Beating the Bookies: Week 11

An excellent week on the spread. The outrights and my SFBOTW... Not so much. I've managed to build up a quite respectable % on the spread at this point, it's just a shame I can't pin down which particular games are going to screw me over. Still, this week's match-ups look rather more promising, and with the brand new inclusion of some friendly helpers, at least we're having fun.

Week 10:

Outright = 8-6
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 79-68
Spread = 82-65
SFBOTW = 4-6

Just thinking about Matt Moore's glutes

Dolphins @ Bills -1
AFC West show down on Thursday night, and this week starts off with a really tough one to call. A week ago I wouldn't have hesitated to take Miami, but with last Sunday's results I'm in two minds. That being the case I'll leave it to Mystic Waffle and NostraRalphus to decide.

Miami                                 Buffalo

A decisive choice from Waffle, firmly backed up by his colleague. Let's hope their first prediction is as successful as it was delicious. Apologies for the unclear writing, they are still learning.

Bills -1

Cardinals @ Falcons -10
Large spread, and I'm really not sure about this one. The Falcons have been excellent all year, but typically haven't been blowing many teams out. Likewise the Cardinals have a good set-up for rushing the passer, and I gamble on them keeping it just within the spread.

Cards +10 (Falcons to win)

Buccs @ Panthers +1
Tampa continue to look a threat, whereas Carolina continue to lose games. Could well be a tight one, but at this spread I'll take the away side all day.

Buccs -1 

Browns @ Cowboys -8
Tough game to call, as it really depends which Cowboys team shows up on the day. That said, I will ere with the points mainly because the Browns' defence is better than perceived. They also performed well against SD, who in my mind are a similar style of team to the 'Boys (terrible ownership/coaching, retarded QB play, vertical offence, underrated 3-4 defence).

Browns +8 (Cowboys to win)

Packers @ Lions +3.5
A very attractive spread on the face of it, with GB coming fresh off the bye and the Lions a sobering loss to the Vikings. It looks a lock, but being a divisional game means there's always an increased chance of an upset.

Packers -3.5 SFBOTW

Jaguars @ Texans -16
Arguably the best vs arguably the worst, and a spread to match. There is no way the Texans are going to lose this game, but 16 makes even me sweat. They have been blowing better teams out all year though, so with some huge reservations I'll take the clear favourite.

Texans -16

Bengals @ Chiefs +3.5
Another game that looks very becoming. The Bengals just dominated the Giants, whereas the Chiefs have been pretty terrible, although put in a good showing at Pittsburgh. For some reason I'm smelling an upset so will authorise this with a warning label.

Bengals -3.5

Jets @ Rams -3
The Jets look likely to lose another straight NFC West match-up, with the Rams coming off a strong performance with their rare draw vs SF. St. Louis at home with Danny A. back are a tough test for anyone, let alone the floundering Jets. Contender for SFBOTW. Could Tebow be QB1 and throw a magical spanner in my prediction?

Rams -3

Eagles @ Redskins -3
Philly are well and truly on the rocks, and Andy Reid is a dead man walking. The Skins are at home and whilst neck and neck divisionally, have a lot more to play for with the young and promising RG3 as opposed to the Eagles' banged up and ageing Vick.

Skins -3 

Saints @ Raiders +4.5
They've just knocked off the previously undefeated Falcons, and are travelling to a team that just got torn apart by Baltimore. I think the bookies are doing NO a dis-service here, and my only concern is their suspect run defence could face a long day vs the Raiders talented (if healthy) backs. 

Saints -4.5 

Colts @ Patriots -9.5
Whilst Luck was far from perfect in Jacksonville last week, I think he will continue to do enough to at least make it close against the Pats. 

Colts +9.5 (Patriots to win)

He pooped in it moments before.

Chargers @ Broncos -7.5
I don't think the Chargers are done, and certainly have a shot in this game. That said, I expect the Broncos to win. It could be close, but given how bad SD are at playing from behind it seems more like they will implode in the 4th rather taking the game to a nail-biter. The Chargers just aren't any good as keeping games within their reach in clutch situations. Bear in mind though that Norv is playing for his job at this stage.

