Beating the Bookies 2013/14 Week 1

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.

Football is finally back, and we can put to bed a long and injury riddled off-season, full of stories about Colin Kaepernick's hats and more arrest warrants than a season of The Shield. Sure, we may be about to close the book of the phenom that was(?) Tebow time, but ignore that and be safe in the knowledge we are about to embark on a glorious 6 months of the greatest sport in the world.
Even more importantly, this means there is meaningful, NFL football back for us to profit from, and I have high hopes of edging out my solid results from last season (see below). I feel like this coming season has even more teams who we expect to win and win often than there were in 2013. No doubt this is partly due to the emergence of the 'Gang of Four' gifting lucky teams franchise QBs seemingly overnight, but whatever the reason now is the perfect time to get down and dirty with some NFL spread betting.

Week 1 is of course, a time of great uncertainty. We know what has occurred in the draft, we know who the big movers and shakers have been in free agency. What we don't know is how these new acquisitions, new head coaches, and new atmospheres are going to pan out for the 32 teams striving to make the Super Bowl (or in the Jets and Raiders case, just hold on). Never fear though, NFL fan with some disposable income to burn, that's where I'm here to help. Maybe.

2012/13:
Outright = 166-91 (65%)
Spread = 140-114-3 (55%)
SFBOTW = 8-8-1 (50%)
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (67%)

Ravens @ Broncos -7.5

The big opener and a chance for revenge for Manning and the Broncos. There's no doubt who the favourite is here, and it's not the SB champs. I'm not as down on the Ravens as a lot of people seem to be, and I think they have more questions to answer offensively than on their revamped defense. If the spread was a little bigger here (it's dropped recently) I'd go with Baltimore, but at just over a score I'm going to have to side with the home team.

Broncos -7.5

Patriots @ Bills +10

This spread has shot up since lines opened with the Bills in a quandary at QB. If they can get EJ back healthy they could have a promising year, but even with the talented Mr. Spiller they will be no match for the Pats (ignore the talk they'll still be formidable). I liked this a lot more when it was a one score spread but I'd still eat 10 happily here.

Patriots -10


Seahawks @ Panthers +3

I'm a little surprised to see the spread this low, but then you look at how Seattle struggled on some road games last year before their end of year blow-out streak. The Panthers will be a better team this year (Kuechly is already one of the best in the league at his position), but I'd still except the 'Hawks to win by at least a TD even on the road and light on pass rushers due to injuries and suspensions. SFBOTW contender. 

Seahawks -3


Bengals @ Bears -3

The stars of Hard Knocks make their way to Chicago to test themselves against a stringent Bears' D and an unproven offence courtesy of CFL import coach Marc Trestman. Cincy are generating a lot of hype, and with good reason as they have all the pieces in place to launch a deep play-off run. The Bears week 1 will not be an easy test though, but they have the better chance of winning with a D-line that should harry Cutler throughout. 

Bengals +3 (and to win)

Dolphins @ Browns (Pick 'em)

Miami have officially taken KC's mantle this year as the most over-hyped team for reasons I'm struggling to understand. They went big in FA and their main prize was a diva deep threat WR with questionable hands. That sounds like a recipe for success if you are playing Madden, not real life football where being fast is not the only important factor. However as much as I think they are getting over-rated, the Browns aren't far behind. Everyone seems to have pegged Jordan Cameron as the next Gates just because he's in a Norv Turner offence (good luck with that), and whilst their D is solid it won't be enough for anywhere near a winning season. Can I pick them both to lose?

Dolphins

Vikings @ Lions -3.5

Interesting match-up here as both these two teams would hope to be competitive in the NFC North, but last year the Vikings somewhat over-performed whereas the Lions definitely did the opposite. I'm not sure that projected swing warrants the Lions being favourites by this much, but I would still expect them to win. This one could go either way but I'll take the points in what Minnesota will try and keep a tight low scoring affair. 

Vikings +3.5 (Lions win)

Raiders @ Colts -10

No prizes for guessing who is going to be the favourite in this one. I think the Colts will drop a few games this year when their luck catches up to them (no pun intended), but they will still dismantle a thread-bare Raiders roster. Unless Pryor goes supernova Oakland have no chance of winning. 10 points is a lot though, so reader beware. 

