Half Term Report

With the Premier League season nearing its midpoint it would seem appropriate to check in on how each team is faring in relation to their expectations. Disagree? Let me know in the comments.

Arsenal

Grade: B
Current Position: 5th
Best Result: 5-2, Tottenham Hotspur (H)
Worst Result: 0-2, Swansea City (H)

Overview: Perhaps a surprising grade, given the turmoil that the club seem to be engulfed in. However, that "crisis" stems from the shift in ambition at Arsenal, and the truth is the Gunners have set themselves up well for a run at a top four finish, i.e. where most would have had them pegged back in August. Debates about whether Arsenal should be happy with these expectations are a different matter, but given the squad at Arsene Wenger's disposal, that is the best that most could hope for this incarnation of Arsenal.

Wenger wearing a coat nearly as long as his trophy drought.

Aston Villa

Grade: C
Current Position: 14th
Best Result: 3-1, Liverpool (A)
Worst Result: 1-4, Southampton (A)

Overview: For much of the early part of the season, Paul Lambert's men looked like relegation fodder. Thrashings by the two Manchester clubs could easily have qualified for their worst result, but losing 4-1 to fellow strugglers Southampton was a particularly low point. A season that was all doom and gloom has borne new hope in recent weeks, as Villa have seemed to have settle on a side and a strategy that works for them. After beating Liverpool at Anfield at the weekend, they will be one to watch over the festive period. Christian Benteke looks a good buy, and if the Villains are able to hit a good run of form they could well see themselves in the top half of the table by season's end - a finish that could provide the foundations for a rise back to where a club of this stature should be.

Chelsea

Grade: B-
Current Position: 3rd
Best Result: 4-2, Tottenham Hotspur (A)
Worst Result: 2-3, Manchester United (H)

Overview: Picking a best result proved harder than you would think, given the apparent ease with which Chelsea asserted their dominance at the beginning of the season. Wins away at London rivals Arsenal and Spurs seemed the pick of the bunch, and I gave the nod to the Blues' win at White Hart Lane given the way they rebounded after losing their lead. Flying high at that point of the season, and the pick of many as title contenders, the match that I've chosen as their worst result, the home loss to Manchester United, proved the turning point of their season. Since then Chelsea have lost a manager, a Champions League berth, a Club World Cup final and the initiative in their league campaign, sitting 13 points off the lead (albeit with a game in hand). It's going to be a tough next six months for Rafa Benitez.

Everton

Grade: A-
Current Position: 6th
Best Result: 1-0, Manchester United (H)
Worst Result: 1-2, Reading (A)

Overview: Predicted by many to be heading for a mid-table finish before the season, Everton shocked United in the first round of fixtures of the new season and have seldom slowed since. Buoyed by the emergence of Marouane Fellaini as a true star of the Premier League, David Moyes' men have been the model of consistency, losing only twice and proving tough opposition for even the biggest clubs. That said, the Toffees have arguably drawn more than they should, missing out on a potential opportunity to consolidate their good form into something more tangible than their current position in the table - always a worry with a squad as apparently thin as Everton's. However, as notoriously slow starters, the blue half of Liverpool will be hoping this strong first half will prove the foundation for a top four finish.

Marouane approves.

Fulham

Grade: C-
Current Position: 13th
Best Result: 5-0, Norwich City (H)
Worst Result: 0-3, West Ham United (A)

Overview: Martin Jol's team are a frustrating outfit that appear able to win or lose to anyone in the league from week to week - though some of this can be attributed to the loss of two key figures from their previous campaign, with Clint Dempsey and Mousa Dembélé both moving across the city to Spurs. The arrival of Dimitar Berbatov has provided some hope, with the Bulgarian recapturing some of the form that preceded his big money move to Old Trafford, though not enough to completely stave off the Cottagers' demons. For a club that has a squad worthy of a top half finish, if not higher, Fulham's current league position is a great disappointment. True to their bipolar tendencies, if Fulham can find some form and consistency they could end up pushing for Europe, though a particularly long bad run of results could see them veering dangerously close to the relegation fight.

