Week 13 was a very respectable one, with 12-4 outright and 9-7 on the spread (putting me back into positive on the season). Unfortunately the Chargers (and my SFBTOW) lost, so it was personally one of my least profitable weeks.
Week 14 is when the playoff action really starts heating up, and with a number of divisions and wildcards still undecided I'll be taking a closer look at what a W/L will mean for each team.
Week 13:
Outright = 12-4
Spread = 9-7
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 123-70
Spread = 95-94-4
SFBOTW = 8-5
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 289-161
Spread = 235-208
SFBOTW = 16-13-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Texans @ Jaguars +3 Sky Sports 1
Who would have said the Texans (2-10) would have a worse record than the Jaguars (3-9) at this point in the season? Needless to say neither of these teams are making the post-season, and at this point whoever loses has a great shot at the #1 overall pick in April. That said it's still a divisional game, and both team's QBs are fighting for roster spots at this point. I like the Texans to squeeze it, but it could go either way.
The spread is narrow so I'll stick with them.
Houston -3
Sunday First Wave
Vikings @ Ravens -7
Minnesota (3-8-1) are well out of contention, but the Ravens (6-6) are fighting to hold onto the AFC's second wildcard spot. A loss here would put them back into the pack, so I think they win back to back games at home and improve their chances of making the playoffs.
7 points is a large spread for a Vikings squad that hasn't lost in 2 weeks. I like them to cover.
Vikings +7 (Ravens to win)
Colts @ Bengals -6
Both these teams sit atop their divisions, but the Bengals' (8-4) position is the more precarious. This should be a tight encounter that I'm loath to call, as even if Indy have been a little off form of late, they are still one of the more dangerous offences in the league. The Bengals looked good in their win @ San Diego last week, so I like them to top it with another here and move out in control of the AFC North.
6 is too much for me to feel comfortable with.
Colts +6 (Bengals to win) SFBOTW
Browns @ Patriots -12
The Browns (4-8) are essentially done, but it isn't as bad as it usually is at this point for the them, unfortunately they are travelling to the Patriots (9-3) who are on a bit of a roll with back to back wins. This should be more of the same, and whilst NE have the division locked up at this point they won't take their foot off the gas.
12 points is a huge spread, but I'm still not sure Cleveland will cover.
Patriots -12
Raiders @ Jets -2.5
Oakland (4-8) may have a worse record than NY (5-7), but they are definitely moving in the right direction, whereas the Jets are, well, not, despite mathematically being within reach of a WC spot. There was a fun factoid floating around that if Nick Foles threw a pick on each of his next 50 passes he would still have a higher QBR this season than Geno Smith, which doesn't exactly bode well for the future for the struggling franchise. I like the Raiders to pile on the misery here, as with each passing week they recover more and more key players from injury, but the Jets' top run defence will force McGloin to prove he is worthy of sticking with into next season.
2.5 just makes this more attractive, this is SFBOTW worthy...
Raiders +2.5 (and to win)
Lions @ Eagles -2.5 Sky Sports 3
As mentioned above, Foles is legit, so I like the Eagles (7-5) chances to beat the Lions (7-5) here, even if the visitors are in great form themselves. This should be a true shoot out, and both QBs could well put up huge numbers. The key will be whether Philly can avoid a dominant Lions defensive line munching their QB enough to let him play to his best. Both these teams are locked in tight battles for their respective divisional titles, so the game couldn't be much more crucial.
It's a relatively small spread so I'll take the Eagles again. Not feeling super confident on this though as the match up isn't great.
Eagles -2.5
Chiefs @ Redskins +3
KC (9-3) haven't lost the division yet, but they'll probably have to content themselves with 2nd place and a strong WC after getting swept by Denver. This should be a much easier test though with the Redskins (3-9) having nothing left to play for.
The spread is actually fairly attractive.
Chiefs -3
Miami @ Pittsburgh -3
Absolutely key AFC West match up here, with the Dolphins (6-6) and Steelers (5-7) both desperately needing a win to keep pace with Baltimore for the 2nd AFC wild card. Even though Miami have the better record, the home field advantage gives Pittsburgh the edge here, plus the knowledge that a loss means their season is well and truly over.
The spread is only 3 points but as I'm not sure I'll flip it.
Dolphins +3 (Steelers win)
Bills @ Buccaneers -2.5
This is a bit of a nothing game after the last two, with the Bills (4-8) and Buccs (3-9) both ruled out of playoff contention. I guess I like the Buccs to win at home, but I'm struggling the find the enthusiasm to even decide why. Personally I hope they lose to Schiano isn't in danger of keeping his job.
The spread is marginal.
Buccs -2.5
Falcons @ Packers NO SPREAD
With A-Rod questionable to play this week this is still up in the air, that said with or without him I still like the Packers (5-6-1) to beat a struggling Falcons (3-9) at home. If they have him I think it will be dominant, but without a much more nervous affair. The fact is GB need a win here if they want to make the playoffs, and the Lions aren't too far in front that if they do and get Rodgers back they can still take the division. Game on.
NO SPREAD yet due to the injury questions, I'll update this Saturday when we know. Provisionally I'd expect Packers -7 with him and a push without, I'd take them in both scenarios.
Sunday Second Wave
Titans @ Broncos -12
This game absolutely means more to Tennessee (5-7) than it does to Denver (10-2), as if they lose this they can kiss their play off hopes good bye. However, with the Broncos still playing for the divisional title and the #1 seed this is hardly a game they'll roll over in. I'm still expecting a typical dominant Denver performance the likes of which we've become accustomed to.
