Wednesday, 2 January 2013

Beating the Bookies: Wildcard Preview & End of Season Review

One of my best weeks outright but only half the spread is a little disappointing to end the season, but my overall record for this year is still good. 

Finishing at exactly 55% on the spread means I am profitable. Some very quick maths tells me that if I had put £1 on each game every week on the spread (assuming a 16 games/week, 16 week season, 1.91 odds) then I would have made 81p profit every week, totaling £12.96 for the year!! 
Of course I didn't bet like that (and yes I did still have a very successful year on the NFL), but it's encouraging to know my methods (or lack of) were accurate enough to turn a profit, albeit a small one. 


There is no simple way to judge how much I could have made on outrights at 65%, but only 3/25 of the NFL.com analysts participating in their 'weekly pick-em' game scored higher (Mark Sessler 69%, Nicole Zaloumis 68% and Kareem Copeland 66%).


All in all a very decent year, and I'll continue giving a more detailed breakdown of some interesting tendencies plus my predictions for the play-offs below. My only regret is that my SFBOTW ended up 8-8 (1 point away from a push in the Chi-Det game!). 


Week 16:


Outright = 13-3

Spread = 8-8
SFBOTW = 0-1
Animal Corner = 1-0

Overall:


Outright = 166-91 (65%)

Spread = 140-114-3 (55%)
SFBOTW = 8-8-1 (50%)
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (67%)


Season Trends:


Before we move on to the post-season let's peer into how the year went in more detail. All season I've been keeping track of who I bet on and the consequences - not to try and straighten out any personal leanings but simply as it turns up some amusing and intriguing tendencies

I gave every 'win' +1 and 'loss' -1, meaning that if I was perfect for team X all year they could have +16 (or vice versa). I've also kept track of how teams have fared when I bet for them or bet against them (F/A), and how often I've picked them! This was all done according to the spread at the time.



Top 3 Least Accurate Teams:


The teams I found the least reliable. Hang your heads in shame!


T3. St. Louis Rams (-4)

The Rams were an up and down team in 2012, but I was definitely too down on them through-out the year. At +1F and -4A I should have bet on them far more often, but at a harsh 5-11 ratio I clearly refused to see the light.


T3. Detroit Lions (-4)
The Lions are the antithesis to St. Louis - a team I kept backing when I shouldn't have. At an 8-8 ratio I was measured in my support of them, but with -5F to +1A they did not repay even my guarded trust. 

T3. Arizona Cardinals (-4)

A team I fell in love with early on and failed to realise they had turned terrible until it was too late. I backed them solidly at 11-5 but clearly shouldn't have at -3F, -1A. Having said that they were a case of 'wrong time, wrong place' as often when I did bet against them they would pull it out the bag.


2. Seattle Seahawks (-6)

I should have backed the Seahawks more often, although they still had a positive 9-7 ratio of my support. What really hurt is that all 7 times I picked against them they fell short! (+1F, -7A). Clearly I should have had more faith in the Hawks, but part of the problem was their late season transformation from a low-scoring offence to a team capable of blow outs. 

1. Carolina Panthers (-8)

You're killing me Carolina! -8 is ugly, especially as they were similarly difficult to pin down for or against at -3F, -5A. I couldn't decide all year on this team at an 8-8 ratio, but it did seem at times that whatever I picked them to do they would do the opposite! 


Top 3 Most Accurate Teams:


My gold stars of consistency go to the following...


3. Houston Texans (+7)

Unsurprisingly the Texans wind up in the mix for the most consistent performers. They've been strong all year (until a late dip) with a lot of spread destroying blow outs to their name. I backed them 12-4 with a +5F, +2A total, and I'd do it all again.  

2. Buffalo Bills (+8)
I was surprised to see the Bills finish this high as I've had them in my head as an inconsistent team this year. Whilst that may be the case in the league they been very respectable on the spread at +3F, +5A. I clearly realised early on they were not a good team, only backing them 5-11 - but often it's better to back against a team you know is bad rather than for one you think is good.

1. Tennessee Titans (+10)

Hats off to the Titans who've really had a stormer for me at an incredible +10. Even more impressive when they've done it +5F, +5A with a ratio of 7-9. The polar opposite of the Panthers, I've had my finger on the pulse of the music city all year and I just wish they were in the post-season so I could continue dancing to their winning beat. 