Liverpool

Grade: F
Current Position: 12th
Best Result: 5-2, Norwich City (A)
Worst Result: 1-3, Aston Villa (H)

Overview: Liverpool's league performance last season was meant to represent the nadir of their rebuilding process, but the Reds have struggled mightily this term. This Liverpool side are defined by dysfunction, with baffling personnel decisions (entering the season with Luis Suarez as their only recognised striker, reportedly alienating emerging talent Raheem Sterling through contract negotiations, telling Stewart Downing he can leave before the transfer window has opened) begetting inconsistent results. With manager Brendan Rodgers appearing increasingly out of touch (he recently claimed Liverpool are still aiming for second place) Liverpool fans could be forgiven for fearing the worst from this campaign.

It's been that kind of season at Anfield.

Manchester City

Grade: B+
Current Position: 2nd
Best Result: 5-0, Aston Villa (H)
Worst Result: 2-3, Manchester United (H)

Overview: Though still in second place, City have failed to regain the swagger with which they stormed through much of last season. Currently 6 points adrift, to complete consecutive title wins will prove a tough prospect, if not impossible. If the blue moon is to continue to shine atop the Premier League skyline, Roberto Mancini's men will have to improve their results against those clubs around them, with a win against Spurs their only success against any of the current top 6 (P5 W1 D3 L1). However, if the clichéd "mark of a champion" is to win a games in which you have not been the best team, then City can be seen to be achieving something like the long-term variety of that idiom, still maintaining a title challenge when surely their best form must lay ahead of them.

Manchester United

Grade: A-
Current Position: 1st
Best Result: 3-2, Manchester City (A)
Worst Result: 0-1, Norwich City (A)

Overview: Another year, another season where Manchester United sit top of the Premiership without ever truly sparkling for any prolonged period of time. These Red Devils do not strike the same fear into the hearts of their opposition as previous iterations, but they are still getting the results. Robin van Persie has settled into the side without any hint of a struggle, and for United fans the hope will be for more of the same come the new year. Though Sir Alex Ferguson's team should be wary of City hitting their stride, much of the same can be said about this United team. Should Rooney and van Persie find their best form at the same time, there's little hope for the rest of the league, even with a defence that has seemed as leaky as United's has at times.

Newcastle United

Grade: F
Current Position: 15th
Best Result: 2-1, Tottenham Hotspur (H)
Worst Result: 0-2, Southampton (A)

Overview: In many ways, Newcastle's fall from grace could have been predicted. For a squad as thin at the top as the Magpies' to get through last season unscathed was something of a stroke of luck, and with  Europa League commitments to consider this term, players were going to start dropping at some point. Long term injuries to Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye have left Alan Pardew's side bereft of creativity, and spells on the sidelines for Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor at different parts of the season have contributed to a defence both unsettled and unsettling for the Toon's supporters. The prescribed tonic would be to add depth in the January transfer window, and to hold on to Demba Ba. Even if these ambitions are fulfilled, this season is already looking like a failure on Tyneside after the heroics of the last campaign.

Norwich City

Grade: A
Current Position: 8th
Best Result: 1-0, Manchester United (H)
Worst Result: 0-5, Fulham (A)

Overview: Assumed in August to be relegation fodder, Chris Hughton has the Canaries far exceeding expectations. After overcoming a slow start to the campaign, Norwich have emerged as a formidable opponent at Carrow Road, emerging victorious from matches with both Manchester United and Arsenal. Hughton has a highly motivated team of hard-working players, with Anthony Pilkington, Wes Hoolahan and Robert Snodgrass particularly impressing, along with summer signing Sebastien Bassong. However, Norwich are sure to hit a rough patch at some point, and 8th seems an unsustainable position for a team of such limited resources. The good news is that they may have already done enough to ensure their place in the division for another year, which even the most optimistic of fans of the Yellows would have admitted was this season's primary objective.

There's certainly cause for celebration at Carrow Road.

Queens Park Rangers

Grade: D
Current Position: 19th
Best Result: 2-1, Fulham (H)
Worst Result: 1-3, Southampton (H)

Overview: After leaving it to the last day of the season to ensure their participation in this year's campaign, Q.P.R. enlisted the help of twelve new players over the summer to avoid the same situation this time around. It didn't work. Having taken until the 17th game of the season to record their first win, the opening half of this campaign has not been kind to the R's. So surely an F grade would be fitting? Not quite. In jettisoning Mark Hughes and replacing him with Harry Redknapp, steps seem to be being taken in the right direction. With Redknapp at the helm, a squad who have under-performed to this point will undoubtedly begin to find some of the form that gives some of its names such stature on paper. Funds will undoubtedly be available in the coming transfer window for Harry to work some of his magic (just don't call him a wheeler-dealer); it's certainly possible that Rangers' darkest days are behind them.