This spread is massive, but at home I'm thinking Denver cover.
Broncos -12
Giants @ Chargers -3
Another big game as both these (5-7 a piece) are in with an unlikely shot of the playoffs. The Chargers have the easier road in the AFC, but will likely need to win out to secure that second WC spot, whereas the Giants will need to do that and have the Cowboys and Eagles the opposite to have a chance. I like the Chargers to wash last week's bad taste out of their mouths with a win here.
3 points doesn't scare me off.
Chargers -3
Rams @ Cardinals -6
The Rams (5-7) may be out of contention, but Arizona (7-5) are still well in it, especially with a win here and a Niners loss. They'll be well aware of the situation, and eager not to slip up at home to a divisional foe. I think they'll win (largely thanks to their D), but it will be an edgy affair throughout.
The spread is too much for me.
Rams +6 (Cardinals win)
Seahawks @ 49ers -2.5 Sky Sports 3
Game of the week and a HUGE match up in the upper echelons of the NFC. A win here for Seattle (11-1) would see them lock up the division, whereas a win for SF (8-4) will put the pressure on their opposition going into the final weeks as well as giving them breathing room from 'Zona. That said, I think the 'Hawks have this, even away from their dominant home field advantage. They have been white hot all year, even missing key personnel on the o-line, but with those injuries back and Harvin getting more involved they have too much quality if they play to their potential. I'm not expecting a double digit margin, but I do think they'll squeeze a tight defensive battle.
The spread is just an added incentive.
Seahawks +2.5 (and to win)
Sunday Night
Panthers @ Saints -3
A potentially even bigger game than the previous one in terms of divisional importance, even if it won't get quite as much media hype (and likely even the loser will still grab a wild card spot). With both teams 9-3 this will likely decide the division, and with the Panthers on a staggering 8 game winning streak it is hard to look past them, even if NO have the home field. I like the Panthers to grab this one in an explosive but tight game.
Again, the spread just makes this all the sweeter.
Panthers +3 (and to win)
Monday Night
Cowboys @ Bears -1
The Cowboys (7-5) need a win here to retain their lead on the division, but the Bears (6-6) know that they are only a game behind Detroit to take theirs. With the wild cards likely going to the West and South in the NFC it is all or nothing here, and I like Romo to prove his doubters wrong and put in a clutch performance to give the 'Boys a great launching pad into the final 3 weeks, especially with Cutler still questionable to play.
The spread doesn't affect matters.
Cowboys +1 (and to win)
Thursday, 5 December 2013
Thursday, 28 November 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 13
Week 12 was a week to get back to form, with 8-6 on the outrights (draws count as losses), 10-4 on the spreads and my SFBOTW hitting comfortably again. Let's hope I can continue this into the tail end of the season and finish respectably.
Week 13 is turkey week, so there's a whole host of NFL action to get our teeth into early on.
Week 12:
Outright = 8-6
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 111-66
Spread = 86-87-4
SFBOTW = 8-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 277-157
Spread = 226-201-7
SFBOTW = 16-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Packers @ Lions -6 Sky Sports 1
Our first Thanksgiving game is a familiar NFC North grudge match between Green Bay and Detroit. With A-Rod unlikely to play the favour has to be with the Lions, even if they are coming off a tough loss to the Buccs.
The spread is large, but I still think they will cover.
Lions -6
Raiders @ Cowboys -10 Sky Sports 1
On the face of it this match-up is pretty one sided, but the Raiders have the benefit of several key players returning from injury and potentially playing this Sunday, including McFadden, Veldheer and Branch. Even with these additions I don't think they have the quality to beat the Cowboys @ Dallas, but they could run them close.
The spread is large enough to make me think Oakland can cover, remember this is the same team that almost upset the likes of Indy at home earlier in the season.
Raiders +10 (Cowboys win)
Steelers @ Ravens -2.5 Sky Sports 1
We round off the holiday's football fest with another divisional show down between the Steelers and Ravens. Both are playing solid football right now, with Pittsburgh seeing off Cleveland and Baltimore the Jets in the week just gone. This should be a typically tight, physical encounter, but I'll have to side with the Ravens with the home field here.
The spread is enough for me to flip flop over to Pittsbugh. #hedgethatbadboy
Steelers +2.5 (Ravens to win)
Sunday First Wave
Buccaneers @ Panthers -8.5
Schiano's Buccs are finally getting themselves some wins, but the Panthers may be one of the hottest teams right now and find themselves on their own impressive win streak. They are absolutely my outside shot at finding themselves on a deep playoff run in a stacked NFL, but they'll need to win this kind of divisional battle to prove they have the toughness to be contenders. I think they have what it takes.
The spread puts me off, a lot. The Buccs have been decent of late and should keep this close enough.
Buccaneers +8.5 (Panthers win)
Jaguars @ Browns -7
Yawn. Even the Jaguars winning a game the week before doesn't inspire me for this one. I'm already bored of this game and I've only written two lines about it. Look for the Browns' D to keep Jax pretty much off the scoreboard.
The spread is large but they should cover.
Browns -7
Titans @ Colts -4
Crucial AFC South match up with the Colts looking to cement the divisional title and the Titans chasing that illusive second AFC wild card. Despite a poor performance last week I like the Colts to win at home versus Tennessee, who did well to beat Oakland but are not the same team with Fitzpatrick in place of Locker.
