In lieu of the biggest game
of the NFL season, I’ve enlisted Tommy of "Beating the Bookies" fame for
a bumper Super Bowl preview. For a more formal preview of the league's marquee
event, you can visit my post for The Ripple or Tommy's for Double Coverage.
GS: So after a thrilling set
of play off games, we've arrived here once again. I think it's only apt that I
let you kick-off with your betting preview for this game, Tommy, especially as you've amassed an impressive record in your betting previews, correctly predicting 65% of regular season contests and 90% of post-season games, with an above average record against the spread (the bookmakers' great equaliser). So have at it!
TG: Thanks Greg. Super Bowl
XLVII looks to be a great one with so many key match ups and story lines
culminating in New Orleans this Sunday. From a betting perspective this is as
tough a game as I've had to call all year and the bookmakers clearly agree with
a narrow 3.5 spread in favour of San Francisco. We'll be going into the ins and
outs of what it will likely boil down to later, but from a gambling perspective
I'll always take the points in a game this tightly weighted.
Ravens +3.5 is decent shout
if you want to bet on just the outright - but part of the fun of the Super
Bowl, at least for addicted seasoned gamblers like me, is some of the
more outlandish bets you can take a flyer on. At this point I've made my profit
for the year on the NFL and I just want to go a little crazy (whilst still
having a good shout at winning some money).
These are some bets I'll be
eyeing up for the big night:
Kaepernick to get > 55
rushing yards (evens). His yardage mark should be set at around this many, and
I've had continued success betting on the over on rushing quarterbacks this post-season.
I can see Kaepernick exploding, รก la the Green Bay game, against the Ravens, and there
are few more exciting things to be cheering for than the signal-caller to take off and
run.
Ravens to kick a longer FG than the 49ers
(evens). David Akers is having a torrid time of it, and it seems like any field
goal bets are arbitrarily set at evens no matter the teams involved. Get all
over this one.
Ray Lewis to win Super Bowl MVP
(8/1). Yes the award traditionally goes to a quarterback, but neither of the gunslingers
in this game are exactly the typical darlings of the NFL we're used to seeing (i.e.
somebody named Manning, Brady, Rodgers or Brees). I can see this being a
defensive struggle, and if big Ray gets a pivotal turnover or big stop he could
swing an emotional vote.
Anquan Boldin to score at any time (3/1). The
physical WR has been red hot the last few weeks, and has Super Bowl experience, playing for the Cardinals in their 2009 loss to Pittsburgh. I like him to get
into the end zone at least once on Sunday.
If you're going to be
watching the big game with enough other people - as the two of us will be at the Leicester Longhorns' Annual Super Bowl Party - be sure to get involved in the inevitable pools that go down.
You'll get better odds than from the bookies and there's nothing like healthy
competition mixed with alcohol to turn great friendships into bitter rivalries. Any betting action catching your gaze, Greg?
GS: I'm not usually a big gambler, though I do
get roped in around Super Bowl time, and I like the odds on a couple of those
prop bets you've picked there. A discussion of prop bets seems about as good a
time as any to segue to some smaller picks before addressing the final score.
PICKS
Super Bowl MVP
GS: As you addressed above,
I think the favourite here has to be Ray Lewis. Those awarding this honour have
proven time and again that they're willing to overlook a more worthy recipient
if it fits the narrative they were peddling pre-game (see Peyton Manning in
2007). If the Ravens win they'll find a reason to give this to
Ray. If San Francisco wins, that's where I think this gets tougher, and I think
it comes down to who has a big game on the night. Michael Crabtree has had a
good post-season, Vernon Davis always has the potential to be explosive and
Frank Gore is a top back. I don't see Kaepernick living up to the hype enough
to warrant a selection here without a big game from one of those three. 
TG: I'm actually going to fly in the face of
my own recommendation and not go for Ray. Whilst I like his chances as middle
to outside bet I don't think he's the favourite. For that you can't ever look
beyond the respective quarterbacks (despite their relatively unheralded status compared
to some in the league). I see a lot of resemblances in Flacco to Eli Manning -
they're both very average regular season quarterbacks who manage to turn it on in the
post-season. For that reason I'm going with Joe, I think the Ravens will need a
big game from him if they are going to win, and he's been looking extremely
polished recently. Should San Francisco win it's anyone's prize, with Kaepernick as the
forerunner ahead of the other offensive stars you've mentioned, but I'll stick
with Flacco to have his elite claims semi-justified just like Eli before him.
