Beating the Bookies: Week 1

We're unveiling a new feature on Football, Football, Football today. Beating the Bookies is going to see Tommy Gibbs give us his NFL betting tips each week. Enough from me, over to Tommy. - Greg


What follows are my predictions for every week 1 game of the 2012 NFL season, together with the well thought out and expertly informed reasoning behind my decisions. Every week I will attempt to correctly guess who wins and who loses, out right and according to the spread.

If you're unfamiliar with how spread betting works, it is essentially a handicap to even the odds in otherwise one sided games.

Week 1 is an unpredictable time in the NFL, every year there are teams that come out of nowhere to shock the league with a 5-0 start, likewise there are consistent power houses who stumble seemingly randomly and lose to a massive underdog. Trust these tips though and you’ll almost probably sometimes win more than you lose.

Cowboys +3.5 @ Giants

The big opener and the day we’ve all been waiting for. Whilst I’m not hot on Eli ‘Elite’ Manning to lead the reigning champs to another divisional title and certainly not a SB, I do see Big Blue taking down their age old rivals in the primetime spotlight (but led by their defence not baby bro’s arm).

Giants -3.5

Colts +10 @ Bears 

Andrew Luck’s debut versus a monstrous (or should that be beastly?) QB/WR partnership in Cutler and Marshall that looks set to terrorise defences all season. However this can only happen if the Bears' shaky O-line can keep Cutler upright long enough, and whilst Forte and Bush are nice weapons to ease that pressure off – I can see the Colts’ veteran pass rushers keeping them in the game enough for Luck to shine on his first outing, even in a tough location.

Colts +10 (Bears to win).

Eagles -9 @ Browns

With Vick already looking more banged up than Ochocinco’s wife, it could be a long season for Eagles fans as they try to live up to the ‘Dream Team’ hype that they sold this time 12 months ago.
Openers don’t come much easier than this however, and the Browns with a less than 100% Richardson, recovering from (albeit fairly minor) knee surgery, don’t look like putting up much against Philly’s all-star defence.

Eagles -9



Rams +9 @ Lions

A team with a lot to prove travelling to play one that is desperate to take the next step this year and mount a serious playoff run. With a lack of any real running game the Lions should air it out and air it out often in this encounter, and with a stellar target like Megatron to go to Stafford should lead the Lions to a comfortable victory. It’s a big spread but I bank on them just managing it.

Lions -9

Dolphins +9 @ Texans

The stars of Hard Knocks face up against the much lauded Texans with another large spread to their name.
A healthy Schaub, dangerous one-two punch of Foster and Tate, not to mention a stout defence mean the Texans should have enough to see off Tannehill and Miami. A lack of offensive weapons on the part of the visitors will put them at a big disadvantage, and I can’t see Reggie Bush carrying the team on his back in this one.

Texans -9

Falcons -1 @ Chiefs

Two fairly under-rated teams here, and with a negligible spread it really is a case of just picking a winner. Arrowhead is a tough place to go and win, but I feel like Matt Ryan will be eager to certify the predictions of the Falcon’s aerial prowess this year. This really could go either way though.

Falcons -1

Jaguars +4.5 @ Vikings

If you’d asked me to call this game a couple of weeks ago I would have put my non-existent house on the Vikings, but I am begrudgingly being won over by how much Gabbert seems to have matured over the course of the off-season. He’s looking like he could be growing into a solid QB1 for the Jags, and with new weapons in first round pick Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson coming off an impressive season with the Cowboys, even potentially lacking Mojo they could do some damage.
Meanwhile the Vikings will be easing Adrian Peterson in at the shallow end, and a good defence doesn’t out weigh a comfortable 4 ½ point margin for me.

Jags +4.5 (And to win)

Redskins +9.5 @ Saints

I’ve been defending the Saints’ chances this season post Bounty-gate to anyone who will listen, but with the second biggest spread of the week I have to go with RG3 to lead the Skins to a close run contest. Washington had a good defence last year, and whilst they are sure to give up points to Brees’ deadly offence, I bank on the 2nd overall pick to keep the Redskins just close enough.