Top 3 Most Disregarded Teams:
Those I've backed against the most this season, justified?


T3. Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings (4-12)

A vote of no confidence for these 3, somewhat unjustified (you would think) in the case of the Boys and Vikings?

Cowboys: 0F, +4A = +4. I think the line speaks for itself. No regrets being so harsh on Dallas.

Chiefs: -2F, +4A = +2. Wish I had picked against them more often!
Vikings: +2F, -2A = 0. Maybe I was a little down on the Vikings. Duly noted. 

2. New York Jets (3-13)

It's probably not surprisingly to see the Jets in this list, who's poor season has astonishingly been fairly average when you consider all the injuries, upheavals and QB controversy surrounding them. Ryan rightly keeps his job, but at 0F, +3A I clearly wasn't being overly critical in my estimations.  

1. Miami Dolphins (1-15)

Shocked to see the Dolphins as my least favoured team? I was a little as well, and to be honest to have only picked them once is quite poor on my part. I should definitely have shown them a little more faith at times as they finished +1F, 0A, but to still be positive with support (or lack of) so one sided shows they were still pretty dire most of the season.


Top 3 BFFs:


Teams I couldn't help myself backing all year, whether it was based on form or band-wagoning I'll let you decide. 


3. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)

Not surprising to see a dominant team like the Falcons backed this often, as despite their winning season they've rarely been favoured with a large spread. Finishing at +3F, 0A is fairly decent, but I could have been more prudent in my support.

2. Washington Redskins (14-2)

I'm sure some of you expected to see the Skins as #1 in this category, and it was certainly close. Despite my blind love for RG3, it's been a crush that has ultimately paid off - finishing at a solid +6F, 0A, (plus a 7 game winning streak). Roll on into the playoffs!

1. Indianapolis Colts (15-1)

I didn't expect the Colts to end up as my favourite team to back this season, and with a very average record at +3F, 0A they probably shouldn't have been. Still, it's hard to argue with a positive result, and when they've had such a remarkable winning season it's not undeserved.


Right, without further ado on to the playoffs!

Wildcard Predictions: 


Bengals @ Houston -4.5

These should all be great games, but this is one of the more intriguing of the bunch. A team definitely coming into form opposed to one on a 2 game slide against underdogs. I have to take the points here.

Bengals +4.5 (Texans to win)




Vikings @ Packers -9.5

I'm scratching my head as to why the Pack deserve to be almost 10 point favourites against a team that just beat them. I think GB will win but I can't turn down a spread that heady.

Vikings +9.5 (Packers to win) SFBOTW!





Colts @ Ravens -6.5
Tough to call this one so I'm going to err with the spread. The Colts just beat the Texans so should  be confident they can spring an upset. 

Colts +6.5 (Ravens to win)


Seahawks @ Redskins +2.5

My favourite match-up of the week but it's a shame one of these two has to go home empty handed as they are the two most entertaining teams in the league right now. This could swing either way, and if it was in Seattle I'd have no qualms taking them up to -6.5, but in Washington I don't feel I can turn down points. 

Redskins +2.5 (Seahawks to win)






Long Term Prospects!


Superbowl special:


I'll update you on the odds of my outside recommendations:  


Baltimore (were 21.00) = 21.00. No change for Baltimore so I wouldn't advice against a flutter on the Ravens at these odds, who should beat the Colts this weekend. MAYBE.
Chicago (61.00) = N/A. Elimination for Chicago and I hope you took my advice last week and avoided betting.  
Washington (26.00) = 19.00. The Skins' odds continue to fall, and it's probably not worth it at this stage with a tough game against Seattle looming. NO.

Green Bay (6.50) 8.50. The Packers odds rise again to 8.5, and I definitely think it's worth sticking something on them. Don't let last week's loss to the Vikings fool you - they are still not a team to be trifled with. YES.
Minnesota = (81.00) = 41.00. Even though the odds are still good I really wouldn't recommend more than a couple of quid on the Vikings. YES (Small).


*Odds accurate as of 2/01/13 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App. LTP odds via skybet.*  









Friday, 28 December 2012

Beating the Bookies: Week 17

An identical (but solid) week of results to last time means I'm in a strong position going into the final week of the regular season. It's disappointing for the year's football to be almost over for many teams (and it really has flown by) but I'm excited for the post-season, which looks set to be a great one with so many strong teams competing. Most of the divisions are already locked up, but with a week of pure divisional games it should still be a fantastic close to a memorable regular season.

