Beating the Bookies: Week 4

Last week was not a good one to be predicting results with upsets all over the board. 

Whilst the Vikings handling the 49ers may be the most attention grabbing, the Chiefs putting the Saints to 0-3 and the Lions failing to beat the Titans despite some late game heroics made for a crazy crazy week in the NFL. Not only that but the Raiders decided they would stop getting flagged every other down and beat the Steelers (and my SFBOTW!). 

All in all it meant my record has taken a nasty hit. Have I lost all credibility? Did I have any to begin with? Read on to find out. 

Week 3:

Outright: 6/16

Spread: 5/16

SFBOTW: 0/1

Season:

Outright: 23/48

Spread: 23/48

SFBOTW: 1/3

Browns @ Ravens -13

Putting football in perspective.

Big 'ol spread here, but one of the very worst playing the very best (plus homefield). Have to think this will be a blow out of epic proportions.

Ravens -13 

Patriots @ Bills +3.5

You have to like these odds, the Patriots narrowly lost to an extremely well polished Ravens side (spurred on by an emotional Torrey Smith performance), whereas the Bills are now down to their 3rd choice RB.

I like Belichick to stop the rot and make a statement against their divisional rivals here. 

Patriots -3.5 SFBOTW!

49ers @ Jets +4

The 49ers hit a major roadblock against an impressive Ponder led performance on Sunday - I bank on them recovering in time for this juicy inter-conference match-up between two hard hitting defences and questioned offences. 

Losing Revis for the year to an ACL is a huge blow (and just one of many big injuries last week), so I've got to side with the Niners.

49ers -3.5 

Seahawks @ Rams +3

Monday night's performance was impressive if ruined by flags. However there is still the nag that Seattle don't perform well away from home or against easier opposition. Despite those misgivings I'll go with the Hawks - just don't expect any sort of blow out.

Seattle -3

Panthers @ Falcons -9

The Falcons are hotter than Hansel, having taken down 3 AFC West contenders in as many weeks. This is a team that barring an injury can go all the way, boasting a deadly offence complemented by a turnover hungry D.

Matt Ryan, so hot right now.

The Panthers meanwhile are 1-2, and in something of a crisis. A 9 point margin makes this a difficult one to call, especially as we haven't seen Atlanta's defence face a mobile QB yet, but I'll side with the Falcons to squeeze the spread.

Falcons -9

Vikings @ Lions -4

The lions have been disappointing so far – whereas the Vikings have performed above expectations – shocking San Francisco last week.

However, I still think the Lions at home have the upper hand in this one, Megatron is due a big game, and my gut tells me to stick with Detroit.

Lions -4

Chargers @ Chiefs +1

Jackie Battle (now a Bolt) tearing up SD in the 2011 game.

A vintage 2011 Chargers performance, complete with Rivers' favourite trick play: the 'throw the ball out of bounds interception'. Guess where we last saw that play? That's right, Chargers @ Chiefs.

I have to hope that the Falcons were just that good, and a turnover ridden performance can be learned from in time to win a crucial divisional game. 

Seeing as the Chargers have kindly done whatever I've told them to so far, I'll take them again.

Chargers -1

Titans @ Texans -12

Houston are vying with Atlanta for my best team in the league gold sticker. Seeing off the Broncos showed they could do it against a better quality of opposition. 

The Titans shouldn't be too much of a test at home, but 12 points is a huge margin to need a win by. Despite that, I've got to back my gut and think they will continue to lay down the standard for the league. 

Contract hold-outs slow down lesser backs.

Texans -12

Bengals @ Jaguars +1

The Bengals just took down the Redskins at home in another enthralling game (win or lose RG3ver always excites).

The Jaguars just beat the Colts.

Decide for yourself which of those two things is more impressive.

Bengals -1 

Raiders @ Broncos -6

I'm as shocked as anyone that the Raiders managed a result against Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean they are going to put together back to back wins, least of all at the mile high. 

Broncos -6

Dolphins @ Cardinals -6

The Cardinals are 3-0.

I'll let that sink in for a moment.

Nor has it been an easy ride with wins over Seattle, New England and Philadelphia. The Dolphins meanwhile are battling with a close OT loss to the Jets last week, but still just the one W over Oakland.

I have to go with the undefeated side to notch up another win, and I think they can do it by the spread.

Cardinals -6

Redskins @ Buccaneers -3

Where is the solid Redskins defence we heard so much about? If they could step it up a bit and give RG3 some help the Skins could well be 3-0. As it is, it's a fact of a football that the better your offence plays the more pressure your defence is subjected to. 

I've got to continue with my Griffin love-in and take the points here - surely London Fletcher and co. can hold down Josh Freeman's offence just enough for Robert to work his magic.

Redskins +3 (and to win)

Raise your hands if these refs suck.

Saints @ Packers -7.5

That is a large spread, and a mark of how far NO have fallen this year. Green Bay meanwhile will be hungry to avenge their unjust loss at the hands of some diabolical officiating.

However, the Saints despite being 0-3 have the kind of ability that at any point could rear up and grab a game by the throat, and certainly have the fire power to keep pace with Rodgers and co.

Saints +7.5 (GB to win)

Giants @ Eagles -1 

My mouth is watering for this Sunday late game. Two fierce rivals, both 2-1, both with everything to prove (whether it's the pressure to repeat or just to perform).

I'm not sure whether this game will even be close, let alone who will win it. Giants have been the more impressive team in general this year, so I'll go with them.

Giants +1 (and to win)

Bears @ Cowboys -3.5

Another interesting Monday night match-up. Two teams that are quite similar in my mind, both with huge fan expectations on their shoulders, both with talent at key positions, both with QBs liable to have meltdowns, both with play making defences.

You would think Ware should be able to cause havoc on Chicago's porous o-line, and the Cowboys' CB paring of Claiborne and Carr are one of the most promising in the league. From a match-up perspective I'll take the home side.

Cowboys -3.5