Finishing at exactly 55% on the spread means I am profitable. Some very quick maths tells me that if I had put £1 on each game every week on the spread (assuming a 16 games/week, 16 week season, 1.91 odds) then I would have made 81p profit every week, totaling £12.96 for the year!! Of course I didn't bet like that (and yes I did still have a very successful year on the NFL), but it's encouraging to know my methods (or lack of) were accurate enough to turn a profit, albeit a small one.
There is no simple way to judge how much I could have made on outrights at 65%, but only 3/25 of the NFL.com analysts participating in their 'weekly pick-em' game scored higher (Mark Sessler 69%, Nicole Zaloumis 68% and Kareem Copeland 66%).
All in all a very decent year, and I'll continue giving a more detailed breakdown of some interesting tendencies plus my predictions for the play-offs below. My only regret is that my SFBOTW ended up 8-8 (1 point away from a push in the Chi-Det game!).
Week 16:
Outright = 13-3
Spread = 8-8
SFBOTW = 0-1
Animal Corner = 1-0
Overall:
Outright = 166-91 (65%)
Spread = 140-114-3 (55%)
SFBOTW = 8-8-1 (50%)
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (67%)
Season Trends:
Before we move on to the post-season let's peer into how the year went in more detail. All season I've been keeping track of who I bet on and the consequences - not to try and straighten out any personal leanings but simply as it turns up some amusing and intriguing tendencies.
I gave every 'win' +1 and 'loss' -1, meaning that if I was perfect for team X all year they could have +16 (or vice versa). I've also kept track of how teams have fared when I bet for them or bet against them (F/A), and how often I've picked them! This was all done according to the spread at the time.
Top 3 Least Accurate Teams:
The teams I found the least reliable. Hang your heads in shame!
T3. St. Louis Rams (-4)
The Rams were an up and down team in 2012, but I was definitely too down on them through-out the year. At +1F and -4A I should have bet on them far more often, but at a harsh 5-11 ratio I clearly refused to see the light.
T3. Detroit Lions (-4)
The Lions are the antithesis to St. Louis - a team I kept backing when I shouldn't have. At an 8-8 ratio I was measured in my support of them, but with -5F to +1A they did not repay even my guarded trust.
T3. Arizona Cardinals (-4)
A team I fell in love with early on and failed to realise they had turned terrible until it was too late. I backed them solidly at 11-5 but clearly shouldn't have at -3F, -1A. Having said that they were a case of 'wrong time, wrong place' as often when I did bet against them they would pull it out the bag.
2. Seattle Seahawks (-6)
I should have backed the Seahawks more often, although they still had a positive 9-7 ratio of my support. What really hurt is that all 7 times I picked against them they fell short! (+1F, -7A). Clearly I should have had more faith in the Hawks, but part of the problem was their late season transformation from a low-scoring offence to a team capable of blow outs.
1. Carolina Panthers (-8)
You're killing me Carolina! -8 is ugly, especially as they were similarly difficult to pin down for or against at -3F, -5A. I couldn't decide all year on this team at an 8-8 ratio, but it did seem at times that whatever I picked them to do they would do the opposite!
Top 3 Most Accurate Teams:
My gold stars of consistency go to the following...
3. Houston Texans (+7)
Unsurprisingly the Texans wind up in the mix for the most consistent performers. They've been strong all year (until a late dip) with a lot of spread destroying blow outs to their name. I backed them 12-4 with a +5F, +2A total, and I'd do it all again.
2. Buffalo Bills (+8)
I was surprised to see the Bills finish this high as I've had them in my head as an inconsistent team this year. Whilst that may be the case in the league they been very respectable on the spread at +3F, +5A. I clearly realised early on they were not a good team, only backing them 5-11 - but often it's better to back against a team you know is bad rather than for one you think is good.
1. Tennessee Titans (+10)
Hats off to the Titans who've really had a stormer for me at an incredible +10. Even more impressive when they've done it +5F, +5A with a ratio of 7-9. The polar opposite of the Panthers, I've had my finger on the pulse of the music city all year and I just wish they were in the post-season so I could continue dancing to their winning beat.