Week 16:


Outright = 11-5
Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 1-0
Waffle + Ralph = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 153-88
Spread = 132-106-3 
SFBOTW = 8-7-1
Waffle + Ralph = 3-2-1



Falcons @ Buccaneers +3.5

With nothing to gain from this match win or lose, I expect Atlanta to rest their stars early on leading to a Buccs win.

Buccs +3.5 (and to win)

Jets @ Bills -3.5

McElroy did not have an ideal start against the Chargers suffering 11 sacks, and I can't see him getting a much calmer ride in Buffalo. The Jets beat them very convincingly earlier in the season, but a lot has changed since then.

Bills -3.5


Ravens @ Bengals -2.5

Tough one to call as both looked very good last Sunday, and the NFC North has already been decided. Whilst Baltimore will have their foot off the gas a little I still like the points here.

Ravens +2.5 (Bengals win)




Bears @ Lions +3

Megatron has already broken Rice's receiving record so the Lions really have nothing to play for, whereas Chicago will be hungry to secure a post-season berth. Bears all day.

Bears -3 SFBTOW! (Apologies for the repeat picking against Detroit, but they are making it easy).




Texans @ Colts +7

Very interesting one with the Texans suffering a surprise loss to the Vikings last week. I still like them to win but 7 points is too much of a stretch against Indy, who have been strong at home all year.

Colts +7 (Texans win)


Panthers @ Saints  -5

Tough one as both have been playing fairly well lately, I like the Saints to squeeze it at home though, even at a solid spread.

Saints -5


Eagles @ Giants -7.5


The Giants desperately need a win, but after burning me the last two weeks I'm reluctant to back them again. I'll give them a vote of no confidence and hand over to the fat boys... or at least I would if they weren't on holiday. Toothless can step up to the plate:




Let's just say she was NOT the model professional Waffle is when it comes to choosing a winner promptly and decisively... but nevertheless I'm taking that scuttle as a well thought out pick for NY. 


Giants -7.5


Browns @ Steelers -10.5

With both teams resting players the Steelers should take care of business, but 10.5 is too much for me to be comfortable with.

Browns +10.5 (Steelers win)



Jaguars @ Titans -4

The Titans are surprisingly my most reliable team this year (more on this next week), and I feel fairly secure in picking them here.

Titans -4 


Packers @ Vikings +3.5

Tough one as the Vikings pulled the upset over the Texans, and AP will be rushing hard for the record books with a huge game needed. However Green Bay just blew out Tennessee so I think they can grab a close win here.

Packers -3.5


Dolphins @ Patriots -10


The Pats have been sub-par the last couple of weeks, but should bounce back here to blow Miami out and lift their spirits just before the start of the post-season.


Pats 10


Chiefs @ Broncos -16


As loath as I am to ever bet on the Chiefs, 16 points is too much for me to comfortably take. I'll be staying well against from this one.


Chiefs +16 (Broncos to win)


Cardinals @ 49ers -16.5

Another huge margin, and as much as the Niners need to win to stay top of the West I can see the Cardinal's elite defence keeping them closer than this mammoth spread (even if their O will be held to next to nothing once more). 

Cards +16.5 (49ers win)




Rams @ Seahawks -10

10 points is a lot, but when you've been putting up the kind of numbers Seattle have I fancy them as more than capable of finishing the season very strongly, especially at home against a divisional opponent.

Seahawks -10


Raiders @ Chargers -10
Don't be surprised to see a big Chargers win here, with Oakland starting Terrelle Pryor. I expect another confident albeit meaningless performance for Turner's last game in charge.

Chargers -10



Cowboys @ Redskins -3

This should be a fantastic game to watch, and whilst I think the bookies have the spread spot on at 3 points I'm not going to turn my back on RG3 and the Skins now. All in baby.

Redskins -3 



Long term prospects!

Superbowl special:

I'll update you on the odds of my outside recommendations:  

Baltimore (were 29.00) = 21.00. That was a much needed win over the Giants, but this is not a team worth betting on at this price. NO.
Chicago (81.00) = 67.00. With a win their odds have fallen, so hopefully any Bears fans chose last week to back their team. I wouldn't recommend it now even at this price with the NFC heating up the way it is, NO. 
Washington (26.00) = Still 26.00. I'd probably avoid betting much on the Skins now. Yes they'll very likely make the playoffs, but aren't likely to go far. Sticking at 26.00 after another win is attractive for an entertaining couple of quid though. YES (small).  

