Beating the Bookies: Week 15

Another very average week and unfortunately another loss in my SFBOTW (sad face). I was convinced the Falcons would handle the Panthers, but it turned out to not even be close. In more shocking news, Waffle failed to pick the winner, but hit the spread spot on to grab a draw and keep the rabbits undefeated. With just three regular season weeks left I could do with a few big results to go my way, especially on my somewhat ironically named sure fire bets.

Week 14:

Outright = 9-7
Spread = 7-8-1
SFBOTW = 0-1
Waffle + Ralph = 0-0-1

Overall:

Outright = 131-78
Spread = 112-94-3 
SFBOTW = 6-7-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-0-1



Bengals @ Eagles +3
Interesting one as one of these won and one lost, and not the way round many expected those results to fall. Whilst the Bengals failed to win against the Cowboys it was still close, and whenever you have a team pushing for a WC spot this late on you have to back them over one who's season is all but meaningless. 

Bengals -3  

Giants @ Falcons -1
Eli late on in the season as the underdog, against a team that just lost to the Panthers, with everything on the line for NY? As much as dislike the man, I can't not pick him here.

Giants +1 (and to win)

Broncos @ Ravens +3
Tough one as I think the Ravens are still a quality side, and can give anyone a run for their money at home. Peyton though is a cut above, and it's very hard to not go with Denver with the form they're in. I'll double down on the brothers Manning.

Broncos -3

Packers @ Bears +2.5
The Pack demolished Chicago earlier this season. Even away and with a few injuries I don't see the record being changed here.

Packers -2.5 SFBOTW!

Redskins @ Browns +6.5
The 'skins are playing some great football right now, and whilst I like the Browns to make this competitive I think they should manage a TD.

Skins -6.5

Pretty fly for a white guy

Colts @ Texans -8.5 
Tough one, as I'm not as hot on Indy as everyone else in the world seems to be. However, Houston just lost big so I'll take a healthy 8 and a half and hope for some more 4th quarter magic from Luck.

Colts +8.5 (Texans win)

Jags @ Dolphins -7
The Jags just lost to the Jets, but with two poor teams I'll always take the points, even if the match-up isn't favourable at all.

Jags +7 (Dolphins to win)

Buccaneers @ Saints -3
Tricky one with both teams coming off tough losses. I can't decide so I'll leave it to Waffle and Ralph to bounce back with a W:

Shocking controversy here as Waffle confidently picks Tampa but Ralph clearly prefers NO. We'll go with Waffle's selection as he has been the chief chooser so far (and I'm not even sure Ralph would come out the cage if he didn't first)... but this could be a worrying sign for their team unity.

Buccaneers +3 (and to win)

Vikings @ Rams -3
AP is an absolute beast. I can only see one winner here, even if the Rams have hit a mini vein of form. 

Vikings +3 (and to win)

Lions @ Cardinals +6
The Lions have been struggling to win games of late, but haven't been playing terrible football. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have the worst offence in the league right now. 

Lions -6 

Seahawks @ Bills +4
After an epic blow out of the Cardinals I've got to ride with the Hawks, surely even a cross country trip can't slow down this freight-train?

Hawks -4 

Panthers @ Chargers -3
Winning at this point just increases the slim chance of Norv keeping is job. I almost want us to lose, but can see us grabbing a tight victory and ultimately finishing 8-8, missing out on the playoffs on a tie-breaker just like last year.

Chargers -3

Steelers @ Cowboys No Spread
Interesting match-up, and I'm undecided here. The Cowboys are on a hot streak, but surely it's just a matter of time before they shoot themselves in the foot? The Steelers just got beat down by the Chargers (lol) so it should be another even encounter. I'll side with the home team but with some huge reservations.

Cowboys 

Chiefs @ Raiders -2.5
A very un-sexy match-up between two of the worst in the league. I'll go with the hosts, but it could tip either way.

Raiders -2.5 

49ers @ Patriots -6
Tough one to call. I like the match-up SF give the Patriots, and I think this could be a thrilling encounter and potential SB preview. Two big games in as many weeks is hard to prepare for, and whilst I think NE should squeeze it I'll take the points. 