Skins +9.5 (Saints to win)

Bills +3.0 @ Jets

The season hasn’t even begun yet and already Gang Green are on the NY media’s rack. The Bills were a surprise team for the first half of last year before losing Fred Jackson to a broken leg, and in my mind there’s no way the Jets’ have enough offensive weapons to keep pace with an aggressive Bills attack.
On the other side of the ball Mario Williams and co. should have a field day against a dicey Jets O-line. Whilst the Jets defence will bounce back from a statistically average previous season (I love the addition of hard-hitting safety Landry), it won’t be enough to make Sanchez’s defence of his starting job a pleasant start.

Bills +3.0 (And to win)

Patriots -6.5 @ Titans

Every year there’s a spread that I’m eyeing up from the moment the lines are released. Last year it was the Pats -6.5 @ Miami, this year it is New England again that provided me with my ‘SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY’ moment. Despite my initial reaction, though, there are a couple of games that could rival this for my sure fire bet of the week (SFBOTW). Brady did it for me (just) last year, and I have no doubt that they will get off to a strong start against a Locker led Titans team, even if CJ2K is looking like getting back to his old ways.

Pats -6.5

Seahawks +1 @ Cardinals

There’s a lot to like in the Seahawks this year, not least that they have 3 QBs who would probably start over the distinctly average Kolb/Skelton combo. Russell Wilson has looked electric this pre-season, and could steal the starting spot from under recent signing Flynn’s nose.
Add to this a solid running game, under rated defence and you have the makings of a team that could challenge the Niners for the NFC West crown this year. Having said that, without the backing of the 12th man this could be a tight affair, but one in which the Hawks ultimately prevail. This is a contender for SFBOTW.

Seahawks +1 (and to win)


49ers +6 @ Packers

Speaking of the 49ers, they have a nice casual start to defending their impressive 2011 campaign against only the Packers, led by ‘the best player in the NFL’.
I’ve seen a lot of reports on how the 49ers were lucky last year, how teams almost always decline after a breakout year, and how they were lucky to recover so many fumbles. Whilst I can see the logic in these arguments, they are still for me one of the most complete teams in the NFL.
Will Alex Smith turn the ball over more this year throwing it to his new targets? Almost certainly. Will they still win the West regardless? Probably. Will they beat GB in week 1? Probably not. Rodgers at Lambeau makes for one of the toughest away trips in the league (minus the odd post season blip), and the 49ers will need all their turnover ‘luck’ to have a hope. Don’t believe the ‘worst defence in the league’ stat either – GB had a ton of takeaways and gave up soft yards to teams chasing big leads last season.

Packers -6


Panthers - 2.5 @ Buccaneers

Very interesting match up here. An explosive Panthers team led by wonder boy Cam Newton against a Bucs team that has brought in everything but the kitchen sink in an effort to guarantee a more successful season.
New coaching and fresh talent will provide Tampa a lease of life this year, but I back Cam to convert some more of his close high scoring games into all important wins, and this is could be a crucial one in a tight division.

Panthers - 2.5

Steelers - 1 @ Broncos

A new season, and now double the amount of Manning-face again (thank God). How will he fare in his first start in over a year? I’ve just been told from a very unreliable source that at the time of writing, he is yet to complete a pass over 20 yards in his two pre-season games, which doesn’t bode well until you remember that pre-season is basically meaningless.
The much hyped Bronco’s defence on the other hand faces a healthy Big Ben, a lack-luster running game but potentially two very dangerous receivers (should a certain someone stop holding out for the big $$$).
This really comes down to how well Manning has managed to shake off the rust, and I’m going to err on the side of caution and the Steelers’ long harboured revenge for Tebow time in the playoffs.