First TD scorer
TG: My turn up first with
this one. Both teams have a wealth of offensive talent to pick from without a
standout favourite catching my eye. Torrey Smith, Boldin or Ray Rice would be
my obvious choices from the Ravens side, but I'm going to go with San Francisco's Vernon
Davis to grab the first points. I think the Ravens will be focused on trying to
shut down the Niners' two-headed running attack and let the explosive tight end slip
out. He's played a somewhat diminished role in their offence since
Kaepernick took the reigns (up until last week), but I'll look for him to
dominate from the outset here.
GS: Before even reading your pick I'd used the
same logic for mine, but I'm going with Dennis Pitta. With all the talent out
there, I think he's the one that flies under the radar, finds some wriggle room and
gets open for the first TD. That said, I was tempted to go with Gore, simply
because I can see San Francisco receiving the ball from the kick off and
driving methodically before pounding it in from short yardage. Still, I'll take
the flat bread man, Pitta for me.
Most likely scapegoat
GS: This seems like
something of a no brainer to me. Everyone who's followed this post-season
knows of David Akers' woes, and the fact that a game of this magnitude could
come down to his boot must be losing Niners fans sleep at night. I would say,
though, that I think Flacco has an outside shot at this wooden spoon of an
award. His stock has risen in recent weeks, but if he has a turnover-laden game
I expect that all to be forgotten about very quickly and for the naysayers to
potentially drive him out of Baltimore.
TG: I like the Akers pick a lot, but playing
devil's advocate I'll argue the 49ers won't put him in a game-clinching
situation unless they absolutely have to. Likewise I could see this being
Flacco if he bombs, but perhaps more likely Kaepernick. It's worth considering
though if he were to have a terrible performance would him and
Jim Harbaugh share the blame? I think however I'll come out of left field a bit
and pick Jacoby Jones for this questionable honour. The explosive WR come
return man has had a great season since being picked up by Baltimore, but
should he muff a kick or punt return in a critical moment he would prove an
easy focus for blame - something San Francisco are all too familiar with after last year's
NFC Championship game.
Biggest sleeper/most underrated player
TG: It's always tough to
find sleeper players in the Super Bowl teams, as every facet of the roster is
analysed to the nth degree in this long fortnight, but there are those players
who escape the spotlight and prove crucial to their team's success come the big
game. I could go with either of the back-up RBs here - but I like LaMichael
James to shine. The rookie has been getting a gradually increased role in
recent weeks, and his speed is perfect in the read option packages SF are sure
to roll out. I like him to grab a go ahead TD at some point.
GS: Once again it's a case of great minds
think alike, I was definitely leaning James here. As you mention, his speed is
an X-factor, and he comes into the league from the prototypical read-option
offense at the University of Oregon. Bernard Pierce, the rookie Ravens running
back, is beginning to straddle the line between sleeper and genuine weapon; a
big game from him could solidify that newfound fame for him.
Biggest disappointment/most overrated player
GS: I don't think he's
overrated necessarily, but Vernon Davis has been having a very quiet
post-season, and I think the Ravens have the athleticism in their line backing
corps to keep him under wraps - I don't foresee a big game from the big tight
end. I also don't really see a big game coming for Ray Rice. His understudy
Pierce has seen his role increase in recent games, and I think Rice will end up
playing the decoy for much of this game, running short gains on first downs to
draw in the San Francisco defence.
TG: Can I just say Ray Lewis? What about Randy
'Greatest Receiver Ever' Moss? Ok, so if we're talking a normally (or
supposedly) good player who's going to have an off day it's a tough one. I
can't rule out either team getting a lead early on so either starting RBs could
see a healthy workload. It's tempting to go for Flacco or Kaepernick here, but
I see them both doing fairly well. I'll target Michael Crabtree - the Ravens
did a great job keeping the Patriots' receiving weapons under wraps so I can
see another quiet game for the normally exciting young receiver.
Most underrated storyline
TG: Let's be clear, as much
flak as Ray Lewis is taking over this most elaborate of retirements, it's not
entirely his fault. Most of us didn't expect the Ravens to get past the
divisional round, much less the Patriots in the next round - if they had fallen early he wouldn't
have built up this level of resentment. I equate it to watching Lord of the
Rings - if you're not a fan that film never seemed to end, if you are then you
lap up every minute. For the least discussed storyline I have to say the fact
that both teams competing are traditionally hard nosed defensive built squads.
We're so used to seeing the NFL's evolution into a passing league that to have
two teams that love to pound the rock and play shut down defence (rather than
air it out every down) facing off is worth celebrating far more than the fact
it's the 'Harbowl'.