Broncos -7.5

Ravens @ Steelers -3.5
Very tough game to call. Two very solid teams and I think this one could well go down to the wire, but the Ravens looked far more impressive coming off last week.

Ravens +3.5 (and to win)

Bears @ 49ers -5
I'll take Chicago at these odds all day, sure the 49ers are a good team - but with both QBs questionable with concussions I like the turnover hungry Bears D to make life very difficult for the Niners. I'll still go with the home win though.

Bears +5 (49ers win)

Good luck! 

*All odds accurate as of 13/11/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App*

Beating the Bookies: Week 10

Another excellent week to be a gambler as the favourites almost unanimously performed to expectations. My record continues to grow more respectable, but some of this week's games look like tougher prospects. 

Week 9:

Outright = 11-3
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 1-0

Overall:

Outright = 71-62
Spread = 72-61
SFBOTW = 4-5

Colts @ Jags +3

The Colts and Luck are much better at home, but this is still another very winnable game on a smooth schedule.

Colts -3 

Chargers @ Buccs -3

The Chargers have struggled to beat good sides this year, but the Buccs are not a good side yet... I'm going to back my team, but know this one could be rockier than Norv's face. I'll justify my decision with the Bolt's top 5 run defense.

Chargers +3 (and to win)

Raiders @ Ravens -7.5

The Ravens struggled at times versus the Browns but pulled away in the 4th. I don't see a potentially D-Macless Oakland side causing too many problems in Baltimore.

Ravens -7.5 

Broncos @ Panthers +4

Carolina finally played to their potential and grabbed a big win over the Skins. However Manning and the Broncos will be a bridge too far for the Panthers, even at home.

Broncos -4 

Giants @ Bengals +4 

The Bengals face another tough home game, and whilst the Giants just lost out to the Steelers they should Cruz past Cincy here.

Giants -4 

Power rankings: visual aid edition

Titans @ Dolphins -6

The Titans have been very pedestrian this year, and whilst they are clearly the worse of these two, 6 points is enough for me to bank on when typically Miami's games have been tight this season.

Titans +6 (Dolphins to win)

Lions @ Vikings +1

A resurgent Detroit vs a staggering Minnesota at a negligible spread? I'll take the visitors, although AP is every bit the beast he used to be and could well cause problems.

Lions -1

Bills @ Pats -11

11 points is a large spread, especially in a divisional game. The Pats haven't, generally speaking, been blowing teams out this year so I'll take the points.

Bills +11 (Pats to win)

Falcons @ Saints +1

Really scratching my head on the one point spread here. Arguably the best team in the league deserves more respect even away from home. Sure, the Saints just beat the Eagles (who suck) and aren't as bad as their record suggests... but even so their defence is going to get torched by Jones, White and the rest.

Falcons -1 SFBOTW!!!

Cool. Cool cool cool.

Jets @ Seahawks -6.5

Quite a tough one as 6.5 is a large spread when both teams run conservative ground attacks. However after seeing off the more talented Vikings the Hawks should repeat vs the Jets. 

Seahawks -6.5 

Cowboys @ Eagles -1

The Eagles shot themselves in the foot once more with a failure to convert in the red zone. This is a team in disarray, and whilst the Cowboys aren't much better they should have enough to twist the knife.

Cowboys +1 (and to win)

Let's hope whoever wins the election has a good unemployment plan.

Rams @ 49ers -11

Another big spread, and with both teams fresh off the bye I like this to be just close enough. 

Rams +11 (49ers win)

Texans @ Bears -1

Powerhouse match up here, but I think the Texans are the more complete team. The Bears defence, especially the secondary, is playing out of their skins but J.J. Watt should get very personal with Cutler. It'll be a great one to watch, and I think the Texans will prevail.

Texans +1 (and to win)

Hilarious Cutler pics basically find themselves.

Chiefs @ Steelers -11.5

Kansas are without a doubt the worst team in the league this year, especially offensively. The Steelers at home coming off a big win should knock them out of the park.