Colts -10

Chiefs @ Jags +3.5

Loving this spread more every time I see it. KC look like they have all the pieces in place to finally start living up to the talent on their roster. Yes, I know people said that last year (I most definitely was not one of them), but with much better QB play and better coaching they should handle the Jaguars by a score at least. Fantasy tip: the A. Smith to J. Charles short passing connection could be huge this year. Time to give them the kiss of death and label this my sure fire bet of the week.

Chiefs -3.5 SFBOTW 

Falcons @ Saints -3

Falcons with points? Yes please. Yep, I agree NO will be back to their old tricks with Payton back at the helm, but their defence is still woeful and it'll take more than one off-season for Rob Ryan to fix that. I see them getting back to their turnover hungry Super Bowl winning defence in a couple of years (Kenny Vacarro is a great addition), but right now I'll gobble those 3 points up.

Falcons +3 (and to win)

Buccaneers @ Jets +3

Again this is a spread I love and a SFBOTW contender. The Jets defence will be good, their offence could be the worst in the league. For reals. With huge question marks over who will be starting QB for gang green I'd take Tampa by a TD let alone a FG here. It's my belief the Buccs will struggle somewhat this season and look for a new QB in 2015, but they'll have more than enough to beat a toothless NY side.

Buccs -3 

Titans @ Steelers -7

Shout out to my most reliable team of 2013 the Tennessee Titans. I'm going to give them a vote of confidence for their loyal service and say they scrape the spread here. Pittsburgh are old, injured and generally very meh right now, their opponents should have a reinvigorated run game behind Chance Warmack and could pull off a few upsets this season.

Titans +7 (Steelers win)

Packers @ 49ers -4.5

The 49ers tore GB a new one in the playoffs last season, and you can bet the Pack have spent countless hours in the film room and on the practice field figuring out how to stop Kaepernick and the read option. It won't matter. SF to win by a touchdown and set the tone in the NFC week 1. 

49ers -4.5

Cardinals @ Rams -4.5

Two under-rated teams (although it's getting to that weird point where they're called under-rated so much they become over rated now), who if playing in a different division would be in with wildcard shots. No-one has more belief the Cardinals can surprise people this year than me, but losing #1 pick Jonathan Cooper to a broken leg is a big blow. I'll go with the hosts in this one, but would love to see a Honey Badger inspired Cards upset. 

Rams -4.5  


Giants @ Cowboys -3.5


As my regular readers will know I never have much faith in the Giants. Part of that is personal bias and my belief Eli is as over-rated as they come, part is the fact they will now be relying on David 'butter fingers' Wilson to carry them through this season. My ideal scenario: Wilson fumbles 3 times in the opener, forcing the Giants to go to a pass heavy offence all season leading to Eli throwing 30 picks and being labelled the new Rivers. That won't happen, but the Cowboys will still win by a touchdown here.

Cowboys -3.5 

Eagles @ Redskins -3.5

This should be a fantastic game to watch with Chip Kelly's much lauded offence facing off against a hopefully healthy Griffin. I'll take the Redskins here as their defense is far superior, and I can feel myself getting the tell-tales chills of a nasty case of RG3ever all over again. 

Redskins -3.5 

Texans @ Chargers +3.5

I can't tell whether it's my homerism or if the Chargers are genuinely being unfairly slated this season. I've seen them ranked on a par with the Jets, which is just insulting. I think they'll surprise a few people this year. That said, they are still going to lose to Houston on Monday night, and likely by more than 3.5. This is actually another very safe bet, it pains me to admit. 

Texans -3.5

Profiting From Pain

Kevin Ware's ghastly injury over the weekend was a timely reminder of the hypocrisy that is at the core of the NCAA. Though much of the discussion surrounding his broken leg was concerned with media ethics in regard to replays, this kind of career-threatening injury calls into question the shady logic that is at the centre of the NCAA's actions.