The spread isn't big enough to make me have second thoughts.
Colts -4
Dolphins @ Jets -1.5
An even more crucial AFC match up with both teams vying for that wild card spot. A loss here would be damning for either team. In soccer terms this is a 6 pointer, and the Jets have been truly woeful of late, with Geno sinking back to his worst the past couple of weeks. The Dolphins meanwhile did surprisingly well against SD and then the Panthers, so I think they have all the form going into this one. I like Miami to win the battle of the soap operas, but Smith could well spring back to form and make me look foolish.
The spread is negligible.
Dolphins +1.5 (and to win)
Cardinals @ Eagles -3.5 Sky Sports 2
Very difficult one to call, as both are playing at a decent level right now. The Cardinals are expanding on their pre-season hype by knocking off some good teams - most recently Indy. How they play on the road will dictate their success down the stretch though, and they'll need to pick up wins in games like this to be in with a chance of stealing SF's wild card spot. The Eagles meanwhile have been putting up NUMBERS with Foles under centre, but could struggle against a strong Cardinal's defence. I like the visitors to pull off an upset here.
A nice little spread is just an extra incentive.
Cardinals +3.5 (and to win)
Bears @ Vikings -1.5
The Bears got handled by the Rams, and with Cutler still out for this one I don't see things getting much better. Sure, Minnesota are hardly setting the world alight, but they damn nearly beat the Packers at Lambeau last week (who are similarly lacking a starting QB), so should have enough to win this one.
Again, a spread that doesn't do much to change my opinion.
Vikings -1.5
Patriots @ Texans +7.5
Brady did the impossible and recovered from a 24 point deficit to beat the Broncos in overtime. As irksome as that is to all non-Pats fans, hats off to him. I think they will make short work of a Texans side that seems to have rolled over, especially given last week's loss to Jax.
The Spread is fairly hefty but I think they should squeeze by it.
Patriots -7.5
Falcons @ Bills -3.5
Atlanta are bad, and their season is over, but they did run the Saints close last week. Whilst they may struggle more for motivation on a long away trip to Buffalo I like them to spring the upset and show the league they aren't completely done.
The spread just makes this sweeter.
Falcons +3.5 (and to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Bengals @ Chargers -1.5
SD didn't perform much better than they have done all year in their win over KC, the difference was they were the ones delivering the game winning drive in the dying seconds, as opposed to being on the receiving end of it. With much of the AFC wide open this is another game both sides will be eager to grab a W from, but at home I like the Chargers to send a message they are the favourites to make the playoffs.
The spread is small enough to make me feel pretty confident. I'm not as sold as I could be, but there really aren't any other games I'm crazy about this week either...
Chargers -1.5 SFBOTW
Rams @ 49ers -8.5
It may come as a shock to some that the 49ers post-season berth is far from guaranteed this year. This is one of 3 divisional games (v Seahawks and @ Cards) left on their schedule, and whilst probably the easiest of the three a loss here would see them in dire straits. That said, and despite some strong performances from St. Louis in recent weeks, I can't see them overcoming a dominant Niners' defence.
The spread is large enough that I can see the Rams covering.
Rams + 8.5 (49ers win)
Broncos @ Chiefs +4.5 Sky Sports 2
It may not seem that long ago that the Chiefs were @ Denver, and that's because it wasn't. After only a couple of weeks break the two strongest teams in the AFC face off again, this time at Arrowhead. With both coming off tough last minute losses this is a very interesting game, but the loss of both of KC's premier pass rushers (who at the very least will be limited in this game) could hurt them versus Peyton as much as it did versus Rivers.
Denver have more than enough to show up KC for a second time.
Broncos -4.5
Sunday Night
Giants @ Redskins +1
Another divisional dog fight in a week seemingly full of them. I'm really torn over this one, on the one hand the Giants (until last week) had been coming back to form, on the other the Skins despite a bad pass defence are not a terrible team. Both teams are suffering from a lot of unwanted media attention, the Giants following their players' guarantees of a win over Dallas, and RG3 over his attitude and response to losing. It would be shame to break the habit of a lifetime and pick the Giants here, so I'll stick with the Redskins to win a statement game and stop the rot.
The spread doesn't swing me either way, I'll be avoiding this one like the plague.
Redskins +1 (and to win)
Monday Night
Saints @ Seahawks -6
Marquee match up on MNF between the two best teams in the NFC, and a rematch of that fateful playoff game that sparked Lynch's famous beast mode run. This could well be the toughest home test yet (aside from that weird Tampa game) for a Seahawks side suffering at CB in the absence of Brandon Browner and nickleback Thurmond. They still have Sherman and Thomas of course, but Jimmy Graham and co. will cause them problems. I still think the 'Hawks win this game, but it could be a close run thing.
The spread definitely swings this in favour of NO, in my opinion.
Saints +6 (Seahawks win)
Week 13 is turkey week, so there's a whole host of NFL action to get our teeth into early on.
Week 12:
Outright = 8-6
Spread = 10-4
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 111-66
Spread = 86-87-4
SFBOTW = 8-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 277-157
Spread = 226-201-7
SFBOTW = 16-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Packers @ Lions -6 Sky Sports 1
Our first Thanksgiving game is a familiar NFC North grudge match between Green Bay and Detroit. With A-Rod unlikely to play the favour has to be with the Lions, even if they are coming off a tough loss to the Buccs.
The spread is large, but I still think they will cover.