Top 3 Most Disregarded Teams:
Those I've backed against the most this season, justified?
T3. Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings (4-12)
A vote of no confidence for these 3, somewhat unjustified (you would think) in the case of the Boys and Vikings?
Cowboys: 0F, +4A = +4. I think the line speaks for itself. No regrets being so harsh on Dallas.
Chiefs: -2F, +4A = +2. Wish I had picked against them more often!
Vikings: +2F, -2A = 0. Maybe I was a little down on the Vikings. Duly noted.
2. New York Jets (3-13)
It's probably not surprisingly to see the Jets in this list, who's poor season has astonishingly been fairly average when you consider all the injuries, upheavals and QB controversy surrounding them. Ryan rightly keeps his job, but at 0F, +3A I clearly wasn't being overly critical in my estimations.
1. Miami Dolphins (1-15)
Shocked to see the Dolphins as my least favoured team? I was a little as well, and to be honest to have only picked them once is quite poor on my part. I should definitely have shown them a little more faith at times as they finished +1F, 0A, but to still be positive with support (or lack of) so one sided shows they were still pretty dire most of the season.
Top 3 BFFs:
Teams I couldn't help myself backing all year, whether it was based on form or band-wagoning I'll let you decide.
3. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
Not surprising to see a dominant team like the Falcons backed this often, as despite their winning season they've rarely been favoured with a large spread. Finishing at +3F, 0A is fairly decent, but I could have been more prudent in my support.
2. Washington Redskins (14-2)
I'm sure some of you expected to see the Skins as #1 in this category, and it was certainly close. Despite my blind love for RG3, it's been a crush that has ultimately paid off - finishing at a solid +6F, 0A, (plus a 7 game winning streak). Roll on into the playoffs!
1. Indianapolis Colts (15-1)
I didn't expect the Colts to end up as my favourite team to back this season, and with a very average record at +3F, 0A they probably shouldn't have been. Still, it's hard to argue with a positive result, and when they've had such a remarkable winning season it's not undeserved.
Right, without further ado on to the playoffs!
Wildcard Predictions:
Bengals @ Houston -4.5
These should all be great games, but this is one of the more intriguing of the bunch. A team definitely coming into form opposed to one on a 2 game slide against underdogs. I have to take the points here.
Bengals +4.5 (Texans to win)
Vikings @ Packers -9.5
I'm scratching my head as to why the Pack deserve to be almost 10 point favourites against a team that just beat them. I think GB will win but I can't turn down a spread that heady.
Vikings +9.5 (Packers to win) SFBOTW!
Tough to call this one so I'm going to err with the spread. The Colts just beat the Texans so should be confident they can spring an upset.
Colts +6.5 (Ravens to win)
Seahawks @ Redskins +2.5
My favourite match-up of the week but it's a shame one of these two has to go home empty handed as they are the two most entertaining teams in the league right now. This could swing either way, and if it was in Seattle I'd have no qualms taking them up to -6.5, but in Washington I don't feel I can turn down points.
Redskins +2.5 (Seahawks to win)
Long Term Prospects!
Superbowl special:
I'll update you on the odds of my outside recommendations:
Baltimore (were 21.00) = 21.00. No change for Baltimore so I wouldn't advice against a flutter on the Ravens at these odds, who should beat the Colts this weekend. MAYBE.
Chicago (61.00) = N/A. Elimination for Chicago and I hope you took my advice last week and avoided betting.
Washington (26.00) = 19.00. The Skins' odds continue to fall, and it's probably not worth it at this stage with a tough game against Seattle looming. NO.
Green Bay (6.50) = 8.50. The Packers odds rise again to 8.5, and I definitely think it's worth sticking something on them. Don't let last week's loss to the Vikings fool you - they are still not a team to be trifled with. YES.
Minnesota = (81.00) = 41.00. Even though the odds are still good I really wouldn't recommend more than a couple of quid on the Vikings. YES (Small).
*Odds accurate as of 2/01/13 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App. LTP odds via skybet.*
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