The Men's Basketball Tournament is one of its biggest cash cows, in 2010 it was revealed that they had agreed a TV deal with CBS worth $10.8 billion over 14 years. Kevin Ware will not see any of this money, no player will. The players who are providing the entertainment and taking all of the personal risk in this situation receive no compensation outside of their athletic scholarships, which typically cover tuition and board but little else for players who disproportionately hail from some of the poorest areas of America.

However, this argument is akin to beating a dead horse at this point. What sets the Kevin Ware incident apart, for me, is the revelation today that Adidas will be selling these t-shirts, at $25 a pop.

Prominently featuring Ware's jersey number, fair game under the NCAA's definition of image rights, the sportswear giant is actively seeking to profit from the publicity surrounding his gruesome fall, under the guise of providing fans a way to show their support for him. This literal capitalisation on a young man's broken leg should not be excused because it panders to a basic human emotion, if anything it makes it more deplorable that Adidas have sought to turn sympathy into a consumer product. It smacks of the same ideology that sees many consumer products painted pink for "breast cancer awareness", an ideology that comes under attack in the documentary film Pink Ribbons, Inc, the trailer for which can be seen below.

I talk about this film further in a piece that should be published within the next couple of days. The fact that many feel the need to display their compassion for Ware on a t-shirt is worrying in itself, that Adidas is looking to profit off of this is downright troubling.

photo source: sbnation.com

"Is Ray Lewis playing in this game?" The Football Football Football Super Bowl Preview

In lieu of the biggest game of the NFL season, I’ve enlisted Tommy of "Beating the Bookies" fame for a bumper Super Bowl preview. For a more formal preview of the league's marquee event, you can visit my post for The Ripple or Tommy's for Double Coverage.

GS: So after a thrilling set of play off games, we've arrived here once again. I think it's only apt that I let you kick-off with your betting preview for this game, Tommy, especially as you've amassed an impressive record in your betting previews, correctly predicting 65% of regular season contests and 90% of post-season games, with an above average record against the spread (the bookmakers' great equaliser). So have at it!

TG: Thanks Greg. Super Bowl XLVII looks to be a great one with so many key match ups and story lines culminating in New Orleans this Sunday. From a betting perspective this is as tough a game as I've had to call all year and the bookmakers clearly agree with a narrow 3.5 spread in favour of San Francisco. We'll be going into the ins and outs of what it will likely boil down to later, but from a gambling perspective I'll always take the points in a game this tightly weighted.

Ravens +3.5 is decent shout if you want to bet on just the outright - but part of the fun of the Super Bowl, at least for addicted seasoned gamblers like me, is some of the more outlandish bets you can take a flyer on. At this point I've made my profit for the year on the NFL and I just want to go a little crazy (whilst still having a good shout at winning some money).

These are some bets I'll be eyeing up for the big night:

Kaepernick to get > 55 rushing yards (evens). His yardage mark should be set at around this many, and I've had continued success betting on the over on rushing quarterbacks this post-season. I can see Kaepernick exploding, á la the Green Bay game, against the Ravens, and there are few more exciting things to be cheering for than the signal-caller to take off and run.

Ravens to kick a longer FG than the 49ers (evens). David Akers is having a torrid time of it, and it seems like any field goal bets are arbitrarily set at evens no matter the teams involved. Get all over this one.

Ray Lewis to win Super Bowl MVP (8/1). Yes the award traditionally goes to a quarterback, but neither of the gunslingers in this game are exactly the typical darlings of the NFL we're used to seeing (i.e. somebody named Manning, Brady, Rodgers or Brees). I can see this being a defensive struggle, and if big Ray gets a pivotal turnover or big stop he could swing an emotional vote.

Anquan Boldin to score at any time (3/1). The physical WR has been red hot the last few weeks, and has Super Bowl experience, playing for the Cardinals in their 2009 loss to Pittsburgh. I like him to get into the end zone at least once on Sunday.

If you're going to be watching the big game with enough other people -  as the two of us will be at the Leicester Longhorns' Annual Super Bowl Party - be sure to get involved in the inevitable pools that go down. You'll get better odds than from the bookies and there's nothing like healthy competition mixed with alcohol to turn great friendships into bitter rivalries. Any betting action catching your gaze, Greg?