Reading

Grade: C-
Current Position: 20th
Best Result: 2-1, Everton (H)
Worst Result: 2-3, Wigan Athletic (A)

Overview: Though bottom of the league, it is tough to see the season so far as a failure for the Royals, as most expected them to struggle. If anything, credit must be given for the way in which Brian McDermott's side have put the fear into many of the bigger names in the division. Reading have certainly proved they are able to score goals at this level, the problems have been at the other end of the pitch. Unable to match the spending power of those clubs around them at the foot of the table, the outlook isn't particularly rosy for the Royals. The hope is that they will continue to provide the same entertainment value as they have so far.

Southampton

Grade: C
Current Position: 17th
Best Result: 2-0, Newcastle United (H)
Worst Result: 1-6, Arsenal (A)

Overview: Given a somewhat lenient grade for much the same reason as Reading, Southampton find themselves about where many would expect them to be at this point, if not higher. Also like Reading, Southampton have shown the ambition to play attacking football, and have been successful on occasion. The worry is whether the Saints have the consistency or the currency to maintain their current spot just above the relegation zone - but up to this point the season has been something of a success for Nigel Adkins' side.

Stoke City

Grade: B
Current Position: 9th
Best Result: 1-1, Manchester City (H)
Worst Result: 2-4, Manchester United (A)

Overview: Stoke City have become a model of consistency in recent years, with Tony Pulis' side ignoring the critics of their physical style and continuing to provide effective, reliable results. The envy of many clubs of a similar stature, the Potters find themselves in the top half of the table without much fanfare - though it is easy to see why: having not scored more than two goals, or conceded more than two (with the exception of their loss to Manchester United), Stoke have hardly been an exciting team for the neutral over this campaign. Not that Pulis, or the Stoke fans, particularly care - they'll happily take another top half finish. There's little reason at this point of the season to presume they won't achieve it.

Sunderland

Grade: D
Current Position: 16th
Best Result: 3-1, Fulham (A)
Worst Result: 2-4, West Bromwich Albion (H)

Overview: After his appointment last season, Martin O'Neill immediately set about making Sunderland hard to beat - a recurring feature of his teams over the years. He achieved this, and the Black Cats went on to draw many of their ensuing fixtures, appearing to be building a foundation for further improvement this term. Therefore it is startling that they have taken a step backwards. Despite the big summer additions of Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson, Sunderland find themselves in a relegation battle they had hoped to avoid this time around. Fletcher has not disappointed, but O'Neill needs a bigger contribution from those around him, particularly Johnson and Stephane Sessegnon, who has failed to sparkle as brightly as he did last season. If the performance levels don't rise, the Black Cats could find themselves running out of lives quickly.

Swansea City

Grade: B+
Current Position: 10th
Best Result: 2-0, Arsenal (A)
Worst Result: 0-3, Everton (H)

Overview: After a summer that saw Swansea lose their manager Brendan Rodgers, and several key players in Scott Sinclair, Joe Allen, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Steven Caulker, many expected the Premiership's lone Welsh representative to come crashing back to Earth after a surprising first campaign. Instead, Michael Laudrup has the Swans sitting comfortably in mid-table, with their sights set higher, quite realistically. This has been achieved without sacrificing any of the style that has seen Swansea become the critics' darling, unearthing a rough diamond in Michu - undoubtedly the bargain signing of the season, a snip at £2 million from Rayo Vallecano despite his 15 goals in La Liga last season. Seemingly the only obstacle to the Swans' steady ascent would be a rash of injuries to key players, as there is not a great deal of depth in the squad.

A man who has clearly never heard Tragedy by Steps.