49ers +6 (Pats to win)

Jets @ Titans -1
Who knows who is going to win this 'prime-time' game, all I know is nobody will be watching.

Titans -1


Brand NEW FEATURE: Long term prospects!

I'm including a new little spot here, LTP. These could be divisional winners, Super Bowl winners, or at the start of the season a team's projected win/loss over/under. Basically anything that catches my eye, for example 2 weeks ago I laid a nice double on the Packers and Ravens to win their divisions which pays 3/1.I won't be keeping a strict record of these like I do with my spreads etc. but will keep track of their progress.

SB winners:

Right now you can get some big odds on some teams that should make the post-season, and as we all know once we get to that stage anything can happen.

I think these 3 are all worth sticking a couple on if you want somebody to cheer for come January due to the team you support being a bunch of over-paid idiots: 

Baltimore = 23.00 (£1 = £23.00) - The Ravens were a Cundiff miss away from the big dance last year, and whilst they've hit a dip in form they are good value here. However it's definitely worth waiting till after they lose to the Broncos when the odds will get even better (but they'll still win the AFC North).
Chicago = 41.00 - O-line issues but as they say D-fence wins champs
Washington = 34.00 - Outside chance for sure but they have a real shot of making the post-season and are a danger for any team.

Compare those to say Seattle who are a fairly generous 21.00, or worse still NYG at 13.00 and I think they are quite favourable. I still expect one of the big 5 (Pats, Texans, Broncos, 49ers, GB) to take the Lombardi, but at outside odds those 3 are nice value.

As always, good luck!

*Odds accurate as of 11/12/12. LTP via skybet*

Beating the Bookies: Week 14

Ouch. That was an ugly week for me, with almost nothing going the way I called it. My only saving grace is that my SFBOTW landed meaning I'm 0.500 going into the final stretch. Waffle again picks a winner meaning the rabbits are sitting pretty at 3-0, with my own accuracy being outshone by two small (ish) animals...

Week 13:

Outright = 9-7
Spread = 7-9
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0

Overall:

Outright = 122-71
Spread = 105-86-2 
SFBOTW = 6-6-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-0


Broncos @ Raiders +10.5
Very tough one as the points seem spot on. We would obviously all expect the Broncos to win comfortably but a 10.5 margin is enough to give anyone pause for thought. Denver will  be pushing to get a first round bye so every win counts at this stage. I'll take the visitors but will be staying well away from this one.

Broncos -10.5 

Rams @ Bills -3
Interesting one as both are coming off wins. I can see either side grabbing this one, and with that in mind I'll happily take the 3 points.

Rams +3 (Bills to win)

Falcons @ Panthers +3.5 
Sure, the Falcons may have the division sewn up, and typically haven't been posting huge wins, but with the Panthers coming off a loss to the Chiefs I think this is a banker. 

Falcons -3.5 SFBOTW!

Cowboys @ Bengals -3
Another tough one to call with both sides pushing for playoff spots, and both coming off wins vs the Eagles and Chargers respectively. I don't pay much attention to 'silly' records when it comes to betting, eg: Andy Reid being undefeated after the bye (which ceased being the case earlier this year), and Romo's notoriety in the month of December is another one of those over exaggerated trends. Despite that, I still like Cincy to be the better side here and improve their post-season chances.

Bengals -3

Chiefs @ Browns -4.5 
The Chiefs win an emotional game vs Carolina following Belcher's reported murder-suicide, whereas the Browns take care of business vs Oakland. I like the Browns to win here, but 4.5 is a large spread for two usually low scoring outfits. Even so, I'll bank on them to just cover. It's weird to see Cleveland with any kind of handicap, let alone one this large!

Browns -4.5 

Titans @ Colts -5
With Luck and the Colts coming off an improbable away win at Detroit I don't see why they can't comfortably handle Tennessee at home. 

Colts -5

Jets @ Jags +1
McElroy is 1-0 as a Jet, and whilst they'll probably still start Sanchez vs the Jags (they have too much $ invested in him to give up now), if he keeps performing like that it won't be too long before he goes along with Ryan. The Jaguars just got beat by the Bills, but I like them to edge another close one here.