Steelers -1

Bengals +5.5 @ Ravens

Can Andy ‘Red Rocket’ Dalton avoid the sophomore slump and lead the Bengals to back to back playoff appearances? It seems unlikely when you think about the Bengals of the past few years, but perhaps this could be the season in which their fortunes change. AJ Green certainly looks the real deal, and if their defence holds up then I won’t be betting against them much this year.
The Ravens on the other hand have lost their true defensive star in Suggs, and it’s only a matter of time before Lewis’ and Reed’s advancing years catch up to them. Whilst Baltimore are by no means easy pickings, I can see the Bengals pushing them hard in a game decided by a late field goal / overtime.

Bengals +5.5 (Ravens win)

Chargers -1.5 @ Raiders
***** SFBOTW! *****

Saving the best till last, this is the game I feel most confident in calling for opening week. Now I will admit to some bias as a long suffering Bolts fan, but I really can’t see this game going any other way than a Chargers’ victory.
Rivers had a tough year last season, but with the addition of Meacham and Royal to replace the loss of V-Jax, a fully healthy and rejuvenated (touch wood) Gates, plus a defence that should benefit from the new blood that has been drafted (Melvin Ingram will be a stud), there is a lot to like about this SD team in a division that is wide open for someone to claim it. Not having Mathews healthy will take the edge off in week 1, but veteran Ronnie Brown will step up.
Oakland, on the other hand, have one of the best RBs in the league in D-Mac, but also one of the most injury prone. Whilst this shouldn’t be a big issue in week 1, it is a concern down the stretch for Raiders fans (and fantasy owners).
I fully expect this to be a 40-0 Raiders blow out now I’ve said all that, but what the hell, when have the Chargers ever failed to live up to some hype, right?

Chargers -1.5

And there you have it, everything you need to know about making yourself a very rich punter in week 1, stay tuned for more updates on the gambling side of the NFL.

As always I accept full credit for any money made and zero blame when you waste your entire savings on what can’t possibly lose.

*All spreads accurate as of 25/08/2012 taken from Yahoo’s ‘Sportacular’ App*

Tottenham, Washington and Word Re-appropriation

The Clarke Carlisle-led documentary that aired on BBC Three tonight posed the question Is Football Racist?, and in attempting to answer this question it looked at areas of the game where racism is perhaps not so obvious. Throughout the programme Carlisle was presented with theories of sub-conscious, covert, passive racism - to use just three of the descriptions used - and in doing so touched on the subject of ethnic stereotypes used in judging athletes (a topic I touched on in a previous post about Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III and their relative evaluations).  However, the most fascinating part of the documentary for me was the debate about the use of the word "yid" by fans of Tottenham Hotspur - a topic that I have much familiarity with - as it reminded me of the ongoing debate surrounding the name of the NFL's Washington Redskins.

There are differences, of course. Tottenham have never officially endorsed the use of the Y-word, unlike the name Redskins which is the key theme of Washington's branding and identity. Concurrent with that is the fact that Tottenham's use of the term came as an attempt of re-appropriating what was widely known to be a racial slur, constantly aimed at the club's supporters due to the team's large Jewish following. The idea of re-appropriating a new, positive meaning or image for the word is a defence often used by those in support of Washington's continued use of their name. The problem with this, as David Baddiel, a prominent Jewish comedian, points out in the documentary, is that in both cases the term is being used by demographics in which the appropriate group is in the minority. It's all well and good claiming to be "taking the word back", but what gives a non-Jewish Tottenham fan or a non-Native American Redskins fan the right to do so? It is easy to claim solidarity when it suits, but I'm sure that many of these fans wouldn't align themselves with Jewish or Native Americans on other issues in different walks of life. Furthermore, many would point to the prevalence of the N-word in hip-hop culture as an example of re-appropriation. This is forgetting that some of the most prominent African Americans comedians, with huge cultural impact, in Richard Pryor and Chris Rock have both publicly denounced its use in the past, amongst others. The simple truth is that by keeping the word alive and in people's minds, you are never going to rid it of its negative connotations.