Tottenham Hotspur

Grade: B
Current Position: 4th
Best Result: 3-2, Manchester United (A)
Worst Result: 2-5, Arsenal (A)

Overview: Many would have been forgiven for expecting Spurs to endure something of a rebuilding year, having lost Harry Redknapp, Luka Modric, Rafael van der Vaart and Ledley King in the space of one summer, but Andre Villas-Boas' side find themselves in fourth place without ever truly hitting the heights this term. This Tottenham side have been patchy, with runs of good and bad form masking the true identity of this new incarnation as it finds its feet. New signing Mousa Dembélé has proved vital to the rhythm of this Spurs team, and his inclusion would seem vital to the maintaining of a position in the top four. Despite the turmoil that has accompanied the lower ebbs of Tottenham's season, they appear well positioned to achieve this ambition.

West Bromwich Albion

Grade: A
Current Position: 7th
Best Result: 2-1, Chelsea (H)
Worst Result: 1-3, Swansea City (A)

Overview: With many predicting a lower half to mid-table finish in the wake of Roy Hodgson's departure to take charge of England, the Baggies' ascent into the upper echelons of the division has been one of the surprises of the season. Steve Clarke's side are effective and ambitious, tough to beat but dangerous on the counter attack. With Shane Long particularly impressive, West Brom have sat in or around the top four for much of the campaign. Though currently enduring a rough patch of form, the Baggies are still well set up to push for European football, a feat many thought impossible before the season.

...and the Baggies haven't looked back since.

West Ham United

Grade: B+
Current Position: 11th
Best Result: 3-1, Chelsea (H)
Worst Result: 1-2, Wigan Athletic (A)

Overview: Sitting in mid-table in their first season back in the Premiership, West Ham look set to defy their recent status as a "yo-yo club" and achieve safety from relegation. Their direct, physical style under Sam Allardyce has the Hammers sitting pretty in mid-table, having risen into the European qualification spots in moments of particularly high form. West Ham have achieved this despite a slew of injuries (most notably to the big arrival of the summer, Andy Carroll), suggesting that this good run is unlikely to tail off. With a mid-table finish appearing so likely, this season can be seen as a great success for a newly promoted team - a fact easy to forget given the status of the club and the ease with which they have re-assimilated themselves to life in the top flight.

Wigan Athletic

Grade: C-
Current Position: 18th
Best Result: 1-0, Tottenham Hotspur (A)
Worst Result: 0-4, Manchester United (A)

Overview: At what point do Wigan's results before March get disregarded? With Roberto Martinez having masterminded a seemingly impossible escape from relegation in two consecutive years, the Latics' current position feels irrelevant. It is frustrating that the club so regularly fail to build on the positive momentum they accumulate at the end of each campaign, leading many to wonder whether this is the year that Wigan's luck runs out. At this point I would hesitate to prognosticate either way, Martinez has won the benefit of the doubt from me when it comes to the run-in, but it's hard to tell whether the poor performances of this year's team to this date will undermine him.

Beating the Bookies: Week 16

A solid week of predicting amongst a week of blow outs in the NFL. It's almost refreshing after all the upsets and narrow results to see teams flexing their muscles on Statement Sunday, and with the play-offs a mere fortnight away it should be an exciting end to the 2012 season. Unfortunately though sad news as Waffle slips up and suffers his first loss. Let's hope he can recover in time (and maybe listen to some brotherly advice) for this penultimate week of the regular season.

Week 15:

Outright = 11-5
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 142-83
Spread = 122-100-3 
SFBOTW = 7-7-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-1-1


Falcons @ Lions +4
After Atlanta's demolition of the Giants and the Lions' lop-sided loss to Arizona, this one is something of a no-brainer.

Falcons -4 SFBOTW!

Raiders @ Panthers -9.5
Carolina looked hot versus San Diego, and the Raiders beat the Chiefs on 5 Janikowski field goals... The spread however is very harsh so I'll err on the side of caution and take the points.

Raiders +9.5 (Panthers to win)

Another great off-season release from SD 

Saints @ Cowboys -1
The Cowboys squeeze by the Steelers, and with everything on the line for them in a deadlocked NFC East I'll stick with Romo and co.

Cowboys -1 

Chargers @ Jets -1
Tricky one as both looked extremely sub-par last weekend. However San Diego's problems are more consistency based, whereas the Jets are just suffering from an obscene lack of talent. With that in mind I'll roll with San Diego to grab a solid victory.

Chargers +1 (and to win)

Titans @ Packers -13
The Titans looked pretty rough despite a win over the rougher Jets, so I'll take the Pack despite a very large margin. 