Lions -6
Raiders @ Cowboys -10 Sky Sports 1
On the face of it this match-up is pretty one sided, but the Raiders have the benefit of several key players returning from injury and potentially playing this Sunday, including McFadden, Veldheer and Branch. Even with these additions I don't think they have the quality to beat the Cowboys @ Dallas, but they could run them close.
The spread is large enough to make me think Oakland can cover, remember this is the same team that almost upset the likes of Indy at home earlier in the season.
Raiders +10 (Cowboys win)
Steelers @ Ravens -2.5 Sky Sports 1
We round off the holiday's football fest with another divisional show down between the Steelers and Ravens. Both are playing solid football right now, with Pittsburgh seeing off Cleveland and Baltimore the Jets in the week just gone. This should be a typically tight, physical encounter, but I'll have to side with the Ravens with the home field here.
The spread is enough for me to flip flop over to Pittsbugh. #hedgethatbadboy
Steelers +2.5 (Ravens to win)
Sunday First Wave
Buccaneers @ Panthers -8.5
Schiano's Buccs are finally getting themselves some wins, but the Panthers may be one of the hottest teams right now and find themselves on their own impressive win streak. They are absolutely my outside shot at finding themselves on a deep playoff run in a stacked NFL, but they'll need to win this kind of divisional battle to prove they have the toughness to be contenders. I think they have what it takes.
The spread puts me off, a lot. The Buccs have been decent of late and should keep this close enough.
Buccaneers +8.5 (Panthers win)
Jaguars @ Browns -7
Yawn. Even the Jaguars winning a game the week before doesn't inspire me for this one. I'm already bored of this game and I've only written two lines about it. Look for the Browns' D to keep Jax pretty much off the scoreboard.
The spread is large but they should cover.
Browns -7
Titans @ Colts -4
Crucial AFC South match up with the Colts looking to cement the divisional title and the Titans chasing that illusive second AFC wild card. Despite a poor performance last week I like the Colts to win at home versus Tennessee, who did well to beat Oakland but are not the same team with Fitzpatrick in place of Locker.
The spread isn't big enough to make me have second thoughts.
Colts -4
Dolphins @ Jets -1.5
An even more crucial AFC match up with both teams vying for that wild card spot. A loss here would be damning for either team. In soccer terms this is a 6 pointer, and the Jets have been truly woeful of late, with Geno sinking back to his worst the past couple of weeks. The Dolphins meanwhile did surprisingly well against SD and then the Panthers, so I think they have all the form going into this one. I like Miami to win the battle of the soap operas, but Smith could well spring back to form and make me look foolish.
The spread is negligible.
Dolphins +1.5 (and to win)
Cardinals @ Eagles -3.5 Sky Sports 2
Very difficult one to call, as both are playing at a decent level right now. The Cardinals are expanding on their pre-season hype by knocking off some good teams - most recently Indy. How they play on the road will dictate their success down the stretch though, and they'll need to pick up wins in games like this to be in with a chance of stealing SF's wild card spot. The Eagles meanwhile have been putting up NUMBERS with Foles under centre, but could struggle against a strong Cardinal's defence. I like the visitors to pull off an upset here.
A nice little spread is just an extra incentive.
Cardinals +3.5 (and to win)
Bears @ Vikings -1.5
The Bears got handled by the Rams, and with Cutler still out for this one I don't see things getting much better. Sure, Minnesota are hardly setting the world alight, but they damn nearly beat the Packers at Lambeau last week (who are similarly lacking a starting QB), so should have enough to win this one.
Again, a spread that doesn't do much to change my opinion.
Vikings -1.5
Patriots @ Texans +7.5
Brady did the impossible and recovered from a 24 point deficit to beat the Broncos in overtime. As irksome as that is to all non-Pats fans, hats off to him. I think they will make short work of a Texans side that seems to have rolled over, especially given last week's loss to Jax.
The Spread is fairly hefty but I think they should squeeze by it.
Patriots -7.5
Falcons @ Bills -3.5
Atlanta are bad, and their season is over, but they did run the Saints close last week. Whilst they may struggle more for motivation on a long away trip to Buffalo I like them to spring the upset and show the league they aren't completely done.
The spread just makes this sweeter.
Falcons +3.5 (and to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Bengals @ Chargers -1.5
SD didn't perform much better than they have done all year in their win over KC, the difference was they were the ones delivering the game winning drive in the dying seconds, as opposed to being on the receiving end of it. With much of the AFC wide open this is another game both sides will be eager to grab a W from, but at home I like the Chargers to send a message they are the favourites to make the playoffs.
The spread is small enough to make me feel pretty confident. I'm not as sold as I could be, but there really aren't any other games I'm crazy about this week either...
Chargers -1.5 SFBOTW
Rams @ 49ers -8.5
It may come as a shock to some that the 49ers post-season berth is far from guaranteed this year. This is one of 3 divisional games (v Seahawks and @ Cards) left on their schedule, and whilst probably the easiest of the three a loss here would see them in dire straits. That said, and despite some strong performances from St. Louis in recent weeks, I can't see them overcoming a dominant Niners' defence.
The spread is large enough that I can see the Rams covering.
Rams + 8.5 (49ers win)
Broncos @ Chiefs +4.5 Sky Sports 2
It may not seem that long ago that the Chiefs were @ Denver, and that's because it wasn't. After only a couple of weeks break the two strongest teams in the AFC face off again, this time at Arrowhead. With both coming off tough last minute losses this is a very interesting game, but the loss of both of KC's premier pass rushers (who at the very least will be limited in this game) could hurt them versus Peyton as much as it did versus Rivers.