Green Bay (8.50) = 6.50. Last week was definitely the time to bet on the Packers, and the odds will likely keep decreasing from here on in. I would never bet on a SB winner at less than 7.00 as it's such a crap-shoot. NO. 


New prospect - I wanted to put Seattle here but at just 10.00 it is a terrible bet, so instead I'll go with a rank outsider who have a decent chance at making a run:


Minnesota = 81.00. They have their odds cut out at getting far in the post-season (if they even make it), but with AP the beast he is they have a chance to beat anybody, as shown by their victory over Houston. YES (Small).


Good luck.


*Lines accurate as of 28/12/12 via Sportacular. LTP odds from skybet.*

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Half Term Report

With the Premier League season nearing its midpoint it would seem appropriate to check in on how each team is faring in relation to their expectations. Disagree? Let me know in the comments.

Arsenal

Grade: B
Current Position: 5th
Best Result: 5-2, Tottenham Hotspur (H)
Worst Result: 0-2, Swansea City (H)

Overview: Perhaps a surprising grade, given the turmoil that the club seem to be engulfed in. However, that "crisis" stems from the shift in ambition at Arsenal, and the truth is the Gunners have set themselves up well for a run at a top four finish, i.e. where most would have had them pegged back in August. Debates about whether Arsenal should be happy with these expectations are a different matter, but given the squad at Arsene Wenger's disposal, that is the best that most could hope for this incarnation of Arsenal.

Wenger wearing a coat nearly as long as his trophy drought.

Aston Villa

Grade: C
Current Position: 14th
Best Result: 3-1, Liverpool (A)
Worst Result: 1-4, Southampton (A)

Overview: For much of the early part of the season, Paul Lambert's men looked like relegation fodder. Thrashings by the two Manchester clubs could easily have qualified for their worst result, but losing 4-1 to fellow strugglers Southampton was a particularly low point. A season that was all doom and gloom has borne new hope in recent weeks, as Villa have seemed to have settle on a side and a strategy that works for them. After beating Liverpool at Anfield at the weekend, they will be one to watch over the festive period. Christian Benteke looks a good buy, and if the Villains are able to hit a good run of form they could well see themselves in the top half of the table by season's end - a finish that could provide the foundations for a rise back to where a club of this stature should be.

Chelsea

Grade: B-
Current Position: 3rd
Best Result: 4-2, Tottenham Hotspur (A)
Worst Result: 2-3, Manchester United (H)

Overview: Picking a best result proved harder than you would think, given the apparent ease with which Chelsea asserted their dominance at the beginning of the season. Wins away at London rivals Arsenal and Spurs seemed the pick of the bunch, and I gave the nod to the Blues' win at White Hart Lane given the way they rebounded after losing their lead. Flying high at that point of the season, and the pick of many as title contenders, the match that I've chosen as their worst result, the home loss to Manchester United, proved the turning point of their season. Since then Chelsea have lost a manager, a Champions League berth, a Club World Cup final and the initiative in their league campaign, sitting 13 points off the lead (albeit with a game in hand). It's going to be a tough next six months for Rafa Benitez.

Everton

Grade: A-
Current Position: 6th
Best Result: 1-0, Manchester United (H)
Worst Result: 1-2, Reading (A)

Overview: Predicted by many to be heading for a mid-table finish before the season, Everton shocked United in the first round of fixtures of the new season and have seldom slowed since. Buoyed by the emergence of Marouane Fellaini as a true star of the Premier League, David Moyes' men have been the model of consistency, losing only twice and proving tough opposition for even the biggest clubs. That said, the Toffees have arguably drawn more than they should, missing out on a potential opportunity to consolidate their good form into something more tangible than their current position in the table - always a worry with a squad as apparently thin as Everton's. However, as notoriously slow starters, the blue half of Liverpool will be hoping this strong first half will prove the foundation for a top four finish.

Marouane approves.

