Another sub-par week of predictions with an average 9-6 outright marred by a woeful 5-10 on the spreads. If this keeps up I may be forced to throw in the predicting towel. The only thing keeping me going now is another SFBOTW hitting, meaning whilst I am less than perfect as a whole I am almost 2:1 on the games I feel most comfortable in. Now I just need to limit myself to betting on those...
Week 11:
Outright = 9-6
Spread = 5-10
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 103-60
Spread = 76-83-4
SFBOTW = 7-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 269-151
Spread = 216-197-7
SFBOTW = 15-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Saints @ Falcons +9.5 Sky Sports 1
What should have been a cracking Thursday night football encounter when penned in at the start of the season, now even the divisional factor can't rescue this from being a damp squib. The Falcons are vying with the Texans for the crown of biggest disappointments 2013, and a far cry for the undefeated team that lasted much of last season. Whatever the reasons for their fall from grace, the Saints will make short work of a team at rock bottom.
9.5 is a healthy margin, but one I think the Saints should cover.
Saints -9.5
Sunday First Wave
Jets @ Ravens -4 Sky Sports 3
A less than attractive game between two inconsistent performers, this is a tough one to call. I think the Ravens are in the better position to win this one, especially at home, as even despite last week's loss against Cutler-less Chicago, they face off against the turnover machine that was Geno Smith last week.
4 points is a decent spread, but again I think the Ravens could well win by a score or more here.
Ravens -4
Steelers @ Browns -1
This is a game which in which the Steelers inexplicably (to me at any rate) are under dogs. Yes they had a terrible start compared to the Browns' strong one, but looking at recent form tells us this shouldn't even be close. Pittsburgh have benefited from the resurgence of a run game with Bell in play, whereas Campbell has been as ineffective as we've come to expect from Browns' fill ins. Despite the homefield advantage for the Browns, this is Steelers all day.
The +1 point just makes this sweeter.
Steelers +1 (and to win) SFBOTW
Buccaneers @ Lions -9.5
Tampa's mini revival should come to a screeching halt here, facing off against a Detroit side that will be eager to get back on track following their loss to Pittsburgh last weekend. Look for the beastly Lions d-line to make life difficult for Glennon.
9.5 is a very large spread however, and the Buccs have weapons capable of staying competitive.
Buccs +9.5 (Lions win)
Vikings @ Packers -4.5
I'm definitely in two minds about this game. On the one hand, the Packers have the home field and are a better overall team. On the other, they are shadows of their former selves without Rodgers. We often place too much importance on QB play in all levels of football, Green Bay being without their lead man shows why sometimes we're right to do so. I fancy the Vikings (even with their marginally better passing options), to take advantage here and grab the win.
The spread just sweetens the pot.
Vikings +4.5 (and to win)
Jaguars @ Texans -10
The Texans lost out last week to the Raiders, and the shine seems to be wearing thin on Case Keenum already. It was definitely the wrong decision to pull him in favour of Schaub last week, no matter how inaccurate he was. At this point you are trying to evaluate whether the kid is worth sticking with or whether you have to go all out in the draft for a new QB. I like Case to find his rhythm once more against a struggling (but gradually improving) visiting Jax.
10 points is too much for me.
Jaguars +10 (Texans to win)
Panthers @ Dolphins +4.5
Despite the Dolphins' victory over San Diego I see Carolina as clear favourites here. Yes they got lucky on that final play versus the Pats, but they are still an extremely strong team. A dominant defensive front plus the particular skills of Cam make for a dangerous cocktail. I like them to take down the Phins comfortably.
4.5 isn't enough to sway me here.
Panthers -4.5
Bears @ Rams -1
With Jay Cutler out this becomes yet another back QB bowl. Then question becomes A. who has the better running game and B. who's defence is more likely to force an inexperienced passer into mistakes. I think the Rams edge this, especially in the latter category. I'm expecting a tight game but one I think St. Louis could nick at home.
The spread changes nothing.
Rams -1
Sunday Second Wave
Colts @ Cardinals -1
This should be an intriguing game, with the Colts travelling to Arizona. Make no mistake these are two good teams playing, and the Cardinals will make life very difficult for Luck and co. That said, it's hard to bet against Indy when they are some proficient at come from behind victories. Whilst the match up is not great I think they have enough quality to scrape one.
Colts +1 (and to win)
Titans @ Raiders -1
Interesting call here, as the Titans have struggled somewhat since Locker went out, but are still a strong team. The Raiders meanwhile impressed in their win over Houston, particularly Rashad Jennings' bruising running and the surprisingly effective Matt McGloin under centre. This really good go either way, but I'll err with who I think are the better team.
Titans +1 (and to win)
Cowboys @ Giants -1 Sky Sports 3
The Giants are back on track, but it's probably far too little too late even in the torrid NFC East. The Cowboys will look to bounce back following their bye week and preceeding beat down by NO, and what better way to do it than in what is always a heated divisional encounter. I like the 'Boys to win this one.