GS: I'm not usually a big gambler, though I do get roped in around Super Bowl time, and I like the odds on a couple of those prop bets you've picked there. A discussion of prop bets seems about as good a time as any to segue to some smaller picks before addressing the final score.

PICKS

Super Bowl MVP

GS: As you addressed above, I think the favourite here has to be Ray Lewis. Those awarding this honour have proven time and again that they're willing to overlook a more worthy recipient if it fits the narrative they were peddling pre-game (see Peyton Manning in 2007). If the Ravens win they'll find a reason to give this to Ray. If San Francisco wins, that's where I think this gets tougher, and I think it comes down to who has a big game on the night. Michael Crabtree has had a good post-season, Vernon Davis always has the potential to be explosive and Frank Gore is a top back. I don't see Kaepernick living up to the hype enough to warrant a selection here without a big game from one of those three.

TG: I'm actually going to fly in the face of my own recommendation and not go for Ray. Whilst I like his chances as middle to outside bet I don't think he's the favourite. For that you can't ever look beyond the respective quarterbacks (despite their relatively unheralded status compared to some in the league). I see a lot of resemblances in Flacco to Eli Manning - they're both very average regular season quarterbacks who manage to turn it on in the post-season. For that reason I'm going with Joe, I think the Ravens will need a big game from him if they are going to win, and he's been looking extremely polished recently. Should San Francisco win it's anyone's prize, with Kaepernick as the forerunner ahead of the other offensive stars you've mentioned, but I'll stick with Flacco to have his elite claims semi-justified just like Eli before him.

First TD scorer

TG: My turn up first with this one. Both teams have a wealth of offensive talent to pick from without a standout favourite catching my eye. Torrey Smith, Boldin or Ray Rice would be my obvious choices from the Ravens side, but I'm going to go with San Francisco's Vernon Davis to grab the first points. I think the Ravens will be focused on trying to shut down the Niners' two-headed running attack and let the explosive tight end slip out. He's played a somewhat diminished role in their offence since Kaepernick took the reigns (up until last week), but I'll look for him to dominate from the outset here.

GS: Before even reading your pick I'd used the same logic for mine, but I'm going with Dennis Pitta. With all the talent out there, I think he's the one that flies under the radar, finds some wriggle room and gets open for the first TD. That said, I was tempted to go with Gore, simply because I can see San Francisco receiving the ball from the kick off and driving methodically before pounding it in from short yardage. Still, I'll take the flat bread man, Pitta for me.

Most likely scapegoat

GS: This seems like something of a no brainer to me. Everyone who's followed this post-season knows of David Akers' woes, and the fact that a game of this magnitude could come down to his boot must be losing Niners fans sleep at night. I would say, though, that I think Flacco has an outside shot at this wooden spoon of an award. His stock has risen in recent weeks, but if he has a turnover-laden game I expect that all to be forgotten about very quickly and for the naysayers to potentially drive him out of Baltimore.

TG: I like the Akers pick a lot, but playing devil's advocate I'll argue the 49ers won't put him in a game-clinching situation unless they absolutely have to. Likewise I could see this being Flacco if he bombs, but perhaps more likely Kaepernick. It's worth considering though if he were to have a terrible performance would him and Jim Harbaugh share the blame? I think however I'll come out of left field a bit and pick Jacoby Jones for this questionable honour. The explosive WR come return man has had a great season since being picked up by Baltimore, but should he muff a kick or punt return in a critical moment he would prove an easy focus for blame - something San Francisco are all too familiar with after last year's NFC Championship game.

Biggest sleeper/most underrated player

TG: It's always tough to find sleeper players in the Super Bowl teams, as every facet of the roster is analysed to the nth degree in this long fortnight, but there are those players who escape the spotlight and prove crucial to their team's success come the big game. I could go with either of the back-up RBs here - but I like LaMichael James to shine. The rookie has been getting a gradually increased role in recent weeks, and his speed is perfect in the read option packages SF are sure to roll out. I like him to grab a go ahead TD at some point.

