Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 8

A very solid week outright, but a woeful 6-9 on the spread and my SFBOTW losing means week 7 was extremely disappointing. The mixed blessing is that Gnome is still undefeated (#catofdestiny), which is both good and also bad as it shows a dumb animal has a better chance of predicting outcomes than me.

Let's move on to week 8, which should be another intriguing few days in the football world.

WARNING - Don't forget the clocks go back Saturday night in the UK, so the First Wave starts at 5pm and the second at 8pm etc. 

Week 7:
Outright = 10-5
Spread = 6-9
SFBOTW = 0-1
Animal Corner = 1-0

2013/14:
Outright = 69-38
Spread = 52-52-3 
SFBOTW = 4-3
Animal Corner = 3-0

All Time:
Outright = 235-129
Spread = 192-166-6 
SFBOTW = 12-11-1 
Animal Corner = 7-2-1

Thursday Night

Panthers @ Buccaneers +5.5 Sky Sports 1

The Panthers have quietly got themselves on a bit of a run, with confident wins over Minnesotta and St. Louis. Tampa, meanwhile, are stuck winless in the Schiano soap opera, and don't look like causing too much more of a challenge for a team that is finally getting its talent in position to fulfill their potential. I only see one outcome here, even despite it being in Tampa and a divisional game.

5.5 is easily comfortable enough for me to side with the visitors here.

Panthers -5.5  SFBOTW

Sunday First Wave

Cowboys @ Lions -3 

Two dangerous 4-3 teams go head to head here, with Dallas coming off a crucial divisional win over Philly and the Lions losing out at home to Cincy. This should be an offense dominated shoot out from the get out, and I'm loath to call a winner either way. That said, I think Dallas are the more convincing 4-3 team having lost narrowly to strong Denver, KC and SD teams (how about that AFC West) in all three of their defeats.

What with picking Dallas to win, I'm obviously going to be lapping up the +3 points here.

Cowboys +3 (and to win)

49ers @ Jaguars (Wembley) +17 Sky Sports 2

The second international series game is here, and whilst it is unlikely to be the close encounter the Steelers/Vikings game was, it should still be an entertaining game. The 49ers are clawing back to form after a shakey start with a nice win over Tennessee on the road (no easy matter), whereas the Jaguars' troubles continue with another convincing defeat to the Chargers. Open and shut case in terms of the winner here, I'm afraid.

In terms of how close it will be, 17 points is obviously a generous margain, and one I'm loath to call either way. On the one hand SF are clearly 17 points better than their opponents, but will their longer travel affect them worse, and will the Jags raise their game in the spotlight, the same way they did versus Denver. I'll hand this over to #catofdestiny

49ers                                       Jaguars

No surprises really as she goes with the feline choice again. 

Jaguars + 17 (49ers win)


Browns @ Chiefs -7.5

Nobody saw the Chiefs being the only undefeated team at this stage early in the season, and whilst their schedule has been soft (only one win over a + .500 team) they are a far cry from last years Arizona, grabbing wins off both a suffocating defence and solid, reliable, offence. Things won't get much tougher here with a visit from the Browns, who are a whole different team without Hoyer, and wholeheartedly failed to keep pace with GB last week. 

7.5 is fairly hefty for a low scoring team, but I can't see the Browns getting more than 2 touchdowns on them. I'll take it all day.

Chiefs -7.5 

Dolphins @ Patriots -7

Miami managed to lose out to hamstrung Buffalo, and seem to have fallen off the pace after their promising start. They will have a much tougher divisional test this week with a trip to Foxborough. The Patriots meanwhile managed to lose to the Jets despite having Gronk back (and performing), partly thanks to a rather obscure special teams flag. Despite their conflicting results, I can't see NE losing back to back divisional games.

I'm very torn over this spread, as whilst I definitely think the Pats will win, I'm not sure they'll make it convincing. That said, it is still only one score, so I think I'll grudgingly side with them to bounce back.

Patriots -7

Bills @ Saints -12.5

Buffalo are coming off a win over Miami, and are performing better than most would after losing their starting QB. New Orleans meanwhile are cementing their place as one of the strongest teams in the league with Sean Payton back. In NO this should be a fairly one sided battle.

12.5 is fairly hefty spread, despite my belief the Saints will win convincingly. Not one I'd like to have to call either way, but it's just big enough for me to think the Bills could cover.

