Week 16:
Outright = 4-0
Spread = 0-4
SFBOTW = 0-1
Overall:
Regular Season:
Outright = 166-91 (65%)
Spread = 140-114-3 (55%)
SFBOTW = 8-8-1 (50%)
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (67%)
Ravens @ Broncos -9.5
This is one that Denver should handle fairly comfortably, however despite the way last week turned out I'm still wary of large spreads in the play-offs, especially as we get deeper. Manning should prove too much for the Ravens defence, but I can see the visitors putting enough on the board to keep it competitive and should aim to limit #18's time on the field by channelling a running game (plus the screens and dump offs) that worked so well versus Indy.
Ravens + 9.5 (Broncos to win) SFBOTW! (ish)
Packers @ 49ers -3
I've been swinging back and forth on this game since it was decided, and am still not sure I've made the right call. In situations like this it's normally prudent to take the points, but seeing how one-sided SF's demolition of the Pack was in Lambeau earlier this year, plus the home field advantage, I'll side with the Niners. Green Bay did look scary-good last week versus Minnesota though (and look like they finally have a back capable of contributing evenly to their aggressive offence), so it could well be a nail-biter. I think it comes down to whether Kaepernick can protect the football enough to allow their vaulted defence to play at its best.
49ers -3
Hawks @ Falcons -1
Another tough one to call, as whilst I love the Hawks I think Atlanta are being unjustly disrespected due to their past play-off record (which is all but meaningless here, save to add fuel to their fire). Seattle just played a tough game versus the Skins to seal a win, but had RG3 been healthy it could have been a very different story as they were down 14-0 before he aggravated his knee. The Falcons aerial attack plays into Seattle's secondary loaded hands, but Atlanta's defence is nothing to be trifled with either. Again this game could swing either way, but at home, fresh off the bye and playing the 'nobody believes in us' card for all it's worth I feel the Falcons could finally exorcise their post-season daemons.
Falcons -1
Texans @ Patriots -9.5
Like the Ravens/Broncos match-up this is one that looks to be fairly one-sided, especially when you consider the nature of their late-season game. However 9.5 is a lot of points, and the Texans looked to be as dominant as ever (at least defensively) versus the Bengals. Shutting down Brady is a whole different factor though, and question marks continue to be raised as to whether Schaub is limiting their offence, especially when his main impact Sunday was an ugly pick-6. As such I expect the Pats to win this one without breaking too much of a sweat, but the more intimate knowledge these two have of each other (plus some more hard running from the ever impressive Arian Foster) should keep it just close enough.
Texans +9.5 (Pats to win)
Long Term Prospects!
Superbowl special:
I'll update you on the odds of my outside recommendations:
Baltimore (were 21.00) = 18.00. Almost 20-1 is pretty damn good considering we're in the divisional round, however the catch is they are playing Denver this weekend. I don't see this as a wise investment even at these odds. NO
Washington (19.00) = N/A. Sadly elimination for RG3 and the skins, but they were always a long-shot.
Green Bay (8.50) = 7.50. To still have decent odds after that dominant performance is impressive. Even though I've predicted them to lose to the Niners this week, it's close enough that this is still a semi-decent bet. YES
Minnesota = (41.00). Elimination for the Vikes as predicted. Better luck next year AP.
New prospect:
Seattle = 8.00. Slightly hypocritical again as I know I've predicted them to lose this week, but like the Pack it's tight enough that this is still a good bet. I like them more than Atlanta (also 8.00) as I think they match up better with either GB/SF if they should make it past the Falcons. YES
*All odds accurate as of 07/01/13 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App. LTP via skybet.*
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