Jags +1 (and to win)

Bears @ Vikings +2.5
Chicago slipped up against the Hawks, but should regain their balance here with a win, pushing GB to the wire for control of the NFC North.

Bears -2.5 

Eagles @ Buccs -8.5
Another big spread for the visiting Eagles, but this time I like the home side to put up enough points to cover it. Both are coming off one score losses, but the Buccs played the better side so I like Tampa so make a statement here and get back in the wildcard hunt.

Buccs -8.5 

Ravens @ Redskins -2.5
Interesting one as although I'm although I'm as big an RG3 fan as you'll find, I'm not sure they deserve to be favourites against a team of the Ravens' quality. That said, Baltimore have struggled the last 2 weeks with a narrow win over SD followed by a loss to Charlie Batch and the Steelers... I'll side with Washington but wouldn't be surprised to see either side win narrowly.

Skins -2.5

Dolphins @ 49ers -10
Another tough line with both teams coming off losses, even if the Niners' was a lot narrower and a lot more unexpected. I'm going to put it down to the Rams' having SF's number this year and peg them to win big once again. 

49ers -10 

Saints @ Giants -5
Don't let Monday's performance fool you, the Giants are still alive and kicking, and as dangerous as ever in the playoff hunt. This is the sort of game they will go out and dominate after last week's loss, and the Saints at this point have nothing to play for. 

Giants -5

Cardinals @ Seahawks -10
10 points is a huge spread for a team that runs a more conservative offense, especially when facing a top-notch defence like 'Zona's. Add to that the fact the Cardinals beat them in week 1 (albeit when they were good, and not in Seattle) and I like them to run the 'Hawks close enough, even without a QB of note.

Cardinals +10 (Seahawks to win)

Chargers @ Steelers -7.5
As much as I've given up on this team under Turner and Smith, I still like us to scrape a spread this size. 

Chargers +7.5 (Steelers to win)



Lions @ Packers -7
This one was close when they played at Detroit, but the Packers have more on the line here so should avoid the upset. 7 points though is quite a heady margin  so I'll defer to the undefeated tandem:

Coming way out of left field he makes another assertive choice. Impossible to say if Ralph concurs as Waffle is so sure of his selection he takes it home with him, displaying some impressive YAC (yards after carrot) in the process.

Lions +7 (Packers win)

Texans @ Patriots -4.5
Very tasty MNF show-down between two of the AFC's big boys. This should be a great encounter and a potential playoff preview, so I like it to be a tight one with NE just edging it.

Texans +4.5 (Patriots to win)

Good luck.

*All odds accurate as of 04/12/12 via Yahoo's 'sportacular' app*

Leicester Longhorns 8 – 26 Warwick Wolves

American Football has a way of feeling special when played under floodlights, but unfortunately for the University of Leicester Longhorns it was only once the sun had set that they began to play to their full potential. It’s a tired cliché, but this matchup of Midlands Athletic Conference foes was truly a game of two halves.

The Longhorns came into the game on the back of a frustrating game against Nottingham Trent that saw them fall just short of completing an impressive comeback, and hopes were high for a team with a lot of first year players and a first year head coach as well. It was a shame, therefore, that they ran into a Warwick team that was firing at full cylinders early in the contest. Highlights were few and far between for Leicester in the first half, though Sam Taylor found enough time to continue his early season run of interceptions before being forced out of the game due to injury. Injury also claimed Sam Schoen, whose 4.5 yards per carry were another bright spot in an otherwise disappointing half. Richard Penn’s presence on defense was also notable as he amassed 2 tackles including a tackle for loss and successfully defended 2 passes in the first half alone.