Fulham

Grade: C-
Current Position: 13th
Best Result: 5-0, Norwich City (H)
Worst Result: 0-3, West Ham United (A)

Overview: Martin Jol's team are a frustrating outfit that appear able to win or lose to anyone in the league from week to week - though some of this can be attributed to the loss of two key figures from their previous campaign, with Clint Dempsey and Mousa Dembélé both moving across the city to Spurs. The arrival of Dimitar Berbatov has provided some hope, with the Bulgarian recapturing some of the form that preceded his big money move to Old Trafford, though not enough to completely stave off the Cottagers' demons. For a club that has a squad worthy of a top half finish, if not higher, Fulham's current league position is a great disappointment. True to their bipolar tendencies, if Fulham can find some form and consistency they could end up pushing for Europe, though a particularly long bad run of results could see them veering dangerously close to the relegation fight.

Liverpool

Grade: F
Current Position: 12th
Best Result: 5-2, Norwich City (A)
Worst Result: 1-3, Aston Villa (H)

Overview: Liverpool's league performance last season was meant to represent the nadir of their rebuilding process, but the Reds have struggled mightily this term. This Liverpool side are defined by dysfunction, with baffling personnel decisions (entering the season with Luis Suarez as their only recognised striker, reportedly alienating emerging talent Raheem Sterling through contract negotiations, telling Stewart Downing he can leave before the transfer window has opened) begetting inconsistent results. With manager Brendan Rodgers appearing increasingly out of touch (he recently claimed Liverpool are still aiming for second place) Liverpool fans could be forgiven for fearing the worst from this campaign.

It's been that kind of season at Anfield.

Manchester City

Grade: B+
Current Position: 2nd
Best Result: 5-0, Aston Villa (H)
Worst Result: 2-3, Manchester United (H)

Overview: Though still in second place, City have failed to regain the swagger with which they stormed through much of last season. Currently 6 points adrift, to complete consecutive title wins will prove a tough prospect, if not impossible. If the blue moon is to continue to shine atop the Premier League skyline, Roberto Mancini's men will have to improve their results against those clubs around them, with a win against Spurs their only success against any of the current top 6 (P5 W1 D3 L1). However, if the clichéd "mark of a champion" is to win a games in which you have not been the best team, then City can be seen to be achieving something like the long-term variety of that idiom, still maintaining a title challenge when surely their best form must lay ahead of them.

Manchester United

Grade: A-
Current Position: 1st
Best Result: 3-2, Manchester City (A)
Worst Result: 0-1, Norwich City (A)

Overview: Another year, another season where Manchester United sit top of the Premiership without ever truly sparkling for any prolonged period of time. These Red Devils do not strike the same fear into the hearts of their opposition as previous iterations, but they are still getting the results. Robin van Persie has settled into the side without any hint of a struggle, and for United fans the hope will be for more of the same come the new year. Though Sir Alex Ferguson's team should be wary of City hitting their stride, much of the same can be said about this United team. Should Rooney and van Persie find their best form at the same time, there's little hope for the rest of the league, even with a defence that has seemed as leaky as United's has at times.

Newcastle United

Grade: F
Current Position: 15th
Best Result: 2-1, Tottenham Hotspur (H)
Worst Result: 0-2, Southampton (A)

Overview: In many ways, Newcastle's fall from grace could have been predicted. For a squad as thin at the top as the Magpies' to get through last season unscathed was something of a stroke of luck, and with  Europa League commitments to consider this term, players were going to start dropping at some point. Long term injuries to Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye have left Alan Pardew's side bereft of creativity, and spells on the sidelines for Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor at different parts of the season have contributed to a defence both unsettled and unsettling for the Toon's supporters. The prescribed tonic would be to add depth in the January transfer window, and to hold on to Demba Ba. Even if these ambitions are fulfilled, this season is already looking like a failure on Tyneside after the heroics of the last campaign.

Norwich City

Grade: A
Current Position: 8th
Best Result: 1-0, Manchester United (H)
Worst Result: 0-5, Fulham (A)

Overview: Assumed in August to be relegation fodder, Chris Hughton has the Canaries far exceeding expectations. After overcoming a slow start to the campaign, Norwich have emerged as a formidable opponent at Carrow Road, emerging victorious from matches with both Manchester United and Arsenal. Hughton has a highly motivated team of hard-working players, with Anthony Pilkington, Wes Hoolahan and Robert Snodgrass particularly impressing, along with summer signing Sebastien Bassong. However, Norwich are sure to hit a rough patch at some point, and 8th seems an unsustainable position for a team of such limited resources. The good news is that they may have already done enough to ensure their place in the division for another year, which even the most optimistic of fans of the Yellows would have admitted was this season's primary objective.