The extra point does little except tell me I'm in the slight minority.
Cowboys +1 (and to win)
Chargers @ Chiefs -5
Another heartbreakingly narrow loss for SD at the weekend (no team has lost more 1 score games this season), and things won't get any easier with a trip to rivals Kansas City in the pipe. The Chiefs showed their flaws in their game in Denver, namely an offence not up to matching scores with the most explosive in the league. Can Rivers and the Chargers put up enough points on a stingy Chiefs' defense to take this one? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.
The spread swings this for me, San Diego have been ultra competitive in all their losses, and there's no reason to think they'll throw this one away by a larger margin.
Chargers +5 (Chiefs to win)
Sunday Night
Broncos @ Patriots +1
Marquee match up and what should be another great one in the Brady/Manning rivalry. With the Broncos firing on all cylinders I think this is an easy call in terms of the result, even in Foxboro. Having said that, it is still anyone's game and you never count the Pats out.
Broncos -1
Monday Night
49ers @ Redskins +5
The Redskins' season is effectively over whereas the 49ers are fighting to keep hold of a wild card berth. With both teams underperforming I still like the Niners to grab this. Their defense should be an extra test for a still sub-par RG3 (compared to his standards last year) and the Skins soft underbelly that is their pass defense is exactly what Kaep needs to get back on track.
The spread is large enough to give me cause for concern, but I think the Niners should cover.
49ers -5
Thursday, 21 November 2013
Wednesday, 13 November 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 11
Back to back shockers at 7-7 outright and a paltry 5-8 on the spread (putting me into negative numbers on the season!!). This is the stuff nightmares are made of, with Tampa canning my SFBOTW convincingly the rotten cherry on top of this particularly rancid cake.
Still, onwards and upwards, and this weeks' games are a much more respectable bunch, on the face of it.
Week 10:
Outright = 7-7
Spread = 5-8
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 94-54
Spread = 71-73-4
SFBOTW = 6-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 260-145
Spread = 211-187-7
SFBOTW = 14-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Colts @ Titans +2.5 Sky Sports 2
A pretty decent Thursday night match up, even if I thought there was no chance both these two would be coming into this one on a loss. I like the Titans, but even after last week's shellecking by St. Louis the Colts should expect to win here, especially with Locker out and (the not bad at all as back ups go) Fitzpatrick stepping in. The Titans are at home, and should improve from their ugly loss to Jacksonville, but I still think they'll struggle to win in this one.
The spread is easily small enough to double down on Indy.
Colts -2.5
Sunday First Wave
Jets @ Bills -1
What looks to be another closely contested affair in this AFC East dog fight. The Bills were less than impressive against the Steelers, even with EJ Manuel back in charge, but their ground game does seem to be getting its legs back with Spiller finally healthy. Unfortunately for CJ and co. they face one of the toughest run defences in the league, with the Jets' brutal defensive line sure to make life a misery for Buffalo despite them holding the home field. Most games are won and lost in the trenches, and this will be no different.
A slight swing towards the Jets just sweetens the deal.
Jets +1 (and to win)
Ravens @ Bears -2.5
What should be another tight one with the Culter-less Bears hosting the Ravens, fresh off a divisional win over the Bengals. I'm torn here, as on the one hand the Bears are minus their QB1, but on the other they are at home and playing a Ravens side that does not typically travel well.
The spread makes what is a relatively tough decision rather easy.
Ravens +2.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Bengals -5.5 Sky Sports 2
Cleveland are fresh off a bye, Cincy are fresh off an ugly loss to Baltimore. As much as they are wildly inconsistent, I can't see the hosts dropping back to back divisional games, especially against the Browns, who despite a great defence are consistently hamstrung by below average QB play and a toothless offence.
The spread is large but I feel pretty comfortable that they can win by a score, even if most Bengals fans (don't go to bed just yet) will probably disagree.
Bengals -5.5
Raiders @ Texans -7.5
Oakland have fallen off the pace a bit in recent weeks, with Pryor losing some of his gloss and the cracks are beginning to show (as you would expect from an already threadbare roster that is ravaged by key injuries). Houston meanwhile may have found their QB of the future, or at least someone who is worthy of having a crack at the job, in Case Keenum, but are not exactly in a great spot with Arian Foster done for the year and his back up Ben Tate playing through a handful of broken ribs. I think they'll have enough to beat Oakland at home, but I don't expect to see them challenging over a play off berth come December.
This spread is a very attractive one, and I definitely think the Raiders are capable of covering.
