Beating the Bookies: Week 7

Maybe my worst week yet (but bizarrely personally my most profitable) sees my overalls take another nasty hit. You should probably start betting against whatever I predict at this point. 

Week 5:

Outright: 5/14

Spread: 5/14

SFBOTW: 0/1

Overall:

Outright - 39/91

Spread - 41/91

SFBOTW - 2/6

Seahawks @ 49ers -7.5

This is awkward.

You have to like the points in this NFC West showdown. Whilst I except San Fran to play a lot better and Seattle to play a bit worse they should still make a game of it in primetime.

Seahawks +7.5 (49ers win)

Titans @ Bills -3

I'm going to go with the visitors here. Both teams are pretty poor but coming off upset wins, so it could go either way.

Titans +3 (and to win)

Cowboys @ Panthers +1

This is another evenly matched game between two teams who think they are a lot better than they are. I'll take the homefield and the points even though I probably shouldn't.

Panthers +1 (and to win)

Ravens @ Texans -6

I would have been all over the Ravens at these odds before they lost their two defensive lynch pins in Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb (making it 3 of their 5 best defenders out of the year). As such I'll shy away from this one where money is concerned but let's say the Texans for the sake of it.

Texans -6 (and to win)

What beautiful triceps you had Mr. Lewis.

Browns @ Colts -3

Winning a game is not something the Browns are used to handling. I'm gonna say they are still in shock and will be 3 scores down by the second quarter.

Colts -3 

I'd let him make me aware of breast cancer.

Cardinals @ Vikings -6

A very nice match-up between two teams with great defences. Kolb should find Jared Allen introducing him to ground a fair bit, but the Cards are the masters of the close game finish so I'll pick them to beat a healthy spread.

Cardinals +6 (Vikings to win)

Redskins @ Giants -6.5

As I'll be there trying to get RG3 to give me his phone number I'll call the big upset here.

Redskins +6.5 (and to win)

Packers @ Rams +5

St. Louis have been good at home, but not good enough to beat the Packers whilst still missing their best receiver. 

Packers -5

It'll be St. Louis' turn at free-fall come Sunday

Doing his best Matt Cassell impression.

Saints @ Buccs +2.5

Vegas may still think the Saints are rudderless, but I do not. SFBOTW time! (I'm aware that my sure fire bets have not been firing lately, and I vow never to trust the Bengals ever again).

Saints -2.5 SFBOTW!!!!

Correctly identifying the end zone for the 1st time since week 1.

Jets @ Patriots -10.5

It's a big spread with NY coming off a healthy win and the Pats off a demoralising (not to mention physical) loss. I'll take it, but wouldn't be surprised if the Pats send a statement.

Jets +10.5 (Pats to win)

The legion of boom showing how it is done.

Anyone would be shocked at losing to the Titans.

Jaguars @ Raiders -4

This will be an ugly game for the neutrals, and whilst it could be close I like the Raiders to overwhelm Jacksonville in a hostile environment.

Raiders -4

Steelers @ Bengals +1

Very tempting odds here, both teams coming off bad losses to underdogs. I like Pittsburgh to have the toughness to bounce back.

Steelers -1

Lions @ Bears -5.5

Chicago should be rested up and ready coming off their bye. I can see Megatron having a big day vs a smaller secondary, but the Bears are the better team.

Bears -5.5 

*All odds accurate as of 16/10/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App.*

Beating the Bookies: Week 6

A decent week outright but a bad showing on the spread leaves me with some ground to make up on this week. As we move forward Vegas seems to have toughened up as it's a hard set to call this time (or maybe I'm just realising that my perceptions of teams are stupid).

Week 5:

Outright: 9/14

Spread: 5/14

SFBOTW: 0/1

Season:

Outright: 34/77

Spread: 36/77

SFBOTW: 2/5

Steelers @ Titans +5.5

For some reason I'm smelling a close game here. It could well be a blow out, but I'll go with my gut.

Titans +5.5 (Steelers win)

Says a lot when losing a leg is the 2nd worst injury in a game.

Raiders @ Falcons -9.5

I'm fairly confident the Falcons can win this one by two scores, even if the Raiders are rested up off their bye. 

Falcons -9.5

Cowboys @ Ravens -3.5

Romo will probably ball out this week, but you have to like the Ravens at these odds. Might have been my SFBOTW if they hadn't let me down against the Chiefs.