There's certainly cause for celebration at Carrow Road.

Queens Park Rangers

Grade: D
Current Position: 19th
Best Result: 2-1, Fulham (H)
Worst Result: 1-3, Southampton (H)

Overview: After leaving it to the last day of the season to ensure their participation in this year's campaign, Q.P.R. enlisted the help of twelve new players over the summer to avoid the same situation this time around. It didn't work. Having taken until the 17th game of the season to record their first win, the opening half of this campaign has not been kind to the R's. So surely an F grade would be fitting? Not quite. In jettisoning Mark Hughes and replacing him with Harry Redknapp, steps seem to be being taken in the right direction. With Redknapp at the helm, a squad who have under-performed to this point will undoubtedly begin to find some of the form that gives some of its names such stature on paper. Funds will undoubtedly be available in the coming transfer window for Harry to work some of his magic (just don't call him a wheeler-dealer); it's certainly possible that Rangers' darkest days are behind them.

Reading

Grade: C-
Current Position: 20th
Best Result: 2-1, Everton (H)
Worst Result: 2-3, Wigan Athletic (A)

Overview: Though bottom of the league, it is tough to see the season so far as a failure for the Royals, as most expected them to struggle. If anything, credit must be given for the way in which Brian McDermott's side have put the fear into many of the bigger names in the division. Reading have certainly proved they are able to score goals at this level, the problems have been at the other end of the pitch. Unable to match the spending power of those clubs around them at the foot of the table, the outlook isn't particularly rosy for the Royals. The hope is that they will continue to provide the same entertainment value as they have so far.

Southampton

Grade: C
Current Position: 17th
Best Result: 2-0, Newcastle United (H)
Worst Result: 1-6, Arsenal (A)

Overview: Given a somewhat lenient grade for much the same reason as Reading, Southampton find themselves about where many would expect them to be at this point, if not higher. Also like Reading, Southampton have shown the ambition to play attacking football, and have been successful on occasion. The worry is whether the Saints have the consistency or the currency to maintain their current spot just above the relegation zone - but up to this point the season has been something of a success for Nigel Adkins' side.

Stoke City

Grade: B
Current Position: 9th
Best Result: 1-1, Manchester City (H)
Worst Result: 2-4, Manchester United (A)

Overview: Stoke City have become a model of consistency in recent years, with Tony Pulis' side ignoring the critics of their physical style and continuing to provide effective, reliable results. The envy of many clubs of a similar stature, the Potters find themselves in the top half of the table without much fanfare - though it is easy to see why: having not scored more than two goals, or conceded more than two (with the exception of their loss to Manchester United), Stoke have hardly been an exciting team for the neutral over this campaign. Not that Pulis, or the Stoke fans, particularly care - they'll happily take another top half finish. There's little reason at this point of the season to presume they won't achieve it.

Sunderland

Grade: D
Current Position: 16th
Best Result: 3-1, Fulham (A)
Worst Result: 2-4, West Bromwich Albion (H)

Overview: After his appointment last season, Martin O'Neill immediately set about making Sunderland hard to beat - a recurring feature of his teams over the years. He achieved this, and the Black Cats went on to draw many of their ensuing fixtures, appearing to be building a foundation for further improvement this term. Therefore it is startling that they have taken a step backwards. Despite the big summer additions of Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson, Sunderland find themselves in a relegation battle they had hoped to avoid this time around. Fletcher has not disappointed, but O'Neill needs a bigger contribution from those around him, particularly Johnson and Stephane Sessegnon, who has failed to sparkle as brightly as he did last season. If the performance levels don't rise, the Black Cats could find themselves running out of lives quickly.

Swansea City

Grade: B+
Current Position: 10th
Best Result: 2-0, Arsenal (A)
Worst Result: 0-3, Everton (H)

Overview: After a summer that saw Swansea lose their manager Brendan Rodgers, and several key players in Scott Sinclair, Joe Allen, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Steven Caulker, many expected the Premiership's lone Welsh representative to come crashing back to Earth after a surprising first campaign. Instead, Michael Laudrup has the Swans sitting comfortably in mid-table, with their sights set higher, quite realistically. This has been achieved without sacrificing any of the style that has seen Swansea become the critics' darling, unearthing a rough diamond in Michu - undoubtedly the bargain signing of the season, a snip at £2 million from Rayo Vallecano despite his 15 goals in La Liga last season. Seemingly the only obstacle to the Swans' steady ascent would be a rash of injuries to key players, as there is not a great deal of depth in the squad.

