Beating the Bookies: Week 16

A solid week of predicting amongst a week of blow outs in the NFL. It's almost refreshing after all the upsets and narrow results to see teams flexing their muscles on Statement Sunday, and with the play-offs a mere fortnight away it should be an exciting end to the 2012 season. Unfortunately though sad news as Waffle slips up and suffers his first loss. Let's hope he can recover in time (and maybe listen to some brotherly advice) for this penultimate week of the regular season.

Week 15:

Outright = 11-5
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 142-83
Spread = 122-100-3 
SFBOTW = 7-7-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-1-1


Falcons @ Lions +4
After Atlanta's demolition of the Giants and the Lions' lop-sided loss to Arizona, this one is something of a no-brainer.

Falcons -4 SFBOTW!

Raiders @ Panthers -9.5
Carolina looked hot versus San Diego, and the Raiders beat the Chiefs on 5 Janikowski field goals... The spread however is very harsh so I'll err on the side of caution and take the points.

Raiders +9.5 (Panthers to win)

Another great off-season release from SD 

Saints @ Cowboys -1
The Cowboys squeeze by the Steelers, and with everything on the line for them in a deadlocked NFC East I'll stick with Romo and co.

Cowboys -1 

Chargers @ Jets -1
Tricky one as both looked extremely sub-par last weekend. However San Diego's problems are more consistency based, whereas the Jets are just suffering from an obscene lack of talent. With that in mind I'll roll with San Diego to grab a solid victory.

Chargers +1 (and to win)

Titans @ Packers -13
The Titans looked pretty rough despite a win over the rougher Jets, so I'll take the Pack despite a very large margin. 

Packers -13

Vikings @ Texans -9.5
Tough one as the Texans should win, but the Vikings comfortably saw off the Rams to remain in play-off contention. With that in mind (not to mention AP will be running hard for the rushing record) I'll take the points. 

Vikings +9.5 (Texans to win)

Patriots @ Jaguars +14
An upset for the Patriots at home, but despite a big spread I'll back Belichick to bounce back with a ruthless win as he invariably does following a bad loss. 

Patriots -14 

Colts @ Chiefs +6.5
Luck and the Colts lose to the Texans and will have to content themselves with a (still impressive) wild card berth. They should see off the stagnant Chiefs by at least a score.

Colts -6.5

Bills @ Dolphins -4
Buffalo just got walloped by the Seahawks, but I can't see them doing an Arizona and bouncing back from their 50-burger with a win over Miami. 

Dolphins -4 

Redskins @ Eagles +4.5
RG3 will be back for this one, and with an NFC East title just 2 wins away they won't take their foot off the gas now.

Redskins -4.5

Bengals @ Steelers -4
Pivotal AFC North show-down that will decide the remaining 2nd wildcard slot. I like the Bengals to win this one, finally coming out of the Steelers' shadow in the division's hierarchy. 

Bengals +4 (and to win)

Rams @ Buccs -3
With both teams coming off tough losses this could go either way, but I'll hesitantly back Tampa to snag a narrow win at home.

Buccs -3

Browns @ Broncos -13
Interesting one, with the Broncos comfortably seeing off the Ravens and the Browns falling to Cousins and the Skins. At home, they should repeat versus a weaker AFC North outfit.

Broncos -13

Giants @ Ravens +1
Big game here, and one both teams will be desperate not to lose. I think the Giants will be a touch more desperate however, and at a marginal spread I like them to win and maintain pace in the East.

Giants -1 

Bears @ Cardinals +5.5
Despite Arizona just grabbing a nice win versus Detroit, I like Chicago to come in and pump the brakes on their late season slide in a confident victory.

Bears -5.5

49ers @ Seahawks Pick 'em
Very tough one to call, with both coming off huge wins and still all to play for in the NFC West. With that in mind I'll let Waffle and Ralph take the next step up to prime-time: 

Again we have a split decision! If this keeps happening I might have to divide their segment, but for now we'll go with the first choice, that being Waffle and the visiting Niners, who control their own destiny for the NFC West crown. This should be a fantastic game, and as unpredictable as any I've seen this season. 

49ers


Long term prospects!

Superbowl special:

Following on from last weeks recommendations, I'll update you on the odds: 
Baltimore (were 23.00) = Risen to 29.00 Whilst they've looked very shoddy, they are garunteed play-off football at this point. I advised waiting last week, but their game with the Giants could go either way so now is the time to strike if you are going to. MAYBE.
Chicago (41.00) = Doubled to 81.00! - Their chances of even making the playoffs are looking rocky... But definitely worth £1 at this price! YES (Small).
Washington (34.00) = Dropped to 26.00 - Looking as likely as any of the NFC East to make it in, and definitely have the potential to go on a run. I wouldn't bet on them at this low price though. NO.

Introducing a new prospect:

Green Bay = 8.50 The odds are far from great but they are definitely worth putting a medium sized stake on at 8.50, as will almost certainly be a contender to at least make the big game. YES.

Good luck.


*Lines accurate as of 18/12/12 via Sportacular. LTP odds from skybet.*