Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 16

Week 15 was a strange one, on the one hand I was 8-8 in outrights, and there weren't THAT many huge upsets, on the other I tied my best ever spread rate with 11-5, and nailed my SFBOTW thanks to the Chiefs riding roughshod over Oakland. 

Week 16 looks like a tough one, but we need to make the most of it... football season is almost over *sad face*


Week 15:
Outright = 8-8
Spread = 11-5
SFBOTW = 1-0

2013/14:
Outright = 142-83 
Spread = 115-106-4
SFBOTW = 9-6
Animal Corner = 3-1

All Time:
Outright = 308-174
Spread = 255-220-7
SFBOTW = 17-14-1 
Animal Corner = 7-3-1

No Thursday Night football this season, more's the pity. I know most players hate it, but it sure is a nice little midweek treat. 

Sunday First Wave

Dolphins @ Bills +2.5

The obvious choice here is Miami. Their win at the weekend over NE puts them in a great position to make the post-season with a much easier schedule than Baltimore. They should handle the Bills here to bolster their wildcard bid, but I wouldn't be shocked if Buffalo sprung an upset coming off a road win.

The spread is small enough for me to stick with the 'Phins, but I have my doubts.

Dolphins -2.5 

Saints @ Panthers -3

Very interesting to the see the Panthers the favourites in this one after the way their last encounter played out. Whilst I'm expecting a much more back and forth game in this one, I still think New Orleans will take it.

The spread sweetens the deal.

Saints +3 (and to win)

Vikings @ Bengals -7.5

The Vikings impressed in their victory over Philly, whereas the Bengals lost out to a much more physical performance from Pittsburgh (I'm not just talking about that punt). I like the Bengals to grab this one, but it should be a close affair.

The spread makes this a fairly easy decision.

Vikings +7.5 (Bengals to win) SFBOTW, I guess...

Broncos @ Texans +10.5

This should be an open and shut case, all things considered. Despite their slip up to SD, Denver are still one of the very best teams in the football. Houston are not.

Ooh. Big spread but I'm expecting a Broncos team eager to wash the bad taste out of their mouth.

Broncos -10.5

Titans @ Jaguars +5.5

Divisional clash that will be a lot tighter than it would have been near the beginning of the season. Jacksonville are definitely on the right track even given their narrow loss to the Bills, whereas the Titans despite a close game lost out at home to 'Zona. I like Tennessee to win, but it is anyone's game.

The spread makes me favour the Jags here.

Jaguars +5.5 (Titans win)

Colts @ Chiefs -7

Kansas City just torched the Raiders thanks to a career day from Jamaal Charles. Now, I'm not expecting another performance like that from the stud RB (sorry fantasy owners), but he, and the Chiefs, should still put on a decent show versus a very hit and miss Colts outfit. 

The spread is very attainable for the Colts, who just kerb stomped the Texans.

Colts +7 (Chiefs to win)

Browns @ Jets -2.5

Eww. This is not a fun game to call, not even a little bit. Both of these teams just lost in fairly close games to better teams, but really we're scraping the NFL's barrel here. I guess I'll side with home side, all other things being basically equal. The Jets' big boys up front should force the Browns to throw, which is always entertaining (not that NY are much better in that department).

The spread is so small I'll stick with the Jets.

Jets -2.5

Buccaneers @ Rams -5.5

Interesting one, as the Rams shocked the Saints last week. I like the home side to continue their high level of play and hand Tampa another loss here, but I wouldn't be shocked if this went the other way.

The spread is moderate, but I'll stick with St. Louis. 

Rams -5.5 

Cowboys @ Redskins +2.5

The Cowboys at 7-7 still have a very good shot at winning their division with Philly's loss last week, even despite their own derptastic handing of the game to GB. Likely (and hopefully for those who are fans of watching Romo do Romo things) it will come down to their week 17 grudge match with the Eagles to decide the winner, but they'll need to win here first. Cousins looked pretty impressive against Atlanta, and shouldn't have a hard time in getting points versus a pathetic Cowboys' defence. Unfotunately the Skins aren't playing much better and are facing a dangerous offence. This will probably come down to who screws up the least, and Romo will save it all for when the world is watching next weekend.

The spread is, again, small enough to not have an impact for me.