A man who has clearly never heard Tragedy by Steps.


Tottenham Hotspur

Grade: B
Current Position: 4th
Best Result: 3-2, Manchester United (A)
Worst Result: 2-5, Arsenal (A)

Overview: Many would have been forgiven for expecting Spurs to endure something of a rebuilding year, having lost Harry Redknapp, Luka Modric, Rafael van der Vaart and Ledley King in the space of one summer, but Andre Villas-Boas' side find themselves in fourth place without ever truly hitting the heights this term. This Tottenham side have been patchy, with runs of good and bad form masking the true identity of this new incarnation as it finds its feet. New signing Mousa Dembélé has proved vital to the rhythm of this Spurs team, and his inclusion would seem vital to the maintaining of a position in the top four. Despite the turmoil that has accompanied the lower ebbs of Tottenham's season, they appear well positioned to achieve this ambition.

West Bromwich Albion

Grade: A
Current Position: 7th
Best Result: 2-1, Chelsea (H)
Worst Result: 1-3, Swansea City (A)

Overview: With many predicting a lower half to mid-table finish in the wake of Roy Hodgson's departure to take charge of England, the Baggies' ascent into the upper echelons of the division has been one of the surprises of the season. Steve Clarke's side are effective and ambitious, tough to beat but dangerous on the counter attack. With Shane Long particularly impressive, West Brom have sat in or around the top four for much of the campaign. Though currently enduring a rough patch of form, the Baggies are still well set up to push for European football, a feat many thought impossible before the season.

...and the Baggies haven't looked back since.

West Ham United

Grade: B+
Current Position: 11th
Best Result: 3-1, Chelsea (H)
Worst Result: 1-2, Wigan Athletic (A)

Overview: Sitting in mid-table in their first season back in the Premiership, West Ham look set to defy their recent status as a "yo-yo club" and achieve safety from relegation. Their direct, physical style under Sam Allardyce has the Hammers sitting pretty in mid-table, having risen into the European qualification spots in moments of particularly high form. West Ham have achieved this despite a slew of injuries (most notably to the big arrival of the summer, Andy Carroll), suggesting that this good run is unlikely to tail off. With a mid-table finish appearing so likely, this season can be seen as a great success for a newly promoted team - a fact easy to forget given the status of the club and the ease with which they have re-assimilated themselves to life in the top flight.

Wigan Athletic

Grade: C-
Current Position: 18th
Best Result: 1-0, Tottenham Hotspur (A)
Worst Result: 0-4, Manchester United (A)

Overview: At what point do Wigan's results before March get disregarded? With Roberto Martinez having masterminded a seemingly impossible escape from relegation in two consecutive years, the Latics' current position feels irrelevant. It is frustrating that the club so regularly fail to build on the positive momentum they accumulate at the end of each campaign, leading many to wonder whether this is the year that Wigan's luck runs out. At this point I would hesitate to prognosticate either way, Martinez has won the benefit of the doubt from me when it comes to the run-in, but it's hard to tell whether the poor performances of this year's team to this date will undermine him.

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Beating the Bookies: Week 16

A solid week of predicting amongst a week of blow outs in the NFL. It's almost refreshing after all the upsets and narrow results to see teams flexing their muscles on Statement Sunday, and with the play-offs a mere fortnight away it should be an exciting end to the 2012 season. Unfortunately though sad news as Waffle slips up and suffers his first loss. Let's hope he can recover in time (and maybe listen to some brotherly advice) for this penultimate week of the regular season.

Week 15:

Outright = 11-5

Spread = 10-6
SFBOTW = 1-0

Waffle + Ralph = 0-1

Overall:


Outright = 142-83

Spread = 122-100-3 
SFBOTW = 7-7-1

Waffle + Ralph = 3-1-1



Falcons @ Lions +4
After Atlanta's demolition of the Giants and the Lions' lop-sided loss to Arizona, this one is something of a no-brainer.

Falcons -4 SFBOTW!