Down 20-0 at the interval, the Longhorns coaching staff made adjustments that paid dividends immediately. Leicester took the opening kick-off of the second half and began an effective and methodical drive down the field on the back of a high-tempo running game that went some way to negate the advantage of Warwick’s much larger squad. Alex Darcy’s tough running inside, often appearing to be stopped before driving the pile forward for an extra 2 or 3 yards, and Stuart Rawlings’ ability to make a man miss on the edge combined to allow Leicester to pick up large chunks of yardage that were not there in the first half. First year quarterback Joe McDougall also grew in confidence, finding Ed Spoerry for a 30 yard catch and Miguel Moore twice for a total of 40 yards receiving. It was a swing pass from McDougall to Rawlings that put the Longhorns on the goal line, from where Darcy punched home the touchdown. Rawlings then converted the 2 point attempt. Darcy would finish the day with 41 yards on 16 attempts and a touchdown, Rawlings with 30 yards on 9 attempts and the two pointer. This positive momentum encouraged the defense to also step up, as they held Warwick to only 6 points in the second half, shutting them out in the fourth quarter entirely. Tony Reeve was particularly electric, with 4 tackles, one for a loss, a sack and a forced fumble to his name, all in the second half.

Though the turnaround ultimately came too late to reverse the result, the Longhorns will be greatly encouraged by the heart shown in the second half, and the coaching staff will take confidence from the success of their adjustments. Though their record stands at 0-3 at the moment, this young team appears to grow every week and will be confident that they can use the five remaining games on the schedule to make this season a success. That starts with a game against Lincoln on Saturday 1^st December.

Team MVP: James Newman DL/OL; Offensive MVP: Alex Darcy RB; Defensive MVP: Tony Reeve LB.

Beating the Bookies: Week 13

A very middling week in terms of accuracy made sweeter by some large personal profit. A couple of pushes that help nobody are a blemish, but still better than a loss. Waffle and Ralph continue their quest to perfection - only 4 more weeks to hold on!

My goal at this point is to get my SFBOTW in profit by week 17. 


Week 12:

Outright = 11-5
Spread = 8-6-2
SFBOTW = 0-0-1
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0

Overall*:

Outright = 113-64 (64%)
Spread = 98-77-2 (56%)
SFBOTW = 5-6-1
Waffle + Ralph = 2-0

*I recalculated my wins and losses to get the % and found some errors in my favour! 

Keerrrrr-splat!

Saints @ Falcons -3.5
Very tasty Thursday night NFC South match-up. The Saints just got beat by the 49ers whereas the Falcons just managed to squeeze by the Buccs. Given how close Atlanta's wins typically are I'll take the points, and fancy the Saints to spring the upset here as well.

Saints +3.5 (and to win) 

Jaguars @ Bills -5.5
The Henne-led Jags are a different beast than when Gabbert has the reigns, and with that in mind I'll happily take a modest 6 point cushion. I still expect the Bills to win, as despite a loss at fortress Indy they are still a threat to any team.

Jags +5.5 (Bills win)

The Hawks turn on the sprinklers in an effort to generate some kind of home-field atmosphere. 

Seahawks @ Bears -4
Not at all sure about this one, as the Hawks turn to jelly when forced to leave Washington St., but the Bears haven't exactly been setting the world alight either. Whilst I expect there to be ugly play all round, with Forte out and Seattle's pass rush turning Chicago's o-line inside out, ultimately I can't justify picking the visitors until they show they can get it done on the road.

Bears -4 

Colts @ Lions -4.5
Interesting one, as the Lions have narrowly lost their last 2 games at home to strong opponents, whereas the Colts typically struggle on the road this year. I'll take the home side, but have reservations as to whether they can cover 5 points.

Lions -4.5

Vikings @ Packers -9.5
Ouch. That's a hefty spread for a team coming off a big loss to the Giants. The Vikings meanwhile just got handed their own beat-down by the Bears, so I'll be staying well away from this one. If I have to pick a team I'll side with the Packers, but I'm not convinced they'll cover.

Packers -9.5

Panthers @ Chiefs +3
Not too difficult a choice for me here. Both teams are done for 2012, but the Panthers are showing a lot more promise coming off a decent win over Philly.

Panthers -3 

Patriots @ Dolphins +9
Tough one as 9 points is a large margin, especially for a divisional game on the road. Miami just narrowly beat Seattle, but given the Pats demolition of the Jets, and the fact the Dolphins main strength is their run D (something New England won't be too concerned about) I'll back the visitors to just cover.