Denver have more than enough to show up KC for a second time.
Broncos -4.5
Sunday Night
Giants @ Redskins +1
Another divisional dog fight in a week seemingly full of them. I'm really torn over this one, on the one hand the Giants (until last week) had been coming back to form, on the other the Skins despite a bad pass defence are not a terrible team. Both teams are suffering from a lot of unwanted media attention, the Giants following their players' guarantees of a win over Dallas, and RG3 over his attitude and response to losing. It would be shame to break the habit of a lifetime and pick the Giants here, so I'll stick with the Redskins to win a statement game and stop the rot.
The spread doesn't swing me either way, I'll be avoiding this one like the plague.
Redskins +1 (and to win)
Monday Night
Saints @ Seahawks -6
Marquee match up on MNF between the two best teams in the NFC, and a rematch of that fateful playoff game that sparked Lynch's famous beast mode run. This could well be the toughest home test yet (aside from that weird Tampa game) for a Seahawks side suffering at CB in the absence of Brandon Browner and nickleback Thurmond. They still have Sherman and Thomas of course, but Jimmy Graham and co. will cause them problems. I still think the 'Hawks win this game, but it could be a close run thing.
The spread definitely swings this in favour of NO, in my opinion.
Saints +6 (Seahawks win)
Thursday, 21 November 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 12
Another sub-par week of predictions with an average 9-6 outright marred by a woeful 5-10 on the spreads. If this keeps up I may be forced to throw in the predicting towel. The only thing keeping me going now is another SFBOTW hitting, meaning whilst I am less than perfect as a whole I am almost 2:1 on the games I feel most comfortable in. Now I just need to limit myself to betting on those...
Week 11:
Outright = 9-6
Spread = 5-10
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 103-60
Spread = 76-83-4
SFBOTW = 7-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 269-151
Spread = 216-197-7
SFBOTW = 15-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Saints @ Falcons +9.5 Sky Sports 1
What should have been a cracking Thursday night football encounter when penned in at the start of the season, now even the divisional factor can't rescue this from being a damp squib. The Falcons are vying with the Texans for the crown of biggest disappointments 2013, and a far cry for the undefeated team that lasted much of last season. Whatever the reasons for their fall from grace, the Saints will make short work of a team at rock bottom.
9.5 is a healthy margin, but one I think the Saints should cover.
Saints -9.5
Sunday First Wave
Jets @ Ravens -4 Sky Sports 3
A less than attractive game between two inconsistent performers, this is a tough one to call. I think the Ravens are in the better position to win this one, especially at home, as even despite last week's loss against Cutler-less Chicago, they face off against the turnover machine that was Geno Smith last week.
4 points is a decent spread, but again I think the Ravens could well win by a score or more here.
Ravens -4
Steelers @ Browns -1
This is a game which in which the Steelers inexplicably (to me at any rate) are under dogs. Yes they had a terrible start compared to the Browns' strong one, but looking at recent form tells us this shouldn't even be close. Pittsburgh have benefited from the resurgence of a run game with Bell in play, whereas Campbell has been as ineffective as we've come to expect from Browns' fill ins. Despite the homefield advantage for the Browns, this is Steelers all day.
The +1 point just makes this sweeter.
Steelers +1 (and to win) SFBOTW
Buccaneers @ Lions -9.5
Tampa's mini revival should come to a screeching halt here, facing off against a Detroit side that will be eager to get back on track following their loss to Pittsburgh last weekend. Look for the beastly Lions d-line to make life difficult for Glennon.
9.5 is a very large spread however, and the Buccs have weapons capable of staying competitive.
Buccs +9.5 (Lions win)
Vikings @ Packers -4.5
I'm definitely in two minds about this game. On the one hand, the Packers have the home field and are a better overall team. On the other, they are shadows of their former selves without Rodgers. We often place too much importance on QB play in all levels of football, Green Bay being without their lead man shows why sometimes we're right to do so. I fancy the Vikings (even with their marginally better passing options), to take advantage here and grab the win.
The spread just sweetens the pot.
Vikings +4.5 (and to win)
Jaguars @ Texans -10
The Texans lost out last week to the Raiders, and the shine seems to be wearing thin on Case Keenum already. It was definitely the wrong decision to pull him in favour of Schaub last week, no matter how inaccurate he was. At this point you are trying to evaluate whether the kid is worth sticking with or whether you have to go all out in the draft for a new QB. I like Case to find his rhythm once more against a struggling (but gradually improving) visiting Jax.
10 points is too much for me.
Jaguars +10 (Texans to win)
Panthers @ Dolphins +4.5
Despite the Dolphins' victory over San Diego I see Carolina as clear favourites here. Yes they got lucky on that final play versus the Pats, but they are still an extremely strong team. A dominant defensive front plus the particular skills of Cam make for a dangerous cocktail. I like them to take down the Phins comfortably.
4.5 isn't enough to sway me here.
Panthers -4.5
Bears @ Rams -1
With Jay Cutler out this becomes yet another back QB bowl. Then question becomes A. who has the better running game and B. who's defence is more likely to force an inexperienced passer into mistakes. I think the Rams edge this, especially in the latter category. I'm expecting a tight game but one I think St. Louis could nick at home.
The spread changes nothing.