 

GS: Once again it's a case of great minds think alike, I was definitely leaning James here. As you mention, his speed is an X-factor, and he comes into the league from the prototypical read-option offense at the University of Oregon. Bernard Pierce, the rookie Ravens running back, is beginning to straddle the line between sleeper and genuine weapon; a big game from him could solidify that newfound fame for him.

Biggest disappointment/most overrated player

GS: I don't think he's overrated necessarily, but Vernon Davis has been having a very quiet post-season, and I think the Ravens have the athleticism in their line backing corps to keep him under wraps - I don't foresee a big game from the big tight end. I also don't really see a big game coming for Ray Rice. His understudy Pierce has seen his role increase in recent games, and I think Rice will end up playing the decoy for much of this game, running short gains on first downs to draw in the San Francisco defence.

TG: Can I just say Ray Lewis? What about Randy 'Greatest Receiver Ever' Moss? Ok, so if we're talking a normally (or supposedly) good player who's going to have an off day it's a tough one. I can't rule out either team getting a lead early on so either starting RBs could see a healthy workload. It's tempting to go for Flacco or Kaepernick here, but I see them both doing fairly well. I'll target Michael Crabtree - the Ravens did a great job keeping the Patriots' receiving weapons under wraps so I can see another quiet game for the normally exciting young receiver.

Most underrated storyline

TG: Let's be clear, as much flak as Ray Lewis is taking over this most elaborate of retirements, it's not entirely his fault. Most of us didn't expect the Ravens to get past the divisional round, much less the Patriots in the next round - if they had fallen early he wouldn't have built up this level of resentment. I equate it to watching Lord of the Rings - if you're not a fan that film never seemed to end, if you are then you lap up every minute. For the least discussed storyline I have to say the fact that both teams competing are traditionally hard nosed defensive built squads. We're so used to seeing the NFL's evolution into a passing league that to have two teams that love to pound the rock and play shut down defence (rather than air it out every down) facing off is worth celebrating far more than the fact it's the 'Harbowl'.

 

GS: I can't get over the fact that no one is mentioning that Randy Moss is still searching for his first Super Bowl ring. Despite your sarcasm in the last category, he is genuinely one of the top 5 receivers to ever play the game, and an integral part of two of the most explosive offenses in league history, the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and 2007 New England Patriots. However, his teams have always fallen short, and it would just about sum up his puzzling career for him to finally earn a ring when he's as low key a member of a team as he's ever been.

THE PICK - Who do you each want to win, who you think will win and why?

 TG: As far as who I want to win I'm a little torn - and not in the usual way I am torn at Super Bowl time where I can't decide which team I'd least like to win. I have a lot of time for both the 49ers and Ravens style of football, and as obnoxious as the Harbaughs can appear at times they are both quality coaches. I think my loyalty will rest with San Francisco on Sunday - mainly because I'm a big fan of the guts it took to bench your starting quarterback in favour of a relatively untested second year player. I mentioned in a previous post that unless they made the Super Bowl, whichever choice of quarterback Jim Harbaugh made would be the wrong one - so I'm happy to see his decision vindicated and would love to see it rewarded further.

 For who I think will win? It really is anyone's game. A lot of people will be eyeing SF as clear favourites, but I'm not convinced. I'm not a big believer in the whole 'team of destiny' concept, but the Ravens do have that magic cocktail of determination, desperation and half a jar of luck going for them. I also think they match up well on the 49ers, who struggled to keep Atlanta off the board early. SF also haven't really been under pressure to win a game in the clutch yet this post-season - if the Ravens can keep the score tight into the 4th quarter I think they can and will grab their 2nd ring. I'm going Baltimore to win 24-21.

GS: I'm rooting for the Niners. I'm finding this Ray Lewis story insufferable, particularly as it glosses over his arrest and obstruction of justice charge in deifying him. On top of that, as an avid follower of the college game, I'm excited to see the read-option on the biggest stage of them all. A win for San Francisco and their Pistol offense could see more teams adapting to the talent coming out of colleges rather than scoffing and figuring out a way to make them fit their system. I think San Francisco will win too, I just think they are much more talented across the board. In terms of your sample size, the regular season would seem to be a better indicator than their postseason success in terms of who these Ravens are. They do have momentum behind them, but the two-week gap may slow that a little, as well as the fact it's just simply tough to keep up that intensity for four straight games. In their previous two games against mobile quarterbacks this season, the Ravens lost to the Redskins and the Eagles. I see that trend continuing and think Kaepernick will give them fits, as their defence is already stretched thin due to injury. Give me San Francisco to win comfortably 28-10.