Ravens -3.5

Bullying is unacceptable in the modern day workplace.

Bengals @ Browns +1

I feel like the bookies are giving the Browns a little too much credit here. Yeah it could well be close, but with a practically negligible spread I'm going Cincy all day.

Bengals -1 SFBOTW

Rams @ Dolphins -3.5

Very interesting one here. Losing Amendola is a big blow for the Rams, but they still have an AWESOME kicker. Am I right? 

Rams +3.5 (and to win)

Colts @ Jets -3

I fancy to Jets to scrape a result here, but I don't see them as 3 point favourites by any means. I'll trust my Luck on this one (I'm surprised that's taken me to week 6 to use to be honest).

Colts + 3 (Jets to win)

Lions @ Eagles -4.5

"Just pretend you can't hear those nasty boys, Matt."

Should be pretty clear cut if Philly can avoid a melt down. The Lions have pretty dire this year, all things considered.

Eagles -4.5

Chiefs @ Buccs -3.5

Could go either way but I see the Buccs as having a very slight edge. 

Buccs -3.5

Bills @ Cardinals -4.5

This really should be no contest based on form, but the Cards are the classic case of a team that struggles against shitty teams then dominates the good ones. In truth though this is their game to lose. 

Cards -4.5

Patriots @ Seahawks +3.5

Very nice match-up, with Brady facing the defensive line that made Rodgers' life a misery a couple of weeks ago. I fancy the Pats to grab a result, but not by much more than the spread.

Patriots -3.5

NY are going to be a different sort of upside down come Sunday

Giants @ 49ers -5

This game should be awesome, and I'm taking the Niners all day over NYG. Revenge is a dish best served soon, and this game couldn't come soon enough for San Fran who should go out fired up.

49ers -5 

Vikings @ Redskins -1.5

A potentially Cousins led Redskins is a risky proposition, so I'll side with the safe solid bet and take the Vikes.

Vikings +1.5 (and to win)

Packers @ Texans -3.5

Another great game lined up. Losing Cushing for the year is a big blow, and the Packers are a cut above anyone the Texans have faced so far. 

Packers +3.5 (and to win)

A loss here could put the Packers' season on the cart.

Broncos @ Chargers -1

A crucial divisional match-up - I like SD on home turf, but this could really go either way. Hopefully Rivers can be the same thorn in Manning's side in his new outfit that he was in Indy. 

Chargers -1

Beating the Bookies: Week 5

A return to normality for the NFL after the craziness of week 4, and with it a solid 2/3 games called correctly, plus over half the spread. It’ll take a lot more of that to get me back to respectability (and profit).

Week 4:

Outright: 11/15

Spread: 8/15

SFBOTW: 1/1

Season:

Outright: 34/63

Spread: 31/63

SFBOTW: 2/4

Cardinals @ Rams +1

This game will be hairier than Jeff's mustache. Could go either way as the Rams have been a force at home. 

Cardinals -1 

Dolphins @ Bengals -4

Cincy have been pretty predictable so far and I can't see them slipping up at home to poor opposition. However a weakened secondary could struggle vs NFL leading receiver Brian Hartline (yep, you heard it right).

Bengals -4 

This scrappy route runner has a high motor and his intangibles are off the charts. 

Packers @ Colts +7

GB should win, but I like the Colts to run them close in an emotional game for the home side.

Colts +7 (Packers to win)

Ravens @ Chiefs +5

Baltimore should soar past the Chiefs. If you are routed by Philip Rivers you should probably just give up and apply for membership in the LFL.

I wish we lived in ancient Sparta

Ravens -5 SFBOTW

Browns @ Giants -9.5

This one could get uglier than a baby Manning. It's a big spread though, and given how close they pushed the Ravens I'll take the points.

Browns +9.5 (Giants to win)

Eagles @ Steelers -3.5

The Eagles have not travelled well so far, and a trip to the Steel City against a rested up Pittsburgh is the stuff nightmares are made of.

Steelers -3.5

Falcons @ Redskins +3

You have to like Atlanta to beat the Skins even though they've both been playing well. 3 points is not a lot in a game that should light up the scoreboard.

Falcons -3

Seahawks @ Panthers -3

Is there some magic voodoo juice in the drinking water in Seattle? A team that was dominated two good teams at home turns into a shivering wreck when made to play away. Unfortunately for the Hawks both those losses were divisional, and I can't see the record getting changed here.