Patriots -9

Like watching a beautiful car-crash

Cardinals @ Jets -4.5
I think this is an attractive bet on the face of things. Sure, Arizona just (badly) lost to St. Louis... but the Jets just got torn limb from limb at home, and hopefully after that performance Arizona realise Lindley is not the answer. Whoever they start at QB, the Jets don't have anyone much better. 

Cards +4.5 (and to win)

49ers @ Rams +7
The Rams put in a strong performance vs Arizona, but I can't see that continuing when the Niners come to town. Smith or Kaep, they should take care of business by at least a TD.

49ers -7

It's awkward when your backup QB is better than their starter

Texans @ Titans +5.5
I normally don't like picking the same team back to back for my SFBOTW, but when the odds are this good I can't say no. Tennessee just lost to the Jaguars... if they can handle the Texans coming off that then I'm calling BS. 

Texans -5.5 SFBOTW!

Buccaneers @ Broncos -8
Interesting one as despite the narrowest of losses to Atlanta the Buccs have looked very strong. Denver, meanwhile, just struggled more than anticipated in beating Kansas City. Despite this I'm going to back Manning to win by more than 8, especially at home.

Broncos -8

Bengals @ Chargers +1
Another tough one, as the Chargers lose a heart-breaker in OT to the Ravens, whereas the Bengals take down the flailing Raiders at home. This could be a key AFC wildcard decider for both sides, and with that in mind I'll leave it to our resident soothsayers:

Waffle again makes a decisive (if highly controversial) selection, proving he is equally happy to pick the away side. Ralph backs him up without hesitation, clearly ashamed of his attitude last week. 

Bengals -1

Steelers @ Ravens -8
Big Ben confirmed out as per expectations. 8 points is huge spread considering games between these two are usually slug-fests, but when you look at how poorly Pittsburgh played last week I really can't see any other than a Raven domination here. 

Ravens -8

Browns @ Raiders +1
Interesting match-up here between two of the perennial bottom-feeders. With the Browns undergoing something of a renaissance many will like them to pull off the away win here. Beating Charlie Batch is all well and good, but I see this as the sort of game either could grab. Despite that, 8 turnovers (!) and some hard running from T-Rich last week sees the Browns enter as clear favourites in this once.

Browns -1

Eagles @ Cowboys -9.5
9.5 is a huge spread for a divisional rivalry between two sides who at least talent wise are evenly matched. I expect the Cowboys the win, but not by that much even with the Eagles struggling mightily. 

Eagles +9.5 (Cowboys win)

Giants @ Redskins +2.5
Tough one to call as both played at a high level last week, and still everything at stake in the NFC East. I'll go with the Skins, as their earlier game at the Meadowlands could have gone either way, and I really really really don't want them to lose this one.

Redskins +2.5 (and to win)

As always, good luck winning large amounts of cash.

*All odds accurate as of 27/11/2012 via Yahoo's sportacular app*

Beating the Bookies: Week 12

An outstanding week outright and a solid one on the spread means my record continues to grow more and more respectable. Also a big shout out to the rabbits for nailing their first ever selection under the bright lights of Thursday night football. 

However, a lot of those games went way closer than I would have liked (I'm looking at you, Mason Crosby), so hopefully this week's gambling will be smoother sailing.

Turkey week means we get triple Thursday night football (and at a reasonable hour), which is something we can all be thankful for.

Week 11:

Outright = 13-1
Spread = 9-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0

Overall:

Outright = 92-69
Spread = 91-70
SFBOTW = 5-6
Waffle + Ralph = 1-0



Texans @ Lions +3
Even though the Lions held GB close and the Texans gave up huge points to the Henne-led Jags, I still think Houston should win this one comfortably. Let's hope Detroit don't put up as much of a fight as they did in my previous SFBOTW.

Texans -3 SFBOTW

Redskins @ Cowboys -3.5
RG3 just put up a near perfect 4 TD game against the Eagles, whereas the Cowboys just struggled to see off Cleveland. Granted, the Cowboys defence is better than Philly's, but I'm still loving the Redskins at these odds.