Raiders +7.5 (Texans win)
Cardinals @Jaguars +6.5
Let's here it for the Jacksonville Jaguars. A gritty win over a divisional foe is just what this team needed after languishing at the bottom of the NFL all year. Unfortunately they have the Cardinals visiting for an encore, who themselves just saw off the Texans are who's elite defence will make life a misery for the rag tag offence plying it's trade in Jacksonville Florida professional football is not where it is at, right now.
At under a score this should be a cake walk for Arizona, and one I'll be targeting heavily.
Cardinals -6.5 SFBOTW
Redskins @ Eagles -3.5
Very interesting match up with two soft as butter pass defences going up against the in form Nick Foles and the always dangerous RG3. This is a game that I feel could go either way, and being a divisional encounter adds an extra element of uncertainty and tension. The Redskins need to win here to keep their slim playoff dream alive, but I think the Eagles will come through at home and edge a close game. Foles is not as good as he has looked the last couple of weeks, but even at half speed they could score enough on this defence to seal the deal.
I'll hedge my bets and take the spread here, as it could well be a close fought thing.
Redskins +3.5 (Eagles to win)
Lions @ Steelers +1
Pittsburgh seem to have sailed out of the worst of it, but Big Ben's rumoured wanderlust is as concerning as it is surprising for Steelers' faithful. Detroit are finally finding their legs this season and seem to be putting their potential into practice (coincidentally coinciding with Jim Schwartz's super rad makeover?). I like them to grab a win here by narrow margins, fresh off the bye.
The spread doesn't change much.
Lions -1
 |
| This is not a man you would trust your kids with. |
Falcons @ Buccaneers -1
Bargain basement NFC South match up between two teams that were supposed to be far, far better than they have been. The Falcons lost out to Seattle, whereas Tampa ambushed a dizzy Dolphins squad. Those results aside, I'd still expect Atlanta to win here - the Buccs are paper thin at RB having now lost Mike James for the season in addition to Doug Martin.
Falcons +1 (and to win)
49ers @ Saints -3.5 Sky Sports 2
A very interesting match up, with the Saints fresh off a demolition of Dallas, and SF coming off a narrow home loss to Carolina. The gulf between these two is much closer to the latter performance, but it is still a game I'd expect New Orleans to win at home judging by current form.
The spread is very doable, if you can get it down to 3 do so though.
Saints -3.5
Chargers @ Dolphins +1
Another loss by a score or less for SD, who have yet to lose a game by more than 8 points this season. That said, they've still lost 5 so far, so it will come as a relief that they get to use up a tough East coast trip to the most dysfunctional team in the league (I think the Buccs managed to pass the curse on), the Miami Dolphins. Whilst they still have talent, I don't see the game breakers that are going to put up enough points to keep pace with Rivers, and a Chargers D that has been hit and miss this season should have a good day versus the Dolphins weapons.
At -1 I'm loving this spread.
Chargers -1
Vikings @ Seahawks -13.5
This should be a very one sided affair, the highlight being Percy Harvin's likely return against the team that traded him. However it will also be interesting to see if Seattle's pass protection can improve, and whether they can get back to the kind of form we are used to after last week's scarily close call versus Tampa.
The spread turns this from an easy call to a very difficult one, but I'm going to err on the side of caution and take the points until I'm sold Seattle are back to their best.
Vikings +13.5 (Seahawks win)
Packers @ Giants -6
What should be another tight one with the Rodger-less Packers hoping to grab a win over the languishing Giants. They will have to travel though, and their lack of a starting QB puts them in a difficult position against Eli and the Giants, who whilst terrible this season usually save their best for this kind of game. They've had their number in the past, I don't expect that to change now with Rodgers out, nor do I expect Flynn to come close to his previous Packer performances.
The spread makes this difficult for me, I'll think I'll err on the side of caution though.
Packers +6 (Giants to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Chiefs @ Broncos -9.5
The game of the week between the two best teams in the league right now, yes the Chiefs have played a soft schedule, but Denver's hasn't been much harder. At home I expect the Broncos to win here, but how much Manning's bum ankle troubles him will be key. This will be the greatest test for a so far extremely impressive defence, if they can harry Manning enough they stand a good chance of winning, but I still have to side with Denver to grab the W here.
9.5 is a huge spread, I'm all over the Chiefs at anything close to this.
Chiefs +9.5 (Broncos win)
Sunday Night
Patriots @ Panthers -1
This should be a cracking match up, with one of the best front 7s in football matching up against a Patriots side that should finally have all it's weapons back in play. I like Carolina to pull off the win here, they should dominate up front and make life very difficult for Brady.
The spread is negligible, so I'll stick with it.
Panthers -1
Thursday, 7 November 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 10
A truly terrible week of predictions at a shocking 7-7 outright (not exactly the calk walk I was expecting), and 6-8 on the spread. At least my SFBOTW (somehow) won, so I'm actually looking pretty respectable on those this year with a 2:1 ratio going into week 10.
