Week 6 included the most one-sided games, going into it, that we've seen in a while, so it's not surprise I bounced back with a solid 11-4 outright. However, despite me picking the winners more often than not, a lot of teams broke the spread against me - whether it was Jax or Buffalo playing their opponents closer than I anticipated, or teams like SF winning more convincingly than I predicated.
Still, despite a paltry 8-7 outright, both my key markets hit with my SFBOTW coming in comfortably and Gnome going 2-0 this season.
Week 7 should be a hard week on the face of it, with nothing in particular catching my eye... but let's get into it.
Week 6:
Outright = 11-4
Spread = 8-7
SFBOTW = 1-0
Animal Corner = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 59-33
Spread = 46-43-3
SFBOTW = 4-2
Animal Corner = 2-0
All Time:
Outright = 225-124
Spread = 186-157-6
SFBOTW = 12-10-1
Animal Corner = 6-2-1
Thursday Night
Seahawks @ Cardinals + 6 Sky Sports 1
The Cardinals just lost to the SF, whereas the Seahawks struggled at home to beat the Titans. Despite those conflicting results this should be a very interesting encounter, and a divisional game on the road is never one where you want to hand the win to an albeit stronger team.
I definitely think the Cardinals have the potential to run the Hawks close, even if they probably won't come away with the win. Not one I'd like to bet on either way, but I'll take the points here.
Cardinals +6 (Seahawks win)
Sunday First Wave
Buccaneers @ Falcons -9.5
The Glennon era in Tampa is not off to a great start, but the Falcons are in as bad shape having lost star WR Julio Jones for the season. I have few misgivings about picking Atlanta to win at home here, even with their injuries they have enough weapons to get the job done.
9.5 is far too large a spread to feel comfortable with though, so I definitely like the Buccs to cover.
Buccs +9.5 (Falcons win)
Rams @ Panthers -5.5
I don't think many foresaw the Rams smashing the Texans like that, but the Panthers overcome the hapless Vikings comfortably in their game. At home this looks to favour Carolina, but St. Louis are no pushovers.
5.5 makes me a little nervous either way, and I'll definitely be avoiding this game like the plague. Over to the beast.
A nose towards St. Louis before settling on Carolina. Clearly she shares my misgivings.
Panthers -5.5
Bengals @ Lions -1 Sky Sports 2
Another tough one to call, with both coming off road wins even if Detroit's was the more convincing. At home I wouldn't hesitate to take Cincy here, but they have struggled away. The Lions have been equally inconsistent, so I am really torn.
I think I'll side with who I think are the better team, even if recent results give me fair cause for concern. Definitely one to avoid.
Bengals +1 (and to win)
Bills @ Dolphins -8
The Bills shocked me by running Cincy close, and fair play to Thad Lewis - the kid can play. @ Miami coming off a bye will be a fair tougher prospect however, so I don't expect them to slip up to Buffalo here.
8 points is a large margin though, especially for a team that isn't necessarily one of the strongest in the league. I like Buffalo to just cover.
Bills +8 (Dolphins to win)
Chargers @ Jaguars +9.5
I didn't think a Chargers win on MNF was out of the question, but a win built on a strong ground game, stingy defence, and the secondary closing out the game? That's just not Chargers football. At Jacksonville they should improve to 4-3, which may surprise some people, but not me.
9.5 is very healthy, but I like the Bolts to win by more than a score, Jacksonville raised their game against much favour Denver, but they won't play at that level week in week out.
Chargers -9.5
Patriots @ Jets +4
Brady proved again why he is one of the very best at game winning drives, despite not getting a lot of help from his WRs. The Jets fell to Pittsburgh in an ugly game at home, and there's no reason to think NE will be any less of challenge, even if they came close last time they played.
Patriots -4
Cowboys @ Eagles (Pick 'em)
Key NFC East match up here, with a divisional title to stake a claim on. Even away I like the Cowboys matching but with a weak Eagles secondary, but the Eagles fast paced offence should quickly tire and already decimated 'Boys defensive line. If Foles can limit turnovers this should be very interesting, and I'm going to make a controversial selection and take them to edge Romo out off the back of more explosive running from Shady.
Eagles
Bears @ Redskins (Pick 'em)
Another even encounter, but one I feel far more confident in with a dominant Bears team travelling to struggling Washington. Whilst the 'Skins have the potential to win most games, Chicago should look to continue their offensive hot streak against a terrible secondary.
Bears
Sunday Second Wave
49ers @ Titans +4
Tennessee held the Seahawks to within a score at Century Link, no mean feat. The 49ers eased into a lead against the Cardinals that is not a great indication of what was a back and forth game. I like the Titans at home to give anyone a game, but SF not winning here would definitely constitute an upset.
4 points being the marginal spread that it is I'll stick with the Niners.
49ers -4
Texans @ Chiefs -6.5 Sky Sports 2
No definite confirmation yet of whether Schaub's injury will sideline him versus KC, but either way I like the Chiefs (fresh off of a divisional beat down of Oakland) to continue their winning ways at home. Kansas City are playing great football right now, and as one of only two undefeated teams left standing they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It is fairly shocking that the AFC West could well be following in the NCF's footsteps as going from one of the worst divisions in football to one of the best.
I like the Chiefs to win by a score here, off the back of their great defence and low risk, high reward offence.
Chiefs -6.5
Browns @ Packers -11
Cleveland showed they are back to their old selves minus Hoyer, whereas GB squeezed past Baltimore despite taking hits on the injury front. It is very hard to look past the Packers at home in this one, but I don't think it will be a blow out.
This is a very generous spread, considering the Packers are down to bare bones at WR. They'll look to rely on Lacy more in the ground game, but even with Cleveland not looking likely to put up numbers, or many points, their defence should keep close enough to break this.
Browns +11 (Packers to win)
Ravens @ Steelers -1
It's a divisional game, and the Ravens may be coming off a loss compared to the Steelers finally getting a win, but I still think there is a big gulf between these two sides. The reigning champs are by no means the best in the league, but they are a solid team - and should take advantage of an injured and sub-par Pittsburgh squad, albeit one that is slowly clawing its way back to form.
A very attractive spread with the Ravens underdogs makes this my SFBOTW.
Ravens +1 (and to win) SFBOTW
Sunday Night
Broncos @ Colts +5.5
The marquee game of the week sees Peyton Manning return to his old stomping grounds in what will be a very warm reception for the league's most dominant passer. Luck and the Colts will be looking to bounce back from a MNF loss that was as much due to their own miscues as it was great play from San Diego, but even so I like the Broncos to take this one and remain perfect.
The spread is comfortable I feel, but the Colts are always capable of pulling off an upset - and if any organisation is set up with the knowledge to out scheme Manning it is his former employers.
Broncos -5.5
Monday Night
Vikings @ Giants -3.5
Two floundering squads, both desperate for a win, makes this an intriguing game. The Vikings got well and truly stomped by Carolina last week, whereas the Giants continued their sloppy play in a loss to Chicago, albeit not by as much as I anticipated. I do think the Giants are finding their feet faster, but should Josh Freeman get the nod this week it could be Minnesota the shot in the arm they so sorely need.
I like the Giants to take this one at home and finally get off the mark, but the spread makes this an easy choice for the Vikes.
Vikings +3.5 (Giants to win)
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