Bills +12.5 (Saints to win)

Giants @ Eagles -5

NY finally get off the starting block this season, but it was far from a polished performance against an equally torrid Vikings side. That said, a win is a win, and the lack of turnovers make it an encouraging one for big blue. Philly meanwhile look to be regressing from their early season promise, and losing Vick could hurt them more than initially suspected. I think this will be a close run thing, but one the Eagles ultimately squeeze out. 

5 points is a healthy margin in what I think will be a nail biter. I'll take the points here.

Giants +5 (Eagles to win)

Sunday Second Wave

Jets @ Bengals -6.5 

Geno and the Jets are one of the more inconsistent teams in the league right now, seeming to either play at the turnover prone, ineffective level we are used to, or pulling games like Sunday or versus Atlanta out of nowhere. As such it's hard to guess which team will  be playing versus the Bengals this week, but as their hosts are a defensively built, powerful team coming off an impressive road win over Detroit, it's hard to go against them. 

6.5 is easily comfortable enough to back that up with the spread. 

Bengals -6.5 

Steelers @ Raiders +1

I remember the Steelers getting upset in this game last year, and how surprising it was at the time. This year, it would not be a shocker if the Raiders won - they are been playing far above expectations and the Steelers have under performed from their usual standards. This is a tough one to call, as the Raiders are not a good team on paper, but thanks to an inventive defensive coordinator and a surprisingly capable Pryor they are no easy opponent. Pittsburgh meanwhile look a different team with Leveon Bell back in the fold, and handled the Ravens in a typically tight encounter last week. I'm going to call the slight upset and say the Raiders notch another win here.

The spread isn't as high as I'd like, and it's effectively a pick 'em. I'll be avoiding this one.

Raiders +1 (and to win)

Falcons @ Cardinals -2.5

Atlanta managed to hold off the Buccs despite being decimated by injuries, whereas the Cardinals got convincingly beaten by a strong Seattle side at home. That acknowledged, the Cardinals are my choice to win this game. With Patrick Peterson matched up on (at best) a less than 100% Roddy White, this should be a tough game for the Falcons offence against one of the most talented defences in the league. Offensively the Cardinals win need to play better than they did versus Seattle to win, but the Falcons defence is not on the same level that the 'Hawks is. 

The spread is easily comfortable enough to be happy with.

Cardinals -2.5 

Redskins @ Broncos -13.5 Sky Sports 2

The Redskins could be finally getting back to form (too little too late?) with a win over the Bears (albeit minus Cutler for most of the game), whereas Denver showed some huge chinks in their armour versus the Colts, so this should be an interesting game. Despite those conflicting results the Broncos are still the favourites, and the match up of Peyton Manning on a soft Redskins defence (their secondary can't play the same aggressive man coverage that plagued Manning in Indy) is a very favourable one. For the Skins to win, RG3 will have to be let off the leash and put up some serious numbers. 

13.5 is a very large spread, but it could easily get that one-sided. That said, I'm expecting a shoot out - so I'll take these points.

Redskins +13.5 (Broncos to win)

Sunday Night

Packers @ Vikings +10

Green Bay handled the Browns better than expected, and Freeman's first start for the Vikings was not a smooth one, losing to the 0-6 Giants. His accuracy was not good, but some of that can be put down to not having time to gel with the Vikings WRs, and get in sync with their offence. Excuses aside, those problems won't get fixed in a (short) week, so I don't see his first start in Minnesota being much more favourable.

10 points is large margin, but one they should comfortably cover, even in a divisional game.

Packers -10 

Monday Night

Seahawks @ Rams +10.5

The loss of Bradford is obviously huge for St. Louis, and changes this from what would have been an interesting match up to what could be a blowout. There is no chance the Rams can get moving on offence versus a brutal defence without him, and Seattle being the ruthless competitors they are will not let up an inch. 

It's a large spread, but they'll cover, probably with a fake punt 24 points up. 

Seahawks -10.5 

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 7

Week 6 included the most one-sided games, going into it, that we've seen in a while, so it's not surprise I bounced back with a solid 11-4 outright. However, despite me picking the winners more often than not, a lot of teams broke the spread against me - whether it was Jax or Buffalo playing their opponents closer than I anticipated, or teams like SF winning more convincingly than I predicated.

Still, despite a paltry 8-7 outright, both my key markets hit with my SFBOTW coming in comfortably and Gnome going 2-0 this season. 

Week 7 should be a hard week on the face of it, with nothing in particular catching my eye... but let's get into it.