 How do you see the future panning out for the contenders, win or lose:

 GS: Whenever a team wins a Super Bowl there's a temptation to claim it's the beginning of a new era, but I do think that will be somewhat the case with a San Francisco win. They're a team built through the draft, unearthing stars where others didn't see them, and have a head coach who is quickly overtaking Bill Belichick as the consensus pick as smartest in the league. That said, Seattle are emerging as a serious force to be reckoned with, and will provide some intense competition for the Niners in their own division. Ultimately, though, win or lose I see this 49er trip to the big game as potentially the first of many.

TG: Baltimore can definitely be said to have a window closing faster than the Niners, with not only Lewis retiring but also other stars like Ed Reed getting very long in the tooth. Whilst the veteran FS has pledged to play another season at least, it's only a matter of time before injuries catch up with him. Having said that they are by no means an aged team overall, with a mostly youthful offence and nowhere near the number of imminent OAPs divisional rivals Pittsburgh have. It will be interesting to see how well they fare with a healthy squad this coming season, as they've missed the likes of Suggs, Webb, Lewis and more for lengthy periods this year. Divisionally speaking the AFC North is a relatively tough group (although I believe the NFC West will be tougher next season). The Steelers are on the decline but still a strong opponent, Cincinnati have shown a lot of promise getting to the playoffs in back to back years and the Browns are... ok the Browns aren't going to be a threat for a while. Win or lose I see the Ravens returning to the post-season next year, but going out in the divisional round. Should they win and suffer a Super Bowl hangover I can see Cincinnati winning the division ahead of them.

GS: Well that's it for our picks, and we're both looking forward to a good game. If you're in the Leicester area, the Longhorns party is always good fun - the details are linked above.

Beating the Bookies: Conference Championships

A decent week with 3/4 of the outrights and a 2:1 ratio on the spread (plus an Atlanta/Seattle push). It's a shame the Broncos failed so miserably on their final stand or it would have been consecutive perfect weeks for me calling the winners. 

As it stands we don't have the Conference show-downs many people expected, but that's all part of the beauty of the post-season!

Divisional Round:
Outright = 3-1
Spread = 2-1-1
SFBOTW - 1-0

Post-Season:
Outright = 7-1
Spread = 2-5-1
SFBOTW = 1-1


Regular Season:
Outright = 166-91 (65%)
Spread = 140-114-3 (55%)
SFBOTW = 8-8-1 (50%)
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (67%)





49ers @ Falcons +4 
As much as I enjoyed the Seahawks, I'm glad Atlanta repaid the faith I had in them (and have had all season) by beating them. I'm not glad they let their dominant lead slip so far, very nearly costing them the game. Whilst their reputation as play-off chokers may have been shrugged (for now), I still think San Francisco have too much for them in this one. Colin Kaepernick recovered spectacularly well from a bad start to lead a confident win over the Packers, and he along with the rest of the SF squad should feel very confident they can make it to the big dance. 4 points isn't too much of a margin.

49ers -4

Ravens @ Patriots -9.5

The Pats comfortably saw off the Texans (and a healthy spread) last week, but have a much tougher test in store with the visiting Ravens in a replay of last year's Championship game. For those who remember that was the game of the infamous Cundiff miss, and I fully expect Sunday night's encounter to be another close affair. I'll bite the bookies' hands off at +9.5, with the Ravens able to stretch the field vertically far more successfully than Houston did. I even like Balimore's chances enough to be bold and call the upset, especially with Gronkowski ruled out.

Ravens +9.5 (and to win) SFBOTW!!



Long Term Prospects!

Superbowl special:

I'll update you on the odds of my outside recommendations:  

Baltimore (were 18.00) = 9.00. These are still decent odds in a 4 horse race after their suprise win over Denver. New England is another tough test, but at this stage they are all I have left! WHY NOT?