I was feeling pretty good about last week, and it went terribly, so the fact I feel terrible about this week's spreads means I'm guaranteed a flawless week, right?
Week 9:
Outright = 7-7
Spread = 6-8
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 87-47
Spread = 60-57-3
SFBOTW = 6-3
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 253-138
Spread = 206-179-6
SFBOTW = 14-11-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Redskins @ Vikings +1
The Redskins won a roller coaster game in OT versus the Chargers, and will be hopeful it can spring the turnaround in their fortunes that they so desperately need. They can't ask for a much easier away trip than @ Minnesota, even despite the home side's close playing of Dallas in the game just gone.
At a negligible spread I'm all over the Skins here.
Redskins -1
Sunday First Wave
Seahawks @ Falcons +6 Sky Sports 3
So we all saw the Buccs running the Seahawks into a come from behind overtime victory, right?
That's what I thought... This Hawks team is still very talented, and everyone has off days, but the o-line cracks are definitely showing in an otherwise strong roster. The good news? Every passing week means a the likelihood of débuting star acquisition Percy Harvin increases, and also, more importantly, they get to play the Falcons. Is it really just (albeit it a lot of) injuries that have caused Atlanta to go from being a potential SB contender to whipping boys? Maybe, but it's rare to see teams collapse so much from a non-QB blow.
6 points is not a lot, but the Seahawks have been struggling to win games comfortably in recent weeks. Even so, and on the road, I like them to win by a score or more here.
Seahawks -6
Bengals @ Ravens +1
The Bengals lost to Miami, and said good bye to Geno Atkins' season in the process. Not a good day for them, but it wasn't much better for Baltimore who lost out in an ugly affair to their rival Browns. Truly the AFC North is a shadow of its former self right now. All complaining aside, this is actually a pretty evenly balanced game. The loss of Geno will hurt the Bengals up front, but I still think they have enough in the tank to squeeze out a tight win.
1 point is nada.
Bengals -1
Lions @ Bears +2 Sky Sports 2
The probable return of Jay Cutler makes this a tight game to call, as both teams have been fairly impressive, if a little inconsistent, this year. If he does play I like the Bears to win this one, but if not then Lions all day.
2 points isn't a lot, but it sweetens the pot in what should be a tight game.
Bears +2 (and to win)
Eagles @ Packers -1
From one NFC North QB returning from injury to the start of a lengthy absence for another. Aaron Rodgers should return fairly quickly from his broken collarbone (luckily not his throwing side), but he will be out for at least 4 weeks. The Packers will be hoping they can scrape through until then, but the visit of Philly will not be an easy game, what with Foles dropping bombs (7, count 'em) on Oakland last week.
Another tiny spread, I like the Eagles to win, although they are hardly the most consistent of performers.
Eagles +1 (and to win)
Rams @ Colts -9.5
St. Louis struggle on without Bradford, and despite their best efforts it is going to be a long season. Indy pulled off quite some comeback 3 scores down against Houston, and are in no danger of losing this one (although after Seattle/Tampa my belief in a sure thing has never been weaker).
9.5 is a large spread, I'm pretty on the fence about this. I think the Colts will just about cover though.
Colts -9.5
Raiders @ Giants -9.5
Pryor and D-mac both got hurt in the Raiders' big loss to Philly, but the good news is the former looks set to play against NY. If he does, it could be a very competitive game, as the Giants have hardly been setting the world alight this season. Despite that, I still like them to grab a close win at home.
9.5 seems an absurd margin to give a team as poor as the Giants, I love the Raiders with this spread if Pryor plays. If he doesn't, if gets a lot more dicey but I'll still take it.
Raiders +9.5 (Giants win)
Bills @ Steelers -3
CJ Spiller finally looks healthy again - not good news for a Pittsburgh side that has had a very lukewarm season. However, at home I like the Steelers to win a close fought game, taking advantage of the BIlls' inexperience at QB.
3 points is too much for me, I'll take them here when this is anyone's game.
Bills +3 (Steelers to win)
Jaguars @ Titans -10.5
Will the Jaguars have improved coming off their bye? Probably not, and @ Tennessee is one of the tougher prospects in the league right now. The Titans have been very solid this year, and should win convincingly, although whether they light up the scoreboard is to be seen.
10.5 is a lot but the Jags truly are terrible.
Titans -10.5
Sunday Second Wave
Panthers @ 49ers -6.5
Very interesting match up between two of the NFC's in-form teams. Fresh off their bye I like the 49ers to win here, but coming off a divisional beat down of the Falcons the Panthers are no pushovers. I'm expecting a lot of big plays from two of the leagues' most exciting QBs.
6.5 is too many points for me to feel comfortable with, especially with this being a game the Panthers could definitely steal.