Rams -1
Sunday Second Wave
Colts @ Cardinals -1
This should be an intriguing game, with the Colts travelling to Arizona. Make no mistake these are two good teams playing, and the Cardinals will make life very difficult for Luck and co. That said, it's hard to bet against Indy when they are some proficient at come from behind victories. Whilst the match up is not great I think they have enough quality to scrape one.
Colts +1 (and to win)
Titans @ Raiders -1
Interesting call here, as the Titans have struggled somewhat since Locker went out, but are still a strong team. The Raiders meanwhile impressed in their win over Houston, particularly Rashad Jennings' bruising running and the surprisingly effective Matt McGloin under centre. This really good go either way, but I'll err with who I think are the better team.
Titans +1 (and to win)
Cowboys @ Giants -1 Sky Sports 3
The Giants are back on track, but it's probably far too little too late even in the torrid NFC East. The Cowboys will look to bounce back following their bye week and preceeding beat down by NO, and what better way to do it than in what is always a heated divisional encounter. I like the 'Boys to win this one.
The extra point does little except tell me I'm in the slight minority.
Cowboys +1 (and to win)
Chargers @ Chiefs -5
Another heartbreakingly narrow loss for SD at the weekend (no team has lost more 1 score games this season), and things won't get any easier with a trip to rivals Kansas City in the pipe. The Chiefs showed their flaws in their game in Denver, namely an offence not up to matching scores with the most explosive in the league. Can Rivers and the Chargers put up enough points on a stingy Chiefs' defense to take this one? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.
The spread swings this for me, San Diego have been ultra competitive in all their losses, and there's no reason to think they'll throw this one away by a larger margin.
Chargers +5 (Chiefs to win)
Sunday Night
Broncos @ Patriots +1
Marquee match up and what should be another great one in the Brady/Manning rivalry. With the Broncos firing on all cylinders I think this is an easy call in terms of the result, even in Foxboro. Having said that, it is still anyone's game and you never count the Pats out.
Broncos -1
Monday Night
49ers @ Redskins +5
The Redskins' season is effectively over whereas the 49ers are fighting to keep hold of a wild card berth. With both teams underperforming I still like the Niners to grab this. Their defense should be an extra test for a still sub-par RG3 (compared to his standards last year) and the Skins soft underbelly that is their pass defense is exactly what Kaep needs to get back on track.
The spread is large enough to give me cause for concern, but I think the Niners should cover.
49ers -5
Week 11:
Outright = 9-6
Spread = 5-10
SFBOTW = 1-0
2013/14:
Outright = 103-60
Spread = 76-83-4
SFBOTW = 7-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 269-151
Spread = 216-197-7
SFBOTW = 15-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Saints @ Falcons +9.5 Sky Sports 1
What should have been a cracking Thursday night football encounter when penned in at the start of the season, now even the divisional factor can't rescue this from being a damp squib. The Falcons are vying with the Texans for the crown of biggest disappointments 2013, and a far cry for the undefeated team that lasted much of last season. Whatever the reasons for their fall from grace, the Saints will make short work of a team at rock bottom.
9.5 is a healthy margin, but one I think the Saints should cover.
Saints -9.5
Sunday First Wave
Jets @ Ravens -4 Sky Sports 3
A less than attractive game between two inconsistent performers, this is a tough one to call. I think the Ravens are in the better position to win this one, especially at home, as even despite last week's loss against Cutler-less Chicago, they face off against the turnover machine that was Geno Smith last week.
4 points is a decent spread, but again I think the Ravens could well win by a score or more here.
Ravens -4
Steelers @ Browns -1
This is a game which in which the Steelers inexplicably (to me at any rate) are under dogs. Yes they had a terrible start compared to the Browns' strong one, but looking at recent form tells us this shouldn't even be close. Pittsburgh have benefited from the resurgence of a run game with Bell in play, whereas Campbell has been as ineffective as we've come to expect from Browns' fill ins. Despite the homefield advantage for the Browns, this is Steelers all day.
The +1 point just makes this sweeter.
Steelers +1 (and to win) SFBOTW
Buccaneers @ Lions -9.5
Tampa's mini revival should come to a screeching halt here, facing off against a Detroit side that will be eager to get back on track following their loss to Pittsburgh last weekend. Look for the beastly Lions d-line to make life difficult for Glennon.
9.5 is a very large spread however, and the Buccs have weapons capable of staying competitive.
Buccs +9.5 (Lions win)
Vikings @ Packers -4.5
I'm definitely in two minds about this game. On the one hand, the Packers have the home field and are a better overall team. On the other, they are shadows of their former selves without Rodgers. We often place too much importance on QB play in all levels of football, Green Bay being without their lead man shows why sometimes we're right to do so. I fancy the Vikings (even with their marginally better passing options), to take advantage here and grab the win.
The spread just sweetens the pot.
Vikings +4.5 (and to win)
Jaguars @ Texans -10
The Texans lost out last week to the Raiders, and the shine seems to be wearing thin on Case Keenum already. It was definitely the wrong decision to pull him in favour of Schaub last week, no matter how inaccurate he was. At this point you are trying to evaluate whether the kid is worth sticking with or whether you have to go all out in the draft for a new QB. I like Case to find his rhythm once more against a struggling (but gradually improving) visiting Jax.
10 points is too much for me.
Jaguars +10 (Texans to win)
Panthers @ Dolphins +4.5
Despite the Dolphins' victory over San Diego I see Carolina as clear favourites here. Yes they got lucky on that final play versus the Pats, but they are still an extremely strong team. A dominant defensive front plus the particular skills of Cam make for a dangerous cocktail. I like them to take down the Phins comfortably.