Tottenham have taken steps to try and eradicate the use of the term, through short films and notices in the match-day programme, and seem to believe that if you educate the fans enough on the true nature of the term that it will eventually be dropped. However, Washington appear unwilling to negotiate on their use of their nickname. This is particularly disappointing as there are several instances throughout American sport where institutions have been able to be somewhat progressive on this issue without altering the team's identity: Miami (Ohio) University changed their athletic teams' nickname from Redskins to RedHawks, as well as other examples where universities have agreements and/or permission from the tribes they take their name from, which is the case with the Florida State Seminoles, the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Central Michigan Chippewas, among others. It will never be easy to force through cultural change, but in standing out on an issue and being progressive the process can leap forward several steps.

I Adore Mi Armour

Tottenham unveiled their new kits for the forthcoming season today, and they can be seen below.

With apologies to Hannover 96, this marks the first instance of Under Armour as the kit provider for a major football team, a new foray into a potentially lucrative market for the American company. For Tottenham, the opportunity to become the flagship team of one of the fastest growing sports apparel companies in the world was not one to be scoffed at.

It is encouraging for the club to see the way in which Under Armour utilised many of the techniques par for the course in American sports in their build-up and release of the kit, from the myriad of social networks on which the unveiling could be accessed and followed to the extravagant kick-off event being held at White Hart Lane on Saturday - more details of which can be found here. I don't remember a kit unveiling with such pomp and circumstance in English football before, let alone at Tottenham. Under Armour CEO and President Kevin Plank was at today's unveiling, a hint that Spurs are not about to become a side interest for the company, they mean business. 


I have held the belief for a long time that English sport lags behind its American counterpart in terms of marketing and fan interaction, this move represents a small but significant move in the right direction. Again, Plank's presence alludes to a closer relationship than is usually seen between club and supplier, and hopefully this will be the first in a number of moves rolled out over the season.

As for the kits themselves? The full picture set can be seen here. Overall a good look. Distinctive without being busy. I personally don't care for the collar on the home shirt, feels a bit too close to last season's effort - a v-neck like on the away shirt would have improved the look. In fact I have no complaints about the away shirt at all. The away goalkeeper's kit is a huge improvement on the previous designs under Puma, a clean, retro feel that would go great with Hugo Lloris' haircut for a 60's feel, let's hope. I would have thought it would go better with the home kit, but the home goalkeeper's shirt is not too shabby either. As I said earlier, distinctive from previous shirts and other manufacturer's designs across the league, but without sacrificing a clean look.

A New Era

Andre Villas-Boas has been charge barely 36 hours and yet already the press are talking him down. About how much he has to prove after indisputably failing at Chelsea, that he has much to learn and that his appointment by Tottenham is a gamble. However, Phil McNulty of BBC Sport gave the game away somewhat when, in his article, he spoke about how Villas-Boas alienated the press while he was at Chelsea. My favourite quote in particular is this line, after a Chelsea Champions League victory:

"It is unfortunate for you guys in the media because you have to report on a brilliant win for Chelsea and we qualify first in the group. It is difficult for everybody and today this is difficult for you."

Does that not sound like something Jose Mourinho would have uttered? Followed by newspapers eating it up and pining about how much they miss "The Special One".

The biggest adjustment Spurs fans are going to have to make over the coming year is not one of playing style, or personnel, but of perception. Harry Redknapp, the tabloids' golden boy, has gone - and who is Daniel Levy to sack him? Scour the many articles after his departure and you'll see the same refrain, essentially that two fourth place finishes were somehow not good enough. Any spurs fan familiar with the situation will correct you on that. Redknapp made his position at the club untenable through his inability to keep quiet.

The media circus surrounding the England job was followed by despair when the "People's Choice" was overlooked for someone with, to put it bluntly, a more accomplished background. The fact is, Tottenham threw away what should have been their best season since the establishment of the Premier League twenty years ago. Third in the league in January with an apparently insurmountable lead over their closest rivals in 4th. England job or not, what followed was a catastrophic run of results that would put many a man on the hot seat. In fact, at the very same time, Liverpool were undergoing a similarly horrendous period, and they ended up sacking club legend Kenny Dalglish. If it's not good enough for "King Kenny", then why should Redknapp, a man whose loyalty has been proved again and again to be to himself, be spared?