Panthers +6.5 (49ers to win)
Texans @ Cardinals -1
Case Keenum is legit. He's like a less obnoxious version of Johnny Football. That said, his aggressive style of play is going to get him into trouble early against a better defence, which it just so happens the Cardinals possess. Look for a couple of picks from the young QB and a fairly safe Arizona win.
-1 is AGAIN a small spread, but one I like a fair bit.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Chargers +7 Sky Sports 2
I have haunting memories of this game from last season, with the Chargers blowing a 3 score lead to lose against Manning and Broncos. This year, Denver are even better, but SD have taken a huge leap in improving their play and shoring up/disguising their big weaknesses. Whilst only 4-4 they haven't lost a game by more than a score, and even though I still think Denver will win the game, this looks to be another high scoring nail biter, and a great game for the neutrals.
I like the spread here, but am not super confident on it. I do think it'll be a shoot-out though, and you should always take the points in a shoot-out.
Chargers +7 (Broncos to win)
Sunday Night
Cowboys @ Saints -7
Decent match up between a fairly dominant (until last week) Saints team and a Cowboys side that has been more hit than miss this year. I'm still not quite sure how NO lost to the Jets (that d-line is pretty beastly though), but I think they'll set the record straight here in a classic shoot out in the big easy.
7 points is too much for my likely. The Cowboys will run them close, and maybe even be leading before Romo does something Romo-ey.
Cowboys +7 (Saints to win)
Monday Night
Dolphins @ Buccaneers +1
Tampa massively over performed against Seattle - that result is not a true measure of where they are, something their 0-8 record does not belie. This will be a tough bounce back game for them, with a solid Miami team visiting who should (even in the wake of the racist Richie saga) control the game up front.
Not much of a spread, so I'm feeling very strongly that this won't be Tampa's first win.
Dolphins -1 SFBOTW
I was feeling pretty good about last week, and it went terribly, so the fact I feel terrible about this week's spreads means I'm guaranteed a flawless week, right?
Week 9:
Outright = 7-7
Spread = 6-8
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 87-47
Spread = 60-57-3
SFBOTW = 6-3
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 253-138
Spread = 206-179-6
SFBOTW = 14-11-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Redskins @ Vikings +1
The Redskins won a roller coaster game in OT versus the Chargers, and will be hopeful it can spring the turnaround in their fortunes that they so desperately need. They can't ask for a much easier away trip than @ Minnesota, even despite the home side's close playing of Dallas in the game just gone.
At a negligible spread I'm all over the Skins here.
Redskins -1
Sunday First Wave
Seahawks @ Falcons +6 Sky Sports 3
So we all saw the Buccs running the Seahawks into a come from behind overtime victory, right?
That's what I thought... This Hawks team is still very talented, and everyone has off days, but the o-line cracks are definitely showing in an otherwise strong roster. The good news? Every passing week means a the likelihood of débuting star acquisition Percy Harvin increases, and also, more importantly, they get to play the Falcons. Is it really just (albeit it a lot of) injuries that have caused Atlanta to go from being a potential SB contender to whipping boys? Maybe, but it's rare to see teams collapse so much from a non-QB blow.
6 points is not a lot, but the Seahawks have been struggling to win games comfortably in recent weeks. Even so, and on the road, I like them to win by a score or more here.
Seahawks -6
Bengals @ Ravens +1
The Bengals lost to Miami, and said good bye to Geno Atkins' season in the process. Not a good day for them, but it wasn't much better for Baltimore who lost out in an ugly affair to their rival Browns. Truly the AFC North is a shadow of its former self right now. All complaining aside, this is actually a pretty evenly balanced game. The loss of Geno will hurt the Bengals up front, but I still think they have enough in the tank to squeeze out a tight win.
1 point is nada.
Bengals -1
Lions @ Bears +2 Sky Sports 2
The probable return of Jay Cutler makes this a tight game to call, as both teams have been fairly impressive, if a little inconsistent, this year. If he does play I like the Bears to win this one, but if not then Lions all day.
2 points isn't a lot, but it sweetens the pot in what should be a tight game.
Bears +2 (and to win)
Eagles @ Packers -1
From one NFC North QB returning from injury to the start of a lengthy absence for another. Aaron Rodgers should return fairly quickly from his broken collarbone (luckily not his throwing side), but he will be out for at least 4 weeks. The Packers will be hoping they can scrape through until then, but the visit of Philly will not be an easy game, what with Foles dropping bombs (7, count 'em) on Oakland last week.
Another tiny spread, I like the Eagles to win, although they are hardly the most consistent of performers.
Eagles +1 (and to win)
Rams @ Colts -9.5
St. Louis struggle on without Bradford, and despite their best efforts it is going to be a long season. Indy pulled off quite some comeback 3 scores down against Houston, and are in no danger of losing this one (although after Seattle/Tampa my belief in a sure thing has never been weaker).