*All odds accurate as of 15/01/13 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App. LTP via skybet.*

Beating the Bookies: Divisional Round

Full marks for the outrights but a very lame duck for the spread means it's a harsh awakening to the realities of post-season football. I didn't forsee Joe Webb having to start over Ponder, nor RG3 being as hobbled as he was. A shame that injuries had to blight the fortunes of two teams already, but it does mean we get the highest calibre of divisional games.

Week 16:

Outright = 4-0
Spread = 0-4
SFBOTW = 0-1

Overall:

Regular Season:
Outright = 166-91 (65%)
Spread = 140-114-3 (55%)
SFBOTW = 8-8-1 (50%)
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (67%)


Ravens @ Broncos -9.5
This is one that Denver should handle fairly comfortably, however despite the way last week turned out I'm still wary of large spreads in the play-offs, especially as we get deeper. Manning should prove too much for the Ravens defence, but I can see the visitors putting enough on the board to keep it competitive  and should aim to limit #18's time on the field by channelling a running game (plus the screens and dump offs) that worked so well versus Indy. 

Ravens + 9.5 (Broncos to win) SFBOTW! (ish)

Packers @ 49ers -3 
I've been swinging back and forth on this game since it was decided, and am still not sure I've made the right call. In situations like this it's normally prudent to take the points, but seeing how one-sided SF's demolition of the Pack was in Lambeau earlier this year, plus the home field advantage, I'll side with the Niners. Green Bay did look scary-good last week versus Minnesota though (and look like they finally have a back capable of contributing evenly to their aggressive offence), so it could well be a nail-biter. I think it comes down to whether Kaepernick can protect the football enough to allow their vaulted defence to play at its best.

49ers -3 

Hawks @ Falcons -1
Another tough one to call, as whilst I love the Hawks I think Atlanta are being unjustly disrespected due to their past play-off record (which is all but meaningless here, save to add fuel to their fire). Seattle just played a tough game versus the Skins to seal a win, but had RG3 been healthy it could have been a very different story as they were down 14-0 before he aggravated his knee. The Falcons aerial attack plays into Seattle's secondary loaded hands, but Atlanta's defence is nothing to be trifled with either. Again this game could swing either way, but at home, fresh off the bye and playing the 'nobody believes in us' card for all it's worth I feel the Falcons could finally exorcise their post-season daemons. 

Falcons -1 

Texans @ Patriots -9.5
Like the Ravens/Broncos match-up this is one that looks to be fairly one-sided, especially when you consider the nature of their late-season game. However 9.5 is a lot of points, and the Texans looked to be as dominant as ever (at least defensively) versus the Bengals. Shutting down Brady is a whole different factor though, and question marks continue to be raised as to whether Schaub is limiting their offence, especially when his main impact Sunday was an ugly pick-6. As such I expect the Pats to win this one without breaking too much of a sweat, but the more intimate knowledge these two have of each other (plus some more hard running from the ever impressive Arian Foster) should keep it just close enough.

Texans +9.5 (Pats to win)


Long Term Prospects!

Superbowl special:

I'll update you on the odds of my outside recommendations:  
Baltimore (were 21.00) = 18.00. Almost 20-1 is pretty damn good considering we're in the divisional round, however the catch is they are playing Denver this weekend. I don't see this as a wise investment even at these odds. NO
Washington (19.00) = N/A. Sadly elimination for RG3 and the skins, but they were always a long-shot.
Green Bay (8.50) = 7.50. To still have decent odds after that dominant performance is impressive. Even though I've predicted them to lose to the Niners this week, it's close enough that this is still a semi-decent bet. YES
Minnesota = (41.00). Elimination for the Vikes as predicted. Better luck next year AP.

New prospect:

Seattle = 8.00. Slightly hypocritical again as I know I've predicted them to lose this week, but like the Pack it's tight enough that this is still a good bet. I like them more than Atlanta (also 8.00) as I think they match up better with either GB/SF if they should make it past the Falcons. YES

*All odds accurate as of 07/01/13 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App. LTP via skybet.*