4.5 isn't enough to sway me here.
Panthers -4.5
Bears @ Rams -1
With Jay Cutler out this becomes yet another back QB bowl. Then question becomes A. who has the better running game and B. who's defence is more likely to force an inexperienced passer into mistakes. I think the Rams edge this, especially in the latter category. I'm expecting a tight game but one I think St. Louis could nick at home.
The spread changes nothing.
Rams -1
Sunday Second Wave
Colts @ Cardinals -1
This should be an intriguing game, with the Colts travelling to Arizona. Make no mistake these are two good teams playing, and the Cardinals will make life very difficult for Luck and co. That said, it's hard to bet against Indy when they are some proficient at come from behind victories. Whilst the match up is not great I think they have enough quality to scrape one.
Colts +1 (and to win)
Titans @ Raiders -1
Interesting call here, as the Titans have struggled somewhat since Locker went out, but are still a strong team. The Raiders meanwhile impressed in their win over Houston, particularly Rashad Jennings' bruising running and the surprisingly effective Matt McGloin under centre. This really good go either way, but I'll err with who I think are the better team.
Titans +1 (and to win)
Cowboys @ Giants -1 Sky Sports 3
The Giants are back on track, but it's probably far too little too late even in the torrid NFC East. The Cowboys will look to bounce back following their bye week and preceeding beat down by NO, and what better way to do it than in what is always a heated divisional encounter. I like the 'Boys to win this one.
The extra point does little except tell me I'm in the slight minority.
Cowboys +1 (and to win)
Chargers @ Chiefs -5
Another heartbreakingly narrow loss for SD at the weekend (no team has lost more 1 score games this season), and things won't get any easier with a trip to rivals Kansas City in the pipe. The Chiefs showed their flaws in their game in Denver, namely an offence not up to matching scores with the most explosive in the league. Can Rivers and the Chargers put up enough points on a stingy Chiefs' defense to take this one? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.
The spread swings this for me, San Diego have been ultra competitive in all their losses, and there's no reason to think they'll throw this one away by a larger margin.
Chargers +5 (Chiefs to win)
Sunday Night
Broncos @ Patriots +1
Marquee match up and what should be another great one in the Brady/Manning rivalry. With the Broncos firing on all cylinders I think this is an easy call in terms of the result, even in Foxboro. Having said that, it is still anyone's game and you never count the Pats out.
Broncos -1
Monday Night
49ers @ Redskins +5
The Redskins' season is effectively over whereas the 49ers are fighting to keep hold of a wild card berth. With both teams underperforming I still like the Niners to grab this. Their defense should be an extra test for a still sub-par RG3 (compared to his standards last year) and the Skins soft underbelly that is their pass defense is exactly what Kaep needs to get back on track.
The spread is large enough to give me cause for concern, but I think the Niners should cover.
49ers -5
Wednesday, 13 November 2013
Beating the Bookies 2013/14: Week 11
Back to back shockers at 7-7 outright and a paltry 5-8 on the spread (putting me into negative numbers on the season!!). This is the stuff nightmares are made of, with Tampa canning my SFBOTW convincingly the rotten cherry on top of this particularly rancid cake.
Still, onwards and upwards, and this weeks' games are a much more respectable bunch, on the face of it.
Week 10:
Outright = 7-7
Spread = 5-8
SFBOTW = 0-1
2013/14:
Outright = 94-54
Spread = 71-73-4
SFBOTW = 6-4
Animal Corner = 3-1
All Time:
Outright = 260-145
Spread = 211-187-7
SFBOTW = 14-12-1
Animal Corner = 7-3-1
Thursday Night
Colts @ Titans +2.5 Sky Sports 2
A pretty decent Thursday night match up, even if I thought there was no chance both these two would be coming into this one on a loss. I like the Titans, but even after last week's shellecking by St. Louis the Colts should expect to win here, especially with Locker out and (the not bad at all as back ups go) Fitzpatrick stepping in. The Titans are at home, and should improve from their ugly loss to Jacksonville, but I still think they'll struggle to win in this one.
The spread is easily small enough to double down on Indy.
Colts -2.5
Sunday First Wave
Jets @ Bills -1
What looks to be another closely contested affair in this AFC East dog fight. The Bills were less than impressive against the Steelers, even with EJ Manuel back in charge, but their ground game does seem to be getting its legs back with Spiller finally healthy. Unfortunately for CJ and co. they face one of the toughest run defences in the league, with the Jets' brutal defensive line sure to make life a misery for Buffalo despite them holding the home field. Most games are won and lost in the trenches, and this will be no different.
A slight swing towards the Jets just sweetens the deal.
Jets +1 (and to win)
Ravens @ Bears -2.5
What should be another tight one with the Culter-less Bears hosting the Ravens, fresh off a divisional win over the Bengals. I'm torn here, as on the one hand the Bears are minus their QB1, but on the other they are at home and playing a Ravens side that does not typically travel well.
The spread makes what is a relatively tough decision rather easy.
Ravens +2.5 (and to win)
Browns @ Bengals -5.5 Sky Sports 2
Cleveland are fresh off a bye, Cincy are fresh off an ugly loss to Baltimore. As much as they are wildly inconsistent, I can't see the hosts dropping back to back divisional games, especially against the Browns, who despite a great defence are consistently hamstrung by below average QB play and a toothless offence.
