Beating the Bookies: Week 17

An identical (but solid) week of results to last time means I'm in a strong position going into the final week of the regular season. It's disappointing for the year's football to be almost over for many teams (and it really has flown by) but I'm excited for the post-season, which looks set to be a great one with so many strong teams competing. Most of the divisions are already locked up, but with a week of pure divisional games it should still be a fantastic close to a memorable regular season.

Week 16:

Outright = 11-5
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 153-88
Spread = 132-106-3 
SFBOTW = 8-7-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-2-1



Falcons @ Buccaneers +3.5
With nothing to gain from this match win or lose, I expect Atlanta to rest their stars early on leading to a Buccs win.

Buccs +3.5 (and to win)

Jets @ Bills -3.5
McElroy did not have an ideal start against the Chargers suffering 11 sacks, and I can't see him getting a much calmer ride in Buffalo. The Jets beat them very convincingly earlier in the season, but a lot has changed since then.

Bills -3.5

Ravens @ Bengals -2.5
Tough one to call as both looked very good last Sunday, and the NFC North has already been decided. Whilst Baltimore will have their foot off the gas a little I still like the points here.

Ravens +2.5 (Bengals win)

Bears @ Lions +3
Megatron has already broken Rice's receiving record so the Lions really have nothing to play for, whereas Chicago will be hungry to secure a post-season berth. Bears all day.

Bears -3 SFBTOW! (Apologies for the repeat picking against Detroit, but they are making it easy).



Texans @ Colts +7
Very interesting one with the Texans suffering a surprise loss to the Vikings last week. I still like them to win but 7 points is too much of a stretch against Indy, who have been strong at home all year.

Colts +7 (Texans win)

Panthers @ Saints  -5
Tough one as both have been playing fairly well lately, I like the Saints to squeeze it at home though, even at a solid spread.

Saints -5

Eagles @ Giants -7.5

The Giants desperately need a win, but after burning me the last two weeks I'm reluctant to back them again. I'll give them a vote of no confidence and hand over to the fat boys... or at least I would if they weren't on holiday. Toothless can step up to the plate:

Let's just say she was NOT the model professional Waffle is when it comes to choosing a winner promptly and decisively... but nevertheless I'm taking that scuttle as a well thought out pick for NY. 

Giants -7.5

Browns @ Steelers -10.5
With both teams resting players the Steelers should take care of business, but 10.5 is too much for me to be comfortable with.

Browns +10.5 (Steelers win)

Jaguars @ Titans -4
The Titans are surprisingly my most reliable team this year (more on this next week), and I feel fairly secure in picking them here.

Titans -4 

Packers @ Vikings +3.5
Tough one as the Vikings pulled the upset over the Texans, and AP will be rushing hard for the record books with a huge game needed. However Green Bay just blew out Tennessee so I think they can grab a close win here.

Packers -3.5

Dolphins @ Patriots -10

The Pats have been sub-par the last couple of weeks, but should bounce back here to blow Miami out and lift their spirits just before the start of the post-season.

Pats 10

Chiefs @ Broncos -16

As loath as I am to ever bet on the Chiefs, 16 points is too much for me to comfortably take. I'll be staying well against from this one.

Chiefs +16 (Broncos to win)

Cardinals @ 49ers -16.5
Another huge margin, and as much as the Niners need to win to stay top of the West I can see the Cardinal's elite defence keeping them closer than this mammoth spread (even if their O will be held to next to nothing once more). 

Cards +16.5 (49ers win)

Rams @ Seahawks -10
10 points is a lot, but when you've been putting up the kind of numbers Seattle have I fancy them as more than capable of finishing the season very strongly, especially at home against a divisional opponent.

Seahawks -10

Raiders @ Chargers -10
Don't be surprised to see a big Chargers win here, with Oakland starting Terrelle Pryor. I expect another confident albeit meaningless performance for Turner's last game in charge.

Chargers -10

Cowboys @ Redskins -3
This should be a fantastic game to watch, and whilst I think the bookies have the spread spot on at 3 points I'm not going to turn my back on RG3 and the Skins now. All in baby.

Redskins -3 


Long term prospects!

Superbowl special:

I'll update you on the odds of my outside recommendations:  

Baltimore (were 29.00) = 21.00. That was a much needed win over the Giants, but this is not a team worth betting on at this price. NO.
Chicago (81.00) = 67.00. With a win their odds have fallen, so hopefully any Bears fans chose last week to back their team. I wouldn't recommend it now even at this price with the NFC heating up the way it is, NO. 
Washington (26.00) = Still 26.00. I'd probably avoid betting much on the Skins now. Yes they'll very likely make the playoffs, but aren't likely to go far. Sticking at 26.00 after another win is attractive for an entertaining couple of quid though. YES (small).  
Green Bay (8.50) = 6.50. Last week was definitely the time to bet on the Packers, and the odds will likely keep decreasing from here on in. I would never bet on a SB winner at less than 7.00 as it's such a crap-shoot. NO. 


New prospect - I wanted to put Seattle here but at just 10.00 it is a terrible bet, so instead I'll go with a rank outsider who have a decent chance at making a run:

Minnesota = 81.00. They have their odds cut out at getting far in the post-season (if they even make it), but with AP the beast he is they have a chance to beat anybody, as shown by their victory over Houston. YES (Small).

Good luck.


*Lines accurate as of 28/12/12 via Sportacular. LTP odds from skybet.*