Packers -13

Vikings @ Texans -9.5
Tough one as the Texans should win, but the Vikings comfortably saw off the Rams to remain in play-off contention. With that in mind (not to mention AP will be running hard for the rushing record) I'll take the points. 

Vikings +9.5 (Texans to win)

Patriots @ Jaguars +14
An upset for the Patriots at home, but despite a big spread I'll back Belichick to bounce back with a ruthless win as he invariably does following a bad loss. 

Patriots -14 

Colts @ Chiefs +6.5
Luck and the Colts lose to the Texans and will have to content themselves with a (still impressive) wild card berth. They should see off the stagnant Chiefs by at least a score.

Colts -6.5

Bills @ Dolphins -4
Buffalo just got walloped by the Seahawks, but I can't see them doing an Arizona and bouncing back from their 50-burger with a win over Miami. 

Dolphins -4 

Redskins @ Eagles +4.5
RG3 will be back for this one, and with an NFC East title just 2 wins away they won't take their foot off the gas now.

Redskins -4.5

Bengals @ Steelers -4
Pivotal AFC North show-down that will decide the remaining 2nd wildcard slot. I like the Bengals to win this one, finally coming out of the Steelers' shadow in the division's hierarchy. 

Bengals +4 (and to win)

Rams @ Buccs -3
With both teams coming off tough losses this could go either way, but I'll hesitantly back Tampa to snag a narrow win at home.

Buccs -3

Browns @ Broncos -13
Interesting one, with the Broncos comfortably seeing off the Ravens and the Browns falling to Cousins and the Skins. At home, they should repeat versus a weaker AFC North outfit.

Broncos -13

Giants @ Ravens +1
Big game here, and one both teams will be desperate not to lose. I think the Giants will be a touch more desperate however, and at a marginal spread I like them to win and maintain pace in the East.

Giants -1 

Bears @ Cardinals +5.5
Despite Arizona just grabbing a nice win versus Detroit, I like Chicago to come in and pump the brakes on their late season slide in a confident victory.

Bears -5.5

49ers @ Seahawks Pick 'em
Very tough one to call, with both coming off huge wins and still all to play for in the NFC West. With that in mind I'll let Waffle and Ralph take the next step up to prime-time: 

Again we have a split decision! If this keeps happening I might have to divide their segment, but for now we'll go with the first choice, that being Waffle and the visiting Niners, who control their own destiny for the NFC West crown. This should be a fantastic game, and as unpredictable as any I've seen this season. 

49ers


Long term prospects!

Superbowl special:

Following on from last weeks recommendations, I'll update you on the odds: 
Baltimore (were 23.00) = Risen to 29.00 Whilst they've looked very shoddy, they are garunteed play-off football at this point. I advised waiting last week, but their game with the Giants could go either way so now is the time to strike if you are going to. MAYBE.
Chicago (41.00) = Doubled to 81.00! - Their chances of even making the playoffs are looking rocky... But definitely worth £1 at this price! YES (Small).
Washington (34.00) = Dropped to 26.00 - Looking as likely as any of the NFC East to make it in, and definitely have the potential to go on a run. I wouldn't bet on them at this low price though. NO.

Introducing a new prospect:

Green Bay = 8.50 The odds are far from great but they are definitely worth putting a medium sized stake on at 8.50, as will almost certainly be a contender to at least make the big game. YES.

Good luck.


*Lines accurate as of 18/12/12 via Sportacular. LTP odds from skybet.*

Beating the Bookies: Week 15

Another very average week and unfortunately another loss in my SFBOTW (sad face). I was convinced the Falcons would handle the Panthers, but it turned out to not even be close. In more shocking news, Waffle failed to pick the winner, but hit the spread spot on to grab a draw and keep the rabbits undefeated. With just three regular season weeks left I could do with a few big results to go my way, especially on my somewhat ironically named sure fire bets.

Week 14:

Outright = 9-7
Spread = 7-8-1
SFBOTW = 0-1
Waffle + Ralph = 0-0-1

Overall:

Outright = 131-78
Spread = 112-94-3 
SFBOTW = 6-7-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-0-1



Bengals @ Eagles +3
Interesting one as one of these won and one lost, and not the way round many expected those results to fall. Whilst the Bengals failed to win against the Cowboys it was still close, and whenever you have a team pushing for a WC spot this late on you have to back them over one who's season is all but meaningless. 