Panthers -3

Bears @ Jaguars +6

Such backward franchises. Planking was so 2011. 

Not a very big spread considering the way these two teams played last week. I have big question marks over Chicago this year, but less than a TD vs the Jags? Come on now...

Bears -6

Titans @ Vikings -6

The Vikings will win this football game, but I'm not wholly convinced they'll win it by 6 points. Still, I'd go with Ponder and AP over Hasslebeck and CJ.

Vikings -6

Broncos @ Patriots -6.5

Manning vs Brady in a game that definitely won't settle the which overrated QB is the best debate. Still, it should be fun to watch. I hope they both get sacked 10 times. 

Broncos +6.5 (Patriots to win)

Two very different masturbation techniques.

Bills @ 49ers -9.5

It's a large spread, and it should be. The Bills are going to get steamrollered. I feel quite confident the Niners will beat them by two scores.

One time Charger, long time man-crush.

49ers -9.5

Chargers @ Saints -3.5

Yep, I'll take the spread when a 3-1 team plays a 4-0 team and still has the handicap. The Saints aren't nearly as bad as their record suggests so it should be a close one.

Chargers +3.5 (and to win)

Texans @ Jets +9

Houston's running game is going to ride rough-shod over a Jets' team well and truley on the rocks. First Revis, now Holmes. Fuck it, may as well jump everyone to it by a week: 

"Teeeeeeboooowww. Teeeeeeeeeeebooowww. Teeeebbbooowwwww." Only you can save this team from a pathetic losing season. They'll still lose with him, but at least they'll have the moral high ground. 

Texans -9

He'll save your souls but not your football team.

*All odds accurate as of 03/10/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App.*

NFL - No Formalities League

With Week 3 of the 2012 NFL season in the books it is once again clear that the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's unpredictable. The Patriots, Steelers, Lions and Packers all sit at 1-2 (I won't get into officiating here as what's happened has happened and going down the "what if?" road is always a dangerous endeavour), the Saints are 0-3, the Vikings are 2-1 and perhaps most shockingly the Cardinals sit at 3-0. The season is young and we've seen plenty of teams throw away good starts and many others recover from a stumble out of the blocks, but these first three weeks have provided further indication that for all the preseason prognostication on TV shows and websites, there's still very little you can count on from year to year in the NFL. I'm going to try and explore why.

Sample Size

Not to get too enamoured with the numbers here, but any statistician will tell you that for the best results  in trying to read into any group of numbers you want a larger sample size, and in trying to determine which NFL teams are best we are working with the smallest number of games in major professional sport. Sixteen games is small enough to be significantly swayed by random chance (a bounce on an onside kick, a bad call from a referee, a particularly bad injury to a star player, etc). Baseball is the most statistically driven sport there is, and a large part of that is because of the sheer number of games played - a 162 game season allows for statistical trends to play out properly and you get a real idea of who the best and worst are. The Super Bowl champion is nearly always a team that gets hot late, rather than the best team over the sixteen game stretch. A longer season might see these teams flame out, or maybe they were ascending to their proper peak. We don't know, and for that reason it's hard to read too much into straight wins and losses from year to year. For more NFL discussion of this ilk, read the excellent work of Bill Barnwell at Grantland.

Turnover

Every year NFL squads see a large amount of roster turnover, often extending into the coaching ranks too. Of a 53 man roster, teams might expect to lose between a third to a half of these players over an offseason cycle. This affects the extent to which teams can prepare for certain likelihoods or personnel match ups, but also adds unpredictability in that certain players may play well in one situation and not in another, or vice versa. For every high profile free agent move that pays off, there are about five that don't. Not to mention the in built parity measure that is the draft, allowing bad teams to make a great leap from one year to the next, be it with a transcendent player or a good class. Furthermore, all it takes is one or two big whiffs in the draft to set a team back for a year or two. No-one knows who these players will be on draft day (see Quinn, Brady), but they inevitably happen every year.