Steelers -11.5


I'll leave you with Smith celebrating my most profitable week yet: 

Until next time,

Tommy.

*All odds accurate as of 6/11/12 via Yahoo's "Sportacular" app.*

Everyone's to Blame

My write up on the Spurs - Wigan game yesterday has been published by the Fighting Cock. Please find it here.

Beating the Bookies: Week 9

With last week being something of a rushed one I still managed a respectable showing, putting me over 0.500 overall. Something of a silly choice (in hindsight) for my SFBOTW makes that my only truly ugly category at this stage. It also reinforces the unpredictability of the league that my spread line is better than my outright.

Week 8:

Outright = 9-5
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 0-1

Overall:

Outright = 60-59
Spread = 62-57
SFBOTW = 3-5

Chiefs @ Chargers -9.5

The Chiefs have struggled mightily in recent weeks, but that shouldn't detract from the fact the Chargers just failed to score a TD vs the Browns. The divisional factor plus having Cassel back means I'll happily take the points.

Chiefs +9.5 (Chargers win)

Hey Rivers, the 80s called. You have AIDs. 

Broncos @ Bengals +3.5

Manning is a good as anyone anticipated, and should lead a strong Denver squad to the win, covering the spread without too much trouble.

Broncos -3.5 

Ravens @ Browns +3

Let's be clear, the Browns beating SD doesn't mean they are good, just were slightly less shit. Ravens all day.

Ravens -3.5 SFBOTW!!!!!!!

Cleveland have since removed sideline benches to prevent any more attempted player suicides.

Cardinals @ Packers -10

The Cardinals just got shown up at home by less explosive offense. However I do like the match up against GB's pass happy attack, so I'll take the spread.

Cardinals +10 (Packers win)

Bills @ Texans -10

It's a large spread, and it should be. The difference between these two is huge, and whilst 10 makes me a little nervous, the Texans have been blowing similar teams out all year.

No caption necessary.

Texans -10

Dolphins @ Colts +1

Matt Moore picked up the slack with ease to coast past the Jets, but the Colts at home is a tough prospect. This should be another nail biter but I'll keep siding with Luck until he lets me down.

Colts +1 (and to win)

Lions @ Jaguars +3.5

This will be closer than most will anticipate, but I still like Detroit to beat 4 points against one of the weakest teams around.

This needs to happen less if the Bears hope to keep winning.

Lions -3.5

Bears @ Titans +3.5

The Titans don't have enough weapons to beat a dominant Bears' defence, and Chicago's o-line should hold up better than it did vs Carolina.

Bears -3.5 

Panthers @ Redskins -3.5

I may need to reign back my trend of always backing Washington, because as good as RG3 is, their defence is worse. Having said that, this should be another high scoring affair as Carolina's hasn't been much better so I'll take the home side (with some reservations).

Redskins -3.5

Buccs @ Raiders -1

Tampa came in against a tougher opponent last week and grabbed the win, so I'll take them to do the same against Oakland who typically struggle to post back to back results.

Buccs +1 (and to win)

Vikings @ Seahawks -5

The Vikings are doing their best impression of the 2011 Bills, and I predict their collapse to continue vs an perennially dominant home Seattle side.

Hawks -5

Steelers @ Giants -3.5

Both sides coming off a big win so this should be a good match up. I fancy the Steelers to keep this just close enough.

Steelers +3.5 (Giants to win)

If you combined Romo's ability with Manning's face you could have the ultimate retard QB.

Cowboys @ Falcons -4.5

Atlanta are still the best team in the league, and a woefully inconsistent Cowboys' squad shouldn't pose much threat to that.

Falcons -4.5

Actually being able to fly might help the Eagles win a game. 

Eagles @ Saints -3.5

Tough one with two under performing sides. The Saints' defence is lot worse, but Philly seem to be under a lot more pressure to win. That said, the Eagles managed to avoid turning the ball over last week despite the loss, so I'll pick them although in truth this could go either way.