Week 6:
Outright = 11-4
Spread = 8-7
SFBOTW = 1-0
Animal Corner = 1-0

2013/14:
Outright = 59-33 
Spread = 46-43-3 
SFBOTW = 4-2
Animal Corner = 2-0

All Time:
Outright = 225-124
Spread = 186-157-6 
SFBOTW = 12-10-1 
Animal Corner = 6-2-1

Thursday Night

Seahawks @ Cardinals + 6 Sky Sports 1

The Cardinals just lost to the SF, whereas the Seahawks struggled at home to beat the Titans. Despite those conflicting results this should be a very interesting encounter, and a divisional game on the road is never one where you want to hand the win to an albeit stronger team.

I definitely think the Cardinals have the potential to run the Hawks close, even if they probably won't come away with the win. Not one I'd like to bet on either way, but I'll take the points here.

Cardinals +6 (Seahawks win)

Sunday First Wave

Buccaneers @ Falcons -9.5

The Glennon era in Tampa is not off to a great start, but the Falcons are in as bad shape having lost star WR Julio Jones for the season. I have few misgivings about picking Atlanta to win at home here, even with their injuries they have enough weapons to get the job done. 

9.5 is far too large a spread to feel comfortable with though, so I definitely like the Buccs to cover.

Buccs +9.5 (Falcons win)

Rams @ Panthers -5.5

I don't think many foresaw the Rams smashing the Texans like that, but the Panthers overcome the hapless Vikings comfortably in their game. At home this looks to favour Carolina, but St. Louis are no pushovers.

5.5 makes me a little nervous either way, and I'll definitely be avoiding this game like the plague. Over to the beast.

A nose towards St. Louis before settling on Carolina. Clearly she shares my misgivings.

Panthers -5.5 

Bengals @ Lions -1 Sky Sports 2

Another tough one to call, with both coming off road wins even if Detroit's was the more convincing. At home I wouldn't hesitate to take Cincy here, but they have struggled away. The Lions have been equally inconsistent, so I am really torn. 

I think I'll side with who I think are the better team, even if recent results give me fair cause for concern. Definitely one to avoid.

Bengals +1 (and to win)

Bills @ Dolphins -8

The Bills shocked me by running Cincy close, and fair play to Thad Lewis - the kid can play. @ Miami coming off a bye will be  a fair tougher prospect however, so I don't expect them to slip up to Buffalo here.

8 points is a large margin though, especially for a team that isn't necessarily one of the strongest in the league. I like Buffalo to just cover.

Bills +8 (Dolphins to win)

Chargers @ Jaguars +9.5

I didn't think a Chargers win on MNF was out of the question, but a win built on a strong ground game, stingy defence, and the secondary closing out the game? That's just not Chargers football. At Jacksonville they should improve to 4-3, which may surprise some people, but not me. 

9.5 is very healthy, but I like the Bolts to win by more than a score, Jacksonville raised their game against much favour Denver, but they won't play at that level week in week out. 

Chargers -9.5

Patriots @ Jets +4

Brady proved again why he is one of the very best at game winning drives, despite not getting a lot of help from his WRs. The Jets fell to Pittsburgh in an ugly game at home, and there's no reason to think NE will be any less of challenge, even if they came close last time they played.

Patriots -4 

Cowboys @ Eagles (Pick 'em)

Key NFC East match up here, with a divisional title to stake a claim on. Even away I like the Cowboys matching but with a weak Eagles secondary, but the Eagles fast paced offence should quickly tire and already decimated 'Boys defensive line. If Foles can limit turnovers this should be very interesting, and I'm going to make a controversial selection and take them to edge Romo out off the back of more explosive running from Shady. 

Eagles 

Bears @ Redskins (Pick 'em)

Another even encounter, but one I feel far more confident in with a dominant Bears team travelling to struggling Washington. Whilst the 'Skins have the potential to win most games, Chicago should look to continue their offensive hot streak against a terrible secondary. 

Bears 

Sunday Second Wave

49ers @ Titans +4

Tennessee held the Seahawks to within a score at Century Link, no mean feat. The 49ers eased into a lead against the Cardinals that is not a great indication of what was a back and forth game. I like the Titans at home to give anyone a game, but SF not winning here would definitely constitute an upset. 

4 points being the marginal spread that it is I'll stick with the Niners.

49ers -4

Texans @ Chiefs -6.5 Sky Sports 2

No definite confirmation yet of whether Schaub's injury will sideline him versus KC, but either way I like the Chiefs (fresh off of a divisional beat down of Oakland) to continue their winning ways at home. Kansas City are playing great football right now, and as one of only two undefeated teams left standing they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It is fairly shocking that the AFC West could well be following in the NCF's footsteps as going from one of the worst divisions in football to one of the best.

I like the Chiefs to win by a score here, off the back of their great defence and low risk, high reward offence.

Chiefs -6.5 

Browns @ Packers -11

Cleveland showed they are back to their old selves minus Hoyer, whereas GB squeezed past Baltimore despite taking hits on the injury front. It is very hard to look past the Packers at home in this one, but I don't think it will be a blow out.

This is a very generous spread, considering the Packers are down to bare bones at WR. They'll look to rely on Lacy more in the ground game, but even with Cleveland not looking likely to put up numbers, or many points, their defence should keep close enough to  break this.

Browns +11 (Packers to win)

Ravens @ Steelers -1

It's a divisional game, and the Ravens may be coming off a loss compared to the Steelers finally getting a win, but I still think there is a big gulf between these two sides. The reigning champs are by no means the best in the league, but they are a solid team - and should take advantage of an injured and sub-par Pittsburgh squad, albeit one that is slowly clawing its way back to form.

A very attractive spread with the Ravens underdogs makes this my SFBOTW.

Ravens +1 (and to win) SFBOTW

Sunday Night

Broncos @ Colts +5.5

The marquee game of the week sees Peyton Manning return to his old stomping grounds in what will be a very warm reception for the league's most dominant passer. Luck and the Colts will be looking to bounce back from a MNF loss that was as much due to their own miscues as it was great play from San Diego, but even so I like the Broncos to take this one and remain perfect.

The spread is comfortable I feel, but the Colts are always capable of pulling off an upset - and if any organisation is set up with the knowledge to out scheme Manning it is his former employers. 

Broncos -5.5 

Monday Night

Vikings @ Giants -3.5

Two floundering squads, both desperate for a win, makes this an intriguing game. The Vikings got well and truly stomped by Carolina last week, whereas the Giants continued their sloppy play in a loss to Chicago, albeit not by as much as I anticipated. I do think the Giants are finding their feet faster, but should Josh Freeman get the nod this week it could be Minnesota the shot in the arm they so sorely need. 

I like the Giants to take this one at home and finally get off the mark, but the spread makes this an easy choice for the Vikes.

Vikings +3.5 (Giants to win)

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 6

I wasn't expecting much from last week as it was a brutal slate of games to call, but I would have liked a little better than 8-6 outright and 6-8 on the spread. Particularly vexing was San Diego's convincing loss to Oakland, sending my SFBOTW category back to comparative levels with my regular guesses.

At least Gnome proved she is an astute pundit, nailing her first choice convincingly. It is both funny and a little depressing that the animals have a higher hit percentage than my well informed choices. 

Week 5:
Outright = 8-6
Spread = 6-8
SFBOTW = 0-1
Animal Corner = 1-0

2013/14:
Outright = 48-29 
Spread = 38-36-3 
SFBOTW = 3-2

All Time:
Outright = 214-120
Spread = 178-150-6 
SFBOTW = 11-10-1 
Animal Corner = 5-2-1

Thursday Night:

Giants @ Bears -9.5 Sky Sports 1

The Giants have been my most consistent team this season - I've gone against them every week and am 5-0. This week's match up is no easier for the floundering team, with a turnover hungry Bears' defence facing an offence that seems to enjoy giving the ball away. 9.5 is a large amount, but in Chicago I think the Bears should just about win by 10. 

Bears -9.5 

Sunday First Wave:

Packers @ Ravens +1 Sky Sports 2

One of the more attractive spreads on the face it, in my opinion. Even with Matthews out for the foreseeable future, the Packers should score enough points to outpace Flacco and the Ravens. I like GB to come in and win by at least a score. 
Packers -1 

Bengals @ Bills +7.5

With EJ Manuel out this game should be fairly one-sided. The Bengals weren't exactly prolific in their 13-6 win over NE, but their defence shut down Brady for almost an entire game. Even with limited weapons, that's an impressive feat, and they should win here by a solid margain. 

Bengals -7.5 

Lions @ Browns +1

Even with Megatron questionable to play, I still fancy the Lions' chances here. A Weeden led Browns team is far less dangerous than one with Hoyer at the helm, and whilst their defence played outstandingly in the second half versus Buffalo, having a QB who can actually throw the football attempting to score against them will be slightly more challenging. 

Lions -1 

Rams @ Texans -9

Interesting one here, as the Texans are typically much stronger at home. I think the Rams can stay in this game enough to break the spread, even if it's a gritty Bengals/Pats kind of game, with both defences dominating. 

Rams +9 (Texans win)

Raiders @ Chiefs -9.5

Pryor proved he was the real deal versus San Diego, despite playing behind a patchwork o-line. That o-line will face a much tougher test in this game, though, against a dominant Chiefs defence that boasts standout sack-master Houston. The Raiders own defence has also been playing well lately, but don't match up well against KC's explosive quick passing offence. I think 9.5 is a little generous for the Chiefs, but I'll still take it. They've proved to be one of the most consistent teams in the league, and the Raiders will need to feast on turnovers which the Chiefs just don't typically provide to be in with a chance.  

Chiefs -9.5 

Panthers @ Vikings -1

Josh Freeman provides an instant, and considerable, upgrade over Christian Ponder, but it takes more than a week to learn a new offence. The Panthers are coming off a tough loss to the Cardinals, but their elite front 7 should limit the Vikings' attack enough for Cam to do his thing.

Panthers +1 (and to win)

Steelers @ Jets -1

Geno smith looked the real deal versus Atlanta, and nobody was more surprised than me. He simply didn't look like the same QB who gifted Tennessee the game 2 weeks ago, and couldn't have asked for a much smoother encore to his heroics than hosting the struggling Steelers. 

Jets -1 

Eagles @ Buccaneers Pick 'em

It's Foles versus Glennon in what should be a very interesting game, which will come down to Philly's excellent offence versus Tampa's solid defence. I like Philly to get the win here, as he proved in leading them to their win over the Giants he can operate well in their explosive offence. Glennon should have an easier time than most weeks completely passes, but I don't think he'll be consistent enough to match scores. SFBOTW

Eagles

Sunday Second Wave:

Jaguars @ Broncos -26.5

Crikey, what a spread. Remember though, this is a historically  bad team playing at a historically outstanding one. There is no chance Jax can keep pace the way Romo and the Cowboys did, and the only thing that makes me think Denver won't ease past this huge spread is the concern they might pull Manning and their starters long before the end. 

Broncos -26.5

Titans @ Seahawks -13.5

Seattle will be hungry for revenge following their late loss to Indy, but Tennessee is no easy test. Whilst I think the 'Hawks will definitely win at home, the spread makes me a little nervous. I really can't decide on this one, so will hand it over to the lil' monster...

Titans                                  Seahawks

A tentative selection, she must share my misgivings, but nevertheless she's picked the Titans to run Seattle close.

Titans +13.5 (Seahawks to win)

Saints @ Patriots -1 Sky Sports 2

NE have fallen on hard times, despite their still impressive 4-1 record. This is another though game, with a rolling 5-0 Saints team coming to town. I like Brady to match scores with Brees, but ultimately his lack of weapons will cost him in a narrow loss.

Saints +1 (and to win)

Cardinals @ 49ers -11

The 49ers have not been consistently putting up big points, despite their demolition of Houston at the weekend. The Cardinals present a tough contest with a dangerous if not consistent offence, strong defence and deadly special teams. I like Arizona to keep this one close, being the divisional grudge match it is. 

Cardinals +11 (49ers win)

Sunday Night:

Redskins @ Cowboys -6

Coming off the Cowboys impressively narrow (and wildly entertaining) loss to Denver, this seems like a no-brainer. My only concern is that it is a divisional encounter, and the Redskins had their number last season. I'll still take the Cowboys at home, but am not as confident on it as most will be. 

Cowboys -6 

Monday Night: 

Colts @ Chargers +1

SD fell to rivals Oakland whereas the Colts orchestrated and impressive win over Seattle. Whilst the Chargers have the home field here, and an offence capable of matching scores with most in the league (when they don't put themselves in a 17 point hole), you can't look past the Colts here at such a neglible spread. I do think the Bolts are more than capable of winning this game though, so it's not SFBOTW worhy. 

Colts -1 

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 5

A bounce back to form this week at 10-5 outright and 8-6-1 on the spread, plus my SFBOTW hitting very comfortably (good old reliable Titans). 

This weeks games are mostly un-backable, just some terrible terrible games to call - so if you're ever tempted to take a week off the sauce, make it this one. There are a few diamonds in the rough though, so read on for which ones to target.

Week 4:
Outright = 10-5
Spread = 8-6-1
SFBOTW = 1-0

2013/14:
Outright = 40-23 
Spread = 32-28-3 
SFBOTW = 3-1

All Time:
Outright = 206-114
Spread = 172-142-6 
SFBOTW = 11-9-1 
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)

Thursday Night

Bills @ Browns -4.5 Sky Sports 1

A historically un-sexy Thursday night game for us this week on the face of it, but with both teams coming off surprise wins at the weekend this could actually be an even and entertaining game. Cleveland's offence somehow seems to have improved by leaps and bounds since trading Trent, but I'm not sold yet - I want to see them beat someone better than the Vikings or Bengals (in a home divisional trap game) before I believe things have changed for the Browns. The Bills, meanwhile, were more opportunistic than great in their win over an inconsistent Ravens' outfit. I like the points here, but Cleveland should grab another win at home if they are what they have looked over the last 2 weeks. 

Bills +4.5 (Browns win)

Sunday First Wave

Saints @ Bears OTB

OTB, tough road game for NO, but they should scrape it. 

Patriots @ Bengals -1

OTB, but this could be a tighter game than the bookies will set.

Lions @ Packers -7

The Lions were impressive in a confident win over Chicago, but away at Lambeau versus a Packers' team fresh off the bye is not a good recipe for success for any team. I like GB to rack up another win here, having had 2 weeks to mull over their wasteful performance @ Cincy. The points are a little much and would feel more comfortable at -6.5, but I'll take it.

Packers -7 

Seahawks @ Colts -1

Seattle struggled to beat Houston, but that game was never going to be a gimme, especially the majority of their offensive line backups due to injuries. This game won't be a walk over either, with the Colts in a nice run of form off two away wins (yes, one was versus the Jags), but -1 is a pretty pathetic spread for maybe the strongest team in the league. SFBOTW contender, especially if they can get some of those questionable OL to kit up.

Seahawks -1

Ravens @ Dolphins -3 Sky Sports 3

Very tough one to call, with the Ravens coming off an upset to Buffalo and the Dolphins falling back to earth with a convincing loss to NO. I still think the Ravens have the better pedigree here, and the points are just an added bonus. This could definitely go the way of a blow out to either side though. Avoid. 

Ravens +3 (and to win)

Eagles @ Giants +1

At 0-4, the Giants are easily the worst non-terrible team in the NFL. They aren't as bad as their record, but they shouldn't get people's respect just for being a big-market, former SB winning squad, either. That said, their problems are mostly of their own making, rather than simply lacking the personnel to win (in Jacksonville's case). The Eagles meanwhile are also better than 1-3 would suggest, having played a fairly tough schedule so far. This will be a game both will be desperate to win, and advantage has to go to Philly despite the fact my gut is telling me NY are going to grab a much needed W here. As I'm indecisive, I'm turning this over to the latest addition to the menagerie:

I guess sneezing yourself onto the pick counts.

Eagles -1

Chiefs @ Titans +2.5

Another brutal game to call, with both teams playing very well. The Chiefs just beat the more dangerous of the NY teams though, and away, so I like them to grab another win here. The Titans are more than capable of pulling off an upset though, if KC's offence isn't efficient. 2.5 is a marginal spread, so we'll give them the benefit of the doubt at 4-0. I'll be avoiding this.

Chiefs -2.5 

Jaguars @ Rams -11.5

This should be a much needed easy win for the Rams, but these are the sort of games the Jags will be eyeing up if they are to avoid going 0-16. 11.5 is a huge spread for a Rams team that hasn't been explosive on offence, I like them to win by a score or two, but may actually do the unthinkable and back the Jags to keep an ugly game within reach. Another one to avoid.

Jaguars +11.5 (Rams to win)

Sunday Second Wave

Panthers @ Cardinals +1

Yet another tough game to call, with the Cardinals pulling off the away win in Tampa, and the Panthers fresh off a bye following their mauling of the Giants. Two great defensive front 7s will make this a close one, but both teams also boast offenses capable of making their a shootout to boot. I like Carolina to edge this one, but the Cardinals could easily win this as well. Avoid!

Panthers -1

Broncos @ Cowboys +7.5 Sky Sports 3

Finally, a game I feel confident about the result in, and an attractive spread on top. Denver have been straight up killing it this year, putting up touchdowns like they are going out of fashion, whereas Dallas just got out classed in San Diego. I like the Broncos to be ruthless and win by a good margin here.

Broncos -7.5 

Sunday Night

Texans @ 49ers -7

Houston were unlucky not to close out their game versus Seattle, whereas SF despite struggling early on managed to outscore the Rams fairly comfortably in the end. I like the 49ers at home to continue to impress - I can't see the Texans offence putting up many points against an always formidable defence, so this will be on Kaepernick and his motley crew of targets to play clinically and grab the win. 7 points seems about right for me, so I'll stick with the Niners.

49ers -7 

Chargers @ Raiders +4.5

A brutal 04:35 kick off in this game, so die-hard West Coast fans will be better off getting up and watching this before work Monday rather than trying to stay awake. SD are coming off the back of a confident performance over Dallas, despite dealing with their fair share of injuries, whereas a Flynn-led Oakland struggled mightily in their loss to Washington, despite the Skins giving them ample opportunities to put the game to bed. Having Pryor back should make this competitive, but I still feel very confident the Chargers will come into Oakland and grab a valuable division win by a healthy margin. Despite losing veteran pass-rusher Freeney in their last win, they have have been putting up enough big scorelines to force an unconvincing Raiders' offence to play catch-up. 

Chargers -4.5 SFBOTW  

Monday Night

Jets @ Falcons -9.5

The Jets are in no danger of winning this game to the Falcons in Atlanta, even despite their narrow loss to NE. 9.5 points is a heady margin, but definitely one I'd feel comfortable taking.

Falcons -9.5

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 4

What a crazy week, and a terrible one to be wagering on. At 8-8 outright, and a shoddy 6-9-1 on the spread, it wasn't just me who lost out this week due to the unprecedented number of upsets around the league. On top of all these shock results, there were a couple of games that I just plain called wrong, and will have to eat humble pie over.

Hopefully I can recover my form going into this week, otherwise it will be a long and austere October in the Gibbs household. 

Week 3:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 6-9
SFBOTW = 0-1

2013/14:
Outright = 30-18 (63%)
Spread = 24-22-2 (51%)
SFBOTW = 2-1 (66%)

All Time:
Outright = 196-109 
Spread = 164-136-5 
SFBOTW = 10-9-1 
Animal Corner = 4-2-1 (returning soon)

Thursday Night

49ers @ Rams +3 Sky Sports 1

In many ways, the Colts beating up on a lack-lustre 49ers squad was the best thing for this spread. If the Niners had won we'd be looking at a much more unattractive point difference, but as it is I like SF at -3. The last two extremely tight meetings between these two sides, plus the Rams' homefield advantage, give me some cause for concern, but with their own terrible week 3 performance against Dallas to wear I like the Niners to get back to form quicker - and 3 points is almost perfect for a potential OT game.

Disclaimer - with SF missing their two defensive lynch pins in Willis and Aldon Smith, this game gets even more tenuous. 

49ers -3 

Sunday First Wave

Ravens @ Bills +3.5

People should be realising by now that the Bills' pre-season flashes have not developed into any kind of regular season fire, coming off an ugly loss to the Jets on Sunday. Baltimore, meanwhile, whilst not having excelled in losses to Denver and a narrow win over Cleveland, exploded against Houston to thrash them 30-9. Even in Buffalo, this is a no brainer. SFBOTW contender.

Ravens -3.5

Bengals @ Browns +4.5

Cincy shocked me, and themselves a little bit, by rallying to beat a strong GB side after turning the ball over no less than 4 times in a row. Cleveland meanwhile made me eat my hat by pulling out the win against the Vikings led by Hoyer the Destroyer. I am shocked, but think it's a much a testament to how bad the Vikings are rather than the Browns actually being good. They have some nice pieces on offence (Cameron) and a very solid defence, but they'll still find a way to lose. I'm pretty bullish about a far more talented Bengals squad taking this by a score. 

Bengals -4.5

Bears @ Lions -2.5

Interesting match up here between Chicago and Detroit. I like the Bears here, coming off a strong performance against Pittsburgh, but the Lions just beat the Redskins in a shoot-out, and the match up of a scary Lions d-line vs a shaky Chicago pass-pro is not a good one. The points swing this in Chicago's favour, and I'll think they'll grab the win to boot.

Bears +2.5 (and to win)

Seahawks @ Texans +3

The Texans aren't as bad as they looked last week, and the Seahawks aren't as good. That said, Seattle are still very solid favourites in my mind. They'll may fall victim to the same road struggles that plagued them versus Carolina, but should still have enough in the tank to push past Houston by a score.

Seahawks -3 

Colts @ Jaguars +9.5

The Colts shocked the league by knocking off SF, and the Jags game went according to plan in a blow-out loss. 9.5 is generous, this one won't even be close.

Colts -9.5 

Giants @ Chiefs -4.5

Tough one to call in my mind, but I think the Chiefs have the edge here. They match up well and should pick up where the Panthers left off harrying Eli all day and causing turnovers. That said it's hard to imagine the Giants at 0-4 as it is the Chiefs at 4-0 - but sooner or later the power balances have to shift in the NFL, and the sheer lack of talent on NY's roster is astounding. 

Chiefs -4.5

Steelers @ Vikings -1 Sky Sports 2

When announced this looked like a rather sexy if rugged game to treat the UK fans to, but now we have two 0-3 teams battling for their lives in Wembley. This should be an extremely tight game, and one I am very loath to have to call either way. The whole London thing nullifies the Vikings' home field advantage, but I look at their talent on offence, defence and ST and they have a Steelers team suffering from metal fatigue banged to rights. Despite that, QB being as crucial as it is, Big Ben is a hell of an upgrade over a frankly terrible Christian Ponder. Due to what I think will be a low scoring, ugly game of football I'll take the Steelers, but am not at all confident either way.

Steelers +1 (and to win)

Cardinals @ Buccaneers -3

Both these teams struggled to keep up with vastly superior outfits at the weekend, so this should be an interesting encounter. Arizona have had the tougher schedule, and looked a lot more promising, so despite the fact it is in Tampa I'll go with the Cardinals. 

Cardinals +3 (and to win)

Sunday Second Wave

Jets @ Titans -4.5

The Titans showed a lot of poise (particularly Locker) to rally from behind and beat a decent Chargers side. They are definitely one of the surprise teams of 2013, and despite the fact they hold the same record as the Jets this should be an open and shut case for a buoyed Titans squad. 

Titans -4.5 SFBOTW

Cowboys @ Chargers +1 Sky Sports 2

Very interesting match-up between two teams who are, in my mind at least, very similar. This should be a high scoring affair, and is basically a toss up for me. Dez Bryant should wreak havoc amongst SD's secondary, but the Chargers will benefit from getting a number of key players back who were missing from their narrow and unfortunate loss to Tennessee (Fluker, Butler etc.) I'll go with the home side here, but it really is anyone's game.

Chargers +1 (and to win)

Eagles @ Broncos -11

I was surprised the Eagles lost to KC, but not that the Broncos blew out Oakland. This should be another win for Denver, but 11 points is just a fraction too much for me to feel comfortable betting on them. In what should be a high scoring game I'll take the points cushion. That said, Manning should cut the Eagles limp secondary to shreds, so it will be up to Philly's offence to keep the game competitive. 

Eagles +11 (Broncos to win)

Redskins @ Raiders +3

Oakland didn't look great versus Denver, but had some flashes of great play. The Redskins meanwhile lost another agonizingly close shoot-out, and must be feeling like this really isn't their year. 

No odds yet for this game, so I'll update in the week. I expect a spread of around +4.5 for Oakland, and think I would side with the Redskins in that instance, despite their 0-3 record.

Pretty close to what I was expecting in terms of an opening line, and I'll take the Redskins at -3 and be happy with it. They may have a shocking pass defence but they still have too much quality for the Raiders to handle. 

Redskins -3

Sunday Night

Patriots @ Falcons -1

The Patriots handled the Buccs comfortably, but Atlanta got rocked by a late Miami surge. This should be a tight contest, and I think I like the Falcons on the back of their home field in a narrow encounter.

No odds for this game yet (no doubt dependent on Pats injury news). Update pending. I'm expecting close to a pick 'em.

The line has opened at Falcons -1, and I'll go with my gut and take them at that. This is the end of game that both teams play their best in, and it should be entertaining shoot out whoever wins.

Falcons -1 

Monday Night

Dolphins @ Saints -6.5

Fair play to Miami for continuing to notch up the wins. I don't think anyone expected 3-0 at this stage, and the Saints will have to continue to play strongly to avoid tarnishing their own undefeated record. In NO I think they have enough to win this game, but the large spread makes me a little edgy. 

Dolphins +6.5 (Saints to win)