9.5 is a large spread, I'm pretty on the fence about this. I think the Colts will just about cover though.
Colts -9.5
Raiders @ Giants -9.5
Pryor and D-mac both got hurt in the Raiders' big loss to Philly, but the good news is the former looks set to play against NY. If he does, it could be a very competitive game, as the Giants have hardly been setting the world alight this season. Despite that, I still like them to grab a close win at home.
9.5 seems an absurd margin to give a team as poor as the Giants, I love the Raiders with this spread if Pryor plays. If he doesn't, if gets a lot more dicey but I'll still take it.
Raiders +9.5 (Giants win)
Bills @ Steelers -3
CJ Spiller finally looks healthy again - not good news for a Pittsburgh side that has had a very lukewarm season. However, at home I like the Steelers to win a close fought game, taking advantage of the BIlls' inexperience at QB.
3 points is too much for me, I'll take them here when this is anyone's game.
Bills +3 (Steelers to win)
Jaguars @ Titans -10.5
Will the Jaguars have improved coming off their bye? Probably not, and @ Tennessee is one of the tougher prospects in the league right now. The Titans have been very solid this year, and should win convincingly, although whether they light up the scoreboard is to be seen.
10.5 is a lot but the Jags truly are terrible.
Titans -10.5
Sunday Second Wave
Panthers @ 49ers -6.5
Very interesting match up between two of the NFC's in-form teams. Fresh off their bye I like the 49ers to win here, but coming off a divisional beat down of the Falcons the Panthers are no pushovers. I'm expecting a lot of big plays from two of the leagues' most exciting QBs.
6.5 is too many points for me to feel comfortable with, especially with this being a game the Panthers could definitely steal.
Panthers +6.5 (49ers to win)
Texans @ Cardinals -1
Case Keenum is legit. He's like a less obnoxious version of Johnny Football. That said, his aggressive style of play is going to get him into trouble early against a better defence, which it just so happens the Cardinals possess. Look for a couple of picks from the young QB and a fairly safe Arizona win.
-1 is AGAIN a small spread, but one I like a fair bit.
Cardinals -1
Broncos @ Chargers +7 Sky Sports 2
I have haunting memories of this game from last season, with the Chargers blowing a 3 score lead to lose against Manning and Broncos. This year, Denver are even better, but SD have taken a huge leap in improving their play and shoring up/disguising their big weaknesses. Whilst only 4-4 they haven't lost a game by more than a score, and even though I still think Denver will win the game, this looks to be another high scoring nail biter, and a great game for the neutrals.
I like the spread here, but am not super confident on it. I do think it'll be a shoot-out though, and you should always take the points in a shoot-out.
Chargers +7 (Broncos to win)
Sunday Night
Cowboys @ Saints -7
Decent match up between a fairly dominant (until last week) Saints team and a Cowboys side that has been more hit than miss this year. I'm still not quite sure how NO lost to the Jets (that d-line is pretty beastly though), but I think they'll set the record straight here in a classic shoot out in the big easy.
7 points is too much for my likely. The Cowboys will run them close, and maybe even be leading before Romo does something Romo-ey.
Cowboys +7 (Saints to win)
Monday Night
Dolphins @ Buccaneers +1
Tampa massively over performed against Seattle - that result is not a true measure of where they are, something their 0-8 record does not belie. This will be a tough bounce back game for them, with a solid Miami team visiting who should (even in the wake of the racist Richie saga) control the game up front.
Not much of a spread, so I'm feeling very strongly that this won't be Tampa's first win.
Dolphins -1 SFBOTW
Wednesday, 30 October 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 9
I saw less of week 8 live than any other this season, mostly due to us being deep in our cups at Wembley. Whilst that game was not a scintillating 4th quarter battle, there were plenty elsewhere in the league to take in despite there being far too many bye weeks.
It turned out to be a very solid week for my predicting, with 11-2 outright and 8-5 on the spread, plus my SFBOTW hitting comfortably. Shame Gnome blew her perfect record, but you can't win 'em all.
Week 9 looks like a cake walk in terms of the outrights, but let's take a closer look at the handicaps.
Week 8:
Outright = 11-2
Spread = 8-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
Animal Corner = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 80-40
Spread = 60-57-3
SFBOTW = 5-3
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 246-131
Spread = 200-171-6
SFBOTW = 13-11-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Bengals @ Dolphins +1 Sky Sports 1
Cincy well and truly smashed the Jets, and the Dolphins are fast losing sense of their pre and early season hype. Whilst away @ Miami on a short week isn't the easiest trip in the league, this is still one the Bengals should expect to win.
The spread is attractively low, and should be as despite being a better team they really haven't been (last week aside) blowing teams out. I love this game as basically a pick 'em.