Eagles +3.5 (And to win)

**Odds accurate as of 30/10/2012 via Yahoo's Sportacular app**

Beating the Bookies: Week 8

With Tommy galavanting around New York, I'm posting his predictions for this week as I received them in an e-mail. A big week for him saves his blushes slightly by raising the season tallies to almost 50%. You're almost as good as a coin flip mate! Anyway, on to his predictions...

A personal best and an outstanding week both outright, spread and financially. Shame I don't have room the brag properly as this will be a rushed one written on shitty Amtrak wi-fi. Apologies for lack of pictures and formatting.

Week 7:

Outright - 12/14
Spread - 11/14
SFBOTW - 1/1

Overall:
Outright - 51/105
Spread - 52/105
SFBOTW - 3/7

Buccs @ Vikings -6.5
Tough one but I like this to be a close game so I'll take the points.

Buccs +6.5 (Vikes win)

Panthers @ Bears -9
The Bears have maybe the best defence in the league so this could get out of hand, but 9 is a lot.

Panthers +9 (Bears win)

Seahawks @ Lions -1
The Lions are shit and only have a passing game, the Hawks are good and have an awesome secondary. This is only going one way.

Seahawks +1 (and to win) SFBOTW

Packers @ Jaguars +16
This will be a slaughter but you have to take a 3 score margin.

Jags +16 (Pack win)

Dolphins @ Jets -1
Another evenly matched encounter and in truth this could go either way. Home field and experience to get the W.

Jets -1

Chargers @ Browns +2.5
The Chargers are better than they performed second half last week, the Browns are not a good football team. I like SD to bounce back after the bye.

Chargers -2.5

Falcons @ Eagles -1
Another very tasty bet, the 6-0 Falcons as underdogs vs the turnover prone Eagles? Yes please.

Falcons +1 (and to win)

Redskins @ Steelers 4.5
Another one I feel very comfortable calling. RG3 is as good as billed and will make life difficult for Pittsburgh in what could be a shoot out.

Skins +4.5 (and to win)

Pats @ Rams +7
The Rams just got shown up by the Packers. Despite coming off a narrow divisional win I like NE to do the same. Plus it's in London so no home field for the Rams.

Pats -7

Colts @ Titans -3.5
Tough one. Titans just out scored the Bills and CJ exploded, but the Colts have been strong at home all year. I'll take the spread.

Colts +3.5 (Titans win)

Raiders @ Chiefs -1
I will never, ever, bet on Brady Quinn at less than a score, even if they are playing Oakland.

Raiders +1 (and to win)

Giants @ Cowboys +1
NY are the better team, but they struggled and looked pretty rough at times vs the Skins. The 'boys just lost Stephen Hill for the year though so I'll take the visitors.

Giants -1

Saints @ Broncos -6
The Saints offence is elite, the defence though is probably the worse in the league. I can't see them stopping Manning anywhere near enough to keep this close.

Broncos -6

49ers @ Cardinals +6.5
The Cardinals have lost 3 in a row and this will make it 4. San Fran should cover the spread.

49ers -6.5

Kick It Out

Before reading this I encourage you to go watch this and this.

Thirteen months ago football would have had you believe that racism was no longer an issue. It had been largely swept under the carpet and many higher up types congratulated themselves on a job well done. In the year since, this theory has been shown to be completely unfounded. The John Terry and Luis Suarez affairs put a national spotlight on the issue in England, and it seems to be rearing its ugly head across Europe every few weeks at the moment. I was at the Tottenham vs Lazio game in September that saw UEFA investigate the racist chanting heard from the visiting supporters. Upon hearing it in person your heart sinks to your stomach. What could the authorities do to quell this in the moment? This is why UEFA must make an example of the Serbian FA for the behaviour at tonight's game.

For anyone who hasn't clicked the above links and watched the video, England's Under 21s came under a barrage of abuse for most of the game, according to comments by Jordan Henderson, and were the target of missiles thrown on to the pitch. Much of this abuse was racially charged, with monkey noises clearly audible on the second of the above videos. England's players reacted angrily, as most anyone would in a similar situation, and Danny Rose, one of England's black players, was shown a red card for kicking a ball into the crowd in retaliation. A few skirmishes and scuffles then broke out on the pitch and down the tunnel. The only upside, if it can be seen as such, of this scene descending into on-field violence is that it means UEFA cannot ignore it, as they have been seen to have done on similar occasions in the past.