Cowboys -2.5

Sunday Second Wave

Giants @ Lions -8.5

The Ravens really TUCKed (sorry) into the Lions' playoff hopes in a crushing loss on Monday, but luckily for them they're facing maybe the worst team in football right now. The Giants are just plain bad, with Eli frantically chasing the single season interception record. I actually fear for his life facing the Lions d-line behind some of the worst pass protection in football.

The spread is big, but NY are this bad.

Lions -8.5

Cardinals @ Seahawks -10.5

Divisional game which the Cards could really do with a win from to stay in the wildcard hunt (right now sitting just behind SF and Carolina). Despite their obvious quality they are playing in the one place you do not want to. Seattle haven't lost at home yet under Wilson, and they likely won't start now.

Big spread which swings me over.

Cardinals +10.5 (Seahawks win)

Steelers @ Packers NO SPREAD 

Tough one to predict in advance with Rodgers questionable. I'll tentatively say he suits up this week, and the Packers win. Even with Flynn they have a good chance at home, the Steelers are getting back to their old selves but aren't as good as a sloppy Bengals' performance last week made them appear.No spread whilst we are on A-Rod watch, I'll update this later on, but give me the Packers whatever the spread is in case I forget.

Patriots @ Ravens -2.5

Big loss for the Patriots and they'll be keen to get back on track, but it won't be an easy game against a Ravens' squad just heating up at the right time (sounds familiar). They'll need to actually score some touchdowns to beat the Pats though, and I think NE will scrape this one and make life difficult for Baltimore in terms of the post-season.

The spread is an added incentive. 

Patriots +2.5 (and to win)

Raiders @ Chargers -10

This game earlier in the season was the Chargers worst performance in a season of brutally narrow losses. They're basically out of the playoff hunt now as even with a 9-7 finish they are behind on tie-breakers to Miami and Baltimore. Coming off their massive and unexpected win @ Denver, they should handle a battered Raiders' squad comfortably.

The spread is big, and initially I was very tempted to take the Raiders, but I think the Chargers have improved massively since the last time they played.

Chargers -10 

Sunday Night

Bears @ Eagles -3

The Eagles will be desperate to win this and put themselves out in front in the East following their slip up @ Minnesota, and even with Cutler back I think they have a very good chance at home. This should be a close one but one they are more than capable of putting away.

The spread doesn't swing me.

Eagles -3

Monday Night

Falcons @ 49ers -13

The Niners aren't home and dry yet, and need to win here to better secure their wildcard spot. Fortunately they're hosting Atlanta, so this shouldn't even be in question.

Spread is large so I'll flip this.

Falcons +13 (49ers win)

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 15

Week 14 was very solid at 11-5 outright and 9-7 on the spread for a second week in row, if I keep this going it will be a very respectable finish. Unfortunately my SFBOTW lost for a second week running, so there's that.

Week 15... just 3 games left in the NFL regular season (sniff), but the consolation is we have some great match ups to look forward to.

Week 14:
Outright = 11-5
Spread = 9-7
SFBOTW = 0-1

2013/14:
Outright = 134-75 
Spread = 104-101-4
SFBOTW = 8-6
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 289-161
Spread = 235-208
SFBOTW = 16-14-1 
Animal Corner = 7-3-1

Thursday Night

Chargers @ Broncos -10.5 Sky Sports 1

Oh baby, the big one. A win here for San Diego could be the start of a wild card push, a loss will see them out of the running barring some real luck. If this was a week or two nearer the end of the season the Broncos could consider resting Manning ahead of the playoffs, but it is still too early to think that would be the case here. The short week won't do Peyton's bum ankle any favours, but even despite that and the must win implications for San Diego I can't see them pulling off the upset here.

The spread, as they say, changes everything. In a Thursday night divisional game with everything on the line I like SD to push them within 10.5. 

Chargers +10.5 (Broncos to win)

Sunday First Wave

Redskins @ Falcons -7

With the Redskins potentially benching RG3 for the rest of the season to avoid injuries in meaningless games, it is going to be hard for them to motivate themselves for this one. Even though the Falcons don't have much to play for themselves, and the Cousins factor could be a wild card, I think Atlanta have this one.

The spread is fairly hefty, so I think I'm going to flip flop over to the 'Skins here.