Skins +3.5 (and to win)

Patriots @ Jets +6.5
Brady just gave Luck a master-class in Elite QBing, and whilst the Jets surprised me by beating the Rams in St. Louis I still think the Pats have more than enough to give NY a divisional walloping. Gronk's injury is a big thorn in their side though, so it will be interesting to see what Belichick concocts in his lengthy absence. 

Pats -6.5

Vikings @ Bears -2.5
With or without Cutler I'll go with the Bears' defence to hold on in this one. By no means a clear cut game though with the thrashing SF just handed them. 

Bears -2.5

Raiders @ Bengals -9.5 
Whilst I'm pretty sure the Bengals will win this, it's a tough one to call as 9.5 is a hefty spread. With that in mind I think I'll leave this to everyone's favourite dynamic duo:

Waffle again makes an assertive choice, and who can blame him? After last week his confidence must be sky high, but Ralph seems reluctant to back him up. Word has it he fancies the Raiders to cover, so let's hope this tension doesn't create a divide in the hive mind.

Bengals -9.5

Steelers @ Browns +1
Another tricky one as the Steelers are clearly in a QB quandry, whereas the Browns have been playing at a reasonable level in recent weeks. With a negligible spread I'll take the Steelers, but wouldn't be at all surprised if the upset happened.

Steelers -1

Wasn't Leftwich in Forrest Gump?

Bills @ Colts -3
Whilst last week's results might incline some to favour Buffalo I still love the Colts (at home) to give anyone a game. 3 points isn't too much of a stretch either, and I'm confident Luck can rebound from their big defeat to New England.

Colts -3 

Titans @ Jags +3
Interesting one given the Jaguars' shockingly good performance vs Houston. The Titans though looked good before the bye, so until Jacksonville show me that wasn't a fluke I'm going to err on the side of caution and take Tennessee.

Titans -3 

Broncos @ Chiefs +10
Even 10 points shouldn't be too much for the Broncos to cover in this one. They just took down the Chargers comfortably and the Chiefs just got dismantled once again by Cincy. It could get very ugly. Also Brady Quinn has been named starter... which is usually license to put your car/house/most attractive female relative on the other team.

Broncos -10

Seahawks @ Dolphins +3
Whilst the Hawks are clearly a far better team at home than away, the Dolphins have lost 2 straight, and I fancy Seattle to make a statement here, with Wilson showing Tannehill who the 3rd best rookie QB really is.

Seahawks -3

Falcons @ Buccs +1
The Buccaneers are not a team to be trifled with, but I can't look past Atlanta at no spread. They've had their ups and downs, and throwing 5 picks last week is not a good sign, but they should have enough quality to find a way to win again here. Julio's injury status is a concern though, so may be wise to leave this 'till we get confirmation.

Falcons -1

Ravens @ Chargers +1
This is definitely worth putting a lot of money on. Sure, Flacco and the Ravens don't tend to do so well on the road, but San Diego have been just awful offensively in recent weeks. Over / under on retarded Rivers' picks will be about 5.

Ravens -1 

Better ask for your P45 now.

Rams @ Cardinals -1
Coming off last week's performances it would be insulting to Arizona to not pick them here. The Rams were very disappointing vs the Jets whereas the Cardinals gave me the close game I looked for against Atlanta. 

Cardinals -1

49ers @ Saints No Spread
Tough one as the Saints are very much on the comeback trail, but the 49ers looked red hot on Monday night vs Chicago so it would feel wrong to pick against them and their offensive wizardry.

49ers

Packers @ Giants -2.5
I'm not even going to hesitate on this one. The Packers will dominate the Giants, who have been incredibly sub par the last few weeks. This one has a very bitter recent history, so should be great viewing. The extra points are just a nice thanksgiving bonus.

Packers +2.5 (and to win) 

Panthers @ Eagles -2.5
The Eagles are in absolute disarray, so I have to side with the Panthers, though admittedly  they aren't in much better shape. It'll be the classic case of whichever team screws up less.

Panthers +2.5 (and to win)

Apologies for the lateness of this one - a lot of the lines were delayed due to questionable QB injury status. Good luck.

*All odds accurate as of 22/11/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' app*