Severe punishments need to be handed out. If English football can be banned from European competition for two years because of the behaviour of its fans, as it was in the aftermath of the Heysel disaster, then UEFA needs to take similar action against Serbia in the wake of this abuse. Make the national team play games behind closed doors, exclude their club teams, do something to make an example of the Serbian FA, and for once be seen to be taking a stand on an issue.

Beating the Bookies: Week 7

Maybe my worst week yet (but bizarrely personally my most profitable) sees my overalls take another nasty hit. You should probably start betting against whatever I predict at this point. 

Week 5:

Outright: 5/14

Spread: 5/14

SFBOTW: 0/1

Overall:

Outright - 39/91

Spread - 41/91

SFBOTW - 2/6

Seahawks @ 49ers -7.5

This is awkward.

You have to like the points in this NFC West showdown. Whilst I except San Fran to play a lot better and Seattle to play a bit worse they should still make a game of it in primetime.

Seahawks +7.5 (49ers win)

Titans @ Bills -3

I'm going to go with the visitors here. Both teams are pretty poor but coming off upset wins, so it could go either way.

Titans +3 (and to win)

Cowboys @ Panthers +1

This is another evenly matched game between two teams who think they are a lot better than they are. I'll take the homefield and the points even though I probably shouldn't.

Panthers +1 (and to win)

Ravens @ Texans -6

I would have been all over the Ravens at these odds before they lost their two defensive lynch pins in Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb (making it 3 of their 5 best defenders out of the year). As such I'll shy away from this one where money is concerned but let's say the Texans for the sake of it.

Texans -6 (and to win)

What beautiful triceps you had Mr. Lewis.

Browns @ Colts -3

Winning a game is not something the Browns are used to handling. I'm gonna say they are still in shock and will be 3 scores down by the second quarter.

Colts -3 

I'd let him make me aware of breast cancer.

Cardinals @ Vikings -6

A very nice match-up between two teams with great defences. Kolb should find Jared Allen introducing him to ground a fair bit, but the Cards are the masters of the close game finish so I'll pick them to beat a healthy spread.

Cardinals +6 (Vikings to win)

Redskins @ Giants -6.5

As I'll be there trying to get RG3 to give me his phone number I'll call the big upset here.

Redskins +6.5 (and to win)

Packers @ Rams +5

St. Louis have been good at home, but not good enough to beat the Packers whilst still missing their best receiver. 

Packers -5

It'll be St. Louis' turn at free-fall come Sunday

Doing his best Matt Cassell impression.

Saints @ Buccs +2.5

Vegas may still think the Saints are rudderless, but I do not. SFBOTW time! (I'm aware that my sure fire bets have not been firing lately, and I vow never to trust the Bengals ever again).

Saints -2.5 SFBOTW!!!!

Correctly identifying the end zone for the 1st time since week 1.

Jets @ Patriots -10.5

It's a big spread with NY coming off a healthy win and the Pats off a demoralising (not to mention physical) loss. I'll take it, but wouldn't be surprised if the Pats send a statement.

Jets +10.5 (Pats to win)

The legion of boom showing how it is done.

Anyone would be shocked at losing to the Titans.

Jaguars @ Raiders -4

This will be an ugly game for the neutrals, and whilst it could be close I like the Raiders to overwhelm Jacksonville in a hostile environment.

Raiders -4

Steelers @ Bengals +1

Very tempting odds here, both teams coming off bad losses to underdogs. I like Pittsburgh to have the toughness to bounce back.

Steelers -1

Lions @ Bears -5.5

Chicago should be rested up and ready coming off their bye. I can see Megatron having a big day vs a smaller secondary, but the Bears are the better team.

Bears -5.5 

*All odds accurate as of 16/10/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App.*