Ideology

Strategy and ideology in the NFL is perhaps more cyclical than in any other major league. The talent level in the NFL is so high across the board that coaches are constantly searching for any new wrinkle that might give their team an edge. Last season saw the read option attack raise it's head in flashes in Carolina and Denver. Both these teams went from poor predictions to playoff potential, with the Broncos even dispatching the Steelers in January. However, given the small number of games played each year and the 5 month season/7 month off-season ratio, these same coaches have an inordinate amount of time to study how to stop these same innovations. Cam Newton is already struggling to reproduce last year's stunning numbers and though Tebow has been traded, his new coaching staff are hesitant to plug him in to run what was such a devastating wrinkle last season - both for the same reason: the opposition is better prepared for it. The same phenomenon occurred when the Dolphins started running their "wildcat" offense. It caught teams off guard and Miami made the playoffs that year, but by the next season it was just another set of plays that the opposition was ready to defend. Devin Hester's unprecedented impact as a kick returner was also quickly neutralised when teams worked out they don't have to kick it to him every time. Any new gimmick or gadget is solved quickly - you get this dual phenomenon of teams trying to innovate but also trying to stamp out innovation at the same time. College football has such a wide array of different offenses partly because teams face so many different teams over the span of a few years that it would be impossible to be completely prepared for every opponent, though the thinner talent pool and the amount of time coaches have to devote to recruiting also play an important role.

The unpredictability of the NFL is what makes it one of the best sports leagues to follow in the world. As a fan of the Premier League despite it's hegemony, it is often a breathe of fresh air that "on any given Sunday" I might witness upsets no one expected, and that every year the champion could be a team no one saw coming the summer before.

Beating the Bookies: Week 4

Last week was not a good one to be predicting results with upsets all over the board. 

Whilst the Vikings handling the 49ers may be the most attention grabbing, the Chiefs putting the Saints to 0-3 and the Lions failing to beat the Titans despite some late game heroics made for a crazy crazy week in the NFL. Not only that but the Raiders decided they would stop getting flagged every other down and beat the Steelers (and my SFBOTW!). 

All in all it meant my record has taken a nasty hit. Have I lost all credibility? Did I have any to begin with? Read on to find out. 

Week 3:

Outright: 6/16

Spread: 5/16

SFBOTW: 0/1

Season:

Outright: 23/48

Spread: 23/48

SFBOTW: 1/3

Browns @ Ravens -13

Putting football in perspective.

Big 'ol spread here, but one of the very worst playing the very best (plus homefield). Have to think this will be a blow out of epic proportions.

Ravens -13 

Patriots @ Bills +3.5

You have to like these odds, the Patriots narrowly lost to an extremely well polished Ravens side (spurred on by an emotional Torrey Smith performance), whereas the Bills are now down to their 3rd choice RB.

I like Belichick to stop the rot and make a statement against their divisional rivals here. 

Patriots -3.5 SFBOTW!

49ers @ Jets +4

The 49ers hit a major roadblock against an impressive Ponder led performance on Sunday - I bank on them recovering in time for this juicy inter-conference match-up between two hard hitting defences and questioned offences. 

Losing Revis for the year to an ACL is a huge blow (and just one of many big injuries last week), so I've got to side with the Niners.

49ers -3.5 

Seahawks @ Rams +3

Monday night's performance was impressive if ruined by flags. However there is still the nag that Seattle don't perform well away from home or against easier opposition. Despite those misgivings I'll go with the Hawks - just don't expect any sort of blow out.

Seattle -3

Panthers @ Falcons -9

The Falcons are hotter than Hansel, having taken down 3 AFC West contenders in as many weeks. This is a team that barring an injury can go all the way, boasting a deadly offence complemented by a turnover hungry D.

Matt Ryan, so hot right now.

The Panthers meanwhile are 1-2, and in something of a crisis. A 9 point margin makes this a difficult one to call, especially as we haven't seen Atlanta's defence face a mobile QB yet, but I'll side with the Falcons to squeeze the spread.

Falcons -9

Vikings @ Lions -4

The lions have been disappointing so far – whereas the Vikings have performed above expectations – shocking San Francisco last week.

However, I still think the Lions at home have the upper hand in this one, Megatron is due a big game, and my gut tells me to stick with Detroit.

Lions -4

Chargers @ Chiefs +1

Jackie Battle (now a Bolt) tearing up SD in the 2011 game.

A vintage 2011 Chargers performance, complete with Rivers' favourite trick play: the 'throw the ball out of bounds interception'. Guess where we last saw that play? That's right, Chargers @ Chiefs.

I have to hope that the Falcons were just that good, and a turnover ridden performance can be learned from in time to win a crucial divisional game. 