All this was before his ill-timed comments about his contract. Unhappy at how slowly negotiations were progressing, Redknapp did what Redknapp does best and moaned to his mates in the media (probably out of a car window) while the chairman was on leave after the death of his mother. Levy and Redknapp were already on thin ice, this was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Already, in the few hours that Villas-Boas has been in charge, you can feel the tone towards Tottenham beginning to change. Media darlings last season, with a quote-a-minute manager, now arguably looking more stable, but with a young, self-confident manager who does not care much for how the British media go about their business. 

Already you can feel it, reading between the lines, and I fear it is a mood that will be prevalent throughout the coming campaign. I worry what effect this may have on the supporters who take tabloid stories as gospel, who will believe what they are told and will become alarmed at the first sign of a "crisis". All I ask of them is that you follow these instructions:

That's Why They Don't Play Games On Paper

As commentator's like to say when a side gets a goal back, the Arsenal result tonight means it's "game on" once more.

These are the facts - Arsenal sit five points ahead of Tottenham, having played an extra game. Arsenal's remaining games are Chelsea (H), Stoke (A), Norwich (H) and West Brom (A). Spurs have got QPR (A), Blackburn (H), Bolton (A), Aston Villa (A) and Fulham (H). Tonight's result proved once again that there's no such thing as a foregone conclusion in the Premier League, but given the relative strengths of the two run-ins, at this point it certainly seems like it's all to play for, once again. 

The loss for Arsenal could be the perfect motivation for this Spurs side after Sunday's crushing defeat against Chelsea. The prevailing feeling amongst the fans  travelling home from Wembley was "where do we go from here", with our cup hopes dashed and Arsenal's lead seemingly insurmountable. This has thrown the door wide open, and it was only two years ago that after a disappointing FA Cup semi-final loss to Portsmouth, Spurs went on to secure fourth, finding a sense of urgency and purpose to beat Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City. Could we be about to see them do the same now, in the race for third and the top position of the London clubs?

Amongst the unpredictability of the Premier League season, one thing is for sure: this just got interesting.

Time To Panic?

"If I'd offered you the chance to be in 4th place going into an FA Cup semi-final in August, you'd have jumped at the chance."

That phrase, or thereabouts, has been uttered many times over the last month or so, as Tottenham's shot at third place and seemingly tight grip on a place in next season's Champions League have slipped away from them. The reality is a club's ambitions are fluid, and for a team that were seen to be genuine title contenders in January, to scrape into the competition in fourth place should be seen as something of a failure given the position the club were in. Particularly as it would almost certainly mean finishing below Arsenal once again, a fact that Spurs fans are going to be reminded of again and again over the coming months.

I've personally remained optimistic over the last month, citing excuses for staying upbeat ranging from the fixture list (anyone would struggle playing at Anfield, the Emirates, Goodison Park, Stamford Bridge and facing United at home in the space of six games), to the fact we were due some kind of blip, or simply pointing on what looked like a fairly comfortable last eight games.

The results, and more importantly the performances over the weekend have changed much of that. Spurs look like a team that are stuck. Results against Bolton in the cup and Swansea seemed to point to a return to form, but maybe they were the anomalies. The supposedly favourable run of fixtures now looks trickier. Play like the team did against Norwich and suddenly the prospect of an away game at Q.P.R. and a resurgent Fulham side at home no longer look like foregone conclusions.

The belief, the motivation seems lost, and the responsibility for that rests with the manager. Redknapp's never been known as the most tactically astute, and in the recent run of games he's been out-thought tactically again and again. When he arrived at the club, the most important thing he did was have players in their preferred positions, a simple enough task but one that was seemingly overlooked under Ramos. This Tottenham team continually look disjointed and unbalanced, with the loss of Aaron Lennon to injury shunting either Luka Modric, Rafael van der Vaart or Niko Krancjar out to the right, where none of them prefer to play, and where they are subsequently marginalised.

