
Monday Night
Jets @ Falcons -9.5
The Jets are in no danger of winning this game to the Falcons in Atlanta, even despite their narrow loss to NE. 9.5 points is a heady margin, but definitely one I'd feel comfortable taking.
Falcons -9.5
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