GS: I can't get over the fact that no one is
mentioning that Randy Moss is still searching for his first Super Bowl ring.
Despite your sarcasm in the last category, he is genuinely one of the top 5
receivers to ever play the game, and an integral part of two of the most
explosive offenses in league history, the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and 2007 New
England Patriots. However, his teams have always fallen short, and it would
just about sum up his puzzling career for him to finally earn a ring when he's
as low key a member of a team as he's ever been.
THE PICK - Who do you each
want to win, who you think will win and why?
TG: As far as who I want to win I'm a little
torn - and not in the usual way I am torn at Super Bowl time where I can't
decide which team I'd least like to win. I have a lot of time for both the
49ers and Ravens style of football, and as obnoxious as the Harbaughs can
appear at times they are both quality coaches. I think my loyalty will rest
with San Francisco on Sunday - mainly because I'm a big fan of the guts it took
to bench your starting quarterback in favour of a relatively untested second year player. I
mentioned in a previous post that unless they made the Super Bowl, whichever
choice of quarterback Jim Harbaugh made would be the wrong one - so I'm happy to see his decision
vindicated and would love to see it rewarded further.
For who I think will win? It really is
anyone's game. A lot of people will be eyeing SF as clear favourites, but I'm
not convinced. I'm not a big believer in the whole 'team of destiny' concept,
but the Ravens do have that magic cocktail of determination, desperation and
half a jar of luck going for them. I also think they match up well on the
49ers, who struggled to keep Atlanta off the board early. SF also haven't
really been under pressure to win a game in the clutch yet this post-season -
if the Ravens can keep the score tight into the 4th quarter I think they can
and will grab their 2nd ring. I'm going Baltimore to win 24-21.
GS: I'm rooting for the Niners. I'm finding
this Ray Lewis story insufferable, particularly as it glosses over his arrest
and obstruction of justice charge in deifying him. On top of that, as an avid
follower of the college game, I'm excited to see the read-option on the biggest
stage of them all. A win for San Francisco and their Pistol offense could see
more teams adapting to the talent coming out of colleges rather than scoffing
and figuring out a way to make them fit their system. I think San Francisco
will win too, I just think they are much more talented across the board. In
terms of your sample size, the regular season would seem to be a better
indicator than their postseason success in terms of who these Ravens are. They
do have momentum behind them, but the two-week gap may slow that a little, as
well as the fact it's just simply tough to keep up that intensity for four
straight games. In their previous two games against mobile quarterbacks this
season, the Ravens lost to the Redskins and the Eagles. I see that trend
continuing and think Kaepernick will give them fits, as their defence is
already stretched thin due to injury. Give me San Francisco to win comfortably 28-10.
How do you see the future panning out
for the contenders, win or lose:
GS: Whenever a team wins a Super Bowl there's
a temptation to claim it's the beginning of a new era, but I do think that will
be somewhat the case with a San Francisco win. They're a team built through the
draft, unearthing stars where others didn't see them, and have a head coach who
is quickly overtaking Bill Belichick as the consensus pick as smartest in the league.
That said, Seattle are emerging as a serious force to be reckoned with, and
will provide some intense competition for the Niners in their own division.
Ultimately, though, win or lose I see this 49er trip to the big game as potentially the
first of many.
TG: Baltimore can definitely be said to have a
window closing faster than the Niners, with not only Lewis retiring but also
other stars like Ed Reed getting very long in the tooth. Whilst the veteran FS
has pledged to play another season at least, it's only a matter of time before
injuries catch up with him. Having said that they are by no means an aged team
overall, with a mostly youthful offence and nowhere near the number of imminent
OAPs divisional rivals Pittsburgh have. It will be interesting to see how well
they fare with a healthy squad this coming season, as they've missed the likes
of Suggs, Webb, Lewis and more for lengthy periods this year. Divisionally
speaking the AFC North is a relatively tough group (although I believe the NFC
West will be tougher next season). The Steelers are on the decline but still a
strong opponent, Cincinnati have shown a lot of promise getting to the playoffs
in back to back years and the Browns are... ok the Browns aren't going to be a
threat for a while. Win or lose I see the Ravens returning to the post-season
next year, but going out in the divisional round. Should they win and suffer a
Super Bowl hangover I can see Cincinnati winning the division ahead of them.
GS: Well that's it for our picks, and we're both looking forward to a good game. If you're in the Leicester area, the Longhorns party is always good fun - the details are linked above.