The spread is large but I feel pretty comfortable that they can win by a score, even if most Bengals fans (don't go to bed just yet) will probably disagree.
Bengals -5.5
Raiders @ Texans -7.5
Oakland have fallen off the pace a bit in recent weeks, with Pryor losing some of his gloss and the cracks are beginning to show (as you would expect from an already threadbare roster that is ravaged by key injuries). Houston meanwhile may have found their QB of the future, or at least someone who is worthy of having a crack at the job, in Case Keenum, but are not exactly in a great spot with Arian Foster done for the year and his back up Ben Tate playing through a handful of broken ribs. I think they'll have enough to beat Oakland at home, but I don't expect to see them challenging over a play off berth come December.
This spread is a very attractive one, and I definitely think the Raiders are capable of covering.
Raiders +7.5 (Texans win)
Cardinals @Jaguars +6.5
Let's here it for the Jacksonville Jaguars. A gritty win over a divisional foe is just what this team needed after languishing at the bottom of the NFL all year. Unfortunately they have the Cardinals visiting for an encore, who themselves just saw off the Texans are who's elite defence will make life a misery for the rag tag offence plying it's trade in Jacksonville Florida professional football is not where it is at, right now.
At under a score this should be a cake walk for Arizona, and one I'll be targeting heavily.
Cardinals -6.5 SFBOTW
Redskins @ Eagles -3.5
Very interesting match up with two soft as butter pass defences going up against the in form Nick Foles and the always dangerous RG3. This is a game that I feel could go either way, and being a divisional encounter adds an extra element of uncertainty and tension. The Redskins need to win here to keep their slim playoff dream alive, but I think the Eagles will come through at home and edge a close game. Foles is not as good as he has looked the last couple of weeks, but even at half speed they could score enough on this defence to seal the deal.
I'll hedge my bets and take the spread here, as it could well be a close fought thing.
Redskins +3.5 (Eagles to win)
Lions @ Steelers +1
Pittsburgh seem to have sailed out of the worst of it, but Big Ben's rumoured wanderlust is as concerning as it is surprising for Steelers' faithful. Detroit are finally finding their legs this season and seem to be putting their potential into practice (coincidentally coinciding with Jim Schwartz's super rad makeover?). I like them to grab a win here by narrow margins, fresh off the bye.
The spread doesn't change much.
Lions -1
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| This is not a man you would trust your kids with. |
Falcons @ Buccaneers -1
Bargain basement NFC South match up between two teams that were supposed to be far, far better than they have been. The Falcons lost out to Seattle, whereas Tampa ambushed a dizzy Dolphins squad. Those results aside, I'd still expect Atlanta to win here - the Buccs are paper thin at RB having now lost Mike James for the season in addition to Doug Martin.
Falcons +1 (and to win)
49ers @ Saints -3.5 Sky Sports 2
A very interesting match up, with the Saints fresh off a demolition of Dallas, and SF coming off a narrow home loss to Carolina. The gulf between these two is much closer to the latter performance, but it is still a game I'd expect New Orleans to win at home judging by current form.
The spread is very doable, if you can get it down to 3 do so though.
Saints -3.5
Chargers @ Dolphins +1
Another loss by a score or less for SD, who have yet to lose a game by more than 8 points this season. That said, they've still lost 5 so far, so it will come as a relief that they get to use up a tough East coast trip to the most dysfunctional team in the league (I think the Buccs managed to pass the curse on), the Miami Dolphins. Whilst they still have talent, I don't see the game breakers that are going to put up enough points to keep pace with Rivers, and a Chargers D that has been hit and miss this season should have a good day versus the Dolphins weapons.
At -1 I'm loving this spread.
Chargers -1
Vikings @ Seahawks -13.5
This should be a very one sided affair, the highlight being Percy Harvin's likely return against the team that traded him. However it will also be interesting to see if Seattle's pass protection can improve, and whether they can get back to the kind of form we are used to after last week's scarily close call versus Tampa.
The spread turns this from an easy call to a very difficult one, but I'm going to err on the side of caution and take the points until I'm sold Seattle are back to their best.
Vikings +13.5 (Seahawks win)
Packers @ Giants -6
What should be another tight one with the Rodger-less Packers hoping to grab a win over the languishing Giants. They will have to travel though, and their lack of a starting QB puts them in a difficult position against Eli and the Giants, who whilst terrible this season usually save their best for this kind of game. They've had their number in the past, I don't expect that to change now with Rodgers out, nor do I expect Flynn to come close to his previous Packer performances.
The spread makes this difficult for me, I'll think I'll err on the side of caution though.
Packers +6 (Giants to win)
Sunday Second Wave
Chiefs @ Broncos -9.5
The game of the week between the two best teams in the league right now, yes the Chiefs have played a soft schedule, but Denver's hasn't been much harder. At home I expect the Broncos to win here, but how much Manning's bum ankle troubles him will be key. This will be the greatest test for a so far extremely impressive defence, if they can harry Manning enough they stand a good chance of winning, but I still have to side with Denver to grab the W here.
9.5 is a huge spread, I'm all over the Chiefs at anything close to this.
Chiefs +9.5 (Broncos win)
Sunday Night
Patriots @ Panthers -1
This should be a cracking match up, with one of the best front 7s in football matching up against a Patriots side that should finally have all it's weapons back in play. I like Carolina to pull off the win here, they should dominate up front and make life very difficult for Brady.
The spread is negligible, so I'll stick with it.
Panthers -1
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