Beating the Bookies: Week 3

Another mixed bag last week, but I improved slightly. Couple of upset calls I'm very pleased with, and a couple of favourites that stalled on spread winning drives. This week I'll call them all for sure...

Week 2:

Spread: 10/16
Outright: 10/16
SBOFTW: 0/1

Season:

Spread: 17/32
Outright: 17/32
SBOFTW: 1/2

Giants -1 @ Panthers

Looking at a common opponent, the Buccs beat the Panthers but fell to a late Giants surge. However, Carolina have the home field advantage and just saw off the Saints. A tough one so I'm going to stick with personal bias.

Panthers +1 (and to win)

Rams +9 @ Bears

Cortland is a bad man and deserves everything he gets. 

Will Chicago ever solve it's O-line issues? I hope so, because Cutler's whining is even more annoying than the Rams spoiling RGIII's fairy tale rookie season.

St Louis did well @ Detroit, so it's not an unfair assumption to say they will hold the own against another NFC North offence that revolves around one big play maker. It's a big spread so I'll take the points.

Having said that, I really really hope Brandon Marshall destroys Finnegan à la Andre. 

Rams +9 (Bears win)

Bills -3 @ Browns

The Bills have been bipolar in their first two, so it's a bit risky as to whether you'll get a good performance this week. You know what's even more risky? Betting on Cleveland.

Bills -3 

Watch Eli scuttle.

Buccs +7 @ Cowboys

Difficult one to call, the Buccs almost had the better of big blue with a similar spread, so I will reservedly go with them again. 

The Cowboys will certainly be wary about trying to kneel out any lead.

Buccs +7 

Jags @ Colts -3

Both having played the Vikings gives us another common opponent insight. I see the Colts going 2-1 and the Jags falling to 0-3 despite having played better than I anticipated prior to the pre-season.

Home field is key in this. -3 isn't too much of a stretch.

Colts -3

Jets -3 @ Dolphins

Both are 1-1 going into this AFC East rivalry match up. Don't let that fool you though, NY are by far the better outfit. 

Reggie had a nice day vs the Raiders, but the Jets' strong run defence should handle him.

8000000-1 that Tebow is caught banging L. Tannehill post game. 

Jets -3 

49ers -7 @ Vikings

I can't think of any reason why the Vikings are in with a shot in this one. The 49ers have been hot so far, and this shouldn't prove a stumbling block. They should just scrape the spread with a top tier run defence holding AP in check.

49ers -7

Chiefs +9 @ Saints

Again, who would have predicted these two would be 0-2? The Chiefs were a lot of experts' surprise package and the Saints are perennial playoff contenders.This is why the NFL is great. 

Both sides have been extremely disappointing thus far and at some point NO are going to kick into gear and show big Rog what's up, but 9 points is a healthy enough margin for me to side with KC.

Chiefs +9

Lions -3 @ Titans

The Titans have not performed well out the gate, and as much as would love to credit last weeks loss to SD being awesome, giving up 3 TDs to Dante Rosario is not the sign of a air tight defence (look for Brandon Pettigrew to have a big day).

Add to this a faltering offence and all signs point to a W for Detriot.  

Lions -3

See Greg to look this fly.

Bengals +4 @ Redskins

I'll confess, I've been stricken hard with RG3ver. It doesn't help that he's my fantasy QB1, or that if it wasn't for Josh Morgan being a massive d-bag I'd likely be 2/2 in my SFBOTWs right now. 

Whatever the case, until this kid starts looking like a rookie I'm not going to bet against him.

Skins -4

Eagles -4 @ Cardinals 

Who would have predicted these two would be 2-0 going into this match up? 

The Eagles have been riding their luck hard for their two wins whereas the Cards have looked far greater than the sum of their parts. I have to go with the more talented squad where gambling is concerned, but I would love to see the Cards go 3-0 and stick it to all the naysayers (of which I was definitely one).

Eagles -4

Falcons @ Chargers -3

Going with head over heart and taking the Falcons in this contest, though Gates and Mathews looking like being back should keep it close. 

Atlanta have played the tougher opposition for their 2 wins, and will probably see off both AFC West title contenders back to back. 

Falcons +3 (and to win)

Texans @ Broncos +1.5

Manning looked rough at Atlanta - real rough. There were some very questionable throws into heavy coverage which resulted in 3 picks, and you can't blame any surgery for that.

People tend to forgot Peyton was throwing a fair few picks prior to getting injured, and that the Broncos team was not doing at all well last year before Tebow rejuvenated them.

The Texans on the other hand are backing up their pre-season hype and are 2-0 (albeit over two sorry teams). I like them to come in and snatch a victory here.

Texans -1.5

Glancing nervously around for witnesses. 

Steelers -4.5 @ Raiders

The Raiders have been just terrible this year. When you are getting pushed around by the Dolphins you know something is up. Even a home advantage won't save Oakland from a drubbing when the steel curtain falls this Sunday. 

On a side note, the Raiders will see something of a kindred spirit in Big Ben - in that he is a dirty rapist criminal thug. 

If only the Dark Knight Rises football scene could actually happen during this game... not only would it solve America's future prison crowding, but Oakland might finally get a decent field laid down.  

Steelers -4.5 SFBOTW!

Patriots +3 @ Ravens

Rematch of the 2011/12 AFC Champ game, minus Billy Cundiff. 

Whenever you see the Patriots being given a handicap you know something is weird in the NFL, and judging by how close games between these two usually are I'll snap the points up.

Patriots +3 (and to win)

Packers -3.5 @ Seahawks

Let's not confuse a win over the Cowboys as being a sign of a championship team. I like the Hawks but can't see past the Pack even with the 12th man and blocks like that.

Packers -3.5

*All odds accurate as of 18/09/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App*