Bengals -1
Sunday First Wave
Chiefs @ Bills +3
The Chiefs are officially 8-0. They are, technically at least, the best team in the league. This is some jump for the 2-14 worst team in football last year. What a difference a good coach and QB can make. At Buffalo this shouldn't be the game that tarnishes their perfect record, especially with the hosts coming off a blow out loss to the Saints.
Another attractive spread for a team that doesn't usually tend to win big. Chiefs all day here.
Chiefs -3
Falcons @ Panthers -9.5
Carolina are one of the strongest teams in the league right now, and a down and out Atlanta shouldn't be too much of a tougher test than what they've faced in recent weeks. That said, it's a divisional game so anything could happen.
9.5 is way too many points for a divisional match-up.
Falcons +9.5 (Panthers win)
Vikings @ Cowboys -10
Minnesota will be hoping they can get Freeman back, and on target, for this game. However even if he plays and is improved they face a tough test against a strong Cowboys side. Don't let last week's narrow loss to Detroit fool you, they are still a contender.
10 points is large, but the Vikings have been truly terrible lately.
Cowboys -10
Chargers @ Redskins +1
Very interesting match up here with a tough road test for an in form Chargers side. The Redskins are no pushovers despite their poor record, and are improving each week, but I still like San Diego's top 5 offence to make life difficult for a struggling 'Skins pass defence.
At essentially a pick 'em no surprises here.
Chargers -1
Saints @ Jets +5.5 Sky Sports 2
NY just got killed by the Bengals, but they have been wildly inconsistent this year so a strong turnaround at home isn't out of the question. However, the Saints are as tough an opposition you can find right now, and fresh off a beat down of Buffalo they should continue their winning ways here.
5.5 is a decent chunk of points, but I like NO to win by a score.
Saints -5.5
Titans @ Rams +3
The Rams defence played exceptionally versus the Seahawks, but their offence was equally poor. This game should be another tight defensive struggle, facing off against a consistently strong Titans side. I like Tennessee to continue their winning ways here against a Rams side that will struggle to score points for the rest of the season with Bradford out.
Titans -3
Sunday Second Wave
Eagles @ Raiders Pick 'em Sky Sports 2
Intriguing game with two very different sides facing off here. The Raiders have surpassed their historically low expectations at 3-4, and seem to have found a potential future star in Terrelle Pryor. The Eagles meanwhile have fallen off their early season promise, and last week's loss to the Giants makes this a close encounter. I like the Raiders to grab another W here, and Pryor to continue to impress.
Raiders
Buccaneers @ Seahawks -16.5
This is an open and shut case. Tampa are wallowing in joint last with a lame duck coach, Seattle are maybe the best team in football (even despite last week's struggle against St. Louis). Russell Wilson has never lost at home, and there's no chance it will be at the hands of Tampa.
16.5 is a huge spread, but one that I wouldn't bet against the Hawks covering.
Hawks -16.5
Ravens @ Browns +1
Less than electrifying divisional encounter between two of the duller teams in the league right now. I can't think of game that I'd be least enthused to watch this week, but that doesn't mean it won't be a close one. Despite that, I think Baltimore have the advantage here, with an offence that should score more readily even against a stout Browns D.
Ravens -1
Steelers @ Patriots -7
This shouldn't be a close one, with a struggling Pittsburgh side facing off against a Pats team coming off the back of a crucial divisional win versus Miami. NE have had their struggles, but with Gronk getting healthier every week, and the promise of Amendola back, Brady should have more to work with.
7 points is a decent spread, but one I'd expect the Pats to cover.
Patriots -7
Sunday Night
Colts @ Texans +1
A big divisional game, and one in which the Colts will be looking to tighten their stranglehold on the division and set the Texans back to perennial runners up. Case Keenum did not look terrible by any means in his début start 2 weeks ago, but this is a game that Luck and co. should not be losing if they want to prove they are a legitimate threat, and not still a few pieces away.
-1 is nothing, the Colts are legit.
Colts -1 SFBOTW
Monday Night
Bears @ Packers -10.5
Chicago's struggles without Cutler are set to continue, and the Pack will take advantage here, extending their lead in the division with a key home win. Even without a lot of his main targets, Rodgers is plenty capable of controlling this game.
10.5 is a big one and I think this could be kept within reach. It's a divisional game, and the Bears won't roll over even down their QB1.
Bears +10.5 (Packers to win)
It turned out to be a very solid week for my predicting, with 11-2 outright and 8-5 on the spread, plus my SFBOTW hitting comfortably. Shame Gnome blew her perfect record, but you can't win 'em all.
Week 9 looks like a cake walk in terms of the outrights, but let's take a closer look at the handicaps.