Seeing as the Chargers have kindly done whatever I've told them to so far, I'll take them again.

Chargers -1

Titans @ Texans -12

Houston are vying with Atlanta for my best team in the league gold sticker. Seeing off the Broncos showed they could do it against a better quality of opposition. 

The Titans shouldn't be too much of a test at home, but 12 points is a huge margin to need a win by. Despite that, I've got to back my gut and think they will continue to lay down the standard for the league. 

Contract hold-outs slow down lesser backs.

Texans -12

Bengals @ Jaguars +1

The Bengals just took down the Redskins at home in another enthralling game (win or lose RG3ver always excites).

The Jaguars just beat the Colts.

Decide for yourself which of those two things is more impressive.

Bengals -1 

Raiders @ Broncos -6

I'm as shocked as anyone that the Raiders managed a result against Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean they are going to put together back to back wins, least of all at the mile high. 

Broncos -6

Dolphins @ Cardinals -6

The Cardinals are 3-0.

I'll let that sink in for a moment.

Nor has it been an easy ride with wins over Seattle, New England and Philadelphia. The Dolphins meanwhile are battling with a close OT loss to the Jets last week, but still just the one W over Oakland.

I have to go with the undefeated side to notch up another win, and I think they can do it by the spread.

Cardinals -6

Redskins @ Buccaneers -3

Where is the solid Redskins defence we heard so much about? If they could step it up a bit and give RG3 some help the Skins could well be 3-0. As it is, it's a fact of a football that the better your offence plays the more pressure your defence is subjected to. 

I've got to continue with my Griffin love-in and take the points here - surely London Fletcher and co. can hold down Josh Freeman's offence just enough for Robert to work his magic.

Redskins +3 (and to win)

Raise your hands if these refs suck.

Saints @ Packers -7.5

That is a large spread, and a mark of how far NO have fallen this year. Green Bay meanwhile will be hungry to avenge their unjust loss at the hands of some diabolical officiating.

However, the Saints despite being 0-3 have the kind of ability that at any point could rear up and grab a game by the throat, and certainly have the fire power to keep pace with Rodgers and co.

Saints +7.5 (GB to win)

Giants @ Eagles -1 

My mouth is watering for this Sunday late game. Two fierce rivals, both 2-1, both with everything to prove (whether it's the pressure to repeat or just to perform).

I'm not sure whether this game will even be close, let alone who will win it. Giants have been the more impressive team in general this year, so I'll go with them.

Giants +1 (and to win)

Bears @ Cowboys -3.5

Another interesting Monday night match-up. Two teams that are quite similar in my mind, both with huge fan expectations on their shoulders, both with talent at key positions, both with QBs liable to have meltdowns, both with play making defences.

You would think Ware should be able to cause havoc on Chicago's porous o-line, and the Cowboys' CB paring of Claiborne and Carr are one of the most promising in the league. From a match-up perspective I'll take the home side.

Cowboys -3.5 

Beating the Bookies: Week 3

Another mixed bag last week, but I improved slightly. Couple of upset calls I'm very pleased with, and a couple of favourites that stalled on spread winning drives. This week I'll call them all for sure...

Week 2:

Spread: 10/16
Outright: 10/16
SBOFTW: 0/1

Season:

Spread: 17/32
Outright: 17/32
SBOFTW: 1/2

Giants -1 @ Panthers

Looking at a common opponent, the Buccs beat the Panthers but fell to a late Giants surge. However, Carolina have the home field advantage and just saw off the Saints. A tough one so I'm going to stick with personal bias.

Panthers +1 (and to win)

Rams +9 @ Bears

Cortland is a bad man and deserves everything he gets. 

Will Chicago ever solve it's O-line issues? I hope so, because Cutler's whining is even more annoying than the Rams spoiling RGIII's fairy tale rookie season.

St Louis did well @ Detroit, so it's not an unfair assumption to say they will hold the own against another NFC North offence that revolves around one big play maker. It's a big spread so I'll take the points.

Having said that, I really really hope Brandon Marshall destroys Finnegan à la Andre. 

Rams +9 (Bears win)

Bills -3 @ Browns

The Bills have been bipolar in their first two, so it's a bit risky as to whether you'll get a good performance this week. You know what's even more risky? Betting on Cleveland.

Bills -3 

Watch Eli scuttle.

Buccs +7 @ Cowboys

Difficult one to call, the Buccs almost had the better of big blue with a similar spread, so I will reservedly go with them again. 