Redskins +7 (Falcons to win)

Bears @ Browns +1

Chicago comfortably handled the Cowboys last week, whereas the Browns blew a huge lead in their loss to NE. Even in Cleveland I like the Bears to pull this one off, even with Josh Gordon having the kind of year that proves he belongs on any team but this one.

Negligible spread is negligible. 

Bears -1 

Texans @ Colts -5.5

The Texans lost to Jacksonville, and will likely have the 1st overall pick in April. Pretty shocking stuff, and right now they are probably more concerned with their coaching situation than travelling to play their divisional rivals. All this means that I can't see them pulling off a result here, even if Indy have fallen off the pace a lot in recent weeks.

The spread is meaty but nothing they can't handle at home. I repeat, Houston just lost to the Jags.

Colts -5.5 

Bills @ Jaguars +2

Despite what the above might indicate, I'm not suggesting the last few weeks have been just down to their opponents ineptitude. Jax are actually performing quite well, not well enough to make any difference at this late stage, or keep Henne his job, but just well enough to play themselves out of the top pick. Good job guys, you can't even tank a season properly. I think they continue that trend here against a very lack-luster Buffalo squad. 

Again, a paltry spread that only provides a light seasoning.

Jaguars +2 (and to win)

Patriots @ Dolphins +2 Sky Sports 2

Ruh roh. The Patriots have lost Gronk. Terrible news for NE fans, and it's really quite amazing how they have gone from having the best TE situation in the league to one of the worst, all in a matter of months. All that aside, I still think they'll win against Miami in a crux divisional game that should see them lock up the division and send the Dolphins' playoff hopes back a notch.

Small spread changes nada.

Patriots -2 

Eagles @ Vikings +4.5

Philly overcame both the Lions and some crazy weather to grab another win last week. At this point it's looking like they are going to steal the divisional title away from Dallas, even if Foles has finally hoisted his first INT. The Vikings aren't to be trifled with though, especially after their thrillingly close loss last week, but I still think the Eagles have enough here.

The spread does give me some cause for concern, but I like their offence to get back on track with the return of more hospitable conditions. 

Eagles -4.5 

Seahawks @ Giants +7

Seattle ran the Niners close, but ultimately lost out, showing once again they are a far weaker team on the road than in the cacophonous Century Link field. The Giants however, also suffered a nasty defeat on the West Coast to the Chargers, and really there is only one way this one is going. Seattle's defence are going to have a field day and I'm expecting at least 3 picks from Eli. 

Large spread but nothing they can't handle.

Seattle -7

49ers @ Buccaneers +5

Coming off their crucial win over Seattle, the Niners should be more than the Buccs can handle. That said, Tampa having improved dramatically from their early season woes and stranger things have happened...

The spread is fair, I still like the Niners to beat it though.

49ers -5 

Sunday Second Wave

Jets @ Panthers -11

The Jets were impressive against the Raiders, whereas the Panthers looked lost at times in New Orleans. Of course, this will be a much easier test for the home side here, and I expect them to win very comfortably.

11 points is perhaps a little too rich even for me. Will the Panthers win? Almost certainly, but I'm not convinced it will be that clear cut.

Jets +11 (Panthers to win)

Chiefs @ Raiders +4

The Chiefs just single handedly (well maybe not, but they were the final straw) benched RG3 for the rest of the year. The Raiders just made the Jets look good. This is only going one way, even in Oakland.

The spread is nowhere near enough, rolling hard with this bad boy.

Chiefs -4 SFBTOW

Saints @ Rams +6

New Orleans showed up Carolina at home, but even with Clemons under center the Rams won't be pushovers. I do like the Saints to win this going off their ridiculously good form though.

The spread makes this interesting. Very loath to call this either way but will have to side with the Saints here.

Saints -6 

Cardinals @ Titans +2.5

Nice match up here between two teams both on the outside of playoff hopes. I like Arizona to come in and win this one, the Titans have fallen off the pace recently and the Cards have been putting together some very solid performances. 

2.5 doesn't make me balk much.

Cardinals -2.5

Packers @ Cowboys +7 Sky Sports 2

The Cowboys' defence got absolutely shredded by the Bears, something they must be getting used to after their recent performances. Their offence is still deadly though, and with Rodgers and Lacy both questionable to play this could swing either way. I'll side with the home team to grab a tight win here.