Week 8:
Outright = 11-2
Spread = 8-5
SFBOTW = 1-0
Animal Corner = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 80-40
Spread = 60-57-3
SFBOTW = 5-3
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 246-131
Spread = 200-171-6
SFBOTW = 13-11-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Bengals @ Dolphins +1 Sky Sports 1
Cincy well and truly smashed the Jets, and the Dolphins are fast losing sense of their pre and early season hype. Whilst away @ Miami on a short week isn't the easiest trip in the league, this is still one the Bengals should expect to win.
The spread is attractively low, and should be as despite being a better team they really haven't been (last week aside) blowing teams out. I love this game as basically a pick 'em.
Bengals -1
Sunday First Wave
Chiefs @ Bills +3
The Chiefs are officially 8-0. They are, technically at least, the best team in the league. This is some jump for the 2-14 worst team in football last year. What a difference a good coach and QB can make. At Buffalo this shouldn't be the game that tarnishes their perfect record, especially with the hosts coming off a blow out loss to the Saints.
Another attractive spread for a team that doesn't usually tend to win big. Chiefs all day here.
Chiefs -3
Falcons @ Panthers -9.5
Carolina are one of the strongest teams in the league right now, and a down and out Atlanta shouldn't be too much of a tougher test than what they've faced in recent weeks. That said, it's a divisional game so anything could happen.
9.5 is way too many points for a divisional match-up.
Falcons +9.5 (Panthers win)
Vikings @ Cowboys -10
Minnesota will be hoping they can get Freeman back, and on target, for this game. However even if he plays and is improved they face a tough test against a strong Cowboys side. Don't let last week's narrow loss to Detroit fool you, they are still a contender.
10 points is large, but the Vikings have been truly terrible lately.
Cowboys -10
Chargers @ Redskins +1
Very interesting match up here with a tough road test for an in form Chargers side. The Redskins are no pushovers despite their poor record, and are improving each week, but I still like San Diego's top 5 offence to make life difficult for a struggling 'Skins pass defence.
At essentially a pick 'em no surprises here.
Chargers -1
Saints @ Jets +5.5 Sky Sports 2
NY just got killed by the Bengals, but they have been wildly inconsistent this year so a strong turnaround at home isn't out of the question. However, the Saints are as tough an opposition you can find right now, and fresh off a beat down of Buffalo they should continue their winning ways here.
5.5 is a decent chunk of points, but I like NO to win by a score.
Saints -5.5
Titans @ Rams +3
The Rams defence played exceptionally versus the Seahawks, but their offence was equally poor. This game should be another tight defensive struggle, facing off against a consistently strong Titans side. I like Tennessee to continue their winning ways here against a Rams side that will struggle to score points for the rest of the season with Bradford out.
Titans -3
Sunday Second Wave
Eagles @ Raiders Pick 'em Sky Sports 2
Intriguing game with two very different sides facing off here. The Raiders have surpassed their historically low expectations at 3-4, and seem to have found a potential future star in Terrelle Pryor. The Eagles meanwhile have fallen off their early season promise, and last week's loss to the Giants makes this a close encounter. I like the Raiders to grab another W here, and Pryor to continue to impress.
Raiders
Buccaneers @ Seahawks -16.5
This is an open and shut case. Tampa are wallowing in joint last with a lame duck coach, Seattle are maybe the best team in football (even despite last week's struggle against St. Louis). Russell Wilson has never lost at home, and there's no chance it will be at the hands of Tampa.
16.5 is a huge spread, but one that I wouldn't bet against the Hawks covering.
Hawks -16.5
Ravens @ Browns +1
Less than electrifying divisional encounter between two of the duller teams in the league right now. I can't think of game that I'd be least enthused to watch this week, but that doesn't mean it won't be a close one. Despite that, I think Baltimore have the advantage here, with an offence that should score more readily even against a stout Browns D.
Ravens -1
Steelers @ Patriots -7
This shouldn't be a close one, with a struggling Pittsburgh side facing off against a Pats team coming off the back of a crucial divisional win versus Miami. NE have had their struggles, but with Gronk getting healthier every week, and the promise of Amendola back, Brady should have more to work with.
7 points is a decent spread, but one I'd expect the Pats to cover.
Patriots -7
Sunday Night
Colts @ Texans +1
A big divisional game, and one in which the Colts will be looking to tighten their stranglehold on the division and set the Texans back to perennial runners up. Case Keenum did not look terrible by any means in his début start 2 weeks ago, but this is a game that Luck and co. should not be losing if they want to prove they are a legitimate threat, and not still a few pieces away.
-1 is nothing, the Colts are legit.
Colts -1 SFBOTW
Monday Night
Bears @ Packers -10.5
Chicago's struggles without Cutler are set to continue, and the Pack will take advantage here, extending their lead in the division with a key home win. Even without a lot of his main targets, Rodgers is plenty capable of controlling this game.
10.5 is a big one and I think this could be kept within reach. It's a divisional game, and the Bears won't roll over even down their QB1.
Bears +10.5 (Packers to win)
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