The Cowboys will certainly be wary about trying to kneel out any lead.

Buccs +7 

Jags @ Colts -3

Both having played the Vikings gives us another common opponent insight. I see the Colts going 2-1 and the Jags falling to 0-3 despite having played better than I anticipated prior to the pre-season.

Home field is key in this. -3 isn't too much of a stretch.

Colts -3

Jets -3 @ Dolphins

Both are 1-1 going into this AFC East rivalry match up. Don't let that fool you though, NY are by far the better outfit. 

Reggie had a nice day vs the Raiders, but the Jets' strong run defence should handle him.

8000000-1 that Tebow is caught banging L. Tannehill post game. 

Jets -3 

49ers -7 @ Vikings

I can't think of any reason why the Vikings are in with a shot in this one. The 49ers have been hot so far, and this shouldn't prove a stumbling block. They should just scrape the spread with a top tier run defence holding AP in check.

49ers -7

Chiefs +9 @ Saints

Again, who would have predicted these two would be 0-2? The Chiefs were a lot of experts' surprise package and the Saints are perennial playoff contenders.This is why the NFL is great. 

Both sides have been extremely disappointing thus far and at some point NO are going to kick into gear and show big Rog what's up, but 9 points is a healthy enough margin for me to side with KC.

Chiefs +9

Lions -3 @ Titans

The Titans have not performed well out the gate, and as much as would love to credit last weeks loss to SD being awesome, giving up 3 TDs to Dante Rosario is not the sign of a air tight defence (look for Brandon Pettigrew to have a big day).

Add to this a faltering offence and all signs point to a W for Detriot.  

Lions -3

See Greg to look this fly.

Bengals +4 @ Redskins

I'll confess, I've been stricken hard with RG3ver. It doesn't help that he's my fantasy QB1, or that if it wasn't for Josh Morgan being a massive d-bag I'd likely be 2/2 in my SFBOTWs right now. 

Whatever the case, until this kid starts looking like a rookie I'm not going to bet against him.

Skins -4

Eagles -4 @ Cardinals 

Who would have predicted these two would be 2-0 going into this match up? 

The Eagles have been riding their luck hard for their two wins whereas the Cards have looked far greater than the sum of their parts. I have to go with the more talented squad where gambling is concerned, but I would love to see the Cards go 3-0 and stick it to all the naysayers (of which I was definitely one).

Eagles -4

Falcons @ Chargers -3

Going with head over heart and taking the Falcons in this contest, though Gates and Mathews looking like being back should keep it close. 

Atlanta have played the tougher opposition for their 2 wins, and will probably see off both AFC West title contenders back to back. 

Falcons +3 (and to win)

Texans @ Broncos +1.5

Manning looked rough at Atlanta - real rough. There were some very questionable throws into heavy coverage which resulted in 3 picks, and you can't blame any surgery for that.

People tend to forgot Peyton was throwing a fair few picks prior to getting injured, and that the Broncos team was not doing at all well last year before Tebow rejuvenated them.

The Texans on the other hand are backing up their pre-season hype and are 2-0 (albeit over two sorry teams). I like them to come in and snatch a victory here.

Texans -1.5

Glancing nervously around for witnesses. 

Steelers -4.5 @ Raiders

The Raiders have been just terrible this year. When you are getting pushed around by the Dolphins you know something is up. Even a home advantage won't save Oakland from a drubbing when the steel curtain falls this Sunday. 

On a side note, the Raiders will see something of a kindred spirit in Big Ben - in that he is a dirty rapist criminal thug. 

If only the Dark Knight Rises football scene could actually happen during this game... not only would it solve America's future prison crowding, but Oakland might finally get a decent field laid down.  

Steelers -4.5 SFBOTW!

Patriots +3 @ Ravens

Rematch of the 2011/12 AFC Champ game, minus Billy Cundiff. 

Whenever you see the Patriots being given a handicap you know something is weird in the NFL, and judging by how close games between these two usually are I'll snap the points up.

Patriots +3 (and to win)

Packers -3.5 @ Seahawks

Let's not confuse a win over the Cowboys as being a sign of a championship team. I like the Hawks but can't see past the Pack even with the 12th man and blocks like that.

Packers -3.5

*All odds accurate as of 18/09/2012 via Yahoo's 'Sportacular' App*