Raiders @ Panthers -9.5
Carolina looked hot versus San Diego, and the Raiders beat the Chiefs on 5 Janikowski field goals... The spread however is very harsh so I'll err on the side of caution and take the points.

Raiders +9.5 (Panthers to win)


Another great off-season release from SD 

Saints @ Cowboys -1
The Cowboys squeeze by the Steelers, and with everything on the line for them in a deadlocked NFC East I'll stick with Romo and co.

Cowboys -1 

Chargers @ Jets -1
Tricky one as both looked extremely sub-par last weekend. However San Diego's problems are more consistency based, whereas the Jets are just suffering from an obscene lack of talent. With that in mind I'll roll with San Diego to grab a solid victory.

Chargers +1 (and to win)

Titans @ Packers -13
The Titans looked pretty rough despite a win over the rougher Jets, so I'll take the Pack despite a very large margin. 

Packers -13

Vikings @ Texans -9.5
Tough one as the Texans should win, but the Vikings comfortably saw off the Rams to remain in play-off contention. With that in mind (not to mention AP will be running hard for the rushing record) I'll take the points. 

Vikings +9.5 (Texans to win)

Patriots @ Jaguars +14
An upset for the Patriots at home, but despite a big spread I'll back Belichick to bounce back with a ruthless win as he invariably does following a bad loss. 

Patriots -14 




Colts @ Chiefs +6.5
Luck and the Colts lose to the Texans and will have to content themselves with a (still impressive) wild card berth. They should see off the stagnant Chiefs by at least a score.

Colts -6.5

Bills @ Dolphins -4
Buffalo just got walloped by the Seahawks, but I can't see them doing an Arizona and bouncing back from their 50-burger with a win over Miami. 

Dolphins -4 

Redskins @ Eagles +4.5
RG3 will be back for this one, and with an NFC East title just 2 wins away they won't take their foot off the gas now.

Redskins -4.5



Bengals @ Steelers -4
Pivotal AFC North show-down that will decide the remaining 2nd wildcard slot. I like the Bengals to win this one, finally coming out of the Steelers' shadow in the division's hierarchy. 

Bengals +4 (and to win)

Rams @ Buccs -3
With both teams coming off tough losses this could go either way, but I'll hesitantly back Tampa to snag a narrow win at home.

Buccs -3

Browns @ Broncos -13
Interesting one, with the Broncos comfortably seeing off the Ravens and the Browns falling to Cousins and the Skins. At home, they should repeat versus a weaker AFC North outfit.

Broncos -13

Giants @ Ravens +1
Big game here, and one both teams will be desperate not to lose. I think the Giants will be a touch more desperate however, and at a marginal spread I like them to win and maintain pace in the East.

Giants -1 



Bears @ Cardinals +5.5
Despite Arizona just grabbing a nice win versus Detroit, I like Chicago to come in and pump the brakes on their late season slide in a confident victory.

Bears -5.5

49ers @ Seahawks Pick 'em
Very tough one to call, with both coming off huge wins and still all to play for in the NFC West. With that in mind I'll let Waffle and Ralph take the next step up to prime-time: 





Again we have a split decision! If this keeps happening I might have to divide their segment, but for now we'll go with the first choice, that being Waffle and the visiting Niners, who control their own destiny for the NFC West crown. This should be a fantastic game, and as unpredictable as any I've seen this season. 

49ers


Long term prospects!


Superbowl special:

Following on from last weeks recommendations, I'll update you on the odds: 
Baltimore (were 23.00) = Risen to 29.00 Whilst they've looked very shoddy, they are garunteed play-off football at this point. I advised waiting last week, but their game with the Giants could go either way so now is the time to strike if you are going to. MAYBE.
Chicago (41.00) = Doubled to 81.00! - Their chances of even making the playoffs are looking rocky... But definitely worth £1 at this price! YES (Small).
Washington (34.00) = Dropped to 26.00 - Looking as likely as any of the NFC East to make it in, and definitely have the potential to go on a run. I wouldn't bet on them at this low price though. NO.


Introducing a new prospect:

Green Bay = 8.50 The odds are far from great but they are definitely worth putting a medium sized stake on at 8.50, as will almost certainly be a contender to at least make the big game. YES.

Good luck.


*Lines accurate as of 18/12/12 via Sportacular. LTP odds from skybet.*