Bengals -3  

Giants @ Falcons -1
Eli late on in the season as the underdog, against a team that just lost to the Panthers, with everything on the line for NY? As much as dislike the man, I can't not pick him here.

Giants +1 (and to win)

Broncos @ Ravens +3
Tough one as I think the Ravens are still a quality side, and can give anyone a run for their money at home. Peyton though is a cut above, and it's very hard to not go with Denver with the form they're in. I'll double down on the brothers Manning.

Broncos -3

Packers @ Bears +2.5
The Pack demolished Chicago earlier this season. Even away and with a few injuries I don't see the record being changed here.

Packers -2.5 SFBOTW!

Redskins @ Browns +6.5
The 'skins are playing some great football right now, and whilst I like the Browns to make this competitive I think they should manage a TD.

Skins -6.5

Pretty fly for a white guy

Colts @ Texans -8.5 
Tough one, as I'm not as hot on Indy as everyone else in the world seems to be. However, Houston just lost big so I'll take a healthy 8 and a half and hope for some more 4th quarter magic from Luck.

Colts +8.5 (Texans win)

Jags @ Dolphins -7
The Jags just lost to the Jets, but with two poor teams I'll always take the points, even if the match-up isn't favourable at all.

Jags +7 (Dolphins to win)

Buccaneers @ Saints -3
Tricky one with both teams coming off tough losses. I can't decide so I'll leave it to Waffle and Ralph to bounce back with a W:

Shocking controversy here as Waffle confidently picks Tampa but Ralph clearly prefers NO. We'll go with Waffle's selection as he has been the chief chooser so far (and I'm not even sure Ralph would come out the cage if he didn't first)... but this could be a worrying sign for their team unity.

Buccaneers +3 (and to win)

Vikings @ Rams -3
AP is an absolute beast. I can only see one winner here, even if the Rams have hit a mini vein of form. 

Vikings +3 (and to win)

Lions @ Cardinals +6
The Lions have been struggling to win games of late, but haven't been playing terrible football. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have the worst offence in the league right now. 

Lions -6 

Seahawks @ Bills +4
After an epic blow out of the Cardinals I've got to ride with the Hawks, surely even a cross country trip can't slow down this freight-train?

Hawks -4 

Panthers @ Chargers -3
Winning at this point just increases the slim chance of Norv keeping is job. I almost want us to lose, but can see us grabbing a tight victory and ultimately finishing 8-8, missing out on the playoffs on a tie-breaker just like last year.

Chargers -3

Steelers @ Cowboys No Spread
Interesting match-up, and I'm undecided here. The Cowboys are on a hot streak, but surely it's just a matter of time before they shoot themselves in the foot? The Steelers just got beat down by the Chargers (lol) so it should be another even encounter. I'll side with the home team but with some huge reservations.

Cowboys 

Chiefs @ Raiders -2.5
A very un-sexy match-up between two of the worst in the league. I'll go with the hosts, but it could tip either way.

Raiders -2.5 

49ers @ Patriots -6
Tough one to call. I like the match-up SF give the Patriots, and I think this could be a thrilling encounter and potential SB preview. Two big games in as many weeks is hard to prepare for, and whilst I think NE should squeeze it I'll take the points. 

49ers +6 (Pats to win)

Jets @ Titans -1
Who knows who is going to win this 'prime-time' game, all I know is nobody will be watching.

Titans -1


Brand NEW FEATURE: Long term prospects!

I'm including a new little spot here, LTP. These could be divisional winners, Super Bowl winners, or at the start of the season a team's projected win/loss over/under. Basically anything that catches my eye, for example 2 weeks ago I laid a nice double on the Packers and Ravens to win their divisions which pays 3/1.I won't be keeping a strict record of these like I do with my spreads etc. but will keep track of their progress.

SB winners:

Right now you can get some big odds on some teams that should make the post-season, and as we all know once we get to that stage anything can happen.