The spread is large enough to assuage any doubts. 

Cowboys +7 (and to win)

Sunday Night

Bengals @ Steelers +2.5

Divisional game, but the Steelers' playoff hopes were basically dashed by a large toe last week. The Bengals however need to win the hold off the Ravens, and that's exactly what they'll do here.

The spread doesn't scare me.

Bengals -2.5 

Monday Night

Ravens @ Lions -6

Big Monday night game in which both desperately need a win. This should be a classic shootout, with both teams operating at a high level, especially with the return of Pitta bolstering Baltimore's passing options. I like the Lions to grab the W here, but it should be a close one.

The spread is enough to swing me.

Ravens +6 (Lions win)

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 14

Week 13 was a very respectable one, with 12-4 outright and 9-7 on the spread (putting me back into positive on the season). Unfortunately the Chargers (and my SFBTOW) lost, so it was personally one of my least profitable weeks.

Week 14 is when the playoff action really starts heating up, and with a number of divisions and wildcards still undecided I'll be taking a closer look at what a W/L will mean for each team.

Week 13:
Outright = 12-4
Spread = 9-7
SFBOTW = 0-1

2013/14:
Outright = 123-70 
Spread = 95-94-4
SFBOTW = 8-5
Animal Corner = 3-1

All Time:
Outright = 289-161
Spread = 235-208
SFBOTW = 16-13-1 
Animal Corner = 7-3-1



Thursday Night

Texans @ Jaguars +3 Sky Sports 1

Who would have said the Texans (2-10) would have a worse record than the Jaguars (3-9) at this point in the season? Needless to say neither of these teams are making the post-season, and at this point whoever loses has a great shot at the #1 overall pick in April. That said it's still a divisional game, and both team's QBs are fighting for roster spots at this point. I like the Texans to squeeze it, but it could go either way. 

The spread is narrow so I'll stick with them.

Houston -3 

Sunday First Wave

Vikings @ Ravens -7

Minnesota (3-8-1) are well out of contention, but the Ravens (6-6) are fighting to hold onto the AFC's second wildcard spot. A loss here would put them back into the pack, so I think they win back to back games at home and improve their chances of making the playoffs. 

7 points is a large spread for a Vikings squad that hasn't lost in 2 weeks. I like them to cover.

Vikings +7 (Ravens to win)

Colts @ Bengals -6

Both these teams sit atop their divisions, but the Bengals' (8-4) position is the more precarious. This should be a tight encounter that I'm loath to call, as even if Indy have been a little off form of late, they are still one of the more dangerous offences in the league. The Bengals looked good in their win @ San Diego last week, so I like them to top it with another here and move out in control of the AFC North.

6 is too much for me to feel comfortable with.

Colts +6 (Bengals to win) SFBOTW

Browns @ Patriots -12

The Browns (4-8) are essentially done, but it isn't as bad as it usually is at this point for the them, unfortunately they are travelling to the Patriots (9-3) who are on a bit of a roll with back to back wins. This should be more of the same, and whilst NE have the division locked up at this point they won't take their foot off the gas. 

12 points is a huge spread, but I'm still not sure Cleveland will cover. 

Patriots -12 

Raiders @ Jets -2.5

Oakland (4-8) may have a worse record than NY (5-7), but they are definitely moving in the right direction, whereas the Jets are, well, not, despite mathematically being within reach of a WC spot. There was a fun factoid floating around that if Nick Foles threw a pick on each of his next 50 passes he would still have a higher QBR this season than Geno Smith, which doesn't exactly bode well for the future for the struggling franchise. I like the Raiders to pile on the misery here, as with each passing week they recover more and more key players from injury, but the Jets' top run defence will force McGloin to prove he is worthy of sticking with into next season. 

2.5 just makes this more attractive, this is SFBOTW worthy...

Raiders +2.5 (and to win) 

Lions @ Eagles -2.5 Sky Sports 3

As mentioned above, Foles is legit, so I like the Eagles (7-5) chances to beat the Lions (7-5) here, even if the visitors are in great form themselves. This should be a true shoot out, and both QBs could well put up huge numbers. The key will be whether Philly can avoid a dominant Lions defensive line munching their QB enough to let him play to his best. Both these teams are locked in tight battles for their respective divisional titles, so the game couldn't be much more crucial. 