With the way the team are playing at the moment, you would not surprised to see them drop out the Champions League places and get knocked out of the cup, and where would that leave them? If, as looks likely, Redknapp then takes the vacant England role then Spurs could be looking at something of an end of an era, particularly as the likes of Modric and Bale may leave in search of Champions League football. Could it really be back to square one?

Luck, Griffin and Stereotypes

Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are two fantastic collegiate quarterbacks and are widely expected to be the top two picks in this year's NFL draft. Despite their stature and the exposure that comes with it, the same myths are repeated over and over about the differences in these two players' games. Ask most people with a passing knowledge of these players and they would tell you that one is more of an athlete, the other more cerebral and more accurate, and there's no prizes for guessing which label is attached to which quarterback when you know that Luck is Caucasian and Griffin is African American.

My main problem with this is not that these descriptions are wrong - Luck has a great football mind, as you'd expect from the son of an NFL quarterback and Griffin is a fantastic athlete, having won medals at a national level in hurdles while at Baylor. My problem is that these attributes are assumed to not be there in the other quarterback, an assumption that is often even turned into a flaw by so-called analysts.

I will deal first of all with the assumptions levelled at Robert Griffin. Journalists and talking heads are quick to point out his speed and his ability to throw the deep ball, certainly traits that adhere well to the "athletic" stereotype, but even on a show as prominent as ESPN's Pardon the Interruption you see Tony Kornheiser, who was in the Monday Night Football booth as recently as 2008, say that Griffin's weakness is his accuracy. One of the most startling statistics of the early part of this year's college football season was Griffin's impressive ratio (through his first three games) of 13 touchdowns to 12 incompletions. That's incompletions, not interceptions. The man had more passes find the opponents end zone than he did fall incomplete, despite all the variables that contribute to an incomplete pass. Yet talking heads of some stature continue to doubt his accuracy. That ridiculous streak of course came to an end, but Griffin still finished the season with a completion percentage of 72.4, a respectable mark that actually bests (albeit not by much) the score of the supposedly more accurate Luck at 71.3%.

People are quick to point to the spread-based offence that Baylor ran in order to suggest these figures are inflated somewhat by a more passer-friendly scheme than the pro-style ran by Luck at Stanford. However, Luck actually attempted almost the same number of passes as Griffin, two more in fact. Luck threw 404 times, Griffin 402. Given Griffin's reputation for throwing a deep pass as well, a significantly riskier throw, the fact that they threw for roughly the same amount of passes and completed those passes at roughly the same rate, then to state that one quarterback is more accurate than the other can be seen to be making quite a leap of faith. Unless these pundits are weighing in on a hunch taken from some kind of stereotype.

Furthermore, I would argue that Luck's athleticism is downplayed because of the colour of his skin as well. At this year's NFL Scouting Combine, while Griffin did indeed run one of the fastest 40 yard dash times of a quarterback ever seen at the event - between 4.38 and 4.41 seconds depending on what source you find - Luck posted a time that, any other year, would have had jaws dropping. Luck ran the distance in 4.59 seconds, the same time as Cam Newton did the year before. Newton was drafted first overall with his athleticism seen as his main selling point, and in fact set a new record for total touchdowns in a season by a rookie, mostly due to his 14 rushing touchdowns, the most by any quarterback in a single season in the history of the NFL. Though Luck does seem to prefer to throw from the pocket, he actually posted a 3.2 yards per carry mark over the season at Stanford, a number not as astronomically different as some would have you believe from Griffin's own mark of 3.9. Not to mention Luck did this.

Once more, I am not writing this to make the case that Luck is inaccurate, or Griffin not athletic, they are both supremely talented players, it just galls me that, given the evidence outlined above, people are overlooking just how talented these players are in order to try and shoehorn them into predetermined boxes that just don't fit. Boxes that are scarily similar to the stereotypes attached to quarterbacks of different races.

Statistics from sports-reference.com and nfl.com