I think these 3 are all worth sticking a couple on if you want somebody to cheer for come January due to the team you support being a bunch of over-paid idiots: 

Baltimore = 23.00 (£1 = £23.00) - The Ravens were a Cundiff miss away from the big dance last year, and whilst they've hit a dip in form they are good value here. However it's definitely worth waiting till after they lose to the Broncos when the odds will get even better (but they'll still win the AFC North).
Chicago = 41.00 - O-line issues but as they say D-fence wins champs
Washington = 34.00 - Outside chance for sure but they have a real shot of making the post-season and are a danger for any team.

Compare those to say Seattle who are a fairly generous 21.00, or worse still NYG at 13.00 and I think they are quite favourable. I still expect one of the big 5 (Pats, Texans, Broncos, 49ers, GB) to take the Lombardi, but at outside odds those 3 are nice value.

As always, good luck!

*Odds accurate as of 11/12/12. LTP via skybet*

Beating the Bookies: Week 14

Ouch. That was an ugly week for me, with almost nothing going the way I called it. My only saving grace is that my SFBOTW landed meaning I'm 0.500 going into the final stretch. Waffle again picks a winner meaning the rabbits are sitting pretty at 3-0, with my own accuracy being outshone by two small (ish) animals...

Week 13:

Outright = 9-7
Spread = 7-9
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0

Overall:

Outright = 122-71
Spread = 105-86-2 
SFBOTW = 6-6-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-0


Broncos @ Raiders +10.5
Very tough one as the points seem spot on. We would obviously all expect the Broncos to win comfortably but a 10.5 margin is enough to give anyone pause for thought. Denver will  be pushing to get a first round bye so every win counts at this stage. I'll take the visitors but will be staying well away from this one.

Broncos -10.5 

Rams @ Bills -3
Interesting one as both are coming off wins. I can see either side grabbing this one, and with that in mind I'll happily take the 3 points.

Rams +3 (Bills to win)

Falcons @ Panthers +3.5 
Sure, the Falcons may have the division sewn up, and typically haven't been posting huge wins, but with the Panthers coming off a loss to the Chiefs I think this is a banker. 

Falcons -3.5 SFBOTW!

Cowboys @ Bengals -3
Another tough one to call with both sides pushing for playoff spots, and both coming off wins vs the Eagles and Chargers respectively. I don't pay much attention to 'silly' records when it comes to betting, eg: Andy Reid being undefeated after the bye (which ceased being the case earlier this year), and Romo's notoriety in the month of December is another one of those over exaggerated trends. Despite that, I still like Cincy to be the better side here and improve their post-season chances.

Bengals -3

Chiefs @ Browns -4.5 
The Chiefs win an emotional game vs Carolina following Belcher's reported murder-suicide, whereas the Browns take care of business vs Oakland. I like the Browns to win here, but 4.5 is a large spread for two usually low scoring outfits. Even so, I'll bank on them to just cover. It's weird to see Cleveland with any kind of handicap, let alone one this large!

Browns -4.5 

Titans @ Colts -5
With Luck and the Colts coming off an improbable away win at Detroit I don't see why they can't comfortably handle Tennessee at home. 

Colts -5

Jets @ Jags +1
McElroy is 1-0 as a Jet, and whilst they'll probably still start Sanchez vs the Jags (they have too much $ invested in him to give up now), if he keeps performing like that it won't be too long before he goes along with Ryan. The Jaguars just got beat by the Bills, but I like them to edge another close one here.

Jags +1 (and to win)

Bears @ Vikings +2.5
Chicago slipped up against the Hawks, but should regain their balance here with a win, pushing GB to the wire for control of the NFC North.

Bears -2.5 

Eagles @ Buccs -8.5
Another big spread for the visiting Eagles, but this time I like the home side to put up enough points to cover it. Both are coming off one score losses, but the Buccs played the better side so I like Tampa so make a statement here and get back in the wildcard hunt.

Buccs -8.5 

Ravens @ Redskins -2.5
Interesting one as although I'm although I'm as big an RG3 fan as you'll find, I'm not sure they deserve to be favourites against a team of the Ravens' quality. That said, Baltimore have struggled the last 2 weeks with a narrow win over SD followed by a loss to Charlie Batch and the Steelers... I'll side with Washington but wouldn't be surprised to see either side win narrowly.

Skins -2.5

Dolphins @ 49ers -10
Another tough line with both teams coming off losses, even if the Niners' was a lot narrower and a lot more unexpected. I'm going to put it down to the Rams' having SF's number this year and peg them to win big once again. 

49ers -10 

Saints @ Giants -5
Don't let Monday's performance fool you, the Giants are still alive and kicking, and as dangerous as ever in the playoff hunt. This is the sort of game they will go out and dominate after last week's loss, and the Saints at this point have nothing to play for. 

Giants -5

Cardinals @ Seahawks -10
10 points is a huge spread for a team that runs a more conservative offense, especially when facing a top-notch defence like 'Zona's. Add to that the fact the Cardinals beat them in week 1 (albeit when they were good, and not in Seattle) and I like them to run the 'Hawks close enough, even without a QB of note.

Cardinals +10 (Seahawks to win)

Chargers @ Steelers -7.5
As much as I've given up on this team under Turner and Smith, I still like us to scrape a spread this size. 

Chargers +7.5 (Steelers to win)



Lions @ Packers -7
This one was close when they played at Detroit, but the Packers have more on the line here so should avoid the upset. 7 points though is quite a heady margin  so I'll defer to the undefeated tandem:

Coming way out of left field he makes another assertive choice. Impossible to say if Ralph concurs as Waffle is so sure of his selection he takes it home with him, displaying some impressive YAC (yards after carrot) in the process.

Lions +7 (Packers win)

Texans @ Patriots -4.5
Very tasty MNF show-down between two of the AFC's big boys. This should be a great encounter and a potential playoff preview, so I like it to be a tight one with NE just edging it.

Texans +4.5 (Patriots to win)

Good luck.

*All odds accurate as of 04/12/12 via Yahoo's 'sportacular' app*

Leicester Longhorns 8 – 26 Warwick Wolves

American Football has a way of feeling special when played under floodlights, but unfortunately for the University of Leicester Longhorns it was only once the sun had set that they began to play to their full potential. It’s a tired cliché, but this matchup of Midlands Athletic Conference foes was truly a game of two halves.

The Longhorns came into the game on the back of a frustrating game against Nottingham Trent that saw them fall just short of completing an impressive comeback, and hopes were high for a team with a lot of first year players and a first year head coach as well. It was a shame, therefore, that they ran into a Warwick team that was firing at full cylinders early in the contest. Highlights were few and far between for Leicester in the first half, though Sam Taylor found enough time to continue his early season run of interceptions before being forced out of the game due to injury. Injury also claimed Sam Schoen, whose 4.5 yards per carry were another bright spot in an otherwise disappointing half. Richard Penn’s presence on defense was also notable as he amassed 2 tackles including a tackle for loss and successfully defended 2 passes in the first half alone.

Down 20-0 at the interval, the Longhorns coaching staff made adjustments that paid dividends immediately. Leicester took the opening kick-off of the second half and began an effective and methodical drive down the field on the back of a high-tempo running game that went some way to negate the advantage of Warwick’s much larger squad. Alex Darcy’s tough running inside, often appearing to be stopped before driving the pile forward for an extra 2 or 3 yards, and Stuart Rawlings’ ability to make a man miss on the edge combined to allow Leicester to pick up large chunks of yardage that were not there in the first half. First year quarterback Joe McDougall also grew in confidence, finding Ed Spoerry for a 30 yard catch and Miguel Moore twice for a total of 40 yards receiving. It was a swing pass from McDougall to Rawlings that put the Longhorns on the goal line, from where Darcy punched home the touchdown. Rawlings then converted the 2 point attempt. Darcy would finish the day with 41 yards on 16 attempts and a touchdown, Rawlings with 30 yards on 9 attempts and the two pointer. This positive momentum encouraged the defense to also step up, as they held Warwick to only 6 points in the second half, shutting them out in the fourth quarter entirely. Tony Reeve was particularly electric, with 4 tackles, one for a loss, a sack and a forced fumble to his name, all in the second half.

Though the turnaround ultimately came too late to reverse the result, the Longhorns will be greatly encouraged by the heart shown in the second half, and the coaching staff will take confidence from the success of their adjustments. Though their record stands at 0-3 at the moment, this young team appears to grow every week and will be confident that they can use the five remaining games on the schedule to make this season a success. That starts with a game against Lincoln on Saturday 1^st December.

Team MVP: James Newman DL/OL; Offensive MVP: Alex Darcy RB; Defensive MVP: Tony Reeve LB.