It's a relatively small spread so I'll take the Eagles again. Not feeling super confident on this though as the match up isn't great.

Eagles -2.5

Chiefs @ Redskins +3

KC (9-3) haven't lost the division yet, but they'll probably have to content themselves with 2nd place and a strong WC after getting swept by Denver. This should be a much easier test though with the Redskins (3-9) having nothing left to play for. 

The spread is actually fairly attractive.

Chiefs -3

Miami @ Pittsburgh -3

Absolutely key AFC West match up here, with the Dolphins (6-6) and Steelers (5-7) both desperately needing a win to keep pace with Baltimore for the 2nd AFC wild card. Even though Miami have the better record, the home field advantage gives Pittsburgh the edge here, plus the knowledge that a loss means their season is well and truly over. 

The spread is only 3 points but as I'm not sure I'll flip it. 

Dolphins +3 (Steelers win)

Bills @ Buccaneers -2.5

This is a bit of a nothing game after the last two, with the Bills (4-8) and Buccs (3-9) both ruled out of playoff contention. I guess I like the Buccs to win at home, but I'm struggling the find the enthusiasm to even decide why. Personally I hope they lose to Schiano isn't in danger of keeping his job.

The spread is marginal.

Buccs -2.5 

Falcons @ Packers NO SPREAD

With A-Rod questionable to play this week this is still up in the air, that said with or without him I still like the Packers (5-6-1) to beat a struggling Falcons (3-9) at home. If they have him I think it will be dominant, but without a much more nervous affair. The fact is GB need a win here if they want to make the playoffs, and the Lions aren't too far in front that if they do and get Rodgers back they can still take the division. Game on.

NO SPREAD yet due to the injury questions, I'll update this Saturday when we know. Provisionally I'd expect Packers -7 with him and a push without, I'd take them in both scenarios. 

Sunday Second Wave

Titans @ Broncos -12

This game absolutely means more to Tennessee (5-7) than it does to Denver (10-2), as if they lose this they can kiss their play off hopes good bye. However, with the Broncos still playing for the divisional title and the #1 seed this is hardly a game they'll roll over in. I'm still expecting a typical dominant Denver performance the likes of which we've become accustomed to. 

This spread is massive, but at home I'm thinking Denver cover.

Broncos -12

Giants @ Chargers -3

Another big game as both these (5-7 a piece) are in with an unlikely shot of the playoffs. The Chargers have the easier road in the AFC, but will likely need to win out to secure that second WC spot, whereas the Giants will need to do that and have the Cowboys and Eagles the opposite to have a chance. I like the Chargers to wash last week's bad taste out of their mouths with a win here.

3 points doesn't scare me off.

Chargers -3

Rams @ Cardinals -6

The Rams (5-7) may be out of contention, but Arizona (7-5) are still well in it, especially with a win here and a Niners loss. They'll be well aware of the situation, and eager not to slip up at home to a divisional foe. I think they'll win (largely thanks to their D), but it will be an edgy affair throughout. 

The spread is too much for me.

Rams +6 (Cardinals win)

Seahawks @ 49ers -2.5 Sky Sports 3

Game of the week and a HUGE match up in the upper echelons of the NFC. A win here for Seattle (11-1) would see them lock up the division, whereas a win for SF (8-4) will put the pressure on their opposition going into the final weeks as well as giving them breathing room from 'Zona. That said, I think the 'Hawks have this, even away from their dominant home field advantage. They have been white hot all year, even missing key personnel on the o-line, but with those injuries back and Harvin getting more involved they have too much quality if they play to their potential. I'm not expecting a double digit margin, but I do think they'll squeeze a tight defensive battle.

The spread is just an added incentive.

Seahawks +2.5 (and to win)

Sunday Night

Panthers @ Saints -3

A potentially even bigger game than the previous one in terms of divisional importance, even if it won't get quite as much media hype (and likely even the loser will still grab a wild card spot). With both teams 9-3 this will likely decide the division, and with the Panthers on a staggering 8 game winning streak it is hard to look past them, even if NO have the home field. I like the Panthers to grab this one in an explosive but tight game.

Again, the spread just makes this all the sweeter.

Panthers +3 (and to win)

Monday Night

Cowboys @ Bears -1

The Cowboys (7-5) need a win here to retain their lead on the division, but the Bears (6-6) know that they are only a game behind Detroit to take theirs. With the wild cards likely going to the West and South in the NFC it is all or nothing here, and I like Romo to prove his doubters wrong and put in a clutch performance to give the 'Boys a great launching pad into the final 3 weeks, especially with Cutler still questionable to play.

The spread doesn't affect matters.

Cowboys +1 (and to win)

Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 13

Week 12 was a week to get back to form, with 8-6 on the outrights (draws count as losses), 10-4 on the spreads and my SFBOTW hitting comfortably again. Let's hope I can continue this into the tail end of the season and finish respectably. 

Week 13 is turkey week, so there's a whole host of NFL action to get our teeth into early on.

Week 12:
Outright = 8-6
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 1-0

2013/14:
Outright = 111-66
Spread = 86-87-4
SFBOTW = 8-4
Animal Corner = 3-1

All Time:
Outright = 277-157
Spread = 226-201-7 
SFBOTW = 16-12-1 
Animal Corner = 7-3-1


Thursday Night

Packers @ Lions -6 Sky Sports 1

Our first Thanksgiving game is a familiar NFC North grudge match between Green Bay and Detroit. With A-Rod unlikely to play the favour has to be with the Lions, even if they are coming off a tough loss to the Buccs. 

The spread is large, but I still think they will cover.

Lions -6 

Raiders @ Cowboys -10 Sky Sports 1

On the face of it this match-up is pretty one sided, but the Raiders have the benefit of several key players returning from injury and potentially playing this Sunday, including McFadden, Veldheer and Branch. Even with these additions I don't think they have the quality to beat the Cowboys @ Dallas, but they could run them close.

The spread is large enough to make me think Oakland can cover, remember this is the same team that almost upset the likes of Indy at home earlier in the season.

Raiders +10 (Cowboys win)

Steelers @ Ravens -2.5 Sky Sports 1

We round off the holiday's football fest with another divisional show down between the Steelers and Ravens. Both are playing solid football right now, with Pittsburgh seeing off Cleveland and Baltimore the Jets in the week just gone. This should be a typically tight, physical encounter, but I'll have to side with the Ravens with the home field here.

The spread is enough for me to flip flop over to Pittsbugh. #hedgethatbadboy

Steelers +2.5 (Ravens to win)

Sunday First Wave

Buccaneers @ Panthers -8.5

Schiano's Buccs are finally getting themselves some wins, but the Panthers may be one of the hottest teams right now and find themselves on their own impressive win streak. They are absolutely my outside shot at finding themselves on a deep playoff run in a stacked NFL, but they'll need to win this kind of divisional battle to prove they have the toughness to be contenders. I think they have what it takes.

The spread puts me off, a lot. The Buccs have been decent of late and should keep this close enough.

Buccaneers +8.5 (Panthers win)

Jaguars @ Browns -7

Yawn. Even the Jaguars winning a game the week before doesn't inspire me for this one. I'm already bored of this game and I've only written two lines about it. Look for the Browns' D to keep Jax pretty much off the scoreboard. 

The spread is large but they should cover. 

Browns -7 

Titans @ Colts -4

Crucial AFC South match up with the Colts looking to cement the divisional title and the Titans chasing that illusive second AFC wild card. Despite a poor performance last week I like the Colts to win at home versus Tennessee, who did well to beat Oakland but are not the same team with Fitzpatrick in place of Locker. 

The spread isn't big enough to make me have second thoughts.

Colts -4 

Dolphins @ Jets -1.5

An even more crucial AFC match up with both teams vying for that wild card spot. A loss here would be damning for either team. In soccer terms this is a 6 pointer, and the Jets have been truly woeful of late, with Geno sinking back to his worst the past couple of weeks. The Dolphins meanwhile did surprisingly well against SD and then the Panthers, so I think they have all the form going into this one. I like Miami to win the battle of the soap operas, but Smith could well spring back to form and make me look foolish.

The spread is negligible.  

Dolphins +1.5 (and to win)

Cardinals @ Eagles -3.5 Sky Sports 2

Very difficult one to call, as both are playing at a decent level right now. The Cardinals are expanding on their pre-season hype by knocking off some good teams - most recently Indy. How they play on the road will dictate their success down the stretch though, and they'll need to pick up wins in games like this to be in with a chance of stealing SF's wild card spot. The Eagles meanwhile have been putting up NUMBERS with Foles under centre, but could struggle against a strong Cardinal's defence. I like the visitors to pull off an upset here.

A nice little spread is just an extra incentive. 

Cardinals +3.5 (and to win)

Bears @ Vikings -1.5

The Bears got handled by the Rams, and with Cutler still out for this one I don't see things getting much better. Sure, Minnesota are hardly setting the world alight, but they damn nearly beat the Packers at Lambeau last week (who are similarly lacking a starting QB), so should have enough to win this one.

Again, a spread that doesn't do much to change my opinion. 

Vikings -1.5 

Patriots @ Texans +7.5

Brady did the impossible and recovered from a 24 point deficit to beat the Broncos in overtime. As irksome as that is to all non-Pats fans, hats off to him. I think they will make short work of a Texans side that seems to have rolled over, especially given last week's loss to Jax. 

The Spread is fairly hefty but I think they should squeeze by it.

Patriots -7.5 

Falcons @ Bills -3.5

Atlanta are bad, and their season is over, but they did run the Saints close last week. Whilst they may struggle more for motivation on a long away trip to Buffalo I like them to spring the upset and show the league they aren't completely done.

The spread just makes this sweeter.

Falcons +3.5 (and to win)

Sunday Second Wave

Bengals @ Chargers -1.5

SD didn't perform much better than they have done all year in their win over KC, the difference was they were the ones delivering the game winning drive in the dying seconds, as opposed to being on the receiving end of it. With much of the AFC wide open this is another game both sides will be eager to grab a W from, but at home I like the Chargers to send a message they are the favourites to make the playoffs. 

The spread is small enough to make me feel pretty confident. I'm not as sold as I could be, but there really aren't any other games I'm crazy about this week either...

Chargers -1.5 SFBOTW

Rams @ 49ers -8.5

It may come as a shock to some that the 49ers post-season berth is far from guaranteed this year. This is one of 3 divisional games (v Seahawks and @ Cards) left on their schedule, and whilst probably the easiest of the three a loss here would see them in dire straits. That said, and despite some strong performances from St. Louis in recent weeks, I can't see them overcoming a dominant Niners' defence. 

The spread is large enough that I can see the Rams covering.

Rams + 8.5 (49ers win)

Broncos @ Chiefs +4.5 Sky Sports 2

It may not seem that long ago that the Chiefs were @ Denver, and that's because it wasn't. After only a couple of weeks break the two strongest teams in the AFC face off again, this time at Arrowhead. With both coming off tough last minute losses this is a very interesting game, but the loss of both of KC's premier pass rushers (who at the very least will be limited in this game) could hurt them versus Peyton as much as it did versus Rivers. 

Denver have more than enough to show up KC for a second time. 

Broncos -4.5 

Sunday Night

Giants @ Redskins +1

Another divisional dog fight in a week seemingly full of them. I'm really torn over this one, on the one hand the Giants (until last week) had been coming back to form, on the other the Skins despite a bad pass defence are not a terrible team. Both teams are suffering from a lot of unwanted media attention, the Giants following their players' guarantees of a win over Dallas, and RG3 over his attitude and response to losing. It would be shame to break the habit of a lifetime and pick the Giants here, so I'll stick with the Redskins to win a statement game and stop the rot.

The spread doesn't swing me either way, I'll be avoiding this one like the plague. 

Redskins +1 (and to win)

Monday Night

Saints @ Seahawks -6

Marquee match up on MNF between the two best teams in the NFC, and a rematch of that fateful playoff game that sparked Lynch's famous beast mode run. This could well be the toughest home test yet (aside from that weird Tampa game) for a Seahawks side suffering at CB in the absence of Brandon Browner and nickleback Thurmond. They still have Sherman and Thomas of course, but Jimmy Graham and co. will cause them problems. I still think the 'Hawks win this game, but it could be a close run thing.

The spread definitely swings this in favour of NO, in my opinion. 